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15 October 2021, 06:13 AM | #31 | |
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https://www.npr.org/2020/08/09/90067...is-fed-preside The United States has now surpassed five million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 160,000 deaths from the virus as tens of millions of Americans file for unemployment, causing experts to debate how the nation should respond. Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says the answer should be a return to mandated lockdowns in every state for up to six weeks in an effort to save both lives and the economy. "If we aren't willing to take this action, millions more cases with many more deaths are likely before a vaccine might be available," Kashkari wrote in a New York Times op-ed on Friday alongside Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Kashkari says lockdowns were having a positive effect during the spring. The problem, he told NPR's All Things Considered on Sunday, is that "we threw in the towel before the health officials had actually gotten control of the virus." Giving up too early cost the economy, says Kashkari. What the country needs now, he says, is "a more stringent, uniform lockdown state-by-state" until the virus can be brought under control. "Then we can return to normal economic activity with more confidence." Article continues after sponsor message Interview Highlights On the economic argument for a more strict lockdown The economic argument is what we're doing right now isn't working. We did a modest lockdown and then we let up far too quickly according to the public health experts, and now our economy is only very slowly recovering. Many people feel scared to go back into restaurants, so restaurants can't return to normal. We're not really going to be able to return to a robust economy until we get control of the virus, and at 50,000 cases a day it's spreading like wildfire throughout the country. So unfortunately, yes, a lockdown for six weeks would impose short term pain, but I believe we as a country can afford to support Americans through that short term lockdown so then we can reopen and have a vigorous economy, have kids returning to school. I want us to get back to a robust economy as quickly as possible. This is much faster than allowing the virus to spread uncontrolled. On the concern that increasing federal unemployment benefits will wrack up federal debt Well one of the things that has happened in this recession that is unlike any recession in modern times, our savings rate has taken off. It's really curious. Those of us, like me, who have been able to keep our jobs, we're actually saving more money because we're not going out to restaurants or movies or on vacations. So the personal savings rates soared from about 8% to 20%. The way it works is that money then gets put in the bank, or put into a money market fund, and those resources are available so that when the government runs deficits, it doesn't have to borrow as much from abroad because we're generating savings domestically. It is much safer for a country to fund its own government deficits from its own people than it is to borrow from abroad. So it turns out, we can actually fund the additional unemployment benefits, for example, or additional support to small businesses from our own domestic resources. That is much, much better than having to borrow it from abroad. So this recession is very unique in how we've shut down part of the economy because it's also generating savings that can support the workers who are most affected. I know it's complicated, but this is a unique moment when the traditional concerns about government deficits, debt to GDP, do not apply. Will Jarvis and Tinbete Ermyas produced and edited the audio version of this story. |
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15 October 2021, 07:10 AM | #32 | |
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This article seems pretty accurate - it's just the conspiracy theorists on TRF will never accept that this is a problem of social media's making not Rolex themselves. Rolex will slowly try and ramp up supply over the next 5 years I'd imagine but not 50%, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as some would like. They just won't want to put the brand at risk if a big slump happens and they would have to close factories etc. |
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15 October 2021, 07:28 AM | #33 |
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I love turtles..
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15 October 2021, 07:37 AM | #34 | |
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15 October 2021, 11:17 AM | #35 | |
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Another AD in central NJ with whom I am personally familiar says the same thing, that supply and mix of models is just fine, but demand is through the roof, up a bit from their existing customers and those in the area, but astronomical demand from out of state and people they have never dealt with previously.
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15 October 2021, 11:27 AM | #36 | |
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15 October 2021, 12:13 PM | #37 |
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I have to agree. There is no shortage in supply.
He said that demand has increased 3000x. But this spike in demand is not from enthusiasts or collectors. The world population did not wake up one day and decide to become watch collectors. This extra demand comes from people who don't know and don't really care about watches, but just the dollar signs that come with them. They are known by the familiar term... flippers. Rolex is correct in not increasing their production to cater to the increased demand by these flippers. Because if these flippers decide to do their flipping on other luxury goods, Rolex will be left holding the bag with all these excess inventory. The market price would drop like a rock, and the brand image would be damaged. |
15 October 2021, 08:34 PM | #38 |
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I agree with the gist of it … my AD basically says the same
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15 October 2021, 08:47 PM | #39 |
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15 October 2021, 09:48 PM | #40 |
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I have known Seddiqi for many years, and I believe this article is on point. Demand is extremely high. A number of people are just buying expensive watches as investments rather than timepieces to wear. The other day I was in a large dealership here in New York and the owner said that someone he did not know came in recently and purchased 15 Patek Philippe watches, without asking for specific models, not asking the price until he was presented with the final invoice which he paid and left with the watches. Very strange market indeed.
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16 October 2021, 12:03 AM | #41 |
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Though there aren't anything unexpected, a nice interview/article nevertheless. It really is just that demand has soared through the roof in recent years and supply couldn't catch up, for me it's more interesting to explore what factored into this monstrous surge of demand in relatively short span of time.
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16 October 2021, 03:12 AM | #42 | |
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16 October 2021, 03:21 AM | #43 | |
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I recall reading an article recently that talked about how watches were being used a currency in crime syndicates since they had an internationally well understood value yet were not nearly as traceable as cash. Buying 15 without even asking about pricing certainly smells a bit like that... |
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16 October 2021, 03:26 AM | #44 |
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Money wins.
If you help the dealer sell $x amount of "slow seller", then PP or Rolex popular model watches will magically show up and be available to you. Doesn't matter if you are grey dealer, secondary retailer, preferred customers, a friend of a friend, etc. :) How difficult for people to understand? I don't understand why people have the dream that this is a "fair game"? Or try to convince people that dealer is on the "customer's side"? The dealer is on the "money side", you help them make money, then you are a friend to them. Otherwise, if they are a nice, they will put your name down on a "list". If a particular watch show up, and somehow all the "preferred" customers ahead of you pass on it, then you will get the call.
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16 October 2021, 04:49 AM | #45 | ||
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And the dealer in question is in Dubai, which is not exactly representative of a typical retail market.
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16 October 2021, 07:50 AM | #46 | |
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16 October 2021, 11:32 AM | #47 |
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Conspiracy theorists are all over the Internet it seems.
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16 October 2021, 07:57 PM | #48 | |
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16 October 2021, 10:38 PM | #49 | |
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1) I had not heard of the organized crime connection; my point, evidently not clearly stated, was the story of someone walking in to a reputable, high end watch dealer and walking out with 15 Pateks, at what? $250,000 in value? $350,000? $400,000? To me the story is not believable. 2) How are watches far less traceable than cash? The initial conversion at the AD is a recorded transaction, unless the buyer wheels in a cart load of cash, which defeats the purpose.
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17 October 2021, 12:48 AM | #50 | |
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17 October 2021, 06:54 AM | #51 |
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It's funny, with all this demand, that would mean they are selling more units than in the old days, yet I don't see more new Rolexes in the wild than I did 10 years ago. In fact, I definitely see less. I saw more Subs, GMTs, and Daytonas (steel and PM) 10 years ago out and about than I do today. Think about whether that is true for you too, and where all these watches have disappeared to.
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17 October 2021, 07:19 AM | #52 | |
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17 October 2021, 08:34 AM | #53 |
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[QUOTE=edisonstar23;11758051]Agreed! I personally believe that all the money printing the fed it’s doing and distributing through pandemic relief programs has created an increased demand for all goods and services including luxury goods.
So I believe that the demand has increased /QUOTE] I agree. Plus Rolex shut down for a period. And there are problems everywhere, as the economy reopens after COVID. Rolex are not the only shortages. There are shortages of all kinds of products. These are not normal times. But people wear blinkers and think what is happening now will calontinue into the future... |
17 October 2021, 08:43 AM | #54 | |
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[QUOTE=johnwigan;11762318]
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Stop flipping. Stop paying the premiums. Or the flogging continues. |
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17 October 2021, 10:10 AM | #55 | |
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So it is possible to sell twice as many watches and see only half as many in the wild. And a large number possibly never even get worn, either by intention or a fear of damaging it. I actually think they’re still really common in large metropolitan areas. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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17 October 2021, 10:25 AM | #56 |
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The shortages has been here for a decade or longer for the Daytona and then more SS professional models in the line started to have models start to get difficult to find approximately 4 years ago. This shortage then started to effect most all models 2 years ago. I believe when enthusiast saw this happening they started buying multiple models that just exacerbated the market 3 years ago. Now a new breed of buyers joined the frenzy to buy and make a quick flip 1.5 years ago. Today it’s a all out thunderdome that we saw escalate progressively for years now. It’s actually been rather predictable from an enthusiast point of view if you were paying attention. Long time enthusiast including myself were in denial remembering the good old days and predicted they would return. They are not. It’s a completely new market and landscape for the brand of Rolex just like you are never going to see 99cent a gallon of gas again.
Demand is only going up and Rolex is intentionally moving the brand more upscale in the process. Rolex is not going to suddenly open the floodgates in manufacturing to produce more watches. Rolex is the king because they are a long term player with protecting and positioning their brand. The market has spoken and is now accustom to paying the current prices. Rolex is now more of a veblen good than ever before and now the brand is even more attractive to very wealthy customers that won’t care paying $50k for a hot model which will only drive its price even higher. If Rolex raised their msrp by 50%, it wouldn’t change anything or slow their demand down. It might even drive their desirability even more. There are other fine obtainable brands that follow typical supply and demand rules of manufacturing with watches just sitting in the cases. Perception is reality and if the 5711 can go to $100k so can Rolex with their hot models with even more famous and historical models. It doesn’t take a MBA to know what happens if Rolex slows down the production of the Daytona even more???? Rolex is selling their DateJust more now than ever before as their days of sitting in the display case have disappeared.
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18 October 2021, 11:41 AM | #57 |
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For the record. This was published by Bloomberg in March 2020.
“Swiss watch exports fell the most in eight months in February, with shipments to China and Hong Kong slumping 52% and 42% respectively, a report showed Thursday. The decline is set to worsen this month as the epicenter of the disease shifts to Europe, which now has more diagnosed cases than China.” Funny how markets turn. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
18 October 2021, 12:30 PM | #58 |
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I'd question they're claiming to be the worlds largest dealer ?
Watches of Switzerland/Goldsmiths must have a lot more dealers than Siddiqi have in the UAE? |
18 October 2021, 03:38 PM | #59 | |
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18 October 2021, 04:25 PM | #60 | |
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These watches have pretty much the same worth anywhere in the world and can be moved easily and undetected |
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