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Old 19 October 2021, 11:04 AM   #121
teck21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ugoblue View Post
4 - but i'll throw out a few ideas

For the past decade:

Hype (web, youtube, blogs, forums, instagram) has been attracting new buyers for Rolex.

Certain demographics have used Rolex, Patek, etc. for conspicuous demonstration of bling.

Rising brokerage accounts have given more people the means to buy Rolex.

The same new buyers are interested in non-traditional "investments" (e.g. watches, bitcoin).

For investment or collecting purposes, people are now buying multiple Rolexes. Owning 6 Rolexes was very unusual 20 years ago. Not so much today. This really multiplies demand.

BUT:

Overall generational change is pushing a steady decline in the interest of wristwatches. Everyone owns the world's most accurate pocket watch - a phone. Wristwatches are a slightly practical fashion statement. Fashion changes.

All collecting fads eventually crest and recede because the collectors move on to other interests. When interests fade, the collectors will pare back from a dozen watches to just a few.

The selling model of Rolex AD network is sure to change. Maybe more direct sales, boutiques, etc. Prices will inflate.

It seems most likely that the long term trend will probably see the interest in Rolex crest at some point. But like the stock market, it is really hard to predict just when the crest is.

I do also wonder about the generational change thing, and how it is often suggested that the young are not interested in mechanical wrist watches.

While that is true, it is equally plausible that many of them have not considered the idea of wearing a Rolex simply because they have not attained the necessary financial wherewithal to obtain one.

I think that Rolex has repositioned itself well enough as a luxury item (in terms of branding, pricing and increasingly exclusivity by throttling supply etc) that I think it has met the smart watch challenge head on and come out stronger.

The only real danger to it is if a status symbol smart watch appears.

Until then, they have successfully positioned their watches as a unique piece of wrist jewellery for which they are the absolute leader bar none.

Fashion may change, but until people decide that the wrist is not a place they want to wear jewellery, Rolex is safe.

I look at the human body and can’t think of many other places one could wear jewellery for others to see. Especially for men.


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Old 19 October 2021, 05:01 PM   #122
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The world wide population is around 7.9 billion people. 1.27% of the population have an interest of purchasing a Rolex watch, thats 100 million people. It is understood that Rolex can only produce a little over a million watches a year. So….. no, I dont think the bubble will burst any time soon.
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Old 19 October 2021, 05:25 PM   #123
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It’s been answered already, watch and learn.
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Old 19 October 2021, 05:59 PM   #124
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When someone gets a needle and pricks the balloon.
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Old 20 October 2021, 07:51 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by teck21 View Post
Everyone’s an expert, so let’s see who the true experts are!

See if this thread will age as badly as the ones from 2019 so confidently predicting the end was nigh for crazy Rolex prices.

For the purpose of simplicity and clarity, a bursting of the so-called Rolex bubble would refer to a sudden and sharp drop in the resale price for a BNIB Rolex panda Daytona ref 116500LN.

This model has been selected as being the most representative proxy for overall Rolex pricing.

The assumption is that the price now is US$31,000 for BNIB and a bursting of the bubble will lead to a fall in its price by 30% or more when the bubble does burst.

Your reasons for a collapse (or a non collapse) are irrelevant, simply whether you call a bubble and when you expect it to burst using the above point of reference.

1) 2021-2022
2) 2023-2024
3) beyond that, or never. What bubble?
4) too stupid to make a call

Yes, beyond 3 years was put together with never because calling a bubble 3 years early is actually no sign of astuteness or accurate predicting at all. It’s no better than saying it must burst at some point.

Experts abound here.


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I have no doubt that it will explode at any moment. The same supply of thousands and thousands of watches now in the possession of gray dealers makes me think that. I would particularly like to buy a Rolex but I would not pay a penny more than the list price. If I pay a premium I think I would not be calm at all. IMUO.
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Old 20 October 2021, 07:54 AM   #126
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There are roughly 260 working days a year. That means Rolex churns out around 3,000+ watches a day…

If that’s not mass produced then I don’t know what is

They are nice watches though
My definition of "not mass produced" would include something made in a quantity of millions but unavailable other than at triple price.
Think Coors beer on the east coast 30 years ago. Of course when we finally got it we realized it wasn't even worth retail!
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Old 28 October 2021, 01:10 AM   #127
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The only ones who have their thumb on the wrist of this are the Major Grey Market dealers.

They know on daily basis what Actual selling prices are versus published prices.

Does the Canary in the coal mine wear a Sub Date?
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Old 28 October 2021, 03:09 AM   #128
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Unpredictable. We have not seen the full effect of all the massive money printing and what this will do to inflation. Rolex is an appreciating liquid asset.
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Old 28 October 2021, 05:56 AM   #129
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For the "Rolex bubble" to burst, you would need to convince Rolex to do two things: 1) raise the MSRP to match the grey going prices and 2) increase production to the point the market is flooded with watches.

Until they start down that path, which I doubt they would ever be foolish enough to, you are SOL in hoping for any bubble.
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Old 28 October 2021, 07:58 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Cesarmsi View Post
The world wide population is around 7.9 billion people. 1.27% of the population have an interest of purchasing a Rolex watch, thats 100 million people. It is understood that Rolex can only produce a little over a million watches a year. So….. no, I dont think the bubble will burst any time soon.
I think 1.27% is high for interest in a Rolex among the WW population.

Even if there really are 100 million Rolex admirers, what is the "conversion" rate. 1% would be highly optimistic.

1 % would be one year of Rolex production but Rolexs are not consumed but accumulate- their are many millions out there.

The market we all obsess about could go either way IMHO
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Old 28 October 2021, 07:23 PM   #131
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Hi folks,
This is my first message here, sorry for my english, itsn't my mother language.
Everyday i read here something very interesting.
I will tell you what I know for sure it's happening in AD around Europe at least.
Rolex has reduced to every shop the number of watch for the year about 50% comparing budget 2019.
So Example if one shop in London had 2000 watchs budget in 2019 now they have 1000 for all 2021, the others 1000 are going to Asian market.
This is what top sales manager says to AD.
This is the real problem.
My 2 cents.
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Old 28 October 2021, 10:03 PM   #132
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Unpredictable. We have not seen the full effect of all the massive money printing and what this will do to inflation. Rolex is an appreciating liquid asset.
Not sure about that. Here in the UK we have some of the highest secondary market prices for watches and we didn't have stimulus cheques and there isn't massive money printing here (or for a significant part of the world for that matter).

IMO it's increased demand in the west, combined with a growing market in the east. Rolex don't know if the market will perpetuate at this level so they aren't upscaling and increasing production so the demand continues to outstrip supply.
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Old 5 January 2022, 06:37 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by Aventura View Post
I have no doubt that it will explode at any moment. The same supply of thousands and thousands of watches now in the possession of gray dealers makes me think that. I would particularly like to buy a Rolex but I would not pay a penny more than the list price. If I pay a premium I think I would not be calm at all. IMUO.
Agreed, I check many watch websites daily and i see many of the same watches still for sale. These grey market dealers cannot sit on merchandise forever, sooner or later they will have to let it go.
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Old 5 January 2022, 06:41 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by smartitalian View Post
Hi folks,
This is my first message here, sorry for my english, itsn't my mother language.
Everyday i read here something very interesting.
I will tell you what I know for sure it's happening in AD around Europe at least.
Rolex has reduced to every shop the number of watch for the year about 50% comparing budget 2019.
So Example if one shop in London had 2000 watchs budget in 2019 now they have 1000 for all 2021, the others 1000 are going to Asian market.
This is what top sales manager says to AD.
This is the real problem.
My 2 cents.
Nonsense.
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Old 5 January 2022, 06:41 AM   #135
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I have had a interest in watches for over 30years and the last 2/3 years fuelled by instgram etc I Can't see it slowing any time soon !!!
Spoke with a watch trader today they said there have there best Christmas since 1981
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Old 5 January 2022, 08:00 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by smartitalian View Post
Hi folks,
This is my first message here, sorry for my english, itsn't my mother language.
Everyday i read here something very interesting.
I will tell you what I know for sure it's happening in AD around Europe at least.
Rolex has reduced to every shop the number of watch for the year about 50% comparing budget 2019.
So Example if one shop in London had 2000 watchs budget in 2019 now they have 1000 for all 2021, the others 1000 are going to Asian market.
This is what top sales manager says to AD.
This is the real problem.
My 2 cents.

That's more than 2 cents-priceless.
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Old 5 January 2022, 08:08 AM   #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smartitalian View Post
Hi folks,
This is my first message here, sorry for my english, itsn't my mother language.
Everyday i read here something very interesting.
I will tell you what I know for sure it's happening in AD around Europe at least.
Rolex has reduced to every shop the number of watch for the year about 50% comparing budget 2019.
So Example if one shop in London had 2000 watchs budget in 2019 now they have 1000 for all 2021, the others 1000 are going to Asian market.
This is what top sales manager says to AD.
This is the real problem.
My 2 cents.
There has been some redistribution to asia but not 50% by any stretch of the imagination.
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Old 5 January 2022, 08:09 AM   #138
malba2366
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Originally Posted by smartitalian View Post
Hi folks,
This is my first message here, sorry for my english, itsn't my mother language.
Everyday i read here something very interesting.
I will tell you what I know for sure it's happening in AD around Europe at least.
Rolex has reduced to every shop the number of watch for the year about 50% comparing budget 2019.
So Example if one shop in London had 2000 watchs budget in 2019 now they have 1000 for all 2021, the others 1000 are going to Asian market.
This is what top sales manager says to AD.
This is the real problem.
My 2 cents.
Very doubtful that they would remove half the watches from one market and divert it to another market. Also, the sales manager at a random AD would certainly not be provided with the information that these additional units were transferred to the Asian markets.
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Old 5 January 2022, 08:09 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by jaychief View Post
I have had a interest in watches for over 30years and the last 2/3 years fuelled by instgram etc I Can't see it slowing any time soon !!!
Spoke with a watch trader today they said there have there best Christmas since 1981
Yup, I got the same feedback by a few just casually talking. They also see next year being even better.
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Old 5 January 2022, 08:12 AM   #140
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When people run out of money and assets or when people lose interest again. Impossible to predict. Watches are hot right now with some of the younger crowd, celebrity culture, and the former Third World is catching up. So it could be a while.
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Old 5 January 2022, 08:20 AM   #141
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There has been some redistribution to asia but not 50% by any stretch of the imagination.
It’s hard to gauge that. It seems that some brands are not interacted any longer to sell in major and minor Western markets. Just count the designated flagship stores in major areas. I just bought another Omega and at the same time had some issues with my wife’s Constellation. I live near Boston, MA. There is not one single Omega Boutique in all of New England. Densely populated area, lots and lots of money and people who wear all sorts of top shelf watches. Yet no place to go to other than designated mom and pop stores and sucky local chain store jewelers. Hongkong has, what, 6 or so OBs? Situation with designated Rolex dealers isn’t much different (only they have no inventory, Omega at least sells you a watch around here). I think I counted at some point and found that flagship stores of major brands within Hongkong or Singapore outnumber those in all of Westen Europe (or close to it). It tells a story.
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Old 5 January 2022, 08:41 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by dtwer View Post
For the "Rolex bubble" to burst, you would need to convince Rolex to do two things: 1) raise the MSRP to match the grey going prices and 2) increase production to the point the market is flooded with watches.

Until they start down that path, which I doubt they would ever be foolish enough to, you are SOL in hoping for any bubble.
Recession - end of cheap money - less demand, offloading by Greys. That is what would need to happen.
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Old 5 January 2022, 10:01 AM   #143
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This is how I see it. I've got my 2 forever watches so I don't really care if they go up or down because I'm not selling.

I compare this to my house that I purchased for 900k. Many were going crazy when the housing market dipped and the housing prices crashed. My placed dropped to 680k value at the time. Same thing. Wasn't selling or buying so it didn't matter.

Now back up to 2.3 mill but still doesn't matter since I'm not selling. Just my .02
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Old 5 January 2022, 11:56 AM   #144
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As has been said there are huge stocks at greys and rolexes in the general market, soon as the hype goes which it feels like it is on social media eg hardly see celebs wearing rolex on insta now, grey prices will crash amd we have more availability at ad’s
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Old 6 January 2022, 02:17 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by smartitalian View Post
Hi folks,
This is my first message here, sorry for my english, itsn't my mother language.
Everyday i read here something very interesting.
I will tell you what I know for sure it's happening in AD around Europe at least.
Rolex has reduced to every shop the number of watch for the year about 50% comparing budget 2019.
So Example if one shop in London had 2000 watchs budget in 2019 now they have 1000 for all 2021, the others 1000 are going to Asian market.
This is what top sales manager says to AD.
This is the real problem.
My 2 cents.
Welcome to TRF, and thank you for your input
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Old 6 January 2022, 03:39 AM   #146
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While I agree with the influence of social media, bitcoin, and wealth effects from housing appreciation, the length of this economic expansion has been fueled the last two years by the Federal Reserve printing money, buying mortgages and bonds (these last two are extremely rare events), forcing people out of cash into other asset classes as inflation exceeds risk free rates significantly. As the Fed moderates their mortgage and bond purchases, as announced, the economy has to slow. How much, who knows? In the WSJ this morning, the spending bill pending late last year has been shelved as the amount of deficit spending is becoming more of an issue.
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Old 6 January 2022, 03:43 AM   #147
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This helps explain..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLB27j4vZnU
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Old 6 January 2022, 03:48 AM   #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teck21 View Post
Everyone’s an expert, so let’s see who the true experts are!

See if this thread will age as badly as the ones from 2019 so confidently predicting the end was nigh for crazy Rolex prices.

For the purpose of simplicity and clarity, a bursting of the so-called Rolex bubble would refer to a sudden and sharp drop in the resale price for a BNIB Rolex panda Daytona ref 116500LN.

This model has been selected as being the most representative proxy for overall Rolex pricing.

The assumption is that the price now is US$31,000 for BNIB and a bursting of the bubble will lead to a fall in its price by 30% or more when the bubble does burst.

Your reasons for a collapse (or a non collapse) are irrelevant, simply whether you call a bubble and when you expect it to burst using the above point of reference.

1) 2021-2022
2) 2023-2024
3) beyond that, or never. What bubble?
4) too stupid to make a call

Yes, beyond 3 years was put together with never because calling a bubble 3 years early is actually no sign of astuteness or accurate predicting at all. It’s no better than saying it must burst at some point.

Experts abound here.


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You forgot the 'Don't hold your breath' option.
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Old 6 January 2022, 03:52 AM   #149
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Recession - end of cheap money - less demand, offloading by Greys. That is what would need to happen.
Never going to happen. They've figured out a way to ward off recession by printing unlimited money.

Hence kicking the can down the road at infinitum.
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Old 6 January 2022, 04:04 AM   #150
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Sometime around January 1st 3032!
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