Interesting video and perspective

[Sublovin]

I found this video quite interesting, especially coming from a guy who makes a large part of his living selling modern watches. I have to say that generally speaking, I agree. I have said here time and time again that when you try too hard to make something collectible, it usually fails. What is going on right now with watches reminds me of the 1990’s with baseball cards. The reason the cards from the early 1900’s up to 1970’s are valuable, is that nobody cared about them and kept them in “mint” condition. By the time the 1990’s came around, people bought into the hype and started buying everything they could find and kept it in untouched condition. You used to be able to buy a pack of cards for .50 cents and sell the individual cards for 5 times that. In retrospect, it didn’t make a lot of sense, and fast forward those cards are pretty much worthless.
Now, I feel that modern Rolex are superior in quality to the old stuff, and I really like them, but steel BLRO selling for almost $20,000? Sorry, it just doesn’t make sense. Too many people are in the game now just for the investment and chase. New watches are being stored away untouched in safes, with people thinking they are going to pay for college. That usually doesn’t end well....sports cards, beanie babies, etc.



https://youtu.be/v74bKA_Z7Qc

[Art 1]

I agree. At some point the market will be flooded with newer condition watches. And when the world economy goes down there will be less buyers. Just the opposite of now.

[Rocketman39]

Hit the Nail squarely on the head. This is exactly what is happening !IMHO

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Rocketman39

Hit the Nail squarely on the head. This is exactly what is happening !IMHO

Seems like it. You can’t “manufacture” collectibility in unlimited quantities. These are still being produced, and are not limited editions, so it just makes you wonder.

[Lemonvr6]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Seems like it. You can’t “manufacture” collectibility in unlimited quantities. These are still being produced, and are not limited editions, so it just makes you wonder.

Hermès begs to differ, but whatever makes you think you are right

[grymg]

I agree with the premise (heck I owned so many Ken Griffey Jr. rookies, can't believe they aren't worth anything now!), but watches are arguably much different than beanie babies, ball cards, pogs, etc. They are high end, fashionable, wearable, almost timeless and ageless pieces that can be appreciated by almost everyone.

[Sublovin]

^^I year ya on the Griffey Jr rookies!
Not sure about very one appreciating watches...most people think we must be crazy!

[Solo118]

Still upset all of my cards are worthless. Rolex on the other hand will always be worth “something”

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

......That usually doesn’t end well....sports cards, beanie babies, etc.



https://youtu.be/v74bKA_Z7Qc

Sports card expert here. I dont agree with the comparison of sports cards to Rolex Watches.

For instance, when sports cards were hot, the card companies had the presses running day and night. Rolex doesnt do that with their production of watches.

Finally you would be hard pressed to find a common Submariner from the 80s or 90s selling below its MSRP at the time it was sold. This wont be true with 95% of sports cards. in 2016 Yasiel Puig was the hot card, I really doubt his card is selling for more now than in 2016.

Rolex watches are NOT like sports cards.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by uhren917

Sports card expert here. I dont agree with the comparison of sports cards to Rolex Watches.

For instance, when sports cards were hot, the card companies had the presses running day and night. Rolex doesnt do that with their production of watches.

Finally you would be hard pressed to find a common Submariner from the 80s or 90s selling below its MSRP at the time it was sold. This wont be true with 95% of sports cards. in 2016 Yasiel Puig was the hot card, I really doubt his card is selling for more now than in 2016.

Rolex watches are NOT like sports cards.

2 big similarities....

-People are applying vintage pricing results to new models thinking they will surely increase like the old stuff
-Everyone is a “collector” now....these are not limited production and they are being put away in “mint” condition by the thousands.

[10klakes]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

2 big similarities....



-People are applying vintage pricing results to new models thinking they will surely increase like the old stuff

-Everyone is a “collector” now....these are not limited production and they are being put away in “mint” condition by the thousands.

People could’ve said this about the 116600. Ended up a three year run and discontinued.

I think back to any model that is now discontinued, say a 16610 (black) that was pretty common and mass produced. They are “collectible” even tho some are still stickered and stashed away.

The hype with Rolex and the collectibility is not going away anytime soon. How these watches age is tbd.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by 10klakes

People could’ve said this about the 116600. Ended up a three year run and discontinued.

I think back to any model that is now discontinued, say a 16610 (black) that was pretty common and mass produced. They are “collectible” even tho some are still stickered and stashed away.

The hype with Rolex and the collectibility is not going away anytime soon. How these watches age is tbd.

What is going on now is the exact OPPOSITE of the 116600. That watch sat in stores and collected dust. They were easily obtained at 20-30% off msrp because nobody wanted them. The collectibility part came later, after discontinuation, when people realized there weren’t a lot of them around.

[10klakes]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

What is going on now is the exact OPPOSITE of the 116600. That watch sat in stores and collected dust. They were easily obtained at 20-30% off msrp because nobody wanted them. The collectibility part came later, after discontinuation, when people realized there weren’t a lot of them around.

The point I was trying to make is:

1. Rolex are not made in unlimited quantity. If it were truly unlimited, everyone could get every model they wanted and we wouldn’t have waitlists, or fomo, due to discontinuation.

2. The fact that people keep them new or in a safe won’t change the collectibility 30 years from now. It will only affect the price of NOS vs used.

3. The 116600 proves that there are references in the modern day that could become highly collectible and produced in rather small quantities.

[Crazy Lugs]

I think a more appropriate analogy is the aircooled Porsche market- similar to OOP references such as five digit Rolex. Folks have been clamoring over the last few years about the aircooled Porsche bubble bursting, yet prices keep climbing quite simply because they aren't making them anymore.

I will take the contrarian view and argue OOP models will continue to hold or gain value.

[cbalster]

Originally Posted by Crazy Lugs

I think a more appropriate analogy is the aircooled Porsche market- similar to OOP references such as five digit Rolex. Folks have been clamoring over the last few years about the aircooled Porsche bubble bursting, yet prices keep climbing quite simply because they aren't making them anymore.

I will take the contrarian view and argue OOP models will continue to hold or gain value.

Some years of air cooled are over 30% lower than their highs a few years ago (long hoods). 993's are probably down 10%. The newer GT cars of recent years were once 100k over MSRP used, now they're MSRP and change. I think 911R's asked 300k-500k+ at some point, now they go closer to MSRP of 200k and change. I wouldn't rule out ss sport professional values falling at some point too.

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by cbalster

.. I wouldn't rule out ss sport professional values falling at some point too.

My guess is when Speculators cant sell their watches they bought at 2x -2.5x MSRP. Then they will move on and the contraction cycle begins. But another guess is, SS prices wont fall back to MSRP. You will see 'buyers' again coming back before it gets to MSRP.

[Pballkm21]

I haven't really seen much of a comparison to Yeezys....


*stirs the pot*

[Zippy+]

1D61BDE4-1833-4679-BABE-2E04F472F470.jpeg

Originally Posted by Pballkm21

I haven't really seen much of a comparison to Yeezys....


*stirs the pot*

Better cover both possibilities...

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by Pballkm21

I haven't really seen much of a comparison to Yeezys....


*stirs the pot*

Kayne was quite open that he wanted everyone to have the ability to buy his shoes. It was also pretty well known there were production limits. I also suspect there was some collusion in spiking the prices - the Frozen Yellow shows for example showing up at Flight Club in the cases the same day they are released.


Anyway, my thoughts on Rolex are, I’m happy they don’t over produce. Omega makes this mistake and their watches are discounted...heavily.

It wasn’t too long ago that the Grey Dealers were selling Rolex at a discount - how can this be good? Rolex is supposed to be a luxury, high end product - getting wholesaled is horrible. Yes demand is up, but that’s with a lot of things. Porsche/sports cars, Beach Front Property, Good Schools, etc.a

[ADR1982]

Interesting video. Also OP I agree with your observation that people are buying new watches and keeping them in pristine condition for resale later. This was not why folks bought new watches in the previous century.

Will you ever find a post 2017 blnr or Pepsi without papers in the future? No. Every single document is being stored by all owners. On a side note the move from papers to card also helped making sure all these watches will be available as full sets in the future

[springer]

I couldn't take any more after the "Blueberry" bs. The Shelby bs was bad enough.

Robert Moron....what more do you need to know.

[Rocket launcher]

The bubble is about to burst in the future rolex sports watches on average will be worth less than retail...

At this time trading is now done not by collectors or enthusiasts as we know the watches are available at retail.with a wait but at retail price...that the watches are mass produced and not rare ..there are millions of them ..with millions more warches to be made..

So all the dealing is speculator buying from grey or speculator..it's a tricky situation

As with stocks shares and commodities it hits saturation point and collapses as it dawns on the market that they are buying overpriced objects that are available..it's normally a cycle and I predict

Bubble Burst in 12 months.. with a slow down within the next 6 and a flat market in 18 months time.. the down turn is already starting as a ripple..second hand stuff is not selling as it was as the pull out is still costly.. take for example sub dates they are trading at 10% less than they were 7 months ago ..and what is at the greater price is not selling ..then overstock then BOOM.with bailout

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Rocket launcher

At this time trading is now done not by collectors or enthusiasts as we know the watches are available at retail.with a wait but at retail price...that the watches are mass produced and not rare ..

As with stocks shares and commodities it hits saturation point and collapses as it dawns on the market that they are buying overpriced objects that are available..

This is my thought as well. People are paying over retail for objects which are still being produced, at an Unknown/Unlimited quantity. It’s literally like printing
Money!

When you have a bunch of investors and speculators buying up inventory, they are doing it for profit. Many of them are using capital that is either borrowed or needs to be churned at some point. When the need arises for them to liquidate inventory, prices will slowly decline as they need to clear the shelves and free up money (buyers market).
Overall, I think everything will cool down, but the out of production and vintage stuff may stay solid. It’s the new stuff that is really just silly, and I can’t see it being sustainable.

[rw2008]

Originally Posted by Rocket launcher

Bubble Burst in 12 months.. with a slow down within the next 6 and a flat market in 18 months time.. the down turn is already starting as a ripple..second hand stuff is not selling as it was as the pull out is still costly.. take for example sub dates they are trading at 10% less than they were 7 months ago ..and what is at the greater price is not selling ..then overstock then BOOM.with bailout

Obviously I can’t predict the future but this seems absurd.

[Atlantic]

I enjoyed watching that.

[1William]

Such is a speculative bubble. It will burst and we can sit back and analyze it for the next couple of years. I have seen it with some sport items and remember in the late 80's and early 90's the market on Corvettes was crazy. Now, not at all. A correction is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when and how bad will it get for the speculators.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I found this video quite interesting, especially coming from a guy who makes a large part of his living selling modern watches. I have to say that generally speaking, I agree. I have said here time and time again that when you try too hard to make something collectible, it usually fails. What is going on right now with watches reminds me of the 1990’s with baseball cards. The reason the cards from the early 1900’s up to 1970’s are valuable, is that nobody cared about them and kept them in “mint” condition. By the time the 1990’s came around, people bought into the hype and started buying everything they could find and kept it in untouched condition. You used to be able to buy a pack of cards for .50 cents and sell the individual cards for 5 times that. In retrospect, it didn’t make a lot of sense, and fast forward those cards are pretty much worthless.
Now, I feel that modern Rolex are superior in quality to the old stuff, and I really like them, but steel BLRO selling for almost $20,000? Sorry, it just doesn’t make sense. Too many people are in the game now just for the investment and chase. New watches are being stored away untouched in safes, with people thinking they are going to pay for college. That usually doesn’t end well....sports cards, beanie babies, etc.



https://youtu.be/v74bKA_Z7Qc

The other major factor with the baseball card business was the very well documented mass over production of the cards which grew exponentially in the late 80’s early 90’s. Rolex is very clearly and deliberately not increasing production so when the economy contracts, they will go generally well as they always have.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Chester01

The other major factor with the baseball card business was the very well documented mass over production of the cards which grew exponentially in the late 80’s early 90’s. Rolex is very clearly and deliberately not increasing production so when the economy contracts, they will go generally well as they always have.

How is it “very clear” as you say? Rolex is not a publicly held company and does not have to release ANY financial or production numbers. I guess you are the insider?
It may sound like a skeptic point of view, but how do any of us know that they don’t have a warehouse of new ceramic Pepsi models sitting somewhere that they will trickle out to the market at a later date? Might sound silly, but the answer is that we don’t. If you owned a company that was producing widgets which were selling for twice the suggested price the moment they left the factory, wouldn’t you consider this? There is no reason for the perceived “shortage” other than it is by design.
In addition to that we see photo after photo of these things sitting in the box or safe in unworn condition.
We can all speculate and have opinions, but is absolute fact that these things are not unicorns. They are out there by the thousands, and there is a tipping point....basic economics

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

How is it “very clear” as you say? Rolex is not a publicly held company and does not have to release ANY financial or production numbers. I guess you are the insider?

It may sound like a skeptic point of view, but how do any of us know that they don’t have a warehouse of new ceramic Pepsi models sitting somewhere that they will trickle out to the market at a later date? Might sound silly, but the answer is that we don’t. If you owned a company that was producing widgets which were selling for twice the suggested price the moment they left the factory, wouldn’t you consider this? There is no reason for the perceived “shortage” other than it is by design.

In addition to that we see photo after photo of these things sitting in the box or safe in unworn condition.

We can all speculate and have opinions, but is absolute fact that these things are not unicorns. They are out there by the thousands, and there is a tipping point....basic economics

Well there are some facts here and my points not mere speculation. An individual today just posted data about the increase in demand from Asian markets. That’s real data. We also know that while Rolex does not release production numbers, COSC does tell the number of chronographs certified. So that gives us a sense that 1) demand is up, 2) production not so much. While they are not unicorns, facts are also clear that the number of gray market dealers have exposed in the past 5 years. This does pinch supply in a massive way. So the issue is indeed complex, but there are some data and facts that we have.








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[Sublovin]

Chester

Fair points, but here is what we have no idea of

1- how many watches have been produced, without movements being certified yet, and are sitting? We assume they producing them in an effort to keep up, but we have no idea.

2- of the most recent 500,000 SS produced and certified (just picking a number to illustrate) , we have no idea how many were actually delivered for sale.

In other words, there could have been only 250,000 released into the consumer stream while another 250,000 sit waiting to be trickled out.