The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Old 2 January 2019, 07:07 AM   #31
bearxj86
2019 HARRODS BB Pledge Member
 
bearxj86's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: 3970
Posts: 1,840
Breaking Down Hip-Hop's Love For Patek Philippe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KEsmOmGQLU

https://genius.com/discussions/30149...patek-philippe

https://pitchfork.com/levels/objecti...atek-philippe/
bearxj86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:11 AM   #32
turborolex
2019 SKY-DWELLER Pledge Member
 
turborolex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Real Name: H.
Location: USA
Posts: 421
The simple way to make up your mind: If you (or anyone) can afford it and really want it and donít want to wait to get it at MSRP, get it now and enjoy it!

Keeping in mind that if the ďbubbleĒ bursts, youíll lose a few grand if and when you decide to sell it.

But if someone is willing to pay $45,000 for a $30,000 watch from the get go, then I donít believe losing a few thousand dollars on a watch you wear and enjoy NOW will really break your bank. You may not be happy about the loss, but it will not hit you hard financially

I say the above putting aside whatever anyone believes about paying over MSRP for anything and whether or not you believe watches are a good investment.

Also, ignoring FOMO and possible buyers remorse when the honeymoon is over.

The more complex way to decide is to add what I ignored and disregarded back into the mix...then it becomes a tougher decision.

Thatís how I would make up my mind.





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
current collection: Patek 5712, Patek 5726 (white), Patek 5990, Patek 5524G, Rolex 116500 (white & black), AP 26331ST (Blue).
turborolex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:25 AM   #33
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMD View Post
The problem, which many people found out, is that the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay liquid. Lots of people went short in 2006 and got washed away.
that's right. and yet there were plenty of that tiny subset that staved off convexity, held tight, even double or tripled + down and saw the ponzi for what it was; they cleaned up. the point here is not timing this fraud up, but knowing what it really is and what that eventuality is, at some point in the (near) future. big difference between those getting defensive and demanding an actual super specific time for this insanity to end, yes?

i am on this forum doing my due diligence re a very specific piece that i can now assess as grossly overpriced and in nosebleed levels relative the rest of the nautilus bubble heh. i am exceedingly patient.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:29 AM   #34
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
i like the Gucci Mane, Future and Lil Yachty tracks.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:52 AM   #35
RHIII
2019 HARRODS BB Pledge Member
 
RHIII's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Real Name: Roger
Location: ...
Watch: AP/Rolex/PP
Posts: 5,503
Itís a great watch - and I love 5711s ó but I have to agree with Tyler ó I canít remember ever wanting something bad enough to pay 20% plus above retailó-

If I were looking right now for that reference - Iíd hang back a bit and see what happens in 1Q Ď19.

Just my .02


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
RHIII is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 08:03 AM   #36
GoingPlaces
2019 SKY-DWELLER Pledge Member
 
GoingPlaces's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: DC
Watch: me want more
Posts: 2,633
Not going up anytime soon. Perhaps a "softening" but certainly not a significant drop.
GoingPlaces is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 08:11 AM   #37
josephvman
Banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Houston, TX USA
Posts: 809
I don't have a dog in this hunt, other than it's nice to know that the 5167 I bought two years ago appears to be worth more than I paid for it.

I did recently have an interesting conversation with a collector/trader who owns many millions of dollars in Pateks and is connected with dealers/collectors worldwide. He thinks the current pricing is insanity and his argument for this being a bubble is that he doesn't believe end-users are paying these prices to buy and wear the watches. He thinks the run-up is nothing more than watches moving sideways amongst resellers. He's already being offered pieces at significantly less than the current asking prices on the market, but passing since he just doesn't think there are real buyers at the prevailing asking prices.

I'm curious if anyone here knows a buyer who paid $45k for a 5711 recently?
josephvman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 08:16 AM   #38
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by josephvman View Post
I don't have a dog in this hunt, other than it's nice to know that the 5167 I bought two years ago appears to be worth more than I paid for it.

I did recently have an interesting conversation with a collector/trader who owns many millions of dollars in Pateks and is connected with dealers/collectors worldwide. He thinks the current pricing is insanity and his argument for this being a bubble is that he doesn't believe end-users are paying these prices to buy and wear the watches. He thinks the run-up is nothing more than watches moving sideways amongst resellers. He's already being offered pieces at significantly less than the current asking prices on the market, but passing since he just doesn't think there are real buyers at the prevailing asking prices.

I'm curious if anyone here knows a buyer who paid $45k for a 5711 recently?
thanks for that. it confirms my research; in particular, a couple of Florida dealers and a couple of NYC dealers are seemingly colluding to skew this silliness and they have not been selling much. this is just an attempt to cash in on the greater ponzi. though a couple of pieces moved in classifieds on this forum fairly recently. i am sitting on sidelines now.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 08:34 AM   #39
rolexpatek363
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 628
Quote:
Originally Posted by KetaPatek View Post
that's right. and yet there were plenty of that tiny subset that staved off convexity, held tight, even double or tripled + down and saw the ponzi for what it was; they cleaned up. the point here is not timing this fraud up, but knowing what it really is and what that eventuality is, at some point in the (near) future. big difference between those getting defensive and demanding an actual super specific time for this insanity to end, yes?

i am on this forum doing my due diligence re a very specific piece that i can now assess as grossly overpriced and in nosebleed levels relative the rest of the nautilus bubble heh. i am exceedingly patient.
I'm not being "defensive", but it's the easiest thing to predict doom around the next corner and, one day, you may be right. The best anyone can do is assign percentage probabilities to various outcomes. Despite widespread gloom in the markets, however, Nautilus prices are still rising.

I think you'll need to be very patient indeed.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 08:42 AM   #40
red1108nyc
2019 DEEPSEA Pledge Member
 
red1108nyc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Real Name: Fred
Location: NYC/NJ Metro Area
Watch: Rolex
Posts: 7,661
Price has gone up a lot.
red1108nyc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 09:05 AM   #41
cwilson13
2019 Pledge Member
 
cwilson13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 1,208
Just an fyi...
David had a unworn 5711 white on his site a few days ago that was $45.5K.
Gone in less than 24 hours.
cwilson13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 09:14 AM   #42
np2016
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ohio
Posts: 292
Barring a worldwide recession or prolonged stock market crash I don't see the trend of stainless steel Patek models decreasing anytime soon. I would be shocked if they didn't increase prices on the aquanauts like they did the nautilus.
np2016 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 09:23 AM   #43
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
I'm not being "defensive", but it's the easiest thing to predict doom around the next corner and, one day, you may be right. The best anyone can do is assign percentage probabilities to various outcomes. Despite widespread gloom in the markets, however, Nautilus prices are still rising.

I think you'll need to be very patient indeed.
but the doom is already here; in fact, it has been since 2008. what you are seeing are the optics that you are allowed to see. namely, the "markets" have been synthetically rigged, luxury goods and until recently real estate and car sales were juiced as function of said rigging. Main St you are not seeing, clearly. take a drive through America and keep your eyes open, not even wide open, just a bit open and you will see my point. if you understand what has been going on in the "markets" since 2008 then you might better see what is really going on under the proverbial hood. [the info is out there, even the BIS is admitting and warning about what i am typing here, that's the central bank of central banks fyi.]

again, i just shared some opinions and observations. you think the bull run goes on indefinitely? you think these horological trinkets can only go one way and that's up? no problemo. you are right.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 09:51 AM   #44
rolexpatek363
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 628
Quote:
Originally Posted by KetaPatek View Post
but the doom is already here; in fact, it has been since 2008. what you are seeing are the optics that you are allowed to see. namely, the "markets" have been synthetically rigged, luxury goods and until recently real estate and car sales were juiced as function of said rigging. Main St you are not seeing, clearly. take a drive through America and keep your eyes open, not even wide open, just a bit open and you will see my point. if you understand what has been going on in the "markets" since 2008 then you might better see what is really going on under the proverbial hood. [the info is out there, even the BIS is admitting and warning about what i am typing here, that's the central bank of central banks fyi.]

again, i just shared some opinions and observations. you think the bull run goes on indefinitely? you think these horological trinkets can only go one way and that's up? no problemo. you are right.
The doom is here, and the Nautilus still continues to go up in price, so there is clearly no connection between Nautilus values and "the markets".

All I'm saying is that I think the Nautilus 5711/12 will continue to rise over the next 18 months. It would be the comedy thing to happen, and would add greatly to the gaiety of the nation, IMO.

It's just a bit of fun, after all, so let's see...
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 09:54 AM   #45
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
The doom is here, and the Nautilus still continues to go up in price, so there is clearly no connection between Nautilus values and "the markets".

All I'm saying is that I think the Nautilus 5711/12 will continue to rise over the next 18 months. It would be the comedy thing to happen, and would add greatly to the gaiety of the nation, IMO.

It's just a bit of fun, after all, so let's see...
see my previous comment re: some things can still spike as the bubble pops, until it all corrects. we are early in the correction. look at high end real estate here in nyc. signs are all here. watches are a peculiar niche.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 10:09 AM   #46
GB-man
2019 HARRODS BB Pledge Member
 
GB-man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: On the run
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 28,654
I personally paid 42k for a white dial 5711 then sold it for the same a few months later. It took some time. Dealer bought it.

I say bubble except not the kind that can shrink to zero. Worst case I think it will always be worth 15-20k. Even in dire economic conditions.
__________________
Instagram @theuncaught1
"Pleasure delayed is pleasure doubled" - Neil (AK797)
GB-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 10:14 AM   #47
dps
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Toronto
Watch: 5170P, 3940J, CHNR
Posts: 8
I sold my 2013 blue dial 5711 privately for $46k a couple of weeks ago. Picked up a 5170p. Not looking back...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
dps is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 10:52 AM   #48
The Argonaut
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: VA
Watch: GMT Master 1675
Posts: 1,051
Quote:
Originally Posted by josephvman View Post
I don't have a dog in this hunt, other than it's nice to know that the 5167 I bought two years ago appears to be worth more than I paid for it.

I did recently have an interesting conversation with a collector/trader who owns many millions of dollars in Pateks and is connected with dealers/collectors worldwide. He thinks the current pricing is insanity and his argument for this being a bubble is that he doesn't believe end-users are paying these prices to buy and wear the watches. He thinks the run-up is nothing more than watches moving sideways amongst resellers. He's already being offered pieces at significantly less than the current asking prices on the market, but passing since he just doesn't think there are real buyers at the prevailing asking prices.

I'm curious if anyone here knows a buyer who paid $45k for a 5711 recently?
And that really is an excellent point. There are likely a few that have sold. However, I'm watching many on Chrono24 and sure, there are lots of people looking, but few appear to be selling.
The Argonaut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 11:07 AM   #49
wulin
2019 Pledge Member
 
wulin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New York
Watch: PP,AP,Rolex,IWC
Posts: 519
Price will be able to stay at current level if they get discontinued.
wulin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 11:56 AM   #50
Ichiran
"TRF" Member
 
Ichiran's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: Michael
Location: Ramen queue
Watch: Mostly blue dials
Posts: 2,044
It's always interesting to re-read this thread again 1 year later and see what is the market price in 2020.
Ichiran is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 11:56 AM   #51
Kittayos
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Bkk
Posts: 151
Any steel nautilus once discontinued will skyrocket. Look at 5980/1a black dial. I used to buy it from AD for just 40k. Regardless of economic issue, 85k is the current asking price.

New 5711 blue (new dial) is selling at 60k here in asian market. 45k is a big bargain. It will go up a lot more. One day sooner or later patek will announce the discontinuation anyway. Good time to buy imo.
Kittayos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:11 PM   #52
sensui
2019 SKY-DWELLER Pledge Member
 
sensui's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 10,644
I think this is so subjective... Clearly no one "watch educated" would pay secondary grey pricing for 5711a imo.... Personally I think 30k new msrp is already a tall ask for what it is. For the grey pricing, there are so many better pieces out there you can buy....I think there are people buying at these prices but they are the "I just want the Nautilus because I hear it's the watch to have" type people that have money... So they won't blink at the grey pricing. Don't care where the value goes personally either, up or down....I just know I wouldn't pay this for the 5711a....I got much better choices in my mind for the money.
sensui is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:22 PM   #53
tonupbklyn
2019 Pledge Member
 
tonupbklyn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: bklyn
Posts: 1,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by dps View Post
I sold my 2013 blue dial 5711 privately for $46k a couple of weeks ago.
this is both encouraging and frustrating...depending on which side of the fence u currently stand with ownership of one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kittayos View Post
New 5711 blue (new dial) is selling at 60k here in asian market. 45k is a big bargain. It will go up a lot more.
this is actually the reason why i also believe the nautilus bubble may continue to expand. i think the APac market is the biggest gravity of the demand pulling the prices on these models. the ever-growing social status pursuit of this burgeoning audience continues to grab up all such models at gut-wrenching prices. u can look across all luxury brands, be it fashion, jewelry, automobiles...this market is on a tear. it’s no wonder why many of global brands across all sectors have been shifting their focus from US (saturated)/westernEU (stagnant) to APac.

hang on, i think this ride will continue on for some time.
tonupbklyn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:28 PM   #54
soundserious
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: usofmfa
Posts: 2,973
Discontinue this watch Mr. Stern. Fulfill your destiny!
__________________
Instagram: soundsoserious
soundserious is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:31 PM   #55
The Argonaut
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: VA
Watch: GMT Master 1675
Posts: 1,051
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kittayos View Post
New 5711 blue (new dial) is selling at 60k here in asian market. 45k is a big bargain. It will go up a lot more. One day sooner or later patek will announce the discontinuation anyway. Good time to buy imo.
Seriously? If so, that's what driving prices and the SS squeeze. If $15k over MSRP is considered a bargain, then this bubble still has plenty of air in it.
The Argonaut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 02:27 PM   #56
wisguy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,237
Quote:
Originally Posted by soundserious View Post
Donít worry too much about bubbles and MSRP and premiums. Everybody pays market price one way or another. If you have the means then buy it now. You donít want to end up like the guy waiting for 2 years and hoping for something to happen in two more. For what? A heart attack?
Amen
__________________
5146G
5711A
116400
Speedy Pro
wisguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 04:05 PM   #57
Karbo
"TRF" Member
 
Karbo's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Paris, France
Watch: Dayto/5164
Posts: 1,630
Buy it now and have fun
Worst case you will loose what ? 5k$ ? So what ?
If you have the possibility to add your name for a nautilus at your Ad you will wait 5 years... well in 5 years Retail price will be the same price as today at grey market :)) you just lost 5 years of fun !
__________________
IG : @aka_karbo
Karbo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 05:39 PM   #58
rollyp
2019 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Wherever I am
Watch: where your hand is
Posts: 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
I'm not being "defensive", but it's the easiest thing to predict doom around the next corner and, one day, you may be right. The best anyone can do is assign percentage probabilities to various outcomes. Despite widespread gloom in the markets, however, Nautilus prices are still rising.

I think you'll need to be very patient indeed.
Assigning percentage probabilities to these things is an exercise in futility as they cannot be quantified. KetaPatek is spot on in his assessment of the macro economic picture and a good part of this run up in watch prices is due to low interest rates and money printing. Nautilus asking prices have already come down from just a few months ago. Don't believe me? Follow prices on chrono24. The only way prices go up from here is if it gets discontinued.

Another interesting data point is there are now 10 5070Ps listed, when there used to be around 3-5 at any given time. Could be the stock market tanking is spooking some people into dumping their high dollar collectibles. As someone who owns both of these models, it's fun to watch them rise in value but the reality is that they can't continue this rate of appreciation and have probably reached a plateau for some time and in the case of the 5711, will come down, especially as the stock market continues to decline -- which it will.
rollyp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 06:45 PM   #59
cascavel
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 386
Buy it now. The white dial version of the 5711 is a relative bargain. There is always the possibility that, like the 5980, the white dial is cancelled first and then has the smallest production run.
It's a superb watch to wear and if the prices do crash you can then buy a blue dial 5711 and, if things get really cheap, a 3711.
cascavel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 08:20 PM   #60
rolexpatek363
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 628
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollyp View Post
Assigning percentage probabilities to these things is an exercise in futility as they cannot be quantified. KetaPatek is spot on in his assessment of the macro economic picture and a good part of this run up in watch prices is due to low interest rates and money printing. Nautilus asking prices have already come down from just a few months ago. Don't believe me? Follow prices on chrono24. The only way prices go up from here is if it gets discontinued.

Another interesting data point is there are now 10 5070Ps listed, when there used to be around 3-5 at any given time. Could be the stock market tanking is spooking some people into dumping their high dollar collectibles. As someone who owns both of these models, it's fun to watch them rise in value but the reality is that they can't continue this rate of appreciation and have probably reached a plateau for some time and in the case of the 5711, will come down, especially as the stock market continues to decline -- which it will.
Everything is quantifiable, and there's nothing in katapatek's analysis which can't be read in a newspaper. But the sad fact remains that nobody can really tell exactly what will happen, and more importantly when it will happen. Meanwhile, there is a big disconnect between the rising Nautilus asking prices and the falling markets.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


*Banner Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2019, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.