Dow back under 10k.

[mustangbrad]

Anyone think we finish off 09 with the dow above 10k? I was a little surprised we broke through recently. I guess the low expectations for earnings and the free printed money for banks and bailouts everywhere temporarily was used as a bandaid.
Anyone think we see 9500 or 10500 first on the dow?
I'm thinking we may drift down to the 97's this next week. I need to re-examine a few new picks and see what a good price to go long will be and where to average down.
Hedge's are still ruling this market. What initially looked like a lazy up day with home data this morning, ending up working it's way to a meltdown for a day.

[mikefrmnj]

Originally Posted by mustangbrad

Anyone think we finish off 09 with the dow above 10k? I was a little surprised we broke through recently. I guess the low expectations for earnings and the free printed money for banks and bailouts everywhere temporarily was used as a bandaid.
Anyone think we see 9500 or 10500 first on the dow?
I'm thinking we may drift down to the 97's this next week. I need to re-examine a few new picks and see what a good price to go long will be and where to average down.
Hedge's are still ruling this market. What initially looked like a lazy up day with home data this morning, ending up working it's way to a meltdown for a day.

I'm feeling a bunch of profit taking on the way. I dumped my VLY for 14% profit over a couple months so I am liquid to dive back in when the pullback comes. EWBC if it gets to low 8's

[Toxicant]

I think we'll test the lows of 7500 before we see a march to 12000 plus. There is no reason for the dow being where it is today. The next horror is commercial real-estate.

[Ed Rooney]

I'll take the over.

We'll see a steady rise as retailers report a solid holiday season and everyone anticipated good earnings in January.

I'm shocked at how some want the recovery to fail.

[Brushpup]

I guess this means no rides on Bruno's big boat........dangitt

[moby33]

Originally Posted by Ed Rooney

I'll take the over.

We'll see a steady rise as retailers report a solid holiday season and everyone anticipated good earnings in January.

I'm shocked at how some want the recovery to fail.

I don't want a recovery to fail, but I doubt retail is going to report a solid holiday season. Too many people out of jobs w/ still long-term unemployment indicators to suggest people are going to be opening their wallets big time this upcoming holiday season. I agree there will be some improved numbers...but far from "solid" or "good" IMO. When you have a year as bad as the last it's hard to continue w/ those numbers, so obviously things will be up...but it's still not going to be pretty. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am. Unemployment figures rule the day!

[mustangbrad]

Yea, unemployment over 10% here in illinois. And that's just the ones who report it, many don't file or are unaware of what conditions they can receive unemployment. I'm underemployed for sure. I think the dow will nest around 9400 at the end of the year.

[moby33]

Originally Posted by mustangbrad

Yea, unemployment over 10% here in illinois.

10%...what glory days. All us CA residents w/ our bankrupt state and unemployment over 12% dream of when we were 'only' at 10%. Now isn't that a scary statement?!?! Then again, I guess all those Michigan residents could pipe up and talk about their 15%. Yikes...I've got to stop talking about this...just makes me sad.

[BarkMaster]

I think holiday sales will be more of an impact in Q1 2010.

I think we will see some strong retail in tech; especially around smartphones and computers:

• New offerings for the Mac faithful
• Windows 7
• Netbooks

Now that Microsoft has a decent migration product, I think we'll see some astounding Windows 7 numbers from the corporate sector as companies move from WinXP directly to Win7 (and Vista -> Win7 to a lesser degree), but that won't happen before the end of the calendar year...

[deserted]

Cheer up guys, this downturn is almost over to say the least.......Let's hope

[moby33]

Originally Posted by deserted

Cheer up guys, this downturn is almost over to say the least.......Let's hope

I agree from a numbers standpoint...but not unemployment. Latest figures show we won't get back to the job #'s we had in '07 until well into '12 (a year ago they forecasted those job would return by '11). As with all long-term recessions (aka depressions...but nobody wants to use the 'D' word) unemployment improvement lags a long time behind improved numbers...this one's no different and going to lag big time due to how hard we were cut. Painful, but true.

[deserted]

Originally Posted by moby33

I agree from a numbers standpoint...but not unemployment. Latest figures show we won't get back to the job #'s we had in '07 until well into '12 (a year ago they forecasted those job would return by '11). As with all long-term recessions (aka depressions...but nobody wants to use the 'D' word) unemployment improvement lags a long time behind improved numbers...this one's no different and going to lag big time due to how hard we were cut. Painful, but true.

Your right , i'm a bankruptcy attorney and i have seen a jump all year long as far as filings, we have on our docket alone over 4000 being heard in court alone not including the new filings within the last month we have processed..

The numbers are astronomical and some pepole just cannot afford to even file a BK , but we did reduce our cost by half and we have seen such a big jump i had to hire extra help just this week to keep up with the pace of the BK's going to court........


The pepole who do have jobs are so stressed that they can't sleep at night or get a good night's sleep, just because i have a firm dosen't mean i'm not immune to what's going on currently in this economic turndown , hell i have nosebleeds because my docket is that OVERLOADED......

My point is if you are unempolyed take this time for rest and reflection and redirect some career objectives and stay focused , i have a trade outside of even being a lawyer so i can always have something to fall back on.....

[mikefrmnj]

Originally Posted by Ed Rooney

I'll take the over.

We'll see a steady rise as retailers report a solid holiday season and everyone anticipated good earnings in January.

I'm shocked at how some want the recovery to fail.

I don't think anyone wants the recovery to fail. I just think we are waiting for it to start as we watch unemployment rise and rise and rise. 12% by summer for sure, not counting the people who aren't even looking anymore.