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Old 1 March 2020, 03:25 PM   #631
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Well, if you believe what you said earlier "Don’t be surprised if this leads to an exchange of nuclear arsenal." why stop at 40%?
I just hope nations keep a cool head.
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Old 1 March 2020, 05:47 PM   #632
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I’m aligned with you on this, Seth. It’s simply math and it’s pretty clear where things are leading. Of course there will be an end to it. But as noted above this truly is just the beginning. Also this isn’t an 80+ issue, it’s a 50+ issue, death rates for 50-60 is >1%, 60+ >3%, and it goes up from there. 80+ is low teens I believe. Then there are one-offs from 10 plus years up to 40/50. I’m not concerned about getting sick but incredibly concerned about the financial collapse and geopolitical probabilities. Those are downright frightening. The market will crash 40%. That’s near guaranteed.

Layoffs are coming to prop up stock values. Then its a recession.

Doesn't take much to ruin the party.
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Old 1 March 2020, 06:31 PM   #633
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First Corona casualty in the US now confirmed.
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Old 1 March 2020, 07:29 PM   #634
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The latest in my city in Japan anyway is that food and drink vendors have been banned from the cherry blossom parks.

I know some of you have enjoyed my cherry blossom threads in the past.

The parks as of this moment are still slated to be open but the traditional vendors that are there providing food in "Yatai" type stalls is prohibited.

In other news I went to the store today and there is no toilet paper. Haha. Ok. Or tissues, wet wipes, hand sanitizer or masks. No surprise there. Long lines.

I bought some protein powder, toiletries and dog food. Not for me for my dog. Also some cough medication if I should become symtomatic to use before getting to a hospital.

Oh and paper towels in case I run out of toliet paper. I'm a bachelor so its all good.
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Old 1 March 2020, 08:57 PM   #635
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The latest in my city in Japan anyway is that food and drink vendors have been banned from the cherry blossom parks.

I know some of you have enjoyed my cherry blossom threads in the past.

The parks as of this moment are still slated to be open but the traditional vendors that are there providing food in "Yatai" type stalls is prohibited.

In other news I went to the store today and there is no toilet paper. Haha. Ok. Or tissues, wet wipes, hand sanitizer or masks. No surprise there. Long lines.

I bought some protein powder, toiletries and dog food. Not for me for my dog. Also some cough medication if I should become symtomatic to use before getting to a hospital.

Oh and paper towels in case I run out of toliet paper. I'm a bachelor so its all good.
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Old 1 March 2020, 10:20 PM   #636
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Layoffs are coming to prop up stock values. Then its a recession.

Doesn't take much to ruin the party.
Well if that’s true then it’s self caused. We might as well right? Since everyone’s going to get sick, and that’s inevitable, we might as well finish off the lower middle class and the poor with a good old fashion recession.

That was the chart I was referring to earlier. It looks almost identical to the flu.
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Old 1 March 2020, 10:26 PM   #637
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I have a conference in Atlanta 2nd week of March. It’s international and there will likely be tens of thousands of people. Me plus 5 of my team. I think I’m going to cancel the trip.

That’s if they even keep the show open. I doubt they will.

I don’t know if everything should close for now. Part of me certainly says precautionary measures need to taken.

But maybe it’s a big nothing. I just don’t know. From what I see though?

Certainly theme parks and non essentials should be evaluated right now.
My company just attended an international show in Orlando Florida two weeks ago. They were people from all over the world there including China. I would say there was roughly 70,000 people there. My whole company came , practically 50 people. I myself travel every week. I’ll be in Atlanta this week.

I guess if it’s total doom gloom like some are predicting here we will know in the next couple weeks so then we can all just plan to stay home for five or six months and watch the country crumble around us. You better have a lot of food and you better have a way to defend it because if you think that poor starving people are just going to sit home and starve to death you have another thing coming. Also if you think government, who can’t even stop telemarketing is going to protect you you’re also not very realistic.

So you doom and gloomers had better play this out in your head.
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Old 1 March 2020, 10:33 PM   #638
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70 people die in Chicago die last weekend by homicide and no one gives a damn. A virus comes along barely (if at all) more dangerous than the seasonal flu which kills way more people and people are tanking the stock market and speaking of the end of the world.

Our stupidity will end the world, not a virus. Calm down people, this is beyond ridiculous. The last recession caused about 10,000 suicide deaths. Panic induced recession is far more dangerous.
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Old 1 March 2020, 11:00 PM   #639
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My company just attended an international show in Orlando Florida two weeks ago. They were people from all over the world there including China. I would say there was roughly 70,000 people there. My whole company came , practically 50 people. I myself travel every week. I’ll be in Atlanta this week.

I guess if it’s total doom gloom like some are predicting here we will know in the next couple weeks so then we can all just plan to stay home for five or six months and watch the country crumble around us. You better have a lot of food and you better have a way to defend it because if you think that poor starving people are just going to sit home and starve to death you have another thing coming. Also if you think government, who can’t even stop telemarketing is going to protect you you’re also not very realistic.

So you doom and gloomers had better play this out in your head.
Do you even realize how you sound? I think you do, because people have told you. But I’m not sure you are listening.

And clearly, it is being played out in my head. If you are paying attention though, you will realize I’m not a doom and gloomer, I’m simply thinking about how this MIGHT play out. Different scenarios. You know, like a rational person might. Instead of simply sticking to my original theory without reevaluating as additional information comes out.

What you also appear unable to pick up, is that some people in that conference you went to might have been infected and simply don’t know it yet. That’s part of the problem with this virus.

The scary reality is that this might all be over and we don’t even know it yet. There could literally be 10 times the infections that have already been reported. It’s impossible to tell because of how this virus works.

And please, again, I’m not saying any of this is true. Or our reality. I’m saying that based on the FACTS presented so far, it has the potential to play out this way.

Personally, I’d prefer to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It’s how I’ve done everything in my life so far and things have worked out pretty well.

Just look at the real world happenings in Japan. That’s happening to our friend Tom today. Right now.

If you have your head in the sand it doesn’t mean things aren’t still happening.

I’m terms of protecting myself and my family...trust in that I am prepared.
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Old 1 March 2020, 11:02 PM   #640
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70 people die in Chicago die last weekend by homicide and no one gives a damn. A virus comes along barely (if at all) more dangerous than the seasonal flu which kills way more people and people are tanking the stock market and speaking of the end of the world.

Our stupidity will end the world, not a virus. Calm down people, this is beyond ridiculous. The last recession caused about 10,000 suicide deaths. Panic induced recession is far more dangerous.
Extremely well put. I just read in the New York Times (yes I survived reading one article from them) and what we are talking about is 87,000 cases worldwide with 7000 outside of China. 70 in the United States. I agree that panic causing a recession will do thousands of times more damage to the general public than a flu like virus. They should probably just shut the stock market down for a month until traders calm down. We just got out of a recession a few years ago. The economy is rocking like it never has before. How else could we be arguing about being able to get luxury watches that were extremely easy to get 3-4 years ago??? If we destroy all that on a hunch or more accurately, fear I wonder how the general public or feel about it this go around? They might get the long knives out for the elite top one percent this time.

I agree with Fleetlord. If we lose 40 to 50% of the stock market then massive layoffs will occur shortly after and then most definitely a very deep recession. Then all bets are off.
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Old 1 March 2020, 11:07 PM   #641
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Do you even realize how you sound? I think you do, because people have told you. But I’m not sure you are listening.

And clearly, it is being played out in my head. If you are paying attention though, you will realize I’m not a doom and gloomer, I’m simply thinking about how this MIGHT play out. Different scenarios. You know, like a rational person might. Instead of simply sticking to my original theory without reevaluating as additional information comes out.

What you also appear unable to pick up, is that some people in that conference you went to might have been infected and simply don’t know it yet. That’s part of the problem with this virus.

The scary reality is that this might all be over and we don’t even know it yet. There could literally be 10 times the infections that have already been reported. It’s impossible to tell because of how this virus works.

And please, again, I’m not saying any of this is true. Or our reality. I’m saying that based on the FACTS presented so far, it has the potential to play out this way.

Personally, I’d prefer to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It’s how I’ve done everything in my life so far and things have worked out pretty well.

Just look at the real world happenings in Japan. That’s happening to our friend Tom today. Right now.

If you have your head in the sand it doesn’t mean things aren’t still happening.

I’m terms of protecting myself and my family...trust in that I am prepared.
Sorry you feel that way my friend. I really wasn’t referring to you when I was talking about doom and gloom. However I did put it in my post responding to yours so I can understand why you thought that. I’m trying to be optimistic here. Everyone should be prepared for a long emergency regardless if this happens or not. I think I’ll just back away from this thread. You, of all people are someone I didn’t want to upset or have misunderstand what my thoughts are. Sorry.
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Old 2 March 2020, 10:15 AM   #642
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This thread has been re-opened on a trial basis.

Just to let everyone know that if you make an unreasonable or antagonistic or belligerent post (as solely determined by any Moderator), you will be immediately and permanently banned without warning or explanation.

This is not a thread for arguing and if you want to agitate any claim rather than informing about facts you will find yourself banned.

Looking forward to good times

So don't say you weren't warned and all moderation decisions will be final and no correspondence will be entered into.

Thank you
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Old 2 March 2020, 10:19 AM   #643
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This thread has been re-opened on a trial basis.

Just to let everyone know that if you make an unreasonable or antagonistic or belligerent post (as solely determined by any Moderator), you will be immediately and permanently banned without warning or explanation.

This is not a thread for arguing and is you want to agitate any claim rather than informing about facts you will find yourself banned.

So don't say you weren't warned and all moderation decisions will be final and no correspondence will be entered into.

Thank you
I’m thrilled it’s back open. Thank you.

And truthfully, IMO it’s an important thread.

I’m grateful.
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Old 2 March 2020, 10:23 AM   #644
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Sorry you feel that way my friend. I really wasn’t referring to you when I was talking about doom and gloom. However I did put it in my post responding to yours so I can understand why you thought that. I’m trying to be optimistic here. Everyone should be prepared for a long emergency regardless if this happens or not. I think I’ll just back away from this thread. You, of all people are someone I didn’t want to upset or have misunderstand what my thoughts are. Sorry.
Just a quick comment here that Brett and I are boys.

And we had a nice moment offline where we both shared some apologies.

We both also agreed that it was simply a heated discussion. Which happens. It’s a hot topic. But that’s the way of things. Good heated debate is healthy.

But also understand the difficulties and challenges of being a MOD and respect the rules.

Glad this is back up and running. It’s a great thread to share and get info.
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Old 2 March 2020, 10:53 AM   #645
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Thanks for keeping this open. One of the most useful aspects of TRF is getting perspective from around the globe and particularly with this issue it’s invaluable.
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Old 2 March 2020, 10:56 AM   #646
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Thank you, Steve. I’ll behave also. :(
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Old 2 March 2020, 11:02 AM   #647
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70 people die in Chicago die last weekend by homicide and no one gives a damn. A virus comes along barely (if at all) more dangerous than the seasonal flu which kills way more people and people are tanking the stock market and speaking of the end of the world.

Our stupidity will end the world, not a virus. Calm down people, this is beyond ridiculous. The last recession caused about 10,000 suicide deaths. Panic induced recession is far more dangerous.
Words of wisdom. And shame on some in the media for stoking fear and creating panic.
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Old 2 March 2020, 12:56 PM   #648
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Cheers to the TRF mods for keeping this one open.
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Old 2 March 2020, 01:35 PM   #649
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This thread has been re-opened on a trial basis.

Just to let everyone know that if you make an unreasonable or antagonistic or belligerent post (as solely determined by any Moderator), you will be immediately and permanently banned without warning or explanation.

This is not a thread for arguing and if you want to agitate any claim rather than informing about facts you will find yourself banned.

Looking forward to good times

So don't say you weren't warned and all moderation decisions will be final and no correspondence will be entered into.

Thank you


I applaud the wisdom in both reopening the thread and the fair warning. This topic did bring out some conduct unbecoming of TRF and some senseless quarreling. Kudo’s for lifting this up to a respectful plane.

The cooling off period also helped some preserve their member status. I was having a great phone call with another member when I learned it had been locked. When I got home I scanned to see who might have been banned leading up to the closing, and was relieved none had been.

At times good judgement is displaced by outrage or extreme emotional upset. Thanks, Steve, for this gesture. Not everyone may read it, but if they fly off the handle there’s always the cornfield awaiting new residents.


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Old 2 March 2020, 01:40 PM   #650
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Hopefully this thread can get (and stay) back on track....

Just read this headline:

2nd US death
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Old 2 March 2020, 01:44 PM   #651
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70 people die in Chicago die last weekend by homicide and no one gives a damn.


That is not true - provide a source corroborating that claim you made or retract.

For 2020, 68 total murders in January & February were recorded in Chicago.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2...ence-homicides


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Old 2 March 2020, 01:53 PM   #652
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I’m extremely intrigued by the following:

1. Coronavirus virus per our health advisory is that it can only be spread with large droplets. But how did it spread so prevalently on the Diamond Princess if everyone was quarantined in their rooms? And what about other ways?

2. Reinfection has now been reported by enough nations to except it to be true. Apparently it can be even more damaging the second time around. Is this a time will tell or outliers? Also I’m curious about the long term lung, kidney and heart tissue damage.

3. Masks are completely useless. But we have seen them being used for years. It was also reported by our own health advisory that N95 are the only ones that would help protect you. Why the sudden change?
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Old 2 March 2020, 02:02 PM   #653
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Moto gp has canceled their season opener in Qatar. Just read this from Florida.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/pu...or-coronavirus
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Old 2 March 2020, 02:07 PM   #654
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If you look at the mortality rate in China outside of Hubei, it is around 1%. The mortality rate due to flu in China is around 1.6-2.6%. There has been a mass overreaction by the media and certain governments. In saying this, places with inadequate health care facilities and/or large percentage of elderly (such as Iran and Northen Italy) will see higher mortality rates.

It is worse than the flu, but over 16,000 people have died this flu season in the US yet we don’t have travel bans and rolling coverage of the “killer flu”.

One other thing; it is continually being reported that China has over 80,000 cases. What is very rarely being reported is right now once you take in deaths and people recovered (over 44,500) there are less than 33,000 cases. And that number is dropping by about 2,000 per day.
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Old 2 March 2020, 02:14 PM   #655
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https://www.boston.com/news/health/2...r-weeks-in-u-s

6 weeks of undetected spreading already ?
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Old 2 March 2020, 02:18 PM   #656
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https://www.boston.com/news/health/2...r-weeks-in-u-s

6 weeks of undetected spreading already ?


That is entirely possible since exposure could have occurred before Coronavirus became well-known. Not all people who are exposed become ill, and not all who become ill get severe symptoms. So the virus could have spread undetected for quite a while.


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Old 2 March 2020, 02:52 PM   #657
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First case was reported in my area last night, well, not sure if it was reported yet, but in a suburb less than a mile from where I live. Emergency responder friend confirmed it - he saw it was his own eyes. I wasn't a bit paranoid unti last night when I heard. Now it's real and really scary to be honest. My wife is sick and I'm scared she may have come into contact with it as she works in the suburb where the person who is lives.
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Old 2 March 2020, 02:53 PM   #658
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If you look at the mortality rate in China outside of Hubei, it is around 1%. The mortality rate due to flu in China is around 1.6-2.6%. There has been a mass overreaction by the media and certain governments. In saying this, places with inadequate health care facilities and/or large percentage of elderly (such as Iran and Northen Italy) will see higher mortality rates.



It is worse than the flu, but over 16,000 people have died this flu season in the US yet we don’t have travel bans and rolling coverage of the “killer flu”.



One other thing; it is continually being reported that China has over 80,000 cases. What is very rarely being reported is right now once you take in deaths and people recovered (over 44,500) there are less than 33,000 cases. And that number is dropping by about 2,000 per day.


It’s 2x more contagious than the flu. Can’t leave that out of the equation.


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Old 2 March 2020, 04:26 PM   #659
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If you look at the mortality rate in China outside of Hubei, it is around 1%. The mortality rate due to flu in China is around 1.6-2.6%. There has been a mass overreaction by the media and certain governments. In saying this, places with inadequate health care facilities and/or large percentage of elderly (such as Iran and Northen Italy) will see higher mortality rates.

It is worse than the flu, but over 16,000 people have died this flu season in the US yet we don’t have travel bans and rolling coverage of the “killer flu”.

One other thing; it is continually being reported that China has over 80,000 cases. What is very rarely being reported is right now once you take in deaths and people recovered (over 44,500) there are less than 33,000 cases. And that number is dropping by about 2,000 per day.

This is also my opinion. A serious virus? Absolutely, but not worth the intensity and panic it has presented. More people die from the flu every year in the US alone.
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Old 2 March 2020, 04:26 PM   #660
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It’s 2x more contagious than the flu. Can’t leave that out of the equation.


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