Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's definitely weird that there's so much OI for 2 expiries while the others are non existent and the merger was only postponed and not killed off...but at the same time i've tried a few plays like this in the past where there were some very suspicious OIs and nothing happened but those weren't based on anything besides strictly looking at the activity

i grabbed some jan 23 calls as well for now, was tempted to go with jan 22 but looking at the profit chart it doesn't really give much room for a pop if the merger is announced in sept or oct. will prob add a bit more if it goes down but yeah even for a speculative play i feel like calls 1.5 years out are worth it and not a giant gamble. figure better safe than sorry here, but also went with $4.5c just to get a bit more action

That is what I found, so "approx 15 days" should be right around now but doesn't mean they can't push it further out.

[JParm]

TWTR and SNAP earnings driving social media stocks way up.

Next week should be interesting for FB, PINS, GOOGL and the rest of the tech stocks.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

That is what I found, so "approx 15 days" should be right around now but doesn't mean they can't push it further out.

oh yeah i just saw them saying it would still happen in Q3 and figured it could still be a bit later. makes sense seeing the contract activity though. are you gonna try any jan 22 calls or just play it safe with 23s?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

TWTR and SNAP earnings driving social media stocks way up.

Next week should be interesting for FB, PINS, GOOGL and the rest of the tech stocks.

really hoping this earnings season can push tech up a bit unlike the last one. are you still in big tech?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by huncho

really hoping this earnings season can push tech up a bit unlike the last one. are you still in big tech?

8 holdings for me, in order of weight -

GOOGL, SE, PINS, FB, SQ, SHOP, TSLA, U.

I haven't made as many moves of late, outside of adding to these core holdings. If I did initiate a new position elsewhere, they would leave fairly quickly if they didn't react the way I had expected. MELI was a core holding until fairly recently; I just feel like with SE now in the Latin America space, there might be too much competition for them to make much more headway than what they've already done.

Again, we have two different sides of our portfolio - one with mutual funds / bonds that are safer and this side, where I'm obviously growth, growth, growth. Pretty equal split in terms of money between the stocks and mutual funds, but the stock side is managed much more actively by me.

Also haven't been into options as much as I was in 2020...the ebbs and flows just came easier to manage then! Outside of what we saw at the onset of this year, I'm pretty happy with where we have been thus far.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

8 holdings for me, in order of weight -

GOOGL, SE, PINS, FB, SQ, SHOP, TSLA, U.

I haven't made as many moves of late, outside of adding to these core holdings. If I did initiate a new position elsewhere, they would leave fairly quickly if they didn't react the way I had expected. MELI was a core holding until fairly recently; I just feel like with SE now in the Latin America space, there might be too much competition for them to make much more headway than what they've already done.

Again, we have two different sides of our portfolio - one with mutual funds / bonds that are safer and this side, where I'm obviously growth, growth, growth. Pretty equal split in terms of money between the stocks and mutual funds, but the stock side is managed much more actively by me.

Also haven't been into options as much as I was in 2020...the ebbs and flows just came easier to manage then! Outside of what we saw at the onset of this year, I'm pretty happy with where we have been thus far.

i haven't made any tech moves in a while as well. whatever i still have was what i got into back in march/april when we had those pretty big corrections. there are some companies that i'm really long on but i just can't get myself to get in or hold them at these prices because it feels like i'll end up holding the bag lol. and yeah options have been pretty tough this year with the market being essentially sideways but in a very volatile way, definitely better for mental health to just buy and hold shares. you have any price targets on the ones you're holding or you just plan to hold them for a few years and see where that goes?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by huncho

i haven't made any tech moves in a while as well. whatever i still have was what i got into back in march/april when we had those pretty big corrections. there are some companies that i'm really long on but i just can't get myself to get in or hold them at these prices because it feels like i'll end up holding the bag lol. and yeah options have been pretty tough this year with the market being essentially sideways but in a very volatile way, definitely better for mental health to just buy and hold shares. you have any price targets on the ones you're holding or you just plan to hold them for a few years and see where that goes?

The latter. I like the way these companies have been operating, and outside of U - which is a bit more of speculative than the others - I'm fairly optimistic that they'll continue to produce and lead in their respective spaces for at least the next couple of years.

U has the potential to become a market leader, but there's a reason it's the smallest holding, as I need to see more execution before I can make a determination on increasing / decreasing exposure.

[huncho]

Vinco Ventures and ZASH Global Media and Entertainment through their Joint Venture, ZVV Media Partners, Completes Acquisition of Lomotif

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vinco...125100083.html

stock was up to 4.1 premarket and dumped now (along with the calls). sell the news happened so quick lol. grabbed some jan 22 calls as well since prices dropped so much, but maybe there won't be as much upside as we thought? willing to let it play out for a few months though

[austinp]

I wanted to thank Tim Apple and the fine folks at AAPL for covering my kids tuition again this year. Much appreciated!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

Vinco Ventures and ZASH Global Media and Entertainment through their Joint Venture, ZVV Media Partners, Completes Acquisition of Lomotif

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vinco...125100083.html

stock was up to 4.1 premarket and dumped now (along with the calls). sell the news happened so quick lol. grabbed some jan 22 calls as well since prices dropped so much, but maybe there won't be as much upside as we thought? willing to let it play out for a few months though

My understanding is they haven’t released the finalized proxy vote to BBIG share holders that will say how much % current BBIG holders will receive in this merger. I think that will be the driver since you are seeing merger announcement not have a material impact.

10% is the conservative estimate. So that would mean 500m MC or 5x current share price. Others are saying 20 or 30% but I can't fathom that. Going to give it a few months, hard to imagine it goes that much lower from here.


@Logo, what are you doing with your UP shares, quite the downward spiral, you adding here at 8.35? Seems like it is just following the typical post SPAC selloff.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

My understanding is they haven’t released the finalized proxy vote to BBIG share holders that will say how much % current BBIG holders will receive in this merger. I think that will be the driver since you are seeing merger announcement not have a material impact.

10% is the conservative estimate. So that would mean 500m MC or 5x current share price. Others are saying 20 or 30% but I can't fathom that. Going to give it a few months, hard to imagine it goes that much lower from here.


@Logo, what are you doing with your UP shares, quite the downward spiral, you adding here at 8.35? Seems like it is just following the typical post SPAC selloff.

yeah i'm willing to let this one play out because i'm not sure how it can go below $3 at this point. would feel less confident if it didn't have the option flow that it does, but regardless, options are dirt cheap and with such a small market cap it's not like it would be hard to move it a few dollars. maybe it'll pay for a new rolex lol

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

@Logo, what are you doing with your UP shares, quite the downward spiral, you adding here at 8.35? Seems like it is just following the typical post SPAC selloff.

I’m pretty surprised by the movement here, down 20% in 2 days on no news. I don’t know where/when it will bottom out, but I’m slowly adding into a full position. With their projected revenue of 1 billion this year, and last quarters YoY revenue growth over 60%, they are trading at a P/S of ~2, which is basically the same as other airlines (LUV=3, DAL=1.5, SAVE=2), but other airlines aren’t posting that sort of growth. I googled the video of the CEO from a few weeks ago, I think it’s a good one to watch for those interested:

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/video/w...212433389.html

[scarlet knight]

Chinese stocks tanking. No surprise, investing in stocks domiciled in authoritarian countries is a risky proposition.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Chinese stocks tanking. No surprise, investing in stocks domiciled in authoritarian countries is a risky proposition.

agreed but at the same time baba at 190 is basically back to late 2017 - early 2018 levels while having grown over 100%. risk is extremely high everywhere right now even if you just buy s&p but the reward with a few of these chinese stocks is a lot higher. it just comes at the expense of speculation and not fundamentals

[logo]

Poured some mezcal for Monday after averaging down on UP today. Tomorrow is tequila Tuesday, then bourbon whiskey Wednesday … I can go all week. I will keep averaging down until this sucker goes UP. Earnings should be in ~3 weeks, and hopefully will serve as a bit of a catalyst. Stock now trading <2x 2021 revenue. There has been a high daily short volume, all while short and long term options are heavily weighted towards calls.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah i'm willing to let this one play out because i'm not sure how it can go below $3 at this point. would feel less confident if it didn't have the option flow that it does, but regardless, options are dirt cheap and with such a small market cap it's not like it would be hard to move it a few dollars. maybe it'll pay for a new rolex lol

Giving up the 6% gains from yesterday but I think it is going to be a volatile few weeks until final proxy vote for merger next month. The Jan 2023 $3 are all the way down to $1.20 and what I have been adding to. CEO was on Benzinga Power Hour yesterday I would encourage listening to and SA article putting $20PT on the stock which I think is a bit inflated, I would happily take $7-8 and close the position. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...le-still-cheap

Originally Posted by logo

Poured some mezcal for Monday after averaging down on UP today. Tomorrow is tequila Tuesday, then bourbon whiskey Wednesday … I can go all week. I will keep averaging down until this sucker goes UP. Earnings should be in ~3 weeks, and hopefully will serve as a bit of a catalyst. Stock now trading <2x 2021 revenue. There has been a high daily short volume, all while short and long term options are heavily weighted towards calls.

Try El Jolgorio and Mal Bien, two of my favorite Mezcals. Today is going to be a blurry Tequila Tuesday amidst this sea of red.

Been adding to the UP $7.50C Feb 2022, should be a long enough runway to at least get back to $10 and are on sale for ~$1.70. Can't stay suppressed forever, especially with such a large stake from Delta.

Also continuing to add to TSM each day below $115, floor looks to be around $108 for the year.

[7sins]

2 articles for those looking for an interesting read:

US Travelers Defy New COVID Fears: Airlines & Hotels Perk Up - This takes a look behind the scenes as travel demand is continuing to pickup even with delta variant, a positive for those in SABR.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-t...-up-2021-07-26

Another piece by Goldman Sachs discussing where they see the biggest opportunities amongst beaten down stocks. Personally I am staying away from airlines, even though they have given up a large portion of their gains YTD, they took on so much debt during covid I think it will take time for them to truly recover. Caveat being Alaska Airlines, following closely but no position.
https://news.yahoo.com/these-beat-up...123021571.html

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Giving up the 6% gains from yesterday but I think it is going to be a volatile few weeks until final proxy vote for merger next month. The Jan 2023 $3 are all the way down to $1.20 and what I have been adding to. CEO was on Benzinga Power Hour yesterday I would encourage listening to and SA article putting $20PT on the stock which I think is a bit inflated, I would happily take $7-8 and close the position. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...le-still-cheap



Try El Jolgorio and Mal Bien, two of my favorite Mezcals. Today is going to be a blurry Tequila Tuesday amidst this sea of red.

Been adding to the UP $7.50C Feb 2022, should be a long enough runway to at least get back to $10 and are on sale for ~$1.70. Can't stay suppressed forever, especially with such a large stake from Delta.

Also continuing to add to TSM each day below $115, floor looks to be around $108 for the year.

Nice! I added shares and might sell covered calls monthly.

Just picked up some Los Siete Misterios Pechuga - supposed to be amazing but haven’t tried yet. I’ll have to go on the hunt for El Jolgorio and Mal Bien, thanks for the recommendation!

[huncho]

no end in sight for sofi's bottom, you would think it's a chinese stock at this point

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Giving up the 6% gains from yesterday but I think it is going to be a volatile few weeks until final proxy vote for merger next month. The Jan 2023 $3 are all the way down to $1.20 and what I have been adding to. CEO was on Benzinga Power Hour yesterday I would encourage listening to and SA article putting $20PT on the stock which I think is a bit inflated, I would happily take $7-8 and close the position. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...le-still-cheap

yeah not sure if i'd be able to hold even past 15 lol. that would already be around a 10 bagger

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Nice! I added shares and might sell covered calls monthly.

Just picked up some Los Siete Misterios Pechuga - supposed to be amazing but haven’t tried yet. I’ll have to go on the hunt for El Jolgorio and Mal Bien, thanks for the recommendation!

Hit my wire this afternoon on $UP, new buy rating and $13PT from Jefferies:

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu initiated coverage of Wheels Up with a Buy rating and $13 price target. Her business jet broker survey points to higher interest in fractional/charter over the next three years and she sees Wheels Up expanding its top-line through member growth, driving a 27% compound annual revenue growth rate through 2023.

Starting to look at the UP $5C now, deeper ITM, less vol but a run back to $10 will net a nice gain. Seems like the jet fuel shortage news is disproportionately hitting them this week.

I will continue your mezcal monday tradition into Tequila Tuesday amongst the sea of red today. Cheers to everyone in this thread, the great ideas, collaboration and to our future/delayed gains.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Hit my wire this afternoon on $UP, new buy rating and $13PT from Jefferies:

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu initiated coverage of Wheels Up with a Buy rating and $13 price target. Her business jet broker survey points to higher interest in fractional/charter over the next three years and she sees Wheels Up expanding its top-line through member growth, driving a 27% compound annual revenue growth rate through 2023.

Starting to look at the UP $5C now, deeper ITM, less vol but a run back to $10 will net a nice gain. Seems like the jet fuel shortage news is disproportionately hitting them this week.

I will continue your mezcal monday tradition into Tequila Tuesday amongst the sea of red today. Cheers to everyone in this thread, the great ideas, collaboration and to our future/delayed gains.

So funny enough, I googled El Jolgorio and after seeing the bottle realized I actually tried it at a buddy’s place recently. And right you are, I recall it was fantastic. Haven’t seen it lately but now that I’m reminded I’ll keep my eyes open. Really like that good Mezcal still has that small batch vibe going and hasn’t yet been majorly mass produced.

I see you are a Clase Azul fan as well. That is some wicked juice, wonderful vanilla on the nose. It’s my favorite reposado for sure. Best añejo so far is the Gran Patron Piedra. About as authentic as tequila gets to how it was intended to be made before mass production took over, and the age gives it this awesome caramel color with deep flavor.

[jaisonline]

Two minor updates.
DIS , we have a trip planned for Nov. Apparently, WDL & WDW cancellations might become a short term problem. I’m hearing and reading about many trip cancellations from my medical / hospital and pharma colleagues. Also, my wife has been reading similar posts in her various hidden Facebook groups. As a Disney shareholder, I’m definitely following this.

I also had my VividSeats SkyBox demo last week (hopefully HZAC who received another “buy” rating today). I’m now in the program. Not crazy about the “event date plus 4 month wait” to get paid for new large sellers like myself.

Their Skybox web site looks great and will allow NFL barcodes to be listed (needs to be copied & pasted per seat per game from any NFL team’s Ticketmaster-based site…ugh ). Their point of sale system will automatically list NFL games onto Ticketmaster, StubHub, & Vivid simultaneously. Not sure if Vivid gets a fee commission for StubHub & Ticketmaster sales though.

One key problem I see is the the current Vivid web site will not accept non-Vivid large sellers to lost NFL games. Only large sellers (via SkyBox) will be able to sell NFL games on their site. Not sure why Vivid doesn’t allow regular customers to sell their NFL w/o Skybox. They are losing revenue here to Ticketmaster & StubHub here.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Two minor updates.
DIS , we have a trip planned for Nov. Apparently, WDL & WDW cancellations might become a short term problem. I’m hearing and reading about many trip cancellations from my medical / hospital and pharma colleagues. Also, my wife has been reading similar posts in her various hidden Facebook groups. As a Disney shareholder, I’m definitely following this.

I also had my VividSeats SkyBox demo last week (hopefully HZAC who received another “buy” rating today). I’m now in the program. Not crazy about the “event date plus 4 month wait” to get paid for new large sellers like myself.

Their Skybox web site looks great and will allow NFL barcodes to be listed (needs to be copied & pasted per seat per game from any NFL team’s Ticketmaster-based site…ugh ). Their point of sale system will automatically list NFL games onto Ticketmaster, StubHub, & Vivid simultaneously. Not sure if Vivid gets a fee commission for StubHub & Ticketmaster sales though.

One key problem I see is the the current Vivid web site will not accept non-Vivid large sellers to lost NFL games. Only large sellers (via SkyBox) will be able to sell NFL games on their site. Not sure why Vivid doesn’t allow regular customers to sell their NFL w/o Skybox. They are losing revenue here to Ticketmaster & StubHub here.

Pm me I have a solution that’ll make ur life a lot easier and get you paid out right away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Zack21]

Any thoughts with what is going on with AUPH today? I don't see any news.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Zack21

Any thoughts with what is going on with AUPH today? I don't see any news.

Hopefully you guys stayed with AUPH over the last few months I have been talking about it along with ViperEater. Seeing the run spillover from yesterday, yest was 2x volume and today is 3x volume, roughly 28% move in two days and IV expansion almost 8%.

There is literally zero news, certainly not to account for this type of move and volume. The few items are:

1. The run really started yesterday when the deal was closed with AUPH winning US Gov contract from Veteran Affairs

2. They voluntarily removed themselves from the TSX (toronto stock exchange), this is often an indication of a future buyout - this has nothing to do with US listing.

3. Seeing 9 TIMES normal call buying today and it was elevated yesterday, could be a headfake for retail to drive the share price up prior to ER but this heavy call volume is leading share volume as people believe buyout (probably from GSK) is close.

4. Earnings is next Thursday, the consensus was they would actually miss on ER from Peter's comments on the last few calls where he was rather aloof and blaming COVID for lackluster sales.

5. Could be leaked buyout or script numbers prior to ER, I would say the latter more probable.

Remember average analyst PT I believe is $27, the stock was unnecessarily beaten down after FDA approval with 10yr copyright protection.

I've been averaging down the last few months on 2023 calls across multiple strikes which was challenging but certainly paid off but even back at $14 we are just back to June prices, this hit $20 on FDA approval. Anyways, I am in for long run and add when it dips as this is a life saving drug and will be Standard of Care for Lupkynis. Just my .02 but nice to see a bit more rationality around the stock and reduces a bit anxiety as it is a large position for me. Would be happy with $25 BO which is about $2.5B valuation and move on from the position.

Originally Posted by logo

So funny enough, I googled El Jolgorio and after seeing the bottle realized I actually tried it at a buddy’s place recently. And right you are, I recall it was fantastic. Haven’t seen it lately but now that I’m reminded I’ll keep my eyes open. Really like that good Mezcal still has that small batch vibe going and hasn’t yet been majorly mass produced.
.

If you enjoyed El Jolgorio, DEFINITELY give the Mal Bien Madrecuixe a go, it is a notch above in my opinion. Clase Azul is great, I prefer the Mandala extra anejo for a similar but smoother taste. I'll see if I can get my hands on a bottle of the Piedra, I've tried the Burdeos which I think replaced it and thought it was okay but not worth the money.

[Zack21]

Thanks 7sins. I've been under water in AUPH for awhile and I hope this gain holds out.

[huncho]

yikes at paypal's dive after their earnings miss. anyone feel like we're due for a nasdaq correction after earnings? this feels exactly like last earnings season where big tech was crushing them but nothing could push the markets into a subsequent run up

[jaisonline]

I think PayPal will miss eBay’s business more than most expected.

Originally Posted by huncho

yikes at paypal's dive after their earnings miss. anyone feel like we're due for a nasdaq correction after earnings? this feels exactly like last earnings season where big tech was crushing them but nothing could push the stocks up past their january ath's (minus big cap tech which has been dragging nasdaq)

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I think PayPal will miss eBay’s business more than most expected.

good point, it seems like no one likes paypal in general. i got out of my leaps a few weeks ago because i don't really see what direction they can go in the future to expand besides focusing on integrating crypto payments into their network. of course their earnings are dragging sq down which i'm still holding though