Royal Oak VS Nautilus

[ericmeds]

Royal Oak 15500 MSRP 19.2 - trades for 24.8k
Nautilus 5711 MSRP 30.6 - trades for 68k

Seems like Royal Oaks is massively undervalued - What do you guys think?

For starters the RO clasp is far better than 5711 although the 5740 has a much improved one so that may be next. Overall seems like RO is more or less on par with a Nautilus besides that hairspring (and maybe some finishing details?). I suppose Patek does a better job at restricting supply, but less familiar with the other nuances in the current market.

Are APs next?

[pyceasyas123]

I’d sooner compare the 15202 vs 5711 pricing instead of the 15500 pricing. A 15202 is going for ~40k now, I believe retail is around 24k? This is already quite a bit over retail.

The 5711 pricing is just crazy right now. Not sure if this is going to sustain itself. You could find pateks sitting in showcases 5 years ago. There’s a lot of hype in the watch market right now across Rolex, AP and Patek.


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[AK797]

If you truly like the 500 then now is the time to buy, wait times at ADs are still in the months and so are reasonable, grey prices too. Don't buy for any other reason, trying to make money now is very risky.

[Token74]

I prefer the RO to the AP. Buy AP now!


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[Peterandwatches]

It all depends when you get in. Wasn't the 15400 trading at 12K a few years ago?

[singe89]

Originally Posted by Peterandwatches

It all depends when you get in. Wasn't the 15400 trading at 12K a few years ago?

New around $10k 6 years ago

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by Peterandwatches

It all depends when you get in. Wasn't the 15400 trading at 12K a few years ago?

Yep. I got mine for just over $13k about 3 years ago. I also remember going to the AP boutique in NYC a month after getting my RO and seeing a blue 15400, 15203 open work in RG, and a blue dial RO chrono all for sale.

[bayerische]

I wouldn't say AP is undervalued, I'd say Patek is extremely overvalued.

The 5711 Nautilus is no-where near a 60K watch.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by bayerische

I wouldn't say AP is undervalued, I'd say Patek is extremely overvalued.

The 5711 Nautilus is no-where near a 60K watch.

Yup in the UK its more like $80K.

[KennyS]

The 5711 Nautilus is no-where near a 60K watch -
I won't pay 5711 for even $35,000
Prefer Rolex Daytona / GMT

[PPFANBOY]

Nautilus is the hype watch of the day and even that has taken a beating in value. Lot of people having a hilarious cry about it. It's a classic therefore worthy in any collection and a nice watch for what is, a basic steel watch that literally ripped off the RO... And compare any Nautilus with the latest ROs. No comparison. The AP RO PC Ceramic openwork puts every single Nautilus in its pocket for example.

This is coming for someone who is actually a Nautilus fan, but facts are facts too.

[0315]

The only allowable counterpart to 5711 is 15202.
I don't see a 15500 close to that.
If you had the chance to wear a 15202 you would most likely agree.
IMHO, the proportions of 15500 are off. I had watches even up to panerai and big pilot. Huge watches. But they made sense.
At the moment I see a trend going back to smaller sizes. At least on myself. APs 41mm are simply to big.
I would even consider a 38mm AP right now, which still feels same size as for instance Skydweller.
Given the thinner housing, I see the 15202 as the most perfect balanced watch at AP today.
In terms of comfort,FAR BETTER than the other models.
But as usual, everyone has his own cup of tea

Cheers

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by 0315

The only allowable counterpart to 5711 is 15202.
I don't see a 15500 close to that.
If you had the chance to wear a 15202 you would most likely agree.
IMHO, the proportions of 15500 are off. I had watches even up to panerai and big pilot. Huge watches. But they made sense.
At the moment I see a trend going back to smaller sizes. At least on myself. APs 41mm are simply to big.
I would even consider a 38mm AP right now, which still feels same size as for instance Skydweller.
Given the thinner housing, I see the 15202 as the most perfect balanced watch at AP today.
In terms of comfort,FAR BETTER than the other models.
But as usual, everyone has his own cup of tea

Cheers

Well stated. 15300, 15400, and 15500 are all really nice APs. The 15202 is truly the iconic AP.

[pyceasyas123]

Originally Posted by bayerische

I wouldn't say AP is undervalued, I'd say Patek is extremely overvalued.

The 5711 Nautilus is no-where near a 60K watch.

Agree with this big time. It’s a nice watch but nowhere near 60k. Plenty of other options available at that price point.


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[locutus49]

I had a new RO 39mm for about a week and did not bond with it. And when I was going to buy a 5711 5 or so years ago, which was in the counter, the wife said it looked like a TV screen and persuaded me not to buy. I bought a Platinum Daytona instead, which she loved.

[ericmeds]

Originally Posted by 0315

The only allowable counterpart to 5711 is 15202.
I don't see a 15500 close to that.
If you had the chance to wear a 15202 you would most likely agree.
IMHO, the proportions of 15500 are off. I had watches even up to panerai and big pilot. Huge watches. But they made sense.
At the moment I see a trend going back to smaller sizes. At least on myself. APs 41mm are simply to big.
I would even consider a 38mm AP right now, which still feels same size as for instance Skydweller.
Given the thinner housing, I see the 15202 as the most perfect balanced watch at AP today.
In terms of comfort,FAR BETTER than the other models.
But as usual, everyone has his own cup of tea

Cheers

What size wrist? My 15500 looks great on 7" wrist but I do agree the trend might be going down in size.

[SMD]

The answer is obviously both.

[lukey77]

Originally Posted by 0315

The only allowable counterpart to 5711 is 15202.
I don't see a 15500 close to that.
If you had the chance to wear a 15202 you would most likely agree.
IMHO, the proportions of 15500 are off. I had watches even up to panerai and big pilot. Huge watches. But they made sense.
At the moment I see a trend going back to smaller sizes. At least on myself. APs 41mm are simply to big.
I would even consider a 38mm AP right now, which still feels same size as for instance Skydweller.
Given the thinner housing, I see the 15202 as the most perfect balanced watch at AP today.
In terms of comfort,FAR BETTER than the other models.
But as usual, everyone has his own cup of tea

Cheers

The 15202 is strange. I completely agree- until you’ve worn it I don’t think you can really appreciate it. I have a 5712 , Rolexes , a Royal Oak offshore etc.
My wife hates my watch addiction. But the one watch she will not let me sell , the one watch that she absolutely loves, is the 15202. It doesn’t have a seconds hand, it’s not fancy - but it’s just unbelievably well proportioned, the bracelet is unbelievably well made , and that blue!

It’s a strange one- but I genuinely think the 15202 is perfection.


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[Frits1980]

Anyone with an average wrist can wear the Nautilus. The 15400/15500 is just to big for most. I have the 15400 and 7+ wrists, i love it but i only wear it with t-shirts to balance the size as it looks even bigger with sleeves. I will flip mine for a 15202 someday. Wish they made 15500 a 40mm.

[karasus]

Originally Posted by Frits1980

Anyone with an average wrist can wear the Nautilus. The 15400/15500 is just to big for most. I have the 15400 and 7+ wrists, i love it but i only wear it with t-shirts to balance the size as it looks even bigger with sleeves. I will flip mine for a 15202 someday. Wish they made 15500 a 40mm.

There was an interesting article a while back about wrist sizes. The average, more exactly median, wrist size is 7.25inches / 18.42cm. https://theslenderwrist.com/average-...ize-for-a-man/

From the article, you can see that 60% of men have a wrist size between 6.75 in/17.5cm and 7.75 in / 19.67cm. At that size anything from 39mm-42mm should be wearable without overhang. So any 15202,15300,15400,15500, 5711, and even a 42mm ROO should fit 60% of male wrists. Of course a 7.75 would wear a 42mm watch slightly better but a 41mm watch is still wearable without overhang on a 6.75mm wrist. There is also some preference in play for watch to wrist size but in terms of fit 39mm-42mm is the sweet spot.

That said, the bell curve in the study is a bit more bottom heavy rather than top heavy, meaning that it is more common to have a smaller wrist than Arnold level wrists, which represent more of the extremes.

If we consider watches that are on the lower end of 39mm-42mm spectrum (39mm-40mm) have the benefit of fitting both people in the "normal" range and also a larger proportion of the "below normal" wrist sizes. Then 39mm-40mm 15202/15300/5711 can fit wrists from from 6 inches to 7.75 then 80% of male wrists can wear it, based on the sample taken from the survey.

Of course things like wrist shape (flat vs round) and preference/trends also play a role in what you might want to wear, so don't take these things as a hard rule.

Also, it should be taken into consideration that today the median age of watch buyer of AP and Pateks is around 40-44. Younger generations that are future buyers are bigger and taller, which result in bigger wrists, so most likely in 15 years a 41mm 15400/15500 will be conservative in size.

[dcash0615]

Originally Posted by ericmeds

Royal Oak 15500 MSRP 19.2 - trades for 24.8k
Nautilus 5711 MSRP 30.6 - trades for 68k

Seems like Royal Oaks is massively undervalued - What do you guys think?

For starters the RO clasp is far better than 5711 although the 5740 has a much improved one so that may be next. Overall seems like RO is more or less on par with a Nautilus besides that hairspring (and maybe some finishing details?). I suppose Patek does a better job at restricting supply, but less familiar with the other nuances in the current market.

Are APs next?

Not knocking Patek, but you may have it backwards. Seems like the Nautilus 5711 is massively overvalued. I expect prices on these to soften further. Just my opinion.