When will the Rolex bubble burst?

[teck21]

Everyone’s an expert, so let’s see who the true experts are!

See if this thread will age as badly as the ones from 2019 so confidently predicting the end was nigh for crazy Rolex prices.

For the purpose of simplicity and clarity, a bursting of the so-called Rolex bubble would refer to a sudden and sharp drop in the resale price for a BNIB Rolex panda Daytona ref 116500LN.

This model has been selected as being the most representative proxy for overall Rolex pricing.

The assumption is that the price now is US$31,000 for BNIB and a bursting of the bubble will lead to a fall in its price by 30% or more when the bubble does burst.

Your reasons for a collapse (or a non collapse) are irrelevant, simply whether you call a bubble and when you expect it to burst using the above point of reference.

1) 2021-2022
2) 2023-2024
3) beyond that, or never. What bubble?
4) too stupid to make a call

Yes, beyond 3 years was put together with never because calling a bubble 3 years early is actually no sign of astuteness or accurate predicting at all. It’s no better than saying it must burst at some point.

Experts abound here.


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[teck21]

4


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[WalterW]

Tomorrow at 6:28 pm

[WalterW]

I sure hope this ages like fine wine. Don’t want to be an embarrassment to the community

[ks58]

Hmmm, I'll go with 2. I think 2024. You may not ask for a reason, but I'd postulate that Rolex will somehow get control of the flippers and grey dealers which will help bring the price down a bit, but still over retail.

[JohnGingerwood]

4.
I remember thinking people were crazy spending 18-20k on a Daytona. Now they were smart.

[zewill]

Originally Posted by WalterW

I sure hope this ages like fine wine. Don’t want to be an embarrassment to the community

Why simply give a date when bubble will burst when we can also bet on it going back up…

I have consulted crystal ball and :
-market will decrease 5% in 2022 and 10% in last quarter 2022 due to recession
-COVID20 will then reignite scarcity on dumb products while regular folk suffer and Rolex will then increase 15% in 2nd quarter 2024

All in all, I see an overall 11% increase in the 5th quarter of 2025 compared to today’s prices. Best invest in crapcoin, another spinoff from dogecoin.
Thank you

[Mystro]

The bubble is actually a balloon and it’s only only going up. When the secondary market says a model is priced too high is when we hold there momentarily and adjust but it will continue to rise but at a slower rate. The only thing you have to worry about is the Rolex reputation. As long as the company guards its reputation and positions it correctly, it’s perception is solid as a rock.

[zewill]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The bubble is actually a balloon and it’s only only going up. When the secondary market says a model is priced too high is when we hold there momentarily and adjust but it will continue to rise but at a slower rate. The only thing you have to worry about is the Rolex reputation. As long as the company guards its reputation and positions it correctly, it’s perception is solid as a rock.

A baloon always goes down. Maybe then you need another metaphor.

[Pw92676]

The bubble will burst when it doesn’t consume people 24/7.

[m3tek44]

2008-2009.

[Sothy]

For definitional purposes — if one predicts that prices will go down for a couple of years, but a decade from now prices will be right where they are now, is that still a bubble bursting? (Japanese stock market price to earnings ratio hasn’t recovered from its burst bubble, but real estate in (parts of at least) North America recovered from the 2008/9 financial crisis. Just want to know before I look stupid :-).

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by zewill

A baloon always goes down. Maybe then you need another metaphor.

It’s a titanium balloon powered by a mini nuclear fission engine.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Sothy

For definitional purposes — if one predicts that prices will go down for a couple of years, but a decade from now prices will be right where they are now, is that still a bubble bursting? (Japanese stock market price to earnings ratio hasn’t recovered from its burst bubble, but real estate in (parts of at least) North America recovered from the 2008/9 financial crisis. Just want to know before I look stupid :-).

Not looking that far ahead, simply whether the resale price for a BNIB Panda will take a 30% or greater dump by the end of 2024 or thereabouts.

Whether or not that slump lasts 3 months, 6 months, 2 years or ends up like japan’s economy since 1990 does not matter for the purpose of this exercise in prediction.


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[TheVTCGuy]

Start a survey with this thread, I would be interested in the percentages of the responses.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Start a survey with this thread, I would be interested in the percentages of the responses.

I will attempt to update actual selections, and when a post can reasonably be inferred as having made a valid selection.

Everybody should feel free to take this task up instead!

Slim pickings so far.

People seem far more reticent in calling a bubble when asked to call when it’s going to burst.

Letting selections end by 31 Dec 2021 seems like a reasonable time.

Unless of course the great implosion occurs by then, in which case selectors of option 1 rejoice.


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[Laszlo]

Only if the economy goes completely belly up will things change.

[joejet]

I think we will see a levelling out of prices except maybe some really hyped pieces like the batman, pepsi and panda, they might go down a bit say 10% -15% but only in the short term.

The old grey dealers who have been in the industry a long time will sit on inventory as some have very deep pockets and wait till they get the prices they want. We will see some new internet dealers losing out as they only deal in hype at low profit, unless they diversify.

However the new generation of buyers are heavenly into bitcoin / crypto. With the expected gains and institutional money going into that there will be a lot of new money around. New money always buy Rolex same as in the 80’s and early 2000’s.

Rolex will also increase prices over the next 5 years + 10-20% maybe more as we will have much higher interest rates and inflation. The retail price will increase and the grey’s profits will be less. But in 20 or so years all those who could not buy in there early 20’s will crave the watches of their youth and there we go again… up up and away.

so 3

[garyk]

A lot about hype on the forums. Hype is a form of marketing and these forums produce a lot of hype which benefits the people selling watches.

We have some helium balloons we use to scare off woodpeckers who peck at our house siding…

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The bubble is actually a balloon and it’s only only going up. When the secondary market says a model is priced too high is when we hold there momentarily and adjust but it will continue to rise but at a slower rate. The only thing you have to worry about is the Rolex reputation. As long as the company guards its reputation and positions it correctly, it’s perception is solid as a rock.

This is the correct answer.

When will the Ferrari bubble burst, or Lamborghini, or Hermès, etc. The only thing that will cause a reset to Rolex pricing is an asteroid hitting earth.

[Bizcut1]

Yawn

[Roli4life]

When Rolex can meet the demand. or people stop wanting Rolex (which is never) but there is that whole apocalypse thing. Now that could throw a wrench into it.

[mew]

No idea and I don’t think the impact will be the same across all models if it were to ever happen.

OPs and DJ would probably be more impacted in a correction than say a Daytona.

[Boaters]

Is there nothing other than flipping when is the bubble going to burst or how much is my watch worth today to talk about. Put on one of your nice timepieces pop a cold one and enjoy the day

[TimepieceRPP]

When crypto and stock markets bubble burst. Haha
Also if Rolex production hasn't increased, it is hardly burst but guess will cool down the gray market

[edisonstar23]

Hard to say! But I think most will agree that a Daytonas trading for over double retail isn’t sustainable. Unless the amount of wealth keeps on going up to still create the same demand.

I think that we are at a peak of an economic bubble where most people as you can see within this post are very confident and feel that we are in a very prosperous economy. BUT HISTORY REPEATS itsself and our economy has behaved this way for the past 200 years and I predict the Economy to take a massive hit. By 2024 we will start feeling the effects of CoVid, effects of inflation, etc etc. Therefore, I predict Daytona Prices to start trading by then a little over retail.

I can’t believe people think that we are not in for a correction- not only on luxury watches but on Everything.


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[Cigars&Watches]

I’m not sure but I don’t think we will see the days of walking into an AD and picking up a professional SS coming back. As long as Rolex keeps production and prices steady the new norm will be buying a PM or TT (higher margins) in order to qualify one.

[RolexSimon]

Originally Posted by Cigars&Watches

I’m not sure but I don’t think we will see the days of walking into an AD and picking up a professional SS coming back. As long as Rolex keeps production and prices steady the new norm will be buying a PM or TT (higher margins) in order to qualify one.

This - and the %age markup for Grey will continue to increase along with the increasing world population.

[Gab27]

4 - I am too stupid to make the call. I have absolutely no idea if or when.

[Sandpit]

So this is a change of mind for me as I’ve been one of those predicting a crash for some time….but here goes.

As long as there’s money to be made, the ball will keep rolling. It doesn’t even necessarily have to be about the flipping, people who have no interest in reselling their watches can solidly rely on a Rolex to (at minimum) keep up with inflation. I think the days of buying a Rolex (say a DJ for example) and it losing 30% once worn are well behind us.

I personally don’t subscribe to the investment mentality, but it makes it a very easy decision for somebody that is on the fence over spending $10k upwards on a watch to know it will store its value. I honestly can’t see that going away. Rolex is now too big a brand. If heavy depreciation comes back, then something has gone horribly wrong.