Baselworld 2020 likely cancellee

[Newbie@SIN]

With a new directive by the Swiss government to cancel all big events due to the corona virus outbreak in Europe, Baselworld 2020 is likely to be cancelled for this year.

[Hendrikus]

If this does happen, how would Rolex release their new pieces? Just on their website one day or stage some press event presumably with the main players invited?

[Ichiran]

This year's BW has been postponed to Jan 2021.

I applaud this move.

[key]

https://www.baselworld.com/en/news/n...-communication

[zahain]

So since “Baselworld 2020” is postponed to Jan 2021, does that mean Patek will still churn out the run out list? I hope so cause i want a white 11


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[scarlet knight]

How do they know thing won’t be better by then? It was for April.

[GreenLantern]

Geneva Auto Show canceled, too.

[GreenLantern]

Honestly, it feels a lot like over-panic.

Yes, the mortality rate is a bit higher than the flu (0.5% vs. 0.01%) but with proper care, caution, and hygiene, this won't destroy humanity.

No one's talking about the more severe than usual seasonal flu epidemic in the US right now. Media is sensationalizing everything to do with COVID-19.

And my stock portfolio is feeling the pain due to irrational fears and panic. Thanks!

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Honestly, it feels a lot like over-panic.

Yes, the mortality rate is a bit higher than the flu (0.5% vs. 0.01%) but with proper care, caution, and hygiene, this won't destroy humanity.

No one's talking about the more severe than usual seasonal flu epidemic in the US right now. Media is sensationalizing everything to do with COVID-19.

And my stock portfolio is feeling the pain due to irrational fears and panic. Thanks!

With 3 months of statistics and over 84k known infections, it is very clear the cov19 is not a seasonal flu. The high infection rate (R0 of 3), high complications rate (18 to 20% of infected will need ventilators in hospitals) and high mortality rate (2 to 3%) once the local hospitals are overwhelmed (they will be overwhelmed, due to the high R0 and complications rate right after local transmissions - see Korea and now Italy).

The mortality rate for seasonal flu and H1N1 is 0.01% to 0.1%. This is a world of difference from cov19. And seasonal flu kills more elderly folks while cov19 also kills middle-aged.

[GreenLantern]

I know this. :) I'm not saying it's not a seasonal flu. I'm saying that there's a more severe than usual seasonal flu epidemic in the US and no one is talking about it.

The higher infection rate of COVID-19 and its higher mortality rate (it's actually 0.5% outside of China) makes it a serious issue. Yes.

But, the media is inducing panic.

[GreenLantern]

This is a good resource, for those who don't know of it already: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Also a great video (and series): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFoj2L2LpNA

FYI, the higher mortality rate in China is likely due to medical facilities being overwhelmed at ground zero (Wuhan).

[GreenLantern]

For those wondering, R0 of Influenza usually is slightly below 2. An R0 of 3 for COVID-19 is not devastatingly high in comparison.

If you want scary high, look at Measles with an R0 of 15.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I know this. :) I'm not saying it's not a seasonal flu. I'm saying that there's a more severe than usual seasonal flu epidemic in the US and no one is talking about it.

The higher infection rate of COVID-19 and its higher mortality rate (it's actually 0.5% outside of China) makes it a serious issue. Yes.

But, the media is inducing panic.

Outside China, Iran has a mortality rate of 9% and Italy has a mortality rate of 2.4%.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

For those wondering, R0 of Influenza usually is slightly below 2. An R0 of 3 for COVID-19 is not devastatingly high in comparison.

If you want scary high, look at Measles with an R0 of 15.

Again, measles has a mortality rate of 0.2%, and MMR jab is available. Try finding a vaccine for Cov19.

[GreenLantern]

None of this is reason to panic.

[ap1]

2020 models not available till then anyways, if your FIRST

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

None of this is reason to panic.

No one is asking anyone to panic. It is prudent not to downplay the potential impact of a community viral spread and to be well prepared nonetheless, like putting on hold an event that draws people from all over the world into crowded arenas. Baselworld is just a watch event, nothing more.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

No one is asking anyone to panic. It is prudent not to downplay the potential impact of a community viral spread and to be well prepared nonetheless, like putting on hold an event that draws people from all over the world into crowded arenas. Baselworld is just a watch event, nothing more.

I 100% agree.

It seemed as though you were disputing my conclusion that the media is inducing panic in the way they are covering COVID-19.

If that is not the case then I yield. :)

[Seaborn]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

No one is asking anyone to panic. It is prudent not to downplay the potential impact of a community viral spread and to be well prepared nonetheless, like putting on hold an event that draws people from all over the world into crowded arenas. Baselworld is just a watch event, nothing more.

Well said

[MikeMike]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I know this. :) I'm not saying it's not a seasonal flu. I'm saying that there's a more severe than usual seasonal flu epidemic in the US and no one is talking about it.

The higher infection rate of COVID-19 and its higher mortality rate (it's actually 0.5% outside of China) makes it a serious issue. Yes.

But, the media is inducing panic.

If you look at the mortality rate in China outside of Hubei, it is around 1%. The mortality rate due to flu in China is around 1.6-2.6%. There has been a mass overreaction by the media and certain governments. In saying this, places with inadequate health care facilities and/or large percentage of elderly (such as Iran and Northen Italy) will see higher mortality rates.

It is worse than the flu, but over 16,000 people have died this flu season in the US yet we don’t have travel bans and rolling coverage of the “killer flu”.

[MikeMike]

One other thing; it is continually being reported that China has almost 80,000 cases. What is very rarely being reported is right now once you take in deaths and people recovered (over 42,000) there are less than 35,000 cases. And that number is dropping by about 2,000 per day.