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Old 15 October 2021, 06:13 AM   #31
Mendota
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That is NOT how the Fed and Treasury work at all...I'm pretty sure that you misheard Mr. Kashkari. What you described is a huge Ponzi scheme that doesn't even sound legal. I can't find the interview you referenced, but it was most likely that the Fed increased lending limits to banks based on their increased liquidity due to all those savings. Those increased lending limits are actually increasing the money supply ("printing money"), which has a much greater positive impact on the economy than the Fed's other option which is purchasing US Treasury bills to inject money into the economy. The downside is that all this injection of money into the economy fuels inflation. Investors fear losses due to the devaluation of the dollar because of inflation and look for more hard assets that are more resistant to inflation, like real estate and luxury items like expensive jewelry, Rolex watches, fine art, and collector automobiles...lots of cash leaving the financial markets and some of it finding it's way to Rolexes, Pateks, etc. Not necessarily as investments, but as tangible assets that are unlikely to lose value in uncertain financial times... More of a hedge combined with a "I made all this money, I'll be damned if I'm gonna lose it now. I'd rather have a vacation home at the beach, a collector Ferrari and a Rolex Daytona..."
Here's one of the interviews he gave last fall. He went into greater depth in the NY Times article and some of the others he gave at the time. I don't fully understand the mechanics of it, so I am sure I mis-represented some of that, but my friend is one of the top hedge fund managers in the country in his area of expertise and he knows Neel professionally. I should reach out to him to see if I completely misunderstood. Link and full text below, with the specific section in bold. Would love to get your opinion.

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/09/90067...is-fed-preside


The United States has now surpassed five million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 160,000 deaths from the virus as tens of millions of Americans file for unemployment, causing experts to debate how the nation should respond.

Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says the answer should be a return to mandated lockdowns in every state for up to six weeks in an effort to save both lives and the economy.

"If we aren't willing to take this action, millions more cases with many more deaths are likely before a vaccine might be available," Kashkari wrote in a New York Times op-ed on Friday alongside Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Kashkari says lockdowns were having a positive effect during the spring. The problem, he told NPR's All Things Considered on Sunday, is that "we threw in the towel before the health officials had actually gotten control of the virus."

Giving up too early cost the economy, says Kashkari. What the country needs now, he says, is "a more stringent, uniform lockdown state-by-state" until the virus can be brought under control. "Then we can return to normal economic activity with more confidence."

Article continues after sponsor message

Interview Highlights
On the economic argument for a more strict lockdown

The economic argument is what we're doing right now isn't working. We did a modest lockdown and then we let up far too quickly according to the public health experts, and now our economy is only very slowly recovering. Many people feel scared to go back into restaurants, so restaurants can't return to normal.

We're not really going to be able to return to a robust economy until we get control of the virus, and at 50,000 cases a day it's spreading like wildfire throughout the country. So unfortunately, yes, a lockdown for six weeks would impose short term pain, but I believe we as a country can afford to support Americans through that short term lockdown so then we can reopen and have a vigorous economy, have kids returning to school.

I want us to get back to a robust economy as quickly as possible. This is much faster than allowing the virus to spread uncontrolled.

On the concern that increasing federal unemployment benefits will wrack up federal debt

Well one of the things that has happened in this recession that is unlike any recession in modern times, our savings rate has taken off. It's really curious. Those of us, like me, who have been able to keep our jobs, we're actually saving more money because we're not going out to restaurants or movies or on vacations. So the personal savings rates soared from about 8% to 20%.

The way it works is that money then gets put in the bank, or put into a money market fund, and those resources are available so that when the government runs deficits, it doesn't have to borrow as much from abroad because we're generating savings domestically. It is much safer for a country to fund its own government deficits from its own people than it is to borrow from abroad.

So it turns out, we can actually fund the additional unemployment benefits, for example, or additional support to small businesses from our own domestic resources. That is much, much better than having to borrow it from abroad. So this recession is very unique in how we've shut down part of the economy because it's also generating savings that can support the workers who are most affected. I know it's complicated, but this is a unique moment when the traditional concerns about government deficits, debt to GDP, do not apply.


Will Jarvis and Tinbete Ermyas produced and edited the audio version of this story.
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Old 15 October 2021, 07:10 AM   #32
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That’s always the best part. They are all very stern and serious about flippers who walk in the front door, but they also have more doors.
Not my experience - several individuals on the W/L at ADs will never get the call as they've been subtly caught flipping. They may just be wondering why their name never comes up for that sub anymore.........
This article seems pretty accurate - it's just the conspiracy theorists on TRF will never accept that this is a problem of social media's making not Rolex themselves. Rolex will slowly try and ramp up supply over the next 5 years I'd imagine but not 50%, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as some would like. They just won't want to put the brand at risk if a big slump happens and they would have to close factories etc.
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Old 15 October 2021, 07:28 AM   #33
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Old 15 October 2021, 07:37 AM   #34
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Agreed! I personally believe that all the money printing the fed it’s doing and distributing through pandemic relief programs has created an increased demand for all goods and services including luxury goods.

So I believe that the demand has increased



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Absolutely. And ALL goods not just luxury. Cheap stuff from China and Vietnam and everything in between.
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Old 15 October 2021, 11:17 AM   #35
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Of course Rolex kept their "largest dealer" in a vitally important market supplied as normal.
I heard from my AD of 15 years that they are being allocated watches comparable to 2019 levels, with a good mix of desirable models. They are located in Northern NJ, not a multi store retailer, but a long standing dealer.

Another AD in central NJ with whom I am personally familiar says the same thing, that supply and mix of models is just fine, but demand is through the roof, up a bit from their existing customers and those in the area, but astronomical demand from out of state and people they have never dealt with previously.
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Old 15 October 2021, 11:27 AM   #36
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That's not exactly accurate. The Fed and Treasury actually worked in concert to self-finance most of the stimulus funding last year through accessing all of our savings, checking, CD, and money market account balances. The savings rate was well over 30% last year and Neel Kashkari, who is the MPLS Federal Reserve President, gave a fantastic interview and explanation on NPR and all of the Sunday morning shows of how they all pulled it off. This recession was unlike any other in history, and it created a very unique situation where they were able to use our own dollars instead of issuing debt and borrowing from overseas to fund it. The Fed literally plucked all of that money out of the banks and they turned around and issued reserve lines to all of the banks in case customers needed to access cash. Nobody was going anywhere during lockdown so all of that cash was just sitting there. It all got used.
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Old 15 October 2021, 12:13 PM   #37
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I have to agree. There is no shortage in supply.
He said that demand has increased 3000x. But this spike in demand is not from enthusiasts or collectors. The world population did not wake up one day and decide to become watch collectors.
This extra demand comes from people who don't know and don't really care about watches, but just the dollar signs that come with them. They are known by the familiar term... flippers.
Rolex is correct in not increasing their production to cater to the increased demand by these flippers. Because if these flippers decide to do their flipping on other luxury goods, Rolex will be left holding the bag with all these excess inventory. The market price would drop like a rock, and the brand image would be damaged.
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Old 15 October 2021, 08:34 PM   #38
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I agree with the gist of it … my AD basically says the same
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Old 15 October 2021, 08:47 PM   #39
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I agree with the gist of it … my AD basically says the same
Yep, 100%
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Old 15 October 2021, 09:48 PM   #40
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I have known Seddiqi for many years, and I believe this article is on point. Demand is extremely high. A number of people are just buying expensive watches as investments rather than timepieces to wear. The other day I was in a large dealership here in New York and the owner said that someone he did not know came in recently and purchased 15 Patek Philippe watches, without asking for specific models, not asking the price until he was presented with the final invoice which he paid and left with the watches. Very strange market indeed.
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Old 16 October 2021, 12:03 AM   #41
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Though there aren't anything unexpected, a nice interview/article nevertheless. It really is just that demand has soared through the roof in recent years and supply couldn't catch up, for me it's more interesting to explore what factored into this monstrous surge of demand in relatively short span of time.
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Old 16 October 2021, 03:12 AM   #42
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I have known Seddiqi for many years, and I believe this article is on point. Demand is extremely high. A number of people are just buying expensive watches as investments rather than timepieces to wear. The other day I was in a large dealership here in New York and the owner said that someone he did not know came in recently and purchased 15 Patek Philippe watches, without asking for specific models, not asking the price until he was presented with the final invoice which he paid and left with the watches. Very strange market indeed.
An unknown customer purchases 15 Pateks sight unseen, walks out the door with them…hmmm
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Old 16 October 2021, 03:21 AM   #43
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Here's one of the interviews he gave last fall. He went into greater depth in the NY Times article and some of the others he gave at the time. I don't fully understand the mechanics of it, so I am sure I mis-represented some of that...
I don't want to go too far OT here, but I found that snippet and the topic in general interesting, will look into it more as a result.

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An unknown customer purchases 15 Pateks sight unseen, walks out the door with them…hmmm
I recall reading an article recently that talked about how watches were being used a currency in crime syndicates since they had an internationally well understood value yet were not nearly as traceable as cash. Buying 15 without even asking about pricing certainly smells a bit like that...
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Old 16 October 2021, 03:26 AM   #44
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Money wins.

If you help the dealer sell $x amount of "slow seller", then PP or Rolex popular model watches will magically show up and be available to you. Doesn't matter if you are grey dealer, secondary retailer, preferred customers, a friend of a friend, etc. :)

How difficult for people to understand?

I don't understand why people have the dream that this is a "fair game"? Or try to convince people that dealer is on the "customer's side"? The dealer is on the "money side", you help them make money, then you are a friend to them. Otherwise, if they are a nice, they will put your name down on a "list". If a particular watch show up, and somehow all the "preferred" customers ahead of you pass on it, then you will get the call.
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Old 16 October 2021, 04:49 AM   #45
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Sorry never believe anything you read on the net or from the likes of so called watchpro.
FTFY.

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Of course Rolex kept their "largest dealer" in a vitally important market supplied as normal.
Excellent point.

And the dealer in question is in Dubai, which is not exactly representative of a typical retail market.
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Old 16 October 2021, 07:50 AM   #46
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Money wins.

If you help the dealer sell $x amount of "slow seller", then PP or Rolex popular model watches will magically show up and be available to you. Doesn't matter if you are grey dealer, secondary retailer, preferred customers, a friend of a friend, etc. :)

How difficult for people to understand?

I don't understand why people have the dream that this is a "fair game"? Or try to convince people that dealer is on the "customer's side"? The dealer is on the "money side", you help them make money, then you are a friend to them. Otherwise, if they are a nice, they will put your name down on a "list". If a particular watch show up, and somehow all the "preferred" customers ahead of you pass on it, then you will get the call.
This is the truth that some people just don't seem to comprehend or want to recognize.
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Old 16 October 2021, 11:32 AM   #47
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Conspiracy theorists are all over the Internet it seems.
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Old 16 October 2021, 07:57 PM   #48
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Not my experience - several individuals on the W/L at ADs will never get the call as they've been subtly caught flipping. They may just be wondering why their name never comes up for that sub anymore.........
This article seems pretty accurate - it's just the conspiracy theorists on TRF will never accept that this is a problem of social media's making not Rolex themselves. Rolex will slowly try and ramp up supply over the next 5 years I'd imagine but not 50%, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as some would like. They just won't want to put the brand at risk if a big slump happens and they would have to close factories etc.
I think we are saying the same thing.
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Old 16 October 2021, 10:38 PM   #49
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I don't want to go too far OT here, but I found that snippet and the topic in general interesting, will look into it more as a result.



I recall reading an article recently that talked about how watches were being used a currency in crime syndicates since they had an internationally well understood value yet were not nearly as traceable as cash. Buying 15 without even asking about pricing certainly smells a bit like that...
Your reply to my post prompts two comments:

1) I had not heard of the organized crime connection; my point, evidently not clearly stated, was the story of someone walking in to a reputable, high end watch dealer and walking out with 15 Pateks, at what? $250,000 in value? $350,000? $400,000? To me the story is not believable.

2) How are watches far less traceable than cash? The initial conversion at the AD is a recorded transaction, unless the buyer wheels in a cart load of cash, which defeats the purpose.
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Old 17 October 2021, 12:48 AM   #50
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Money wins.

If you help the dealer sell $x amount of "slow seller", then PP or Rolex popular model watches will magically show up and be available to you. Doesn't matter if you are grey dealer, secondary retailer, preferred customers, a friend of a friend, etc. :)

How difficult for people to understand?

I don't understand why people have the dream that this is a "fair game"? Or try to convince people that dealer is on the "customer's side"? The dealer is on the "money side", you help them make money, then you are a friend to them. Otherwise, if they are a nice, they will put your name down on a "list". If a particular watch show up, and somehow all the "preferred" customers ahead of you pass on it, then you will get the call.
EXACTLY RIGHT! This fantasy land of ‘relationships’ with my SA/AD are complete horse pucks. They have merchandise. We have money. Traditionally the two are exchanged. The end.
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Old 17 October 2021, 06:54 AM   #51
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It's funny, with all this demand, that would mean they are selling more units than in the old days, yet I don't see more new Rolexes in the wild than I did 10 years ago. In fact, I definitely see less. I saw more Subs, GMTs, and Daytonas (steel and PM) 10 years ago out and about than I do today. Think about whether that is true for you too, and where all these watches have disappeared to.
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Old 17 October 2021, 07:19 AM   #52
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It's funny, with all this demand, that would mean they are selling more units than in the old days, yet I don't see more new Rolexes in the wild than I did 10 years ago. In fact, I definitely see less. I saw more Subs, GMTs, and Daytonas (steel and PM) 10 years ago out and about than I do today. Think about whether that is true for you too, and where all these watches have disappeared to.
Hidden away with high hopes of big returns $$
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Old 17 October 2021, 08:34 AM   #53
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[QUOTE=edisonstar23;11758051]Agreed! I personally believe that all the money printing the fed it’s doing and distributing through pandemic relief programs has created an increased demand for all goods and services including luxury goods.

So I believe that the demand has increased
/QUOTE]

I agree. Plus Rolex shut down for a period. And there are problems everywhere, as the economy reopens after COVID. Rolex are not the only shortages. There are shortages of all kinds of products.

These are not normal times. But people wear blinkers and think what is happening now will calontinue into the future...
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Old 17 October 2021, 08:43 AM   #54
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[QUOTE=johnwigan;11762318]
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Originally Posted by edisonstar23 View Post
Agreed! I personally believe that all the money printing the fed it’s doing and distributing through pandemic relief programs has created an increased demand for all goods and services including luxury goods.

So I believe that the demand has increased
/QUOTE]

I agree. Plus Rolex shut down for a period. And there are problems everywhere, as the economy reopens after COVID. Rolex are not the only shortages. There are shortages of all kinds of products.

These are not normal times. But people wear blinkers and think what is happening now will calontinue into the future...
The same market trends and consumer behavior were present before COVID19. The Rolex retail/secondary market currently will not change until consumer behavior changes first.

Stop flipping. Stop paying the premiums. Or the flogging continues.
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Old 17 October 2021, 10:10 AM   #55
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It's funny, with all this demand, that would mean they are selling more units than in the old days, yet I don't see more new Rolexes in the wild than I did 10 years ago. In fact, I definitely see less. I saw more Subs, GMTs, and Daytonas (steel and PM) 10 years ago out and about than I do today. Think about whether that is true for you too, and where all these watches have disappeared to.
It is likely is that many of today’s buyers are far more occasional wearers than buyers of the past.

So it is possible to sell twice as many watches and see only half as many in the wild.

And a large number possibly never even get worn, either by intention or a fear of damaging it.

I actually think they’re still really common in large metropolitan areas.


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Old 17 October 2021, 10:25 AM   #56
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The shortages has been here for a decade or longer for the Daytona and then more SS professional models in the line started to have models start to get difficult to find approximately 4 years ago. This shortage then started to effect most all models 2 years ago. I believe when enthusiast saw this happening they started buying multiple models that just exacerbated the market 3 years ago. Now a new breed of buyers joined the frenzy to buy and make a quick flip 1.5 years ago. Today it’s a all out thunderdome that we saw escalate progressively for years now. It’s actually been rather predictable from an enthusiast point of view if you were paying attention. Long time enthusiast including myself were in denial remembering the good old days and predicted they would return. They are not. It’s a completely new market and landscape for the brand of Rolex just like you are never going to see 99cent a gallon of gas again.
Demand is only going up and Rolex is intentionally moving the brand more upscale in the process. Rolex is not going to suddenly open the floodgates in manufacturing to produce more watches. Rolex is the king because they are a long term player with protecting and positioning their brand. The market has spoken and is now accustom to paying the current prices. Rolex is now more of a veblen good than ever before and now the brand is even more attractive to very wealthy customers that won’t care paying $50k for a hot model which will only drive its price even higher. If Rolex raised their msrp by 50%, it wouldn’t change anything or slow their demand down. It might even drive their desirability even more. There are other fine obtainable brands that follow typical supply and demand rules of manufacturing with watches just sitting in the cases. Perception is reality and if the 5711 can go to $100k so can Rolex with their hot models with even more famous and historical models. It doesn’t take a MBA to know what happens if Rolex slows down the production of the Daytona even more???? Rolex is selling their DateJust more now than ever before as their days of sitting in the display case have disappeared.
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Old 18 October 2021, 11:41 AM   #57
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For the record. This was published by Bloomberg in March 2020.

“Swiss watch exports fell the most in eight months in February, with shipments to China and Hong Kong slumping 52% and 42% respectively, a report showed Thursday. The decline is set to worsen this month as the epicenter of the disease shifts to Europe, which now has more diagnosed cases than China.”

Funny how markets turn.


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Old 18 October 2021, 12:30 PM   #58
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I'd question they're claiming to be the worlds largest dealer ?
Watches of Switzerland/Goldsmiths must have a lot more dealers than Siddiqi have in the UAE?
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Old 18 October 2021, 03:38 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by HiBoost View Post
I don't want to go too far OT here, but I found that snippet and the topic in general interesting, will look into it more as a result.



I recall reading an article recently that talked about how watches were being used a currency in crime syndicates since they had an internationally well understood value yet were not nearly as traceable as cash. Buying 15 without even asking about pricing certainly smells a bit like that...
That's why auction prices are higher than grey - easier to launder money through the auction houses.
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Old 18 October 2021, 04:25 PM   #60
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That's why auction prices are higher than grey - easier to launder money through the auction houses.
Try taking half a million in currency through an airport then try wearing a Richard Mille costing the same price.
These watches have pretty much the same worth anywhere in the world and can be moved easily and undetected
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