More inflation shenanigans - rant

[Fleetlord]

The #1 shortage is LABOR.

It effects EVERYTHING

Logistics and Production are crippled in all markets, hence prices will rise to cover labor costs to attract labor back into those jobs that are now considered underpaying and undesirable.

It's impossible to get people do work in a monotonous factory job for $12hr when they either get more than that from stimulus supplementation or they can get a job at a truck stop for $17.00 hr doing 80% less work. The truck stop had to raise wages because they have to have employees to keep the truck stop open...etc..etc. So now the factory has to raise wages to get people to work there instead of the truck stop...so now the labor cost is carried over ultimately to end user...

Steel production is either limited domestically from labor shortages or it can't even get off the ships at the port because their aren't enough dock workers to unload freight..then when it gets off the ships, there aren't enough truckers to run the freight, so the companies have to pay way more to the truckers to get them interested in running the load, so the costs to move the ready made import stuff goes way way up.

Also, a bunch of companies mis forecast the impact of Covid on demand, so they scaled back production out of fear of getting caught with a bunch of unsold goods. Big error.

Combine this with some people spending money on things they are now getting around to since they couldn't go on their speedy vacation, so staring at their unfinished projects or old appliances is just so unbearable that they have to take action because they are bored out of their minds and their money supply wasn't impacted in any way...

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The #1 shortage is LABOR.

It effects EVERYTHING

Logistics and Production are crippled in all markets, hence prices will rise to cover labor costs to attract labor back into those jobs that are now considered underpaying and undesirable.

It's impossible to get people do work in a monotonous factory job for $12hr when they either get more than that from stimulus supplementation or they can get a job at a truck stop for $17.00 hr doing 80% less work. The truck stop had to raise wages because they have to have employees to keep the truck stop open...etc..etc. So now the factory has to raise wages to get people to work there instead of the truck stop...so now the labor cost is carried over ultimately to end user...

Steel production is either limited domestically from labor shortages or it can't even get off the ships at the port because their aren't enough dock workers to unload freight..then when it gets off the ships, there aren't enough truckers to run the freight, so the companies have to pay way more to the truckers to get them interested in running the load, so the costs to move the ready made import stuff goes way way up.

Also, a bunch of companies mis forecast the impact of Covid on demand, so they scaled back production out of fear of getting caught with a bunch of unsold goods. Big error.

Combine this with some people spending money on things they are now getting around to since they couldn't go on their speedy vacation, so staring at their unfinished projects or old appliances is just so unbearable that they have to take action because they are bored out of their minds and their money supply wasn't impacted in any way...

This too, the perfect storm.

[Ny325]

Wood, and steel prices are out of control. Along with food, and fuel at the pump.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The #1 shortage is LABOR.

It effects EVERYTHING

Logistics and Production are crippled in all markets, hence prices will rise to cover labor costs to attract labor back into those jobs that are now considered underpaying and undesirable.

It's impossible to get people do work in a monotonous factory job for $12hr when they either get more than that from stimulus supplementation or they can get a job at a truck stop for $17.00 hr doing 80% less work. The truck stop had to raise wages because they have to have employees to keep the truck stop open...etc..etc. So now the factory has to raise wages to get people to work there instead of the truck stop...so now the labor cost is carried over ultimately to end user...

Steel production is either limited domestically from labor shortages or it can't even get off the ships at the port because their aren't enough dock workers to unload freight..then when it gets off the ships, there aren't enough truckers to run the freight, so the companies have to pay way more to the truckers to get them interested in running the load, so the costs to move the ready made import stuff goes way way up.

Also, a bunch of companies mis forecast the impact of Covid on demand, so they scaled back production out of fear of getting caught with a bunch of unsold goods. Big error.

Combine this with some people spending money on things they are now getting around to since they couldn't go on their speedy vacation, so staring at their unfinished projects or old appliances is just so unbearable that they have to take action because they are bored out of their minds and their money supply wasn't impacted in any way...

[DLRIDES]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The #1 shortage is LABOR.

It effects EVERYTHING

I deal with the manufacturing sector daily, they know:

) There was a labor shortage pre-COVID
) There will be a labor shortage post COVID
) Will worsen with time


When the entitled breed, they raise entitled, it’s cycle that will never end ……………… generational laziness. We reached the point of no return +/- year 2000.

[gearguywb]

Shortages (in some sectors) are real.

Lumber shortage was primarily a factor of shutting down Canada and the mills grossly underestimating the demand during the lock down.

Free money floating around has folks working on projects that weren't even dreamed up 18 months ago.

Will it relax? Sure, but it will take time.

Used car values are finally relaxing. Lumber is coming down. If we could get folks to come to work it would sure help out with supply chain issues.

[GB-man]

I think we can solve this by ending stimulus and raising taxes on everyone making under 75k per year

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I think we can solve this by ending stimulus and raising taxes on everyone making under 75k per year

Now you're on to something....

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jltait

So I had a fence company come out today to give a quote on a chain link fence for a rather large area. We just got a dog and live next to the woods so figure it would be useful to keep him in and other animals like deer etc out.

The guy takes the measurements and rings back later. He says the fence will cost $10k, though last year would have been $3k. The metal poles which used to cost $8 are now $28 since steel is up etc etc.

Guess we’ll wait it out and see what happens. Maybe redirect the funds toward a watch.

Hope you do not want to buy a steel watch

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by DLRIDES

I deal with the manufacturing sector daily, they know:

) There was a labor shortage pre-COVID
) There will be a labor shortage post COVID
) Will worsen with time


When the entitled breed, they raise entitled, it’s cycle that will never end ……………… generational laziness. We reached the point of no return +/- year 2000.

You’re right, which is why they chose this time to pull this particular “shenanigan.”

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I think we can solve this by ending stimulus and raising taxes on everyone making under 75k per year

Wouldn’t that be nice.


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[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The #1 shortage is LABOR.

It effects EVERYTHING.

Is it a skilled labor shortage, or a 'cheap' skilled labor shortage? I know this can be challenging to answer.

[peter991]

Inflation now is over 2% it will not lead to anything good

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Now you're on to something....

should be easy to push through Congress right!?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Is it a skilled labor shortage, or a 'cheap' skilled labor shortage? I know this can be challenging to answer.

From my experience in the trades it's both.

Skilled mechanics, technicians, installers......very short.

Physical labor in terms of warehouse, loaders, drivers...impossibly short.

Plenty of engineers, designers, architects...just not enough people to implement the plan.

So the shortage is the hands on labor...both skilled and unskilled.

[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by pickettt

The shortages are artificial.

sounds like you don't really understand what you're talking about

[JParm]

Labor shortage, you say?

https://www.businessinsider.com/whit...hortage-2021-7

Insanity.

[DLRIDES]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Is it a skilled labor shortage, or a 'cheap' skilled labor shortage? I know this can be challenging to answer.

That’s easy to answer, the kind that will work labor shortage !




There are only two guaranteed motivators for mankind, hunger and fear. Until one or both of those are experienced, the days of “work” are gone.

The US government began this cycle of entitlement through expanded social programs in 1963, along with parents raising “charmed” offspring, all of which now is generational entitlement and will not reverse, exception being the above statement.

[904VT]

You should do a smaller chain link fence now and then when lumber fencing is more reasonable add a larger fence around the entire yard. Will be useful when you may not want your dog roaming the entire yard at night and in the meanwhile provide a solution. All for a lot less than the chain link large scale fence.

[m j b]

My neighbor signed a contract for a fence (remember the OP) and gave them a deposit in February, and it still has not been done. They claim supply issues. I don't doubt it.

He also got a quote for an in-ground pool, with estimates ranging from 110-140. That seems high. And at least a year delay on that.

And don't get me started on real estate prices. It's getting out of hand.

I'm not pointing a finger at the cause or suggesting the solution, it's just simply fact at this point. I agree that there are some businesses taking advantage of it, for instance, my pet peeve:

Restaurants who have closed their restrooms, "due to Covid". Sorry folks, we know that Covid cannot be transmitted via pee, but to save money we insist that you go elsewhere to relieve yourself. If your bladder cannot wait long enough to prepare your order, we suggest that you use our app to order ahead.

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by gb-man

Should be easy to push through congress right!?

lmao!

[austinp]

Material my business used to get in 6 weeks now take 20 weeks. The manufacturer says it’s because of demand. They are expanding and buying new machinery to catch up.


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[brandrea]

I feel for anyone renovating or doing a construction project like Nicholas.

I think we are may be in for a rude economic awakening.

[Fleetlord]

I was listening to a broadcast with a trucking analyst on satellite radio today and it’s essentially come to the point that an increasing number of people simply don’t want to do “dirty jobs” anymore, especially younger people who see individuals in the tech sector easily earn 6x or more than what they do…so they gravitate towards those fields instead.

Even $30 an hour mechanic jobs are tough to fill with younger workers because it just isn’t enough money. $62k a year is peanuts to work in grimey conditions when they can earn way more doing much less physical labor.

This a real problem now and even more so in the future.

[donas]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I was listening to a broadcast with a trucking analyst on satellite radio today and it’s essentially come to the point that an increasing number of people simply don’t want to do “dirty jobs” anymore, especially younger people who see individuals in the tech sector easily earn 6x or more than what they do…so they gravitate towards those fields instead.

Even $30 an hour mechanic jobs are tough to fill with younger workers because it just isn’t enough money. $62k a year is peanuts to work in grimey conditions when they can earn way more doing much less physical labor.

This a real problem now and even more so in the future.

Very valid points!! I have several things I'd like to say pertaining to "younger workers" and their desires, but it would get this thread closed and me banned

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I was listening to a broadcast with a trucking analyst on satellite radio today and it’s essentially come to the point that an increasing number of people simply don’t want to do “dirty jobs” anymore, especially younger people who see individuals in the tech sector easily earn 6x or more than what they do…so they gravitate towards those fields instead.

Even $30 an hour mechanic jobs are tough to fill with younger workers because it just isn’t enough money. $62k a year is peanuts to work in grimey conditions when they can earn way more doing much less physical labor.

This a real problem now and even more so in the future.

Only problem is that the tech sector jobs that are 6 figures require certain skill sets and talents. They are competitive. So these kids can gravitate towards them all they want but doesn’t mean you’ll get what you want. Problem is the entitlement generation will pout when they have to do the blue collar work because they graduated with a 2.6 gpa from a state college majoring in performance arts and beg the government to forgive their student loans.

PS: nothing wrong with state college, I’m a proud grad of University of Maryland. Loved it and will most definitely send my kids to a state school.


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[904VT]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Only problem is that the tech sector jobs that are 6 figures require certain skill sets and talents. They are competitive. So these kids can gravitate towards them all they want but doesn’t mean you’ll get what you want. Problem is the entitlement generation will pout when they have to do the blue collar work because they graduated with a 2.6 gpa from a state college majoring in performance arts and beg the government to forgive their student loans.

PS: nothing wrong with state college, I’m a proud grad of University of Maryland. Loved it and will most definitely send my kids to a state school.


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From my experience hiring, the Ivy league kids are even worse right out of school nowadays. Not all, but generally I've found they think they already know everything there is to know and are "experts". I'd take a graduate from a state college that is a hustler and willing to learn new skills any day and one that is ok to keep going when things aren't butterflies and rainbows. I'm talking with similar degrees though. If a graduate studied something completely irrelevant they get moved to the bottom of the list, always. Makes me also question their judgment. The only time school makes a difference to me is if graduate level or above, focused on a career path.

[Blansky]

I posted this on another thread a couple of days ago.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akgy...ign=pockethits

I think the shutdown during Covid had a lot of people evaluating their lives and I guess low income people are no exception.

Obviously a lot of shortages are supply chain and the fact that China shut down for a while. Worker shortages are a different thing and work from home are changing the landscape a lot.

Humans can handle evolution pretty well but revolution is harder on us. And within a year or so the world went through a revolution of sorts.

Change is hard.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I was listening to a broadcast with a trucking analyst on satellite radio today and it’s essentially come to the point that an increasing number of people simply don’t want to do “dirty jobs” anymore, especially younger people who see individuals in the tech sector easily earn 6x or more than what they do…so they gravitate towards those fields instead.

Even $30 an hour mechanic jobs are tough to fill with younger workers because it just isn’t enough money. $62k a year is peanuts to work in grimey conditions when they can earn way more doing much less physical labor.

This a real problem now and even more so in the future.

Isn't this how the free market is supposed to work? If there is a job to be done, there is a price to be paid by the employer to the worker. The workers aren't mandated to take a job they don't want if there are alternatives.

For reasons nobody will agree upon, there has been real wage stagnation for years that disproportionately affects lower earners, while real costs have increased for big ticket items like health care and housing. Meanwhile the top 10% of earners have seen all of the real wage growth.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...d-for-decades/

I find it hard to stomach when I hear all of this griping about increased cost of labor, materials, etc. from people who have enjoyed a steady increase in real purchasing power, while the majority of hard workers in the US haven't seen the same benefits over time. The only reason this hasn't come to a head sooner is the relentless stomping of anything resembling organized labor.

[Brenngun]

Some interesting reading from logistics experts. Time to get the rain gear out boys.

Air Freight
•Global air freight demand remains very strong and continues to rise as supply chain disruptions persist in July.
•Some regions are reaching the highest demand levels compared to recent years, with constant, large mode shifts from ocean to air freight in the face of supply chain challenges.
•H2, with its peak holiday season, is expected to experience significant capacity constraints, and it will be even more crucial to have air freight capacity access.
•The global commercial air passenger market is not improving, and no upside is forecast for H2, impacting commercial passenger belly freight capacity.
•North American demand is reaching historical levels due to major ocean freight supply constraints.
•Air freight capacity was down 11% year-on-year from June 15 to 28.
•Industry forecasters are projecting continued peak demand through the remainder of 2021 and into 2022 on strong economic growth.

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Ocean Freight
•Ocean freight demand exceeds supply more than previously forecast – with the adjusted 2021 growth outlook is now projected at 6.3%, up from the 3% with two-thirds of capacity already delivered into the trades.
•Missed sailings and subsequently missed equipment repositioning across all main trade routes continue to result from the Suez Canal blockage, with the situation in Yantian adding to the problems; both issues will impact the available allocation across all carriers and equipment availability for the remainder of Q3.
•Logistics disruptions result in significant pipeline inventory buildups, causing surges in import volumes; Los Angeles/Long Beach terminals have been addressing import surges, working through the vessel backlog that regularly was near 40 ships earlier this year anchor waiting to unload.
•Volume flows from Asia-Pacific to all destinations remain strong and will persist at least through Q3, with volumes from Europe surging (particularly to the Americas), leading to increased rates in all trade lanes.
•Global carrier schedule reliability is down to 38%, and the average vessel arrival delay is 6 to 7 days.
•The agent America Moving & Storage Association ceased operations, causing an excessive increase in the number of carriers with inactive authority.
•U.S. port congestion has decreased the number of driver turns because of a reduced number of loads per day; more drivers are exiting the business because longer port delays are reducing their pay; U.S. stimulus and unemployment actions are creating driver capacity gaps, with these labor shortages often being difficult to overcome due to the nature of the truck driving as a career.

Sea.png