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Old 17 October 2021, 10:39 PM   #61
jestrada
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NEVER. Not even a freaking pandemic that forced people to stay home for the better part of a year which put a lot of uncertainty in most markets burst it, what makes us think that anything less than a mass level extinction event will do it; That or perhaps a sudden diminished Rolex brand preference by the so-called “hypebeasts” and profiteers. Take your pick which between the 2 is a more likely occurence


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Old 17 October 2021, 10:41 PM   #62
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Isn't the price of BNB 116500 Daytona "panda" more like 34k to 36K right now?
116500LN Panda is $39k to above $40k this past month and this is before the Holliday bump. Pre own is at $36k+ and more surprising even just the watch (without box/papers) are $35k. I have been following them for over a year now extremely close.

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Old 17 October 2021, 10:47 PM   #63
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NEVER. Not even a freaking pandemic that forced people to stay home for the better part of a year which put a lot of uncertainty in most markets burst it, what makes us think that anything less than a mass level extinction event will do it; That or perhaps a sudden diminished Rolex brand preference by the so-called “hypebeasts” and profiteers. Take your pick which between the 2 is a more likely occurence


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There most definitely was a big impact when Covid hit. Daytonas dropped to $17-18k. I recall BLNR GMTs down at $11-12k.

Ok these prices were temporary, but they were very real. Obviosuly in hindsight it was the time to buy, but there was a lot of fear in the market - both watches and stocks.
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Old 17 October 2021, 11:05 PM   #64
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It's "never" going to burst. For that to happen, you'd need demand to collapse on an apolyptic level. Talking about a bubble burst is like talking about the end of our civilisation. Theoretically, anything's possible but what's the probability?
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Old 17 October 2021, 11:35 PM   #65
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i wonder how many here work in the finance industry, i also wonder if this comment will even be read, unlikely, so i shall i keep it brief:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR

your 'time pieces' are nothing more than an asset class that have appreciated due to the above. If/when there is another recession, the least of your worries will be whether you can 'walk in' and buy an SS from your local AD.

I remember viewing a house in 2009, I was almost swayed by the owner's story, and the potential of the land it came with, until he also said that his car (2001 or so 360 3.6) would be included in the deal... read into that what you will.

Consider where the average rolex owner wants to project wealth - downwards. What happens when there is no wealth to project, for the average rolex owner? :)
why is it not a good deal for the land and cars?
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Old 17 October 2021, 11:39 PM   #66
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My fear is this is no longer a bubble. Welcome to the new normal in terms of the AD experience. Especially if people keep flipping.
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Old 17 October 2021, 11:45 PM   #67
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Old 17 October 2021, 11:49 PM   #68
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I badly missed on my predictions for the effect of the pandemic, back in mid-2020 and so I think I'm going to sit this one out.

That being said, I'm socking away money in several different places and am ready with resources should the bubble burst.
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Old 17 October 2021, 11:53 PM   #69
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Exactly.

And yet some people think the price of grey market Rolexes cannot down. Crazy. Just crazy. You will be able to walk into an AD and buy at RRP, or even get a discount. Don't now when exactly but it is coming, sure of that.
I don’t think anyone is saying the won’t come DOWN, but they’re not coming down to the levels people are hoping/dreaming…..
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The Rolex factories are shut down for an indefinite period. They have also demonstrated in the past that they know how to control production to keep the price of their product high.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:00 AM   #70
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Doubt we’ll see it coming
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:05 AM   #71
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I don't know where people see a bubble.
I see a market of supply and demand.
There is less on one side than on the other, for various reasons, with the result.

There are many people who wait 3 years or more, others who pay the price for immediate availability. The first category waste time and uncertainty, gain fun and money but sometimes it never happens. So the latter have understood that they lose nothing at least and have immediate satisfaction. So turns the wheel.
See you in a few years, with all your missed opportunities and even crazier prices

Not to mention vintage, where there is still a parallel market, a kind of game between collectors and rarities, which will never weaken.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:06 AM   #72
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Good grief, we are talking about mass produced fashion baubles here. I must be old because I remember when wearing a Rolex was considered tacky by the masses and only Columbian drug lords wore the gold ones. We are in a hype fueled, social media influenced phase. Everybody wants one until they get bored with the hype. And contrary to popular belief, it is a very, very small part of the overall market that is OK spending 10-100K on a watch, so the pop could come quick and fast once the speculators bolt. Same thing with Porsches and Ferrari's.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:10 AM   #73
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If the insanity didn't stop at the heart of the covid pandemic, I can't imagine anything other than WW3. As we speak, insane amounts of wealth are being created and luxury items are the target of choice for those with deep pockets.
I took my wife to our high-end shopping mall yesterday. Gucci, Hermès, and Louis Vuitton have ropes and poles set up to maintain stand-in lines, extremely long, waiting for the opportunity to spend big on high-end bags and shoes. The lines were so long they wrapped around multiple times to hold the large number of shoppers. The moderate to lower-end stores were empty. Crypto and cannabis are creating and adding new luxury buyers into the mix, along with new government handouts. This my friends is the new normal, buy now, in two years you will have wished you did.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:16 AM   #74
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Right now the ADs are totally empty all over the world. So just returning to inventory in the stores is a massive change which the ADs I talk to do not see happening anytime time soon.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:17 AM   #75
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Let’s be honest with these “end of bubble” threads. These have been a TRF staple now for 4 years and every time someone brings up the housing market or any other example, the Rolex market continued up. This has become a therapeutic release for those still in disbelief of what’s going on.
So many insisted emphatically Covid was going to bring the Rolex market back to where it was 5 years ago. The difference between Rolex 10 years ago and Rolex today is that Rolex is a stronger Veblen good now and has absolutely nothing to do with what other watch brands do in the market. All those other brands are is in a race for second place. That’s not fanboy talking but the power and longevity of the Rolex brand internationally. Only Rolex by doing something internally can jeopardize their market value.

I have been with Rolex over 30 years now and I admit we are in a completely new ballgame than anything in Rolex history. So there’s nothing to look back on and draw any experience from regardless of your experience with the brand. The next rookie mistake is to compare the power of the Rolex brand to other brands. Rolex as a brand, is in a completely different league in how it is managed and maintained.
I don’t believe most people have enough experience to truly understand how Veblen goods work or how within the Veblen goods there are different strengths of market power.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:19 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by 4 Aussies View Post
If the insanity didn't stop at the heart of the covid pandemic, I can't imagine anything other than WW3. As we speak, insane amounts of wealth are being created and luxury items are the target of choice for those with deep pockets.
I took my wife to our high-end shopping mall yesterday. Gucci, Hermès, and Louis Vuitton have ropes and poles set up to maintain stand-in lines, extremely long, waiting for the opportunity to spend big on high-end bags and shoes. The lines were so long they wrapped around multiple times to hold the large number of shoppers. The moderate to lower-end stores were empty. Crypto and cannabis are creating and adding new luxury buyers into the mix, along with new government handouts. This my friends is the new normal, buy now, in two years you will have wished you did.
The line is a new phenomena, the new norm for now. Using covid as an excuse they will likely try to implement this permanently, what better advertising than a line? Personally there is nothing luxurious about waiting in line to spend money. Lines to me represent less exclusivity. I'll pass.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:22 AM   #77
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it won’t burst. Simple. Stupid thread.
+1
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:25 AM   #78
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When we see non exhibition Stainless steel sport models in the case for sale.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:26 AM   #79
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It'll take a general recession at this point. To those saying "well the Rolex market survived Covid", take a look at how the wider markets reacted to Covid. There was a brief, sharp dip and things then rebounded extremely quickly. It was exactly the same situation in the watch market.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:29 AM   #80
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When we see non exhibition Stainless steel sport models in the case for sale.
And there you go. When conservative Rolex puts out dummy watches for display to help their authorized dealers have something in the display case, this is proof that Rolex knows this is now the new normal for their brand. Rolex is the master and I’m confident if they invested money in dummy watches, this confirms their display cases are not going to have hot models in them ever again. Even the mass produced and common DateJust doesn’t fill their cases anymore.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:36 AM   #81
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The bubble will burst when it doesn’t consume people 24/7.
I hope it doesn’t burst…I actually like the exclusivity and how the brand rewards dedicated Rolex owners…. However this was the most interesting comment.. demand will shift when people aren’t consumed 24/7 with buying “things”
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:39 AM   #82
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And there you go. When conservative Rolex puts out dummy watches for display to help their authorized dealers have something in the display case, this is proof that Rolex knows this is now the new normal for their brand. Rolex is the master and I’m confident if they invested money in dummy watches, this confirms their display cases are not going to have hot models in them ever again. Even the mass produced and common DateJust doesn’t fill their cases anymore.
I think you're right. New world of luxury consumption, use dummies to keep the displays looking full. The good old days are over and not coming back, unreal.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:41 AM   #83
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batman dropped to below 13k(now over 18k), pepsi dropped to below 17k(now over 23k) during the middle phase of the pandemic. do you consider this bubble burst?
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:49 AM   #84
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i wonder how many here work in the finance industry
Not many I think.


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i also wonder if this comment will even be read,
)
Read - yes. Understood - ?
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:50 AM   #85
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I think you're right. New world of luxury consumption, use dummies to keep the displays looking full. The good old days are over and not coming back, unreal.
I was leading the charge 4+ years ago saying the inflated cost of Rolex won’t last. After I put my decades of comfortable purchasing knowledge aside, I started to refocus in trends of particular models and how the new buyers attitude was adapting without question. I probably was the last to buy a LVC/Hulk below msrp and then in 3 months the entire market place changed and started to accelerate up daily. Being a air cooled 911 collector I was seeing a similar trend but at a much less fevered rate than where Rolex was heading. I sold a few of my less desirable air cooled 911 models last year and was literally laughing all the way to the bank. I won’t make any public prediction with the hot Rolex models in how far they will probably go up but I am not waiting anymore for them to go down and I am kicking myself why I didn’t buy a platinum Daytona when I had the chance a few years back. Even though these watches are not investments, I have done very well in buying and selling various companies I have owned over the years to now trust my gut when it comes to market trends.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:52 AM   #86
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Let’s be honest with these “end of bubble” threads. These have been a TRF staple now for 4 years and every time someone brings up the housing market or any other example, the Rolex market continued up. This has become a therapeutic release for those still in disbelief of what’s going on.
So many insisted emphatically Covid was going to bring the Rolex market back to where it was 5 years ago. The difference between Rolex 10 years ago and Rolex today is that Rolex is a stronger Veblen good now and has absolutely nothing to do with what other watch brands do in the market. All those other brands are is in a race for second place. That’s not fanboy talking but the power and longevity of the Rolex brand internationally. Only Rolex by doing something internally can jeopardize their market value.

I have been with Rolex over 30 years now and I admit we are in a completely new ballgame than anything in Rolex history. So there’s nothing to look back on and draw any experience from regardless of your experience with the brand. The next rookie mistake is to compare the power of the Rolex brand to other brands. Rolex as a brand, is in a completely different league in how it is managed in maintained.
I don’t believe most people have enough experience to truly understand how Veblen goods work or how within the Veblen goods there are different strengths of market power.

100%
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:54 AM   #87
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Doubt we’ll see it coming
This.
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Old 18 October 2021, 12:59 AM   #88
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I was leading the charge 4+ years ago saying the inflated cost of Rolex won’t last. After I put my decades of comfortable purchasing knowledge aside, I started to refocus in trends of particular models and how the new buyers attitude was adapting without question. I probably was the last to buy a LVC/Hulk below msrp and then in 3 months the entire market place changed and started to accelerate up daily. Being a air cooled 911 collector I was seeing a similar trend but at a much less fevered rate than where Rolex was heading. I sold a few of my less desirable air cooled 911 models last year and was literally laughing all the way to the bank. I won’t make a public prediction where a few of the hot Rolex models will probably go but I am not waiting anymore for them to go down and I am kicking myself why I didn’t buy a platinum Daytona when I had the chance a few years back.
Lucky you. I haven't had any chance to buy Rolex at discount rate. Platona is always my dream watch and saw it at display windows all the time before the hype. Now I have some savings but no chance to get it.

I guess if can afford and like the models, then buy it.
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Old 18 October 2021, 01:00 AM   #89
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So this is a change of mind for me as I’ve been one of those predicting a crash for some time….but here goes.

As long as there’s money to be made, the ball will keep rolling. It doesn’t even necessarily have to be about the flipping, people who have no interest in reselling their watches can solidly rely on a Rolex to (at minimum) keep up with inflation. I think the days of buying a Rolex (say a DJ for example) and it losing 30% once worn are well behind us.

I personally don’t subscribe to the investment mentality, but it makes it a very easy decision for somebody that is on the fence over spending $10k upwards on a watch to know it will store its value. I honestly can’t see that going away. Rolex is now too big a brand. If heavy depreciation comes back, then something has gone horribly wrong.
Agreed.
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Old 18 October 2021, 01:53 AM   #90
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Something else that has occurred to me, is that if there really is a “crash” at some point it would likely be linked to a major global black swan event.

I don’t know about anybody else, but my investment portfolios are doing really well. I’d rather see strong prices and strong financial markets than the other way around.
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