Talking Stocks 2.0

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by LA-RealEstateAgent

It's also important to differentiate between long term buys and short term buys.

Short Term Apple is currently at $315 and will go up a few % in the upcoming week.

Long term, I truly believe Boeing will bounce back big. I purchased it at $113 and got tempted to sell when it rose to the $140 mark but decided to keep it for a few months and see how this rides out.

I also really like Las Vegas Sands

I held BA for years. I sold last year because I thought that they were not forthcoming about 737 Max problems. But their only competitor is Airbus. I expect that it will be back, but who knows. Bigger companies have gone bust. I am thinking about putting a toe in, but I usually favor companies where things are going well.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I don't know that I necessarily agree.

The extra $600 of unemployment has been a boon for many (though it does go away in July), and now we're seeing people not wanting to go back to work because of the additional income. That extra money is being spent via credit cards on online shopping, which Nike is strong in.

Yes, there are a lot unemployed - but for those that are still employed, they've been sitting back ready to spend. For example, stores just opened up in Las Vegas recently, and I have friends spending an exorbitant amount of money shopping for the first time in a long while.

Long story short, I think companies like V and MA continue to go up from here.

And I agree with you on that part, but that money is going to stop coming for the unemployed. The other big ticket item people put on their credit card is travel, and I am sure that will be scaled back greatly this year. Business travel will be another place where they will lose money as we move to teleconferences. While a few people might go out and make a few big purchases following lockdown, that will be a one/two time jump, not sustained spending and growth.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bryan13

And I agree with you on that part, but that money is going to stop coming for the unemployed. The other big ticket item people put on their credit card is travel, and I am sure that will be scaled back greatly this year. Business travel will be another place where they will lose money as we move to teleconferences. While a few people might go out and make a few big purchases following lockdown, that will be a one/two time jump, not sustained spending and growth.

Valid point on the business travel. That's going to be a big hit - and will probably go away for good, in many cases.

[beshannon]

Nervous traders this morning ahead of the weekend and a lot of info to be released

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-friday-052920

I took out my position in AVGO yesterday as it had clawed back to even and the story/dividend no longer are compelling to me

I need to do some further rebalancing as several positions have grown too large as a percentage of my portfolio

I am looking for other dividend payers that have become value like IP, GILD, LYB, CE and T

I am also scanning this article for things I already do not own but might want to add in small positions

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...to-run-forever

[JParm]

Planning on sitting on the sidelines today (planning and doing can sometimes be so far from one another)....though, I do want to RTX and FDX on any large dips.

Also keeping a close eye on NKE and DIS. They may have run up a bit too fast, but these are very long-term holds so I'm looking to add there as well.

I'm pretty heavy on tech, so not really looking to add to positions there.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Planning on sitting on the sidelines today (planning and doing can sometimes be so far from one another)....though, I do want to RTX and FDX on any large dips.

Also keeping a close eye on NKE and DIS. They may have run up a bit too fast, but these are very long-term holds so I'm looking to add there as well.

I'm pretty heavy on tech, so not really looking to add to positions there.

Agreed, and I am not a doom and gloom kind of person but I do analyze everything I read and try to fit it into my plan.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...ior-2020-05-28

I have been repeating since February that the market was reaching a top, at least in the short term. While the world economy has been dramatically slowed, the underlying fundamentals still have not changed.

Keep your stops tight and protect your gains. I would rather miss the last 5% on the upside rather than waiting for the bottom 5% to be put in.

[JParm]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/29/asia/...ntl/index.html

Couple today's events leading into the weekend with news like this from South Korea to re-close schools:

"South Korea has been held up as a model of how to limit the spread of the coronavirus without a widespread lockdown, thanks to its rigorous testing, contact tracing and quarantine program.

Its struggle to prevent new outbreaks of the disease despite these stringent measures highlight the difficulties other nations can expect to face as they ease lockdown restrictions."

[RyanO]

I booked some profits yesterday, really didn't like how some of my positions were trading coupled with the concern that we have run up so far so fast.

At least on the day, the timing was good, as the selling certainly accelerated into the close, which was the worst price action we've had in some time.

If we get a pullback, I'll be looking to re enter. I'd also like to add Disney, but that has run away from me at least for now.

Going to put RTX on my radar for a potential pullback.

I agree things seem toppy, and the news coming out of South Korea is certainly not encouraging.

[Uggi]

I'm definitely not buying at these prices on the run into a weekend.
Quite a few of my positions in BARC, LLOY, NCLH, STOR and GOOG were closed yesterday but I don't see anything to buy with the gains I've banked there.
I'm sitting and watching. On my target list are PSN, FDX, AAPL and STOR again. Maybe DIS but only if it comes down a lot.
Popcorn time for me today.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I booked some profits yesterday, really didn't like how some of my positions were trading coupled with the concern that we have run up so far so fast.

At least on the day, the timing was good, as the selling certainly accelerated into the close, which was the worst price action we've had in some time.

If we get a pullback, I'll be looking to re enter. I'd also like to add Disney, but that has run away from me at least for now.

Going to put RTX on my radar for a potential pullback.

I agree things seem toppy, and the news coming out of South Korea is certainly not encouraging.

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm definitely not buying at these prices on the run into a weekend.
Quite a few of my positions in BARC, LLOY, NCLH, STOR and GOOG were closed yesterday but I don't see anything to buy with the gains I've banked there.
I'm sitting and watching. On my target list are PSN, FDX, AAPL and STOR again. Maybe DIS but only if it comes down a lot.
Popcorn time for me today.

DIS ideal target for me is $100, though I could see myself jumping in around 105-110 on a realistic level.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm definitely not buying at these prices on the run into a weekend.
Quite a few of my positions in BARC, LLOY, NCLH, STOR and GOOG were closed yesterday but I don't see anything to buy with the gains I've banked there.
I'm sitting and watching. On my target list are PSN, FDX, AAPL and STOR again. Maybe DIS but only if it comes down a lot.
Popcorn time for me today.

Agreed

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

DIS ideal target for me is $100, though I could see myself jumping in around 105-110 on a realistic level.

DIS is one I would like to be back in just like BA

I cannot get a sense of clarity for future business and the stocks are both trading on hope for a quick recovery.

Hope has never been a viable investment strategy

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

DIS ideal target for me is $100, though I could see myself jumping in around 105-110 on a realistic level.

That's about where my comfort level is, too.

Found this interesting though so thought I'd share. Released yesterday 5/28

Imperial Capital downgrades DIS to Underperform from In-line and lowers their tgt to $105 from $107. Analyst David Miller said, "We are cutting our rating on Disney to Underperform from In-Line and lowering our target price to $105, from a previous target of $107. With DIS shares rising 21.2% over the last four weeks, we think that based on our experience, the stock has risen too far too fast and the performance is due simply to excitement around the prospects of the domestic theme parks re-opening, for which DIS submitted a plan to Orange County (Florida) government officials just yesterday. The stock also saw a notable leg higher on 5/15/20 on the official re-opening of 'Disney Springs' in Florida, which is a small shopping complex and immaterial to the income statement. As such, we are advising that investors take profits, as Disney now looks like a name that should be "traded," rather than "owned," at least for now."

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed



DIS is one I would like to be back in just like BA

I cannot get a sense of clarity for future business and the stocks are both trading on hope for a quick recovery.

Hope has never been a viable investment strategy

I'd also like to re-enter BA, but I just don't see it getting back down to the level that I feel comfortable adding at (also near the $100 point).

When I compare DIS to BA, I just see too many unknowns with Boeing, whereas I do see Disney coming back in the next year or two. I also like Disney's diversification, even if most of the revenue comes through the parks.

HON is another one that I'd like to get back to as well.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

That's about where my comfort level is, too.

Found this interesting though so thought I'd share. Released yesterday 5/28

Imperial Capital downgrades DIS to Underperform from In-line and lowers their tgt to $105 from $107. Analyst David Miller said, "We are cutting our rating on Disney to Underperform from In-Line and lowering our target price to $105, from a previous target of $107. With DIS shares rising 21.2% over the last four weeks, we think that based on our experience, the stock has risen too far too fast and the performance is due simply to excitement around the prospects of the domestic theme parks re-opening, for which DIS submitted a plan to Orange County (Florida) government officials just yesterday. The stock also saw a notable leg higher on 5/15/20 on the official re-opening of 'Disney Springs' in Florida, which is a small shopping complex and immaterial to the income statement. As such, we are advising that investors take profits, as Disney now looks like a name that should be "traded," rather than "owned," at least for now."

Caveat that with JP Morgan, who kept their overweight target for DIS at $135, I believe.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'd also like to re-enter BA, but I just don't see it getting back down to the level that I feel comfortable adding at (also near the $100 point).

When I compare DIS to BA, I just see too many unknowns with Boeing, whereas I do see Disney coming back in the next year or two. I also like Disney's diversification, even if most of the revenue comes through the parks.

HON is another one that I'd like to get back to as well.

I am watching HON as well, I already own MMM.

[gnuyork]

Dang what happened to Big Lots this morning... news came up roses, Open was OK, but then it just dropped.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Caveat that with JP Morgan, who kept their overweight target for DIS at $135, I believe.

Good to know.

[77T]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Dang what happened to Big Lots this morning... news came up roses, Open was OK, but then it just dropped.

You prolly saw headline of “EARNINGS PER SHARE OF $1.26 - INCREASED 37%”

If you read the full report, a big drop in 2Q EPS compared to 1Q (to $0.65 to $0.80).

That’s only marginally better than last year’s $0.53 for 2019 2Q EPS.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by 77T

You prolly saw headline of “EARNINGS PER SHARE OF $1.26 - INCREASED 37%”

If you read the full report, a big drop in 2Q EPS compared to 1Q (to $0.65 to $0.80).

That’s only marginally better than last year’s $0.53 for 2019 2Q EPS.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Yes, but had a strong start this morning, then boom.

[logo]

Got burned hard with CGC this morning. Interesting company with loads of cash in a sector that hasn’t really taken off yet, but their former management team was just tossing money into a fire. Was expecting better today, but it sounds like new management (all from Constellation Brands) has a real plan to move their business forward. Will have to wait till next quarter to see their progress I guess.

[77T]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Yes, but had a strong start this morning, then boom.

Yes, what time did they release this AM?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Yes, but had a strong start this morning, then boom.

this usually happens with the overnight traders trying to front run the earnings without hearing the conference call

When the news is not what they thought or they have skimmed enough they dump the stock.

Just one of the reasons I never buy a stock the day earnings are announced

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by beshannon

this usually happens with the overnight traders trying to front run the earnings without hearing the conference call

When the news is not what they thought or they have skimmed enough they dump the stock.

Just one of the reasons I never buy a stock the day earnings are announced

Makes sense. Thanks.

[beshannon]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...lready-started

Protect your gains especially in the crowded trades

I already took off half my AMZN, sold my FB and have not chased NVDA

I am keeping AAPL, MSFT and half of my AMZN. I have no interest in GOOGL

[Frakis]

Thank you all who have provided useful information on this thread. I also sold many positions today to protect my gains.

I don’t understand how the market has trended up so quickly so fast. In my opinion, I believe the market cannot sustain this upward trend with all the negative news around the world.

[RyanO]

Volatility is back.

[pearson1995]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...lready-started

Protect your gains especially in the crowded trades

I already took off half my AMZN, sold my FB and have not chased NVDA

I am keeping AAPL, MSFT and half of my AMZN. I have no interest in GOOGL

Can I ask why you have no interest in google?

[JParm]

Can't complain about the strong finish to the week here, especially with how most of us felt at the conclusion of yesterday.

FSLY and SE holding strong!

[scarlet knight]

The market seems to have little correlation to the actual economy. I find it hard to understand. I have been investing since 1987.

[Frakis]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

The market seems to have little correlation to the actual economy. I find it hard to understand. I have been investing since 1987.

My thoughts exactly. It doesn’t make sense. I cashed out, and will be waiting on the sidelines.