Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Warrants now up over 40% to $2.00 since posting, though share price hasn’t budged. I believe the exercise price for warrants is $11.50, so there’s now a 35% discrepancy between shares and warrants ($10 vs 13.50). Merger meeting vote announced for July 12, where the ticker will change to “UP.” Only 100-200k volume per day on average right now for shares with daily changes of $0.01 so it’s likely just algorithms, but I do think this will catch a bid at some point soon. At minimum, with a ticker like “UP” I imagine wsb will run it “up” at some point lol. Wheels up also just announced a partnership with American Express as part of perks added with certain Amex cards.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggol...e-jet-partner/

ASPL ceo is also Ravi Thakran, who was the chairman of LVMH Asia, and has nice history of investment in luxury-oriented lifestyle, health and beauty companies.

In any case, just another thought to consider.

Don't forget their partnership with Delta, I went through the deck you posted a few weeks ago and couldn't make a decision. What are your thoughts on competitors, seems like an overcrowded space? Private travel is at record highs, can't imagine that slows down as travel resumes combined with the significant uptick in wealth across the top 1%. There was a great article in Barron's over the weekend worth reading on private jet travel. https://www.barrons.com/articles/pri...en-01625176816

I will say, I have been watching those HZAC warrants (vivid seats) like a hawk every day. Waiting for an opportunity, volume is very low so if we can string together a week or two of broad market underperformance and it pulls back sub 1.50, I am going all in. Hoping I don't miss the train here.

Originally Posted by logo

Was actually just thinking about this again the other day. Looks like IV is relatively low for the June 2022 calls, but open interest is low apart from the $22 strikes. The Jan 2023 seem to be 50% more expensive for an extra 6 months. Guess I’ll need to start thinking about what to do with some of my growth names - they did not like the yield increase in March AT ALL lol.

I looked at the 22 and 23 chain, OI seems very high across most strikes, all over 2,000. Really any OI above 500 is more than enough to create liquidity, ultimately lower bid/ask spreads, for when you liquidate. I'm a little weary of timing it by year end because who knows what happens in the next 6 months. With tapering this year and FED raising rates next year, I think 2023 is a safe play. I've been looking at jan 2023 $20C, priced at 3.20, when the 10yr hit 1.75 earlier this year it priced near 5.70. Would need to back out a bit of theta decay though and also don't forget it is a 2x levered ETF with a high 1% fee. Other option is to just buy the ETF at $18.50, the $23 call is paying about 2.50, that lowers your cost to $16 on a covered call. Should/when rates start to move you will be back in the 20s, which would be a nice 40-50% gain without too much hassle. Risk being if rates move sideways the etf will still trend downwards. We hit roughly 2% on the 10yr right prior to COVID, so I would consider that a baseline and 5yr high is near 3%. Hard to fathom we move much higher than that given we can't really afford debt servicing as it is with $30T of debt.

Remember the days when people were excited about 10% annual returns?

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Don't forget their partnership with Delta, I went through the deck you posted a few weeks ago and couldn't make a decision. What are your thoughts on competitors, seems like an overcrowded space? Private travel is at record highs, can't imagine that slows down as travel resumes combined with the significant uptick in wealth across the top 1%. There was a great article in Barron's over the weekend worth reading on private jet travel. https://www.barrons.com/articles/pri...en-01625176816

I will say, I have been watching those HZAC warrants (vivid seats) like a hawk every day. Waiting for an opportunity, volume is very low so if we can string together a week or two of broad market underperformance and it pulls back sub 1.50, I am going all in. Hoping I don't miss the train here.

I looked at the 22 and 23 chain, OI seems very high across most strikes, all over 2,000. Really any OI above 500 is more than enough to create liquidity, ultimately lower bid/ask spreads, for when you liquidate. I'm a little weary of timing it by year end because who knows what happens in the next 6 months. With tapering this year and FED raising rates next year, I think 2023 is a safe play. I've been looking at jan 2023 $20C, priced at 3.20, when the 10yr hit 1.75 earlier this year it priced near 5.70. Would need to back out a bit of theta decay though and also don't forget it is a 2x levered ETF with a high 1% fee. Other option is to just buy the ETF at $18.50, the $23 call is paying about 2.50, that lowers your cost to $16 on a covered call. Should/when rates start to move you will be back in the 20s, which would be a nice 40-50% gain without too much hassle. Risk being if rates move sideways the etf will still trend downwards. We hit roughly 2% on the 10yr right prior to COVID, so I would consider that a baseline and 5yr high is near 3%. Hard to fathom we move much higher than that given we can't really afford debt servicing as it is with $30T of debt.

Remember the days when people were excited about 10% annual returns?

It is indeed a bit of a crowded space, but there are a few things that I really like about Wheels Up. Here is a really fantastic write up about the whole industry and a bit of a focus on Wheels Up as well:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggol...h=abfaf34520f5

In particular, I believe the digitization aspect for wheels up is second to none, and as a consequence it improves the business flow internally but also makes things easy for the consumer. Their partnership with DAL enhances this, as conceivably customers will be able to book privately through Delta - “here’s the business class seat, and here’s the private plane.” Basically showing the option to those who hadn’t considered it before and are just looking at tickets as they normally do.

The membership component I think is also great (and a great add from the Amex side), where it helps to ensure flight availability and steady revenue.

Most important though, Wheels Up is currently the second largest private aviation company behind NetJets, but their target consumer is very different and could potentially position them to capitalize on major growth. While NetJets is more focused on business travel and the ultra wealthy, Wheels Up is really targeting the entry-level consumer to private aviation - the single digit millionaire type who is maybe looking for a private short haul US flight to the SuperBowl or Daytona 500 with the boys, a weekend in Vegas, or a wedding anniversary getaway. They are pumping out a bigger social media presence and I can see it as an “instagramable” thing. I think their marketing will take them far. People show their watches, cars, rare bourbons, houses etc on Instagram, and the private jet getaway I think is easily incorporated into that, which Wheels Up has a strong handle on with their celebrity involvement.

So between their technology, link with DAL, target market and aggressive marketing, I do think they have a nice moat forming that can position them nicely in the coming years.

[hkuo]

Any insight as to why APPS dropped so much out of the blue?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

It is indeed a bit of a crowded space, but there are a few things that I really like about Wheels Up. Here is a really fantastic write up about the whole industry and a bit of a focus on Wheels Up as well:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggol...h=abfaf34520f5

In particular, I believe the digitization aspect for wheels up is second to none, and as a consequence it improves the business flow internally but also makes things easy for the consumer. Their partnership with DAL enhances this, as conceivably customers will be able to book privately through Delta - “here’s the business class seat, and here’s the private plane.” Basically showing the option to those who hadn’t considered it before and are just looking at tickets as they normally do.

The membership component I think is also great (and a great add from the Amex side), where it helps to ensure flight availability and steady revenue.

Most important though, Wheels Up is currently the second largest private aviation company behind NetJets, but their target consumer is very different and could potentially position them to capitalize on major growth. While NetJets is more focused on business travel and the ultra wealthy, Wheels Up is really targeting the entry-level consumer to private aviation - the single digit millionaire type who is maybe looking for a private short haul US flight to the SuperBowl or Daytona 500 with the boys, a weekend in Vegas, or a wedding anniversary getaway. They are pumping out a bigger social media presence and I can see it as an “instagramable” thing. I think their marketing will take them far. People show their watches, cars, rare bourbons, houses etc on Instagram, and the private jet getaway I think is easily incorporated into that, which Wheels Up has a strong handle on with their celebrity involvement.

So between their technology, link with DAL, target market and aggressive marketing, I do think they have a nice moat forming that can position them nicely in the coming years.

All good points, thank you for sharing as always. Do you know when the warrants become redeemable? Would be curious given their 30% premium to the underlying stock, as they are exercisable at $11.50. Might ride this train with you, I think you make some great compelling points.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

All good points, thank you for sharing as always. Do you know when the warrants become redeemable? Would be curious given their 30% premium to the underlying stock, as they are exercisable at $11.50. Might ride this train with you, I think you make some great compelling points.

From the 8-K:

The Public Warrants will become exercisable on the later of (a) 30 days after the completion of a Business Combination and (b) 12 months from the closing of the Initial Public Offering. The Public Warrants will expire five years from the completion of a Business Combination or earlier upon redemption or liquidation.

Redemption of outstanding warrants is dependent on the underlying share price (as either >$18/share or >$10/share), but within 30 days of warrants being exercisable.

I believe the initial IPO for the units was September 23, 2020. Given the premium on the warrants for a total cost of $13.50, was thinking about picking up shares here for $10.

[GeorgeJHugo]

Stunning how so much of this information and advice here is plain wrong.

[Zack21]

Originally Posted by GeorgeJHugo

Stunning how so much of this information and advice here is plain wrong.

Such as?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by GeorgeJHugo

Stunning how so much of this information and advice here is plain wrong.

You are free to correct whomever you like. Doubtful you will

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by GeorgeJHugo

Stunning how so much of this information and advice here is plain wrong.

Doubt anybody has ever claimed what they were saying was guaranteed. And even so, some of the better known investors like Stan Druck gets it wrong sometimes(altho he’s never had a losing calendar year)
Everybody is expected to do their own DD, nobody is giving financial advice here

Originally Posted by beshannon

You are free to correct whomever you like. Doubtful you will

[FLGatorM5]

Originally Posted by GeorgeJHugo

Stunning how so much of this information and advice here is plain wrong.

If you thought this was anything close to “advice” then you should probably leave and hire a financial advisor.

I personally appreciate those of differing backgrounds and expertise present their ideas.

Please don’t be a troll…Or a dick.

[7sins]

Going to be an interesting week for oil after OPEC+ today announced NO deal putting pressure on oil supply. We are already paying over $5/gal here in Los Angeles, maybe Goldman's $100 oil forecast a few weeks back will become a reality.

(Bloomberg) -- Brent oil prices rose above $77 a barrel for the first time since 2018 after OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on bringing back curtailed output, leaving the market with tighter supplies than expected. Futures rose as much as 1.2% in London. The group’s oil ministers were unable to reach a compromise, keeping current production limits in place for August and depriving the market from the extra barrels it needs as demand recovers from the pandemic. “As things stand now, this is quite a bullish scenario for oil prices,” TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali said by phone. “We should see the energy market tighten up at a faster pace than we anticipated in recent months.”

Talks on Monday followed a delay from last week as the Saudis stood firm about raising output starting in August and extending the OPEC+ agreement to the end of 2022, while the United Arab Emirates sought better terms for itself. The failure by the group to increase supply will further squeeze an already tight market, raising concerns over inflation.

Most OPEC+ members backed a proposal to increase output by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August, and push back the expiry of the broader supply deal into the end of next year. To agree to an extension, the UAE sought to change the baseline that’s used to calculate its quota, a move that could allow it to boost daily production by an extra 700,000 barrels. Crude rose for a third month in June as widespread Covid-19 vaccinations have helped revive demand while OPEC+ has curbed supply. But prices at the highest in more than two years have raised worries over its impact on the global economy, and the White House is already voicing concern about rising gasoline prices. While demand signals are strong in Europe and the U.S., the virus is spreading again in parts of Asia, resulting in increased restrictions on movement.

Morgan Stanley estimates global daily oil demand is set to increase by 3 million barrels from the May-June period to December. With little supply growth elsewhere, even the proposed increase from OPEC+ will likely keep the market in deficit. That will support Brent prices within the bank’s forecast range of $75 to $80 a barrel in the second half of this year.

[huncho]

i'm surprised that the news from opec didn't have any positive effect on oil stocks but i feel like this sector is a minefield. i think i'll try to get in to some positions here this week but have very limited knowledge on it

and of course just when things were looking good with baba again, china tanks didi stock and brings it along lol, this was expected though and knew it was a gamble, still holding though. anyone here in any semiconductors? i spent the last few weeks averaging into a few

[Romeojk]

I’m looking for more help with setting up stop losses. The ones I set up earlier all expired. I have read around a little bit, very little, and get that I need to do my homework on what to set them at. I am wondering if people here have any sort of general rule of thumb?

I was thinking of setting it at 10% lower than the lowest price in the past month or so.

With this strategy here is my worry. If the market goes down +10% and now I am liquid. I really won’t know what to do at this point.

What if things start going back up do I just jump back in at let’s say a 5% real loss and let things go as they go?

What if things continue to go down let’s say 20%, do I say, okay my friend you’ve just saved yourself from a 10% additional loss, it’s time to jump back in?

Or is there perhaps a better percentage to us like 15%, although that seems like a pretty big loss.

What do you guys do?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

i'm surprised that the news from opec didn't have any positive effect on oil stocks but i feel like this sector is a minefield. i think i'll try to get in to some positions here this week but have very limited knowledge on it

and of course just when things were looking good with baba again, china tanks didi stock and brings it along lol, this was expected though and knew it was a gamble, still holding though. anyone here in any semiconductors? i spent the last few weeks averaging into a few

Just my .02, I have been trimming a bit of my exposure here as rates have come down and semis have bounced back quickly. I am still long, ASML (they make the machines that manufacture chips, AMAT (provide equipment/resources/software to chip makers), NVDA, AMD, TSM and MRVL but not adding currently. I spoke a few weeks ago on here about using SOXL, 3x leverage chip manufacturer when it was below $30 to use as a short term play when chips sell off but I have exited that position. I've been researching TER, no position here but interesting company that sells and supports testing equipment for chips, the more we use chips in society the more we will need testing equipment from them to ensure quality control - IMO little pricey today.

What are you buying? Anyone brave enough to buy into INTC at these levels?

Originally Posted by Romeojk

I’m looking for more help with setting up stop losses. The ones I set up earlier all expired. I have read around a little bit, very little, and get that I need to do my homework on what to set them at. I am wondering if people here have any sort of general rule of thumb?

I was thinking of setting it at 10% lower than the lowest price in the past month or so.

With this strategy here is my worry. If the market goes down +10% and now I am liquid. I really won’t know what to do at this point.

What if things start going back up do I just jump back in at let’s say a 5% real loss and let things go as they go?

What if things continue to go down let’s say 20%, do I say, okay my friend you’ve just saved yourself from a 10% additional loss, it’s time to jump back in?

Or is there perhaps a better percentage to us like 15%, although that seems like a pretty big loss.

What do you guys do?

Few ideas for you but ultimately depends on your conviction and investment style. Most important is to remember sequence of returns, if you are down 50% you need to be up 100% to breakeven.

1. You can use a multi-leg stop loss, when you are down 10% sell xyz% of position, down 20% sell xyz% of position. I can't tell you what xyz is as that is dependent on each position and your conviction within it. Personally exiting 100% of a position on first leg down means you usually miss the bounce back, hence why to have a multi-leg. Again is case by case, if there is consequential news you believe the stock can not recover from, then you need to re-adjust.
2. You can combine a stop loss with a stop buy. IE you can sell a certain amount of your position at 10% loss, then buy a certain % of the stock at a 15% loss. This allows you to average down and essentially reduce your cost basis. IE a lot of us did this with FDX as it went from $300 down to $240 then back to $320.
3. The same can be said to lock in your gains, or at least a % of them as the stock/derivatives appreciate. Alternatively I have seen some investors use the 50MA and 200MA to set their stop loss at.

Lots of options depending on what you feel most comfortable with.

I know it isn't a concrete answer because there isn't one as it really depends on the stock, your conviction and what catalysts exist to move the stock higher? I do believe it is worth considering, on your high conviction trades, to continue to average down to lower your cost basis which leads to more upside should the stock recover.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just my .02, I have been trimming a bit of my exposure here as rates have come down and semis have bounced back quickly. I am still long, ASML (they make the machines that manufacture chips, AMAT (provide equipment/resources/software to chip makers), NVDA, AMD, TSM and MRVL but not adding currently. I spoke a few weeks ago on here about using SOXL, 3x leverage chip manufacturer when it was below $30 to use as a short term play when chips sell off but I have exited that position. I've been researching TER, no position here but interesting company that sells and supports testing equipment for chips, the more we use chips in society the more we will need testing equipment from them to ensure quality control - IMO little pricey today.

What are you buying? Anyone brave enough to buy into INTC at these levels?

i got into tsm and intel. got into tsm at around 116 or so, and intel at around 55 (2023 leaps for both). intel has looked pretty grim but with the new management and it being as big as it is i feel like they can still turn things around so i'm willing to take the risk. regrettably never got into nvda but basically had my finger on the buy button for some leaps back in march at around 470, but at that time everything was bleeding bad and i was down 30-50% on all my tech stocks that i averaged down on so i was waiting for a bit more of a dip

[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Few ideas for you but ultimately depends on your conviction and investment style. Most important is to remember sequence of returns, if you are down 50% you need to be up 100% to breakeven.

1. You can use a multi-leg stop loss, when you are down 10% sell xyz% of position, down 20% sell xyz% of position. I can't tell you what xyz is as that is dependent on each position and your conviction within it. Personally exiting 100% of a position on first leg down means you usually miss the bounce back, hence why to have a multi-leg. Again is case by case, if there is consequential news you believe the stock can not recover from, then you need to re-adjust.
2. You can combine a stop loss with a stop buy. IE you can sell a certain amount of your position at 10% loss, then buy a certain % of the stock at a 15% loss. This allows you to average down and essentially reduce your cost basis. IE a lot of us did this with FDX as it went from $300 down to $240 then back to $320.
3. The same can be said to lock in your gains, or at least a % of them as the stock/derivatives appreciate. Alternatively I have seen some investors use the 50MA and 200MA to set their stop loss at.

Lots of options depending on what you feel most comfortable with.

I know it isn't a concrete answer because there isn't one as it really depends on the stock, your conviction and what catalysts exist to move the stock higher? I do believe it is worth considering, on your high conviction trades, to continue to average down to lower your cost basis which leads to more upside should the stock recover.

Thanks for the response. I really did not want to exit all the way and I like that first option and will most likely use the second one. Sell some and buy back at a lower price is great.

And thanks again for the multi-leg stop loss, as soon as I read it I remember reading it from you before. I can be a knucklehead.

Thanks. Have a good week!

Thanks everyone, my favorite thread!

[logo]

Seems everything taking a beating apart from big tech. Still a positive long term outlook for me on reopening stocks like COTY, SABR, and a few small cap tech/energy stocks, so I will look to average down if this persists over the next few days and potentially look to trim some tech exposure as it continues to rise.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

Thanks for the response. I really did not want to exit all the way and I like that first option and will most likely use the second one. Sell some and buy back at a lower price is great.

And thanks again for the multi-leg stop loss, as soon as I read it I remember reading it from you before. I can be a knucklehead.

Thanks. Have a good week!

Thanks everyone, my favorite thread!

You are very welcome, feel free to PM me if I can ever help or add any clarity.

Originally Posted by logo

Seems everything taking a beating apart from big tech. Still a positive long term outlook for me on reopening stocks like COTY, SABR, and a few small cap tech/energy stocks, so I will look to average down if this persists over the next few days and potentially look to trim some tech exposure as it continues to rise.

Both getting hit hard due to delta variant fears, if we see more lockdowns and travel restrictions they will both further decline from here. 2023 chain gives plenty of runway for the trade to work though. SABR released an 8K last week showing the significant uptrend in travel, biggest recovery in hotel bookings, really wish they would publish their 2020 comps to make the numbers look much more favorable. Neither can afford for us to revert back to shutdowns and mask mandates, otherwise they will need a cap raise/share dilution causing more downward pressure. I agree with you though, short term vol creates an opportunity to average down. I'm averaging down too on the SABR $12C 2023 added another 40 contracts this morning, squeezed in @ $3. Short of the entire world shutting down, it is wild to me these are pricing at $3 for $12 strike by 2023 when high this year was $16 alone. Waiting in on COTY, not seeing much movement on 2023 option chain.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You are very welcome, feel free to PM me if I can ever help or add any clarity.



Both getting hit hard due to delta variant fears, if we see more lockdowns and travel restrictions they will both further decline from here. 2023 chain gives plenty of runway for the trade to work though. SABR released an 8K last week showing the significant uptrend in travel, biggest recovery in hotel bookings, really wish they would publish their 2020 comps to make the numbers look much more favorable. Neither can afford for us to revert back to shutdowns and mask mandates, otherwise they will need a cap raise/share dilution causing more downward pressure. I agree with you though, short term vol creates an opportunity to average down. I'm averaging down too on the SABR $12C 2023 added another 40 contracts this morning, squeezed in @ $3. Short of the entire world shutting down, it is wild to me these are pricing at $3 for $12 strike by 2023 when high this year was $16 alone. Waiting in on COTY, not seeing much movement on 2023 option chain.

my worry with averaging down into coty is that earnings are coming up (well, kinda since it's end of aug) and it tends to sell off post earnings. i've been averaging down into it the past few months but if this continues i can see it going below $8 post earnings, so might save some cash for that point

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

my worry with averaging down into coty is that earnings are coming up (well, kinda since it's end of aug) and it tends to sell off post earnings. i've been averaging down into it the past few months but if this continues i can see it going below $8 post earnings, so might save some cash for that point

I agree and I’m also saving some cash for this, but at the same time the past sell-offs have occurred following a 10-15% run up in the weeks prior. I think if we head into ER in the $8 range I’m less concerned about it dumping huge. If it runs back to high 9s or 10s I’ll probably trim some but not all exposure.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

my worry with averaging down into coty is that earnings are coming up (well, kinda since it's end of aug) and it tends to sell off post earnings. i've been averaging down into it the past few months but if this continues i can see it going below $8 post earnings, so might save some cash for that point

Would think it is a similar move to the last two ER that we did, buy the rumor, sell the news. Run up in SP to ER then trim position prior which resulted in nice gains, I am not sure this quarter is going to be that much different since it isn't a complete quarter of lifting mask restrictions, especially in Europe. Personally, I will look to trim my remaining 2022 position on a runup and re-allocate to 2023 chain as I mentioned here prior to last ER. Also note you have a short term catalyst with the re-branding and new launch of Kylie cosmetics in the next two weeks, one of their biggest revenue drivers. CEO continues to focus on using better ingredients, improved formula, better quality control vegan etc Again focusing on rebuilding the brand. If we see high demand and or a initial day sellout, this could bode well for the SP. Doesn't hurt Sue was just awarded with over 30M RSUs so I would not expect her to go anywhere.


Just my .02, it is a 2023 play (especially with just dipping their toes into Asia market and e-commerce) that has delivered YTD and look forward to seeing where we go when normalcy returns. I've learned way too much about makeup and cosmetics this year but looking forward to the next few quarters.

[jaisonline]

My wife’s favorite makeup is It by L'Oréal. She won’t buy a COTY brand to support our leaps :(

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just my .02, it is a 2023 play (especially with just dipping their toes into Asia market and e-commerce) that has delivered YTD and look forward to seeing where we go when normalcy returns. I've learned way too much about makeup and cosmetics this year but looking forward to the next few quarters.

Love it

[logo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

My wife’s favorite makeup is It by L'Oréal. She won’t buy a COTY brand to support our leaps :(

Haha, tell her the proceeds of leaps will fund a future L’Oréal purchase. A current COTY purchase is basically a call option on a future L’Oréal purchase lol. But really, L’Oréal is a huge brand - much of the stuff we see in pharmacies and grocery stores is all L’Oréal, in addition to their higher end portfolio like Lancôme, YSL, Kiehls etc.

Originally Posted by 7sins

I've learned way too much about makeup and cosmetics this year but looking forward to the next few quarters.

Global skincare (medical and cosmetic) is nearly a 1 trillion dollar market. Lots of opportunities in this space, I think

[77T]

Alright, who did the big short at 2am this morning…or has Cozy Bear penned Warren Buffet’s account to do the bet?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 77T

Alright, who did the big short at 2am this morning…or has Cozy Bear penned Warren Buffet’s account to do the bet?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

lol looks like we're in for a bloodbath

[77T]

Originally Posted by huncho

lol looks like we're in for a bloodbath

Risk-Off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[logo]

New Wheels Up (ASPL, soon UP) partnership with Porsche:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301327639.html

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

New Wheels Up (ASPL, soon UP) partnership with Porsche:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301327639.html

Where are you allocating on this? Adding to the warrants or underlying stock, SP which seems like a deal at $9.80? Trouble deciding between the two.

Originally Posted by jaisonline

My wife’s favorite makeup is It by L'Oréal. She won’t buy a COTY brand to support our leaps :(

HAHA tell her to support the cause, I bought some cologne last week


Some good news for us on SABR after a challenging day with delta fears rising.

That is directionally BULLISH with massive call buying and a very low put/call ratio, a positive sign to form for a reversal. The april 22 $10c took a beating today, starting adding there as it is these downward drafts where you can really make money. SABR is now NEGATIVE YTD, truly believe this is oversold given the rebound we are seeing in travel.

Also began starter position in TBT jan 2023 $18C and will add if rates keep moving down, can't see rates staying sub 1.30%. Looking at June 2022 TBT chain as well, those are priced well with a decent runway. As always, just my .02 and some moves I am making, not financial advice by any means.

If you don't subscribe to TheFly (stupid name) News, I would highly highly encourage you to. Great way to get updates along the day for opportunities and events happening behind the scenes. You have to sift through a bit of the inconsequential emails though.

Lastly, been doing a ton of reading on delta variant, hospitalizations and the real impact this could have on travel as I add to my SABR and COTY positions. Few interesting things I found:

"On Wednesday, the Delta variant became America’s dominant COVID strain. Yet it’s no cause for panic: The numbers — especially in Britain, which Delta hit hard — show it causes far fewer hospitalizations and deaths, while vaccines remain highly effective against it."

"Yes, Delta, does appear more contagious than the Alpha variant about 50 percent more transmissible, which is why it’s outpaced Alpha there. The huge UK case spike didn’t lead to similar hospitalization or death spikes, so Britain’s back on track to lift regulations July 19."

"The seven-day average of new UK cases is above 25,000, the highest since late January, when the weekly average had just dropped from a peak of 50,000. But only 2,000 COVID cases are hospitalized, vs. nearly 40,000 in January. Daily deaths average under 20, vs. more than 1,000 in January."

"And while Delta caused a 10 percent rise in daily US cases late last month, COVID hospital admissions actually dropped."

Anyways, the conclusions here I think are all similar, these are media tactics to say the delta variant is significantly worse. As we are seeing, it is much more contagious but significantly less deadly and leading to less hospitalizations. Also the data shows the uptick in cases are in cities/countries with very low vax rates. All in all, personally I think this is an over-reaction and why I think this is a bit oversold creating an opportunity to average down.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

That is directionally BULLISH with massive call buying and a very low put/call ratio, a positive sign to form for a reversal. The april 22 $10c took a beating today, starting adding there as it is these downward drafts where you can really make money. SABR is now NEGATIVE YTD, truly believe this is oversold given the rebound we are seeing in travel.

Also began starter position in TBT jan 2023 $18C and will add if rates keep moving down, can't see rates staying sub 1.30%. Looking at June 2022 TBT chain as well, those are priced well with a decent runway. As always, just my .02 and some moves I am making, not financial advice by any means.

If you don't subscribe to TheFly (stupid name) News, I would highly highly encourage you to. Great way to get updates along the day for opportunities and events happening behind the scenes. You have to sift through a bit of the inconsequential emails though.

Lastly, been doing a ton of reading on delta variant, hospitalizations and the real impact this could have on travel as I add to my SABR and COTY positions. Few interesting things I found:

"On Wednesday, the Delta variant became America’s dominant COVID strain. Yet it’s no cause for panic: The numbers — especially in Britain, which Delta hit hard — show it causes far fewer hospitalizations and deaths, while vaccines remain highly effective against it."

"Yes, Delta, does appear more contagious than the Alpha variant about 50 percent more transmissible, which is why it’s outpaced Alpha there. The huge UK case spike didn’t lead to similar hospitalization or death spikes, so Britain’s back on track to lift regulations July 19."

"The seven-day average of new UK cases is above 25,000, the highest since late January, when the weekly average had just dropped from a peak of 50,000. But only 2,000 COVID cases are hospitalized, vs. nearly 40,000 in January. Daily deaths average under 20, vs. more than 1,000 in January."

"And while Delta caused a 10 percent rise in daily US cases late last month, COVID hospital admissions actually dropped."

Anyways, the conclusions here I think are all similar, these are media tactics to say the delta variant is significantly worse. As we are seeing, it is much more contagious but significantly less deadly and leading to less hospitalizations. Also the data shows the uptick in cases are in cities/countries with very low vax rates. All in all, personally I think this is an over-reaction and why I think this is a bit oversold creating an opportunity to average down.

That’s good info to know, appreciate it. TBH though, I don’t know how you were able to look that up with the Diablo in tow