Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[huncho]

while the watch market has definitely crashed mostly due to everyone's portfolios speedrunning to 0, i think moda isn't entirely indicative of the market as a whole. moda is a very small niche and mostly consists of grey dealers so because of that it's essentially the same people auctioning against themselves. none of the greys want to buy anything and because of that the prices just get lower every day and watches end up sitting. it's the opposite of what was happening at the end of last year/beginning of this year, where these same people were just outbidding each other and driving prices up. in reality, how many "normal" people even know what moda is or would be willing to use it?

there's no denying the prices have been coming down, but the disconnect between moda and the real world situation at ADs is massive at this point. you're still unable to order PM pieces yet they're going for under retail on moda. i posted the same in the other giant thread but at some point the two markets have to meet somewhere in the middle, and where that'll be is anyone's guess at this point, but whatever is going on right now seems to be just greys artificially lowering prices because they're all dumping at once. until these watches are available at ADs again like in 2017 it's hard to imagine we see normal discounts for long. also the watch market seems to lag a lot so at this rate it looks like availability could get a lot better some time mid next year, but if we do get to that point next year and stocks/other markets start rebounding then it's anyones guess as to what happens again. these watches could just fly right back up

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by huncho

while the watch market has definitely crashed mostly due to everyone's portfolios speedrunning to 0, i think moda isn't entirely indicative of the market as a whole. moda is a very small niche and mostly consists of grey dealers so because of that it's essentially the same people auctioning against themselves. none of the greys want to buy anything and because of that the prices just get lower every day and watches end up sitting. it's the opposite of what was happening at the end of last year/beginning of this year, where these same people were just outbidding each other and driving prices up. in reality, how many "normal" people even know what moda is or would be willing to use it?

there's no denying the prices have been coming down, but the disconnect between moda and the real world situation at ADs is massive at this point. you're still unable to order PM pieces yet they're going for under retail on moda. i posted the same in the other giant thread but at some point the two markets have to meet somewhere in the middle, and where that'll be is anyone's guess at this point, but whatever is going on right now seems to be just greys artificially lowering prices because they're all dumping at once. until these watches are available at ADs again like in 2017 it's hard to imagine we see normal discounts for long. also the watch market seems to lag a lot so at this rate it looks like availability could get a lot better some time mid next year, but if we do get to that point next year and stocks/other markets start rebounding then it's anyones guess as to what happens again. these watches could just fly right back up

Why do they “have to meet in the middle”? There is no reason that the equilibrium for the watch market is equidistant b/w grey and MODA prices. In fact, I’d say MODA is a bellwether for today’s market value. Why? Because MODA (along with other dealer chats) are precisely how greys source their product and identify offer prices to would-be sellers. Look at the CRM videos for example - whenever someone offers a watch, they go to the dealer chats to see at what price/if they’ll buy.

The fact that MODA isn’t well-known/is niche is a moot point. What matters is that dealers are buying at these prices and applying a spread. Therefore, MODA/dealer chats are the most reliable indicator of market prices (also more liquid/active - good luck trying to find out what a grey actually sells for, they’re often looking for one sucker to buy high, e.g., greater fool theory).

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Why do they “have to meet in the middle”? There is no reason that the equilibrium for the watch market is equidistant b/w grey and MODA prices. In fact, I’d say MODA is a bellwether for today’s market value. Why? Because MODA (along with other dealer chats) are precisely how greys source their product and identify offer prices to would-be sellers. Look at the CRM videos for example - whenever someone offers a watch, they go to the dealer chats to see at what price/if they’ll buy.

The fact that MODA isn’t well-known/is niche is a moot point. What matters is that dealers are buying at these prices and applying a spread. Therefore, MODA/dealer chats are the most reliable indicator of market prices (also more liquid/active - good luck trying to find out what a grey actually sells for, they’re often looking for one sucker to buy high, e.g., greater fool theory).

i get it but the reason no one wants to buy is because all these greys were hoarding and are now dumping. it's not indicative of the situation at ADs getting better yet. in 2016 almost everything sold at a discount at greys which is the reason you had cases full at ADs. today it varies based on market but a lot of markets are still unchanged while grey prices suggest that we're back in 2018. it's also probably because client facing greys are still demanding high premiums but my point was just if so many watches are cheap on moda you would expect people to flood over there to buy them instead of still waiting for ADs, which is why i mentioned it's a niche specifically for greys. if chrono24/bobs/major greys showed the same prices as are found on moda then i think we'd see everything slowly go back to 2017/2018 levels