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Old 2 December 2019, 12:20 PM   #1
Johnnie Peh
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Audermars Piguet 15500 grey dial value retention

Hi guys what do you all think of the new 15500 grey dial. Would it be able to retain its value over the next couple of years.. Welcome any inputs
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Old 2 December 2019, 12:50 PM   #2
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don't buy a watch for its value or investment- buy it because you like it.
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Old 2 December 2019, 01:20 PM   #3
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It's a gorgeous watch and I would buy it on its merits alone.
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Old 2 December 2019, 01:56 PM   #4
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Are you expecting to be desperate for money and have to sell to feed your children?
if so, maybe luxury timepiece sub-forums aren't the best use of your efforts..

I am sure that there is a forum for extreme coupon clipping somewhere on the internet..

point being... I am fully aware that "value retention" and "secondary market" are now part of the conversation, but that is only a recent convention... this is a bit of a trend of watch as investment - as the world is looking for other ways to make money during "unstable markets" (quotation marks because I have done unbelievably well in the markets lately just following my adviser's meat and potatoes approach)..

never before was value retention an issue in the luxury world, and it might not be for a long time after this bubble bursts...

Sure it's nice to be able to tell your wife, and yourself, that you could sell it for what you paid, or that you "could flip for more", or that it is a "good investment"

But really, the obstacle you need to get over is within yourself... can you allow yourself to buy an item purely for luxury?? or does it have to have some moral merit to it?

The hard part is that you are at a fork in the road of your Ego ...

Either #1. you can afford the luxury item, and will buy it purely because it is luxurious, and has no intrinsic utility (eg "I can use it diving", "I need a GMT for work") , but then have to surrender your idea that you have greater moral center than the "Fat cat gluttonous upper class"

or #2. you really can't afford it, might need to sell at some point... in which case, it is really kind of irresponsible to buy in the first place...

a harsh response in a lot of ways... but the internet and social media probably needs a dose of harsh realty every now and then..
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Old 2 December 2019, 04:03 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SUPERDOC View Post
Are you expecting to be desperate for money and have to sell to feed your children?
if so, maybe luxury timepiece sub-forums aren't the best use of your efforts..

I am sure that there is a forum for extreme coupon clipping somewhere on the internet..

point being... I am fully aware that "value retention" and "secondary market" are now part of the conversation, but that is only a recent convention... this is a bit of a trend of watch as investment - as the world is looking for other ways to make money during "unstable markets" (quotation marks because I have done unbelievably well in the markets lately just following my adviser's meat and potatoes approach)..

never before was value retention an issue in the luxury world, and it might not be for a long time after this bubble bursts...

Sure it's nice to be able to tell your wife, and yourself, that you could sell it for what you paid, or that you "could flip for more", or that it is a "good investment"

But really, the obstacle you need to get over is within yourself... can you allow yourself to buy an item purely for luxury?? or does it have to have some moral merit to it?

The hard part is that you are at a fork in the road of your Ego ...

Either #1. you can afford the luxury item, and will buy it purely because it is luxurious, and has no intrinsic utility (eg "I can use it diving", "I need a GMT for work") , but then have to surrender your idea that you have greater moral center than the "Fat cat gluttonous upper class"

or #2. you really can't afford it, might need to sell at some point... in which case, it is really kind of irresponsible to buy in the first place...

a harsh response in a lot of ways... but the internet and social media probably needs a dose of harsh realty every now and then..
Make this a sticky.
Good post.
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Old 2 December 2019, 04:25 PM   #6
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Perhaps what he meant was its residual value would not like plummet to 50% its value. Perhaps not, but the reality is it could. And you must be okay with that.
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Old 2 December 2019, 05:45 PM   #7
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In lieu of waxing poetic about how much richer I am than you I will answer the question. I joke superdoc I did enjoy your post ;)

In a stable economy you will be able to sell for even money or a small loss (2k).

In a shaky economy you could take as much as a 50% haircut if you needed to sell fast.

In a strong economy with a mint watch you could make a couple grand.
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Old 2 December 2019, 07:23 PM   #8
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Agree GB. If anyone here can say "they will hold their value over two years" they are making a much bigger call than on watch prices. No one knows... And I'm sure if forums were around in 2000 people would have been asking the same question about tech stocks (will I be able to get out of I need to?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GB-man View Post
In lieu of waxing poetic about how much richer I am than you I will answer the question. I joke superdoc I did enjoy your post ;)

In a stable economy you will be able to sell for even money or a small loss (2k).

In a shaky economy you could take as much as a 50% haircut if you needed to sell fast.

In a strong economy with a mint watch you could make a couple grand.

Excellent and very true. If you can't ride out a down turn without selling a watch you are in bad shape. Always nice to know there is some value available if you need it, but who knows what that will be.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SUPERDOC View Post
Are you expecting to be desperate for money and have to sell to feed your children?
if so, maybe luxury timepiece sub-forums aren't the best use of your efforts..

I am sure that there is a forum for extreme coupon clipping somewhere on the internet..

point being... I am fully aware that "value retention" and "secondary market" are now part of the conversation, but that is only a recent convention... this is a bit of a trend of watch as investment - as the world is looking for other ways to make money during "unstable markets" (quotation marks because I have done unbelievably well in the markets lately just following my adviser's meat and potatoes approach)..

never before was value retention an issue in the luxury world, and it might not be for a long time after this bubble bursts...

Sure it's nice to be able to tell your wife, and yourself, that you could sell it for what you paid, or that you "could flip for more", or that it is a "good investment"

But really, the obstacle you need to get over is within yourself... can you allow yourself to buy an item purely for luxury?? or does it have to have some moral merit to it?

The hard part is that you are at a fork in the road of your Ego ...

Either #1. you can afford the luxury item, and will buy it purely because it is luxurious, and has no intrinsic utility (eg "I can use it diving", "I need a GMT for work") , but then have to surrender your idea that you have greater moral center than the "Fat cat gluttonous upper class"

or #2. you really can't afford it, might need to sell at some point... in which case, it is really kind of irresponsible to buy in the first place...

a harsh response in a lot of ways... but the internet and social media probably needs a dose of harsh realty every now and then..
OP.... If you like it and can afford to not need the money then go ahead.

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Old 2 December 2019, 10:23 PM   #9
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Feels like the olden days are coming back, golden days of yore, and yes I am listening to Sinatra having himself a merry Xmas now, so I'd make no bets on prices rising.
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Old 3 December 2019, 01:09 PM   #10
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I think OP question is fare one to ask, not sure why the harsh responses, I would understand if he was enquiring on resale value appreciating from investment standpoint but asking about value retention (selling at cost/break even) I think itís totally fair to ask and consider.


To the OP, Iím not sure I have the right answer, but from where AP is heading on itís boutique only concept and not allowing discounts through boutiques by default this will limit fluctuations of prices. Further, AP adopting frequent incremental price increase to its timepieces will definitely help retain value. Last year 15400 retail at 17 k usd this year 15500 retail at 19 k usd and we are now hearing from our friends in Singapore there is a price hike and it could be global.

15400-500 price increase was due to new in house movement and cosmetic changes, however, it raised the resale value on 15400 to match current modelís retail price or a little bit higher.

All of these factors contribute to value retention and for sure it strengthen the brands reputation.

Itís also important to mention that in the past there were instances where AP reduced retail price on its timepieces. Are they going to do it again? I doubt it.... but if it happens the subsequent result is a decrease in value on all effected models.


So my take on this is that AP will be one of the highest value retention brands in the watch making industry as they expand their boutique network and sell directly to consumers cutting off the middleman and therefore cutting any manipulation of prices (discounts etc).


At the end of the day, only buy the watch you like and will enjoy as itíll accompany you through good and bad moments in your life and will form memories of its own.


Best of luck on your search and next acquisition
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Old 3 December 2019, 05:04 PM   #11
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23 years ago I was 25 and I wanted to buy my first really nice car. The people that I knew who drove nice cars seemed to be saying that Porsche didnít lose money, this must have been all the reassurance that I needed because in the next moment I was in the dealership ordering a brand new car.

3 years later I sold the car and I can tell you that at that point I realised that people who tell themselves, and others, that their dream luxury purchases donít lose money are either delusional or donít consider 35-40% to be a loss due to the enjoyment of ownership. I learnt very quickly that if you buy a new luxury item then 99% of the time it will be worth less when you sell it. Itís not always the case but itís likely and if you can be comfortable with that then buy the watch and enjoy it but donít be one of the people who keep the stickers on it to preserve its new appearance which implies that a forced sale may be just around the corner.

The 15500 is a beautiful watch, and grey is stunning. Iím guessing from your question that this will be your first step up from something like a Rolex. If you buy the AP then do so in the knowledge that itís a great watch and if you sell it in just 2 years then the chances are that youíll lose money, keep it 5 years or more and the chances of a loss seriously decrease the longer that you keep it as AP have periodic price increases which strengthen your resale value.




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Old 3 December 2019, 08:06 PM   #12
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SUPERDOC... These are for your eyes only.
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Old 3 December 2019, 09:23 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by GB-man View Post
In lieu of waxing poetic about how much richer I am than you I will answer the question. I joke superdoc I did enjoy your post ;)

In a stable economy you will be able to sell for even money or a small loss (2k).

In a shaky economy you could take as much as a 50% haircut if you needed to sell fast.

In a strong economy with a mint watch you could make a couple grand.


Second this. I donít think thereís anything wrong with taking value retention into consideration when making a large purchase, but I do think you have to be prepared to take a significant loss before pulling the trigger. I am considering this reference for myself, I love that grey dial. Just have to decide if I can afford both it and the 116505 with black dial Let us know what you decide OP.


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Old 5 December 2019, 01:57 PM   #14
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agree with above..probably lose 10% over the next couple years unless we hit a recession (overdue) in which case it could lose 40% or so...

watches def hold their value way better than any car i have ever owned ( porsches, bmw and Benz.). the only way a car won't fall is if its a collectible AND you don't drive it...this is all the rationale I really need to buy more watches.
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Old 5 December 2019, 02:22 PM   #15
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agree with above..probably lose 10% over the next couple years unless we hit a recession (overdue) in which case it could lose 40% or so...

watches def hold their value way better than any car i have ever owned ( porsches, bmw and Benz.). the only way a car won't fall is if its a collectible AND you don't drive it...this is all the rationale I really need to buy more watches.


True and I totally second this.

One thing I failed to mention is that demand is the most important factor in value retention without adequate demand value retention is of none existence. For instance look into 15300 itís very popular reference undoubtably because of its case size 39 mm but also look into 15300 or its trading 50% less than retail, in despite of its popularity. Which tell us time is an important factor in timepieces retaining their value but on its own is a no go, demand has to complement that.


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Old 5 December 2019, 03:19 PM   #16
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I think OP question is fare one to ask, not sure why the harsh responses,
Because it's a common question and the answer is the same every time.

The folks in this thread have done a great job in their detailed responses, but equally great responses are casually available all over TRF and on the wider internet.
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Old 5 December 2019, 05:42 PM   #17
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but also look into 15300 or its trading 50% less than retail, in despite of its popularity.
I'm not sure what the last time was you checked current prices on the 15300st but they are currently more popular than ever and trading over double their last known retail price. Especially the blue one trading over current 15500 blue at retail.
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Old 5 December 2019, 09:05 PM   #18
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Best of luck on your search and next acquisition
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Old 5 December 2019, 11:53 PM   #19
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I'm not sure what the last time was you checked current prices on the 15300st but they are currently more popular than ever and trading over double their last known retail price. Especially the blue one trading over current 15500 blue at retail.


Sorry I should have been more elaborate I mentioned (15300 OR) meaning rose gold not ST


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Old 6 December 2019, 12:37 AM   #20
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Sorry I should have been more elaborate I mentioned (15300 OR) meaning rose gold not ST


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Old 6 December 2019, 12:49 AM   #21
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Think you need blue dial for that.

But if value consideration is number 1 criteria, 5711 or Daytona reigns king. But if RO is what creates Joy, then even 30% hair cut to be different than the sea of Nautulius or Rolex is worth it.
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Old 6 December 2019, 01:20 AM   #22
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Because it's a common question and the answer is the same every time.

The folks in this thread have done a great job in their detailed responses, but equally great responses are casually available all over TRF and on the wider internet.
a common question doesn't justify a harsh answer, at least for me.
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Old 6 December 2019, 01:37 AM   #23
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Short answer is no one knows, thats a hard prediction to make. I do like the new grey dial better than its predecessor. Its a very Iconic watch you should get it if you like it
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