What are the greys waiting for?

[Diamondgal]

I’m new to the Rolex game, name on an “interest list” since September. I’ve been keeping a close eye on grey watch prices since then, specifically for OP 31 and Datejust 31. There are plenty of watches on Chrono 24 at prices 50% plus above retail. None of them have sold in that time. Surely at some point they’ll have to decrease?? (Well, one of them has dropped- from a ridiculous £10,500 to a slightly less ridiculous £8,500).

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

Surely at some point they’ll have to decrease??

Why?

Welcome to the forum

[Jack T]

Supposedly the list prices aren’t necessarily the final sale price; perhaps the gray sellers are hoping to get lucky on a few.

[brandrea]

Chrono has interesting prices. I believe their take is 6%, then you figure you could probably get another 10-15% off the price … purely guessing, I’ve never bought a watch using their platform.

[dwjez14]

They are going to try to ride those prices Thru end of year. Lot of grays will lose a bunch of money on in stock inventory not consigned. But they made a bunch in the last year also. The trick for a lot of them is the consignment model that has hit hard the last year. So they will not lose quite as much

[Mystro]

Watches are selling. The idea of established dealers being desperate is ludicrous and lives as social media fodder.

[amh]

OP, the watches you're seeking should be available close to MSRP either through an AD after a wait (eg. 6 months) or by following the 'sale' postings in this forum.

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Watches are selling. The idea of established dealers being desperate is ludicrous and lives as social media fodder.

They are, just not at the ultra inflated prices they once were. Luxury good pricing is in no mans land right now. The market doesn't have a bottom or a top and the speculators are gone. All thats left is consumers who have seen all time highs for pieces that are now down severely from those all time highs. Its a total buyers market at this point.

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

I’m new to the Rolex game, name on an “interest list” since September. I’ve been keeping a close eye on grey watch prices since then, specifically for OP 31 and Datejust 31. There are plenty of watches on Chrono 24 at prices 50% plus above retail. None of them have sold in that time. Surely at some point they’ll have to decrease?? (Well, one of them has dropped- from a ridiculous £10,500 to a slightly less ridiculous £8,500).

They'll drop their prices when they absolutely have to... and not a second before.

When they stop selling pieces at their current asking prices, and more importantly, when their cash-flow dries up, then that's when they'll drop their prices. Simply supply and demand.

The cash-flow is the most important piece. If a grey can just sit on stock and hope to ride out any market decreases, then they will for as long as they can. Lowering prices can otherwise be a self-fulfilling prophecy - one grey goes first and lowers their prices and sells more stock than the others. So other greys lower theirs as well, and so it spirals down. None of them (who have probably invested quite a lot in buying from flippers at reasonably inflated prices), want to see a downward price spiral, so they will hold out as long as their cashflow allows.

[Guppydriver]

31mm is not a very popular size. I think an AD could source you one relatively quickly. Just my opinion, but I think you should look at something a little bigger, particularly with a OP.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

They are, just not at the ultra inflated prices they once were. Luxury good pricing is in no mans land right now. The market doesn't have a bottom or a top and the speculators are gone. All thats left is consumers who have seen all time highs for pieces that are now down severely from those all time highs. Its a total buyers market at this point.

Definitely a buyers market. The prices are still way above msrp though. Who knows if they’ll come down lol


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[amh]

Originally Posted by Driver8

They'll drop their prices when they absolutely have to... and not a second before.

When they stop selling pieces at their current asking prices, and more importantly, when their cash-flow dries up, then that's when they'll drop their prices. Simply supply and demand.

The cash-flow is the most important piece. If a grey can just sit on stock and hope to ride out any market decreases, then they will for as long as they can. Lowering prices can otherwise be a self-fulfilling prophecy - one grey goes first and lowers their prices and sells more stock than the others. So other greys lower theirs as well, and so it spirals down. None of them (who have probably invested quite a lot in buying from flippers at reasonably inflated prices), want to see a downward price spiral, so they will hold out as long as their cashflow allows.

DavidSW must have plenty of cash in the bank - their prices are still in the stratosphere (ie. same as 12 months ago)

This example is a full $10k more than current lowest street price.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by amh

DavidSW must have plenty of cash in the bank - their prices are still in the stratosphere (ie. same as 12 months ago)

This example is a full $10k more than current lowest street price.

They range in price from 16k -23k on chrono depending on the year. 910 “listings” but that doesn’t mean there are actually 910 for sale

[Diamondgal]

Originally Posted by Guppydriver

31mm is not a very popular size. I think an AD could source you one relatively quickly. Just my opinion, but I think you should look at something a little bigger, particularly with a OP.

I have very tiny wrists! 28 is way too small but I found the 34 to be huge. I’m also “old” and not sure I can get away with the sporty look that the bigger sizes appear on women.

[Diamondgal]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why?

Welcome to the forum

Thank you 👋

[Diamondgal]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Chrono has interesting prices. I believe their take is 6%, then you figure you could probably get another 10-15% off the price … purely guessing, I’ve never bought a watch using their platform.

Worth making an offer, then?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

Thank you 👋

You are welcome but why do their prices have to decrease?

[Johnnyho87]

Originally Posted by brandrea

They range in price from 16k -23k on chrono depending on the year. 910 “listings” but that doesn’t mean there are actually 910 for sale

Also surprised he still accepts crypto as a form of payment as beat up as that 'asset' class has been.

[Diamondgal]

Originally Posted by beshannon

You are welcome but why do their prices have to decrease?

I just meant that the watches don’t appear to be getting snapped up and there are lots of them. I think someone has explained the process to me further up, essentially a game of “chicken” among the dealers!

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Definitely a buyers market. The prices are still way above msrp though. Who knows if they’ll come down lol

I think every piece with exception to few is at msrp with no tax right now. I offed my newer blusey a month ago and was getting solid offers of about 2k under msrp from pretty much everyone. I did sell my SD43 ( 2020 ) for under msrp.

[Scholar]

Originally Posted by amh

DavidSW must have plenty of cash in the bank - their prices are still in the stratosphere (ie. same as 12 months ago)

This example is a full $10k more than current lowest street price.

I saw an OP36 for sale at $20k the other day on the greys.

Then again, I read a post here by someone who spent $60k above retail for his watch so what can we even say?

[Guppydriver]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

I have very tiny wrists! 28 is way too small but I found the 34 to be huge. I’m also “old” and not sure I can get away with the sporty look that the bigger sizes appear on women.

Understood....


I bet a 34 would look better than you think and make the dial color pop, but the most important part is that you feel comfortable. I would honestly reach out to multiple AD's in your area and inquire about a 31.

Anecdotally, it seems even much more in demand models have been appearing regularly to those with limited to no buying history without an excessive wait. I bet your wait wouldn't be long and there is not reason to pay above retail for a 31mm watch other than you don't want to hassle with visiting AD's.

Whatever you do, I hope you decide to post pics of whatever you buy, I'd be excited to see your watch.

[jamie]

We haven’t experienced a repricing market since 2008. Sellers are always the last holdouts.

Cash talks. I just bought a G63 (another declining market) for u$20k under ask.

I’m hoping to replace the 5164 that I foolishly traded for a meteorite Pepsi last year. I certainly won’t be paying the advertised prices.

[Laostuh]

Originally Posted by Johnnyho87

Also surprised he still accepts crypto as a form of payment as beat up as that 'asset' class has been.

I believe all these greys only accepting crypto only take USDT which is at a 1:1 ratio to the dollar.

[Benzsiam]

OP 31 and Datejust 31 shouldn't be that hard to get it from the boutique/AD.

You should visit your local AD and express your interest on that two models. You might be able to get it from them with some little wait time.

[Chewbacca]

This is a Rolex forum. Paying more is the flex. Not the watch.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

I just meant that the watches don’t appear to be getting snapped up and there are lots of them. I think someone has explained the process to me further up, essentially a game of “chicken” among the dealers!

There are always lots of them, Rolex makes so many watches that they are not hard to get.

Perhaps the dealers are working on a different business model that does not require them to turn inventory rapidly. Many like to speculate on what others do, it is rarely correct or productive.

[herefortheattachment]

I worked at a large grey years ago. We had a network of dealers we worked with. Several dealers were totally ok making a mere $100 per flip back then - often making the $100 selling the watch to another dealer, not an end customer. One dealer “sourcing” a watch for a customer could go through 3-5 dealers in text channels or apps, each making $100, before making its way in front of the actual customer.

A few of these back door Rolex dealers were living with their parents. I’ll never forget when we couldn’t get a hold of one at 10:30 AM on a weekday morning because he was asleep (he was in the same time zone as us). Another time, it was 2 PM in the afternoon, and he couldn’t pick up the phone because he was playing a Call of Duty match!

The older ones with store fronts usually had fragile egos and did not understand basic business concepts like inventory turn, the cost of money, etc. The only thing they hated more than losing money on a watch was people knowing or thinking they lost money on a watch. Those sorts are going to keep their inventory on their sites and sell them out the back door at a loss. When times got tough, they’d delist the watch for a few days or weeks (and say “it sold” if asked about it), then a “new” one will reappear at a lower price. Will be interesting to see if we start seeing that in due time.

[kieselguhr]

I always wondered who could afford exorbitant preowned prices. Then I realized that the market changed long ago from end user oriented to intra-dealer prices. They wheel and deal, nickel and dime, each other scrambling to make margins at volume.

I would just wait at your AD or try a different one.

[Guppydriver]

Originally Posted by herefortheattachment

I worked at a large grey years ago. We had a network of dealers we worked with. Several dealers were totally ok making a mere $100 per flip back then - often making the $100 selling the watch to another dealer, not an end customer. One dealer “sourcing” a watch for a customer could go through 3-5 dealers in text channels or apps, each making $100, before making its way in front of the actual customer.

A few of these back door Rolex dealers were living with their parents. I’ll never forget when we couldn’t get a hold of one at 10:30 AM on a weekday morning because he was asleep (he was in the same time zone as us). Another time, it was 2 PM in the afternoon, and he couldn’t pick up the phone because he was playing a Call of Duty match!

The older ones with store fronts usually had fragile egos and did not understand basic business concepts like inventory turn, the cost of money, etc. The only thing they hated more than losing money on a watch was people knowing or thinking they lost money on a watch. Those sorts are going to keep their inventory on their sites and sell them out the back door at a loss. When times got tough, they’d delist the watch for a few days or weeks (and say “it sold” if asked about it), then a “new” one will reappear at a lower price. Will be interesting to see if we start seeing that in due time.

Informative post , I appreciate the insight.