The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Old 2 January 2019, 12:26 AM   #1
sdh1980
"TRF" Member
 
sdh1980's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: London
Watch: 116500 LN
Posts: 361
5711 in a bubble or the new norm?

Hi all

I’ve decided to buy a white dial 5711 as my first Patek and also accepted that I’ll need to buy on the grey market

As we all know, the prices have sky rocketed in the last year in particular. Do you guys think this is the new normal for this model or do you feel they will come down slightly again. They are currently between £35-40k upward in the UK

Watchfinder has even been advertising 5711’s for more than 5712’s

Thanks in advance
__________________
Instagram - SDH1980
sdh1980 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:32 AM   #2
danestaff
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: united kingdom
Watch: 5968a
Posts: 1,027
congrats on your choice if you can find 1

watchfinder can ask what they want but they have had 4 of them sitting there for months, so make them an offer

but there is another thread on the go called THE MINSKY MOMENT, u might wanna take a look
danestaff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:35 AM   #3
The Argonaut
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: VA
Watch: GMT Master 16750
Posts: 1,373
I think prices have topped out. However, there's a reason its called a bubble. You could wait six months and see a drop or increase. If you are planning on keeping it, it doesn't matter what you pay.
The Argonaut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:42 AM   #4
rolexpatek363
"TRF" Member
 
rolexpatek363's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,610
I'm predicting a further doubling in price over the next 18 months.

It's just a bit of fun.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:47 AM   #5
tyler1980
"TRF" Member
 
tyler1980's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Houston
Posts: 17,622
its a very nice watch.... at retail or even at the new +20% retail you can sort of justify it.

I would never want it that bad to pay secondary prices. I just don't think its that awesome.
__________________
Instagram: tyler.watches
current collection: Patek 5164A, Patek 5524G, Rolex Platinum Daytona 116506, Rolex Sea Dweller 43 126600, Rolex GMT II 116710LN, AP 15400ST (silver), Panerai 913, Omega Speedmaster moonwatch, Tudor Black Bay (Harrods Edition)
tyler1980 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 01:48 AM   #6
brandrea
2024 Pledge Member
 
brandrea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 73,115
Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler1980 View Post
its a very nice watch.... at retail or even at the new +20% retail you can sort of justify it.

I would never want it that bad to pay secondary prices. I just don't think its that awesome.
I have to agree.

I’m not in the market as it’s out of my price range, but I just don’t see the value at gray prices. The same can be said for many of the SS Rolex models
brandrea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 02:06 AM   #7
tyler1980
"TRF" Member
 
tyler1980's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Houston
Posts: 17,622
Quote:
Originally Posted by brandrea View Post
I have to agree.

I’m not in the market as it’s out of my price range, but I just don’t see the value at gray prices. The same can be said for many of the SS Rolex models
You have the BLRO so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe I would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again I would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. On your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.
__________________
Instagram: tyler.watches
current collection: Patek 5164A, Patek 5524G, Rolex Platinum Daytona 116506, Rolex Sea Dweller 43 126600, Rolex GMT II 116710LN, AP 15400ST (silver), Panerai 913, Omega Speedmaster moonwatch, Tudor Black Bay (Harrods Edition)
tyler1980 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 12:49 AM   #8
s.m.b.
"TRF" Member
 
s.m.b.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: the Far West
Posts: 1,282
Sorry, but If you're considering dropping $45,000 on a 5711, the price coming down a bit can't matter all that much. If you are ready to own the watch, I say buy it now! The bottom of the gray market is unlikely to fall out over the next year. Personally, I wouldn't pay over MSRP.

THE MINSKY MOMENT thread will reveal none of us know jack about what the future holds.
__________________
Rolex & Patek Philippe
s.m.b. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 01:33 AM   #9
Fat_ninja
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
I agree with them. ^. We dont know jack and i wouldnt pay above retail
Fat_ninja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 01:46 AM   #10
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
all this talk of bubbles = we are in midst of slow bursting bubble, where some things can still spike and yet the overall trend is bust off an ultra-synthetic boom.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 02:53 AM   #11
rolexpatek363
"TRF" Member
 
rolexpatek363's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,610
Quote:
Originally Posted by KetaPatek View Post
all this talk of bubbles = we are in midst of slow bursting bubble, where some things can still spike and yet the overall trend is bust off an ultra-synthetic boom.
You seem very certain about this, but how are you so certain? I freely admit I'm guessing about the future, but my guess is a "fun" guess. It would be so funny if the prices kept on going up.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 03:40 AM   #12
Pratfall
"TRF" Member
 
Pratfall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Salt Lake City
Posts: 58
Bubble, I'd guess, and here's why. When I was researching steel sport watches ten years ago, I encountered a lot of watch nerds who said the Nautilus was just an overpriced Royal Oak wannabe. Royal Oak -- or even better, Royal Oak jumbo -- or go home. And it was much harder to find a jumbo than Nautilus at the time, at least in my neck of the woods

I liked the 5711 and bought one anyway (back when you could still find them behind dealer glass), but felt like I was going against conventional wisdom by doing so, and that's obviously since changed. But the baseline was "meh" for decades and things will ultimately regress to the mean.

The problem is when they will regress to the mean is unknowable. I feel your pain a bit because I want an aquanaut but mid twenties for one is nauseatingly expensive for what you get.
Pratfall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 05:07 AM   #13
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
You seem very certain about this, but how are you so certain? I freely admit I'm guessing about the future, but my guess is a "fun" guess. It would be so funny if the prices kept on going up.
looking at biz cycles, debt, bonds, real estate, over 20 trill in coordinated global QE [not counting shadow QE] since 09, and the current QT unwind, NIRP/ZIRP, hiking rates for now, insane and unprecedented corp buybacks, etc etc etc - what the central planners have done off of their last GFC bubble is insane. all ponzi schemes eventually end. i am certainly not certain of exact date, but we are surely approaching the end of this nonsense.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 05:13 AM   #14
rolexpatek363
"TRF" Member
 
rolexpatek363's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,610
Quote:
Originally Posted by KetaPatek View Post
looking at biz cycles, debt, bonds, real estate, over 20 trill in coordinated global QE [not counting shadow QE] and the current QT tendencies, NIRP/ZIRP, hiking rates for now, insane and unprecedented corp buybacks, etc etc etc - what the central planners have done off of their last GFC bubble is insane. all ponzi schemes eventually end. i am certainly not certain of exact date, but we are surely approaching the end of this nonsense.
No-one knows for sure, though, do they?

If you really knew what was about to happen in the markets, you wouldn't be spending any time on the forum. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that no-one actually knows, and this is all speculation.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 05:15 AM   #15
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
No-one knows for sure, though, do they?

If you really knew what was about to happen in the markets, you wouldn't be spending any time on the forum. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that no-one actually knows, and this is all speculation.
there is a difference between speculation and data-driven projections, no?

and what does being on a forum have to do w/ upcoming crash? strange...

[edit: you do realize that there were people that saw the last bubble a mile away and made huge bets that were experiencing major convexity up to the point they paid off hugely? some ppl see what is really happening and they get mocked by those that can't see or won't see what is brewing, thinking that happy days will never end and that this time really is different.]
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 01:59 AM   #16
Rsdecker971
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Real Name: Randolph
Location: Off beaten path
Posts: 118
40k GBP is too much for a 5711a IMO.
Rsdecker971 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 02:19 AM   #17
Iflylo
"TRF" Member
 
Iflylo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 384
I think PP steel nautilus queued with the Rolex steel Daytona. I remember when Grays were offering BNIB Daytona's at 17 to 18k. They are now offering at 21 to 22k.
Low production=high desirability.
I remember reading threads, "crazy to pay over msrp" back then.
As s.m.b. stated above, I'm paraphrasing, "if your gonna spend that much on a watch, does it really matter".
__________________
"Walking's easy when the road is flat, the Good Lord gave us Mountains so we could learn how to Climb" Lonestar.
Iflylo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 04:10 AM   #18
AK797
2024 Pledge Member
 
AK797's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Real Name: Neil
Location: UK
Watch: ing ships roll in
Posts: 59,066
What I've learned from Momentum markets is to never call a top, that's just gambling and far more money is lost selling early than just after a crash. However prices in a watch market can't really crash they will only slowly be lowered by greys as the market really moves consistently against them and they are forced to accept the happy days are over, so it's not a bubble but more like a balloon that slowly deflates, and thus there will be more insulation if you do end up buying near a top and you will have time to sell if you have to. Having said that the premiums now seem mighty high and I could not justify buying at these levels.
AK797 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 04:35 AM   #19
wisguy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,406
OP, if you want it and can afford it, go for it. Unless you plan to sell it shortly you shouldn't worry about it.

People have different opinions, people not willing to pay over MSRP are content waiting in line or never owning the watch altogether. Sounds like you're not on that camp which is ok too.

No right answer here, it's a personal choice.
__________________
5230G / 5146G / 124060 / BB58 / '59 Constellation
wisguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 04:35 AM   #20
Sam Philip
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 4,345
Grey market prices for the 5711 seem to have plateaued and as mentioned above WF has 4 of them sitting there for some time.

5711 is a very nice watch but to me not worth the current grey market price. You can get a Patek with a complication for that price.
Sam Philip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 04:47 AM   #21
vlps
"TRF" Member
 
vlps's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 371
theyve been sitting at high 40s/low 50s for awhile on chrono24. id wait for sihh new releases and peoples attention diverting to new watches to start the year, that could be the catalyst to cause people to start listing at 45 and then lower 40s
vlps is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 04:47 AM   #22
wisguy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,406
Reality is nobody knows, if you had posted a question here 18 months ago about where the prices would go, I think very few would have predicted they would go to $50k...

In a world where Apollo XXIII Snoopy Speedmasters are selling for $25k...
__________________
5230G / 5146G / 124060 / BB58 / '59 Constellation
wisguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 05:47 AM   #23
Donjo
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 169
I never liked the Aquanaut until it became hard to obtain. For some reason, I've started to want one. I have however always liked the Nautilus line.
Donjo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 06:45 AM   #24
soundserious
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: usofmfa
Posts: 3,157
Don’t worry too much about bubbles and MSRP and premiums. Everybody pays market price one way or another. If you have the means then buy it now. You don’t want to end up like the guy waiting for 2 years and hoping for something to happen in two more. For what? A heart attack?
__________________
Instagram: soundsoserious
soundserious is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 02:27 PM   #25
wisguy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,406
Quote:
Originally Posted by soundserious View Post
Don’t worry too much about bubbles and MSRP and premiums. Everybody pays market price one way or another. If you have the means then buy it now. You don’t want to end up like the guy waiting for 2 years and hoping for something to happen in two more. For what? A heart attack?
Amen
__________________
5230G / 5146G / 124060 / BB58 / '59 Constellation
wisguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:07 AM   #26
Bearxj86
"TRF" Member
 
Bearxj86's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: 3970
Posts: 3,793
Breaking Down Hip-Hop's Love For Patek Philippe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KEsmOmGQLU

https://genius.com/discussions/30149...patek-philippe

https://pitchfork.com/levels/objecti...atek-philippe/
Bearxj86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:29 AM   #27
KetaPatek
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
i like the Gucci Mane, Future and Lil Yachty tracks.
KetaPatek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:11 AM   #28
turborolex
"TRF" Member
 
turborolex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Real Name: H.
Location: USA
Posts: 564
The simple way to make up your mind: If you (or anyone) can afford it and really want it and don’t want to wait to get it at MSRP, get it now and enjoy it!

Keeping in mind that if the “bubble” bursts, you’ll lose a few grand if and when you decide to sell it.

But if someone is willing to pay $45,000 for a $30,000 watch from the get go, then I don’t believe losing a few thousand dollars on a watch you wear and enjoy NOW will really break your bank. You may not be happy about the loss, but it will not hit you hard financially

I say the above putting aside whatever anyone believes about paying over MSRP for anything and whether or not you believe watches are a good investment.

Also, ignoring FOMO and possible buyers remorse when the honeymoon is over.

The more complex way to decide is to add what I ignored and disregarded back into the mix...then it becomes a tougher decision.

That’s how I would make up my mind.





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
current collection: Patek 5712, Patek 5726 (white), Patek 5990, Patek 5524G, Rolex 116500 (white & black), AP 26331ST (Blue).
turborolex is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 07:52 AM   #29
RHIII
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Real Name: Roger
Location: ...
Watch: AP/Rolex/PP
Posts: 6,309
It’s a great watch - and I love 5711s — but I have to agree with Tyler — I can’t remember ever wanting something bad enough to pay 20% plus above retail—-

If I were looking right now for that reference - I’d hang back a bit and see what happens in 1Q ‘19.

Just my .02


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RHIII is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 January 2019, 08:03 AM   #30
GoingPlaces
"TRF" Member
 
GoingPlaces's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 5,336
Not going up anytime soon. Perhaps a "softening" but certainly not a significant drop.
GoingPlaces is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

Asset Appeal

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.