What are the greys waiting for?

[pjaffe]

Originally Posted by amh

DavidSW must have plenty of cash in the bank - their prices are still in the stratosphere (ie. same as 12 months ago)

This example is a full $10k more than current lowest street price.

I continue to be dumbfounded how his business is profitable selling watches consistently 25-30% above market rate, but hey it’s working I guess.

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I continue to be dumbfounded how his business is profitable selling watches consistently 25-30% above market rate, but hey it’s working I guess.

One theory is that people are willing to pay more for his reputation and assurance? I'm not a customer but if the choice was Backpack Dealer at $100 and DSW at $120, I can understand why ppl would go with DSW

[shwingus]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

One theory is that people are willing to pay more for his reputation and assurance? I'm not a customer but if the choice was Backpack Dealer at $100 and DSW at $120, I can understand why ppl would go with DSW

Sure...but we're talking about a $10K difference not $20...And no its not backpack dealers, its legitimate grey dealers that are considerably cheaper than David.

In this instance he can keep his reputation or most likely keep the dream alive due to him also having bought at inflated prices earlier and trying not to get destroyed with current prices.

[pjaffe]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

One theory is that people are willing to pay more for his reputation and assurance? I'm not a customer but if the choice was Backpack Dealer at $100 and DSW at $120, I can understand why ppl would go with DSW

I totally get that and his reputation is rock solid, but I can’t justify paying literally thousands of dollars more just cause he’s a nice guy.

[CarlOver]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

I’m new to the Rolex game, name on an “interest list” since September. I’ve been keeping a close eye on grey watch prices since then, specifically for OP 31 and Datejust 31. There are plenty of watches on Chrono 24 at prices 50% plus above retail. None of them have sold in that time. Surely at some point they’ll have to decrease?? (Well, one of them has dropped- from a ridiculous £10,500 to a slightly less ridiculous £8,500).

Chrono is known to be full of bs. Plenty of offerings with Hail Mary pricing. If you bite they will find one for you. So many listings are from dealers that do not have watch in personal inventory.

If you see something you like, then make an offer. What do you have to lose?

[gerry100]

dont be afraid to negotiate

[bblewis]

The prices at DSW are a bit insulting at this point.

I did recently chat with a grey regarding a BLRO and he was pretty upfront that the market dropped so fast that their current prices are basically break even to what they acquired the watches for. So, they are holding for now and crossing fingers.

In the meantime, I’ll see what happens first. My AD comes through on the BLRO or I pick one up at my preferred price.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

I’m new to the Rolex game, name on an “interest list” since September. I’ve been keeping a close eye on grey watch prices since then, specifically for OP 31 and Datejust 31. There are plenty of watches on Chrono 24 at prices 50% plus above retail. None of them have sold in that time. Surely at some point they’ll have to decrease?? (Well, one of them has dropped- from a ridiculous £10,500 to a slightly less ridiculous £8,500).

That’s a dangerous game, and if one does it, the whole thing can collapse like a house of cards that it is. So reductions are happening very slowly, and very calculated, as there is a serious amount of money, depending upon the continued hype and fake scarcity of these time pieces.

[Trailboss516]

shwingus & pjaffe -

Ok, I'll admit my numbers weren't a great example. I haven't looked deeply at other dealer prices so I was going off an assumption

[Etschell]

many gray dealers just popped up in the last 3 years. they are inexperienced and dont understand the basics let alone inventory turnover ratio.

many are leveraged and will fail. so yes, prices will drop further. it isn't over.

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Etschell

many gray dealers just popped up in the last 3 years. they are inexperienced and dont understand the basics let alone inventory turnover ratio.

many are leveraged and will fail. so yes, prices will drop further. it isn't over.

It's only just started. I think grey will be well below msrp on everything next year. There is a ton of inventor thats going to flood the market at whatever someone is willing to pay.

All the new money speculators wont care about future values and branding when they just want to get liquid and disappear from this market segment all together.

[Shaggy Rogers]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Definitely a buyers market. The prices are still way above msrp though. Who knows if they’ll come down lol


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Going by your BLRO for sale thread they seem to still be coming down.

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by Shaggy Rogers

Going by your BLRO for sale thread they seem to still be coming down.

Started at 35, went to 16. Wonder what it actually sold for......

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

I’m new to the Rolex game, name on an “interest list” since September. I’ve been keeping a close eye on grey watch prices since then, specifically for OP 31 and Datejust 31. There are plenty of watches on Chrono 24 at prices 50% plus above retail. None of them have sold in that time. Surely at some point they’ll have to decrease?? (Well, one of them has dropped- from a ridiculous £10,500 to a slightly less ridiculous £8,500).

OP 31mm? Gettable at MSRP probably below, I’d think bc it’s an Un sought after watch


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[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Guppydriver

31mm is not a very popular size. I think an AD could source you one relatively quickly. Just my opinion, but I think you should look at something a little bigger, particularly with a OP.

This. My tiny tiny wife found this watch to be laughably small. Sold it for 36


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[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

I have very tiny wrists! 28 is way too small but I found the 34 to be huge. I’m also “old” and not sure I can get away with the sporty look that the bigger sizes appear on women.

In that case 31mm. But over time, I think it’ll be cray small. Good luck!


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[1William]

I believe with many of the Trusted Seller/Greys it is about inventory and turn. Depending on where they bought into a watch the numbers could be different in what they take. The market has been declining for months now and I assume that they, TS/Greys, have adjusted what they are buying watches for and in turn what they can take. Inventory that was purchased on the high side will either be sat on or has already been moved. I buy almost exclusively from DSW and while the price are slightly more on most regular pieces. ie. Rolex, he is very competitive on other brands. There is always a one off that many others will point to and that is legitimate but not reflective of the whole site. You can also call and discuss pricing for both your purchases and trades. If you are an established customer I have found that David works very well with me on most pieces. If he can or will not he just tells me so and we move on to something else, no hard feelings. It's not personal, just watches and having fun. The well established and capitalized Trusted Sellers are making money now just like they did when things were booming. Just not as much I would think and in a different way. The market will continue to shift and we may see prices even less than they are now. But the market will bounce at some point, the way it always does and we will be back off to the races with price increases. Nothing typically gets cheaper with time. I have always been in the school of thought that AD pricing, if you can get it, is great but if not pay what you think is fair, get your watch and move on. Just some of my thoughts.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Diamondgal

Worth making an offer, then?

It never hurts to make an offer that you are comfortable paying

Originally Posted by Johnnyho87

Also surprised he still accepts crypto as a form of payment as beat up as that 'asset' class has been.

I’m surprised at that too, considering how volatile it is.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by 1William

I believe with many of the Trusted Seller/Greys it is about inventory and turn. Depending on where they bought into a watch the numbers could be different in what they take. The market has been declining for months now and I assume that they, TS/Greys, have adjusted what they are buying watches for and in turn what they can take. Inventory that was purchased on the high side will either be sat on or has already been moved. I buy almost exclusively from DSW and while the price are slightly more on most regular pieces. ie. Rolex, he is very competitive on other brands. There is always a one off that many others will point to and that is legitimate but not reflective of the whole site. You can also call and discuss pricing for both your purchases and trades. If you are an established customer I have found that David works very well with me on most pieces. If he can or will not he just tells me so and we move on to something else, no hard feelings. It's not personal, just watches and having fun. The well established and capitalized Trusted Sellers are making money now just like they did when things were booming. Just not as much I would think and in a different way. The market will continue to shift and we may see prices even less than they are now. But the market will bounce at some point, the way it always does and we will be back off to the races with price increases. Nothing typically gets cheaper with time. I have always been in the school of thought that AD pricing, if you can get it, is great but if not pay what you think is fair, get your watch and move on. Just some of my thoughts.

That that is a mouthful. With which I agree!


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[mountainjogger]

Sellers that can afford to usually wait out demand slumps or lower their prices slowly.

Nothing new about this.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by herefortheattachment

I worked at a large grey years ago. We had a network of dealers we worked with. Several dealers were totally ok making a mere $100 per flip back then - often making the $100 selling the watch to another dealer, not an end customer. One dealer “sourcing” a watch for a customer could go through 3-5 dealers in text channels or apps, each making $100, before making its way in front of the actual customer.

A few of these back door Rolex dealers were living with their parents. I’ll never forget when we couldn’t get a hold of one at 10:30 AM on a weekday morning because he was asleep (he was in the same time zone as us). Another time, it was 2 PM in the afternoon, and he couldn’t pick up the phone because he was playing a Call of Duty match!

The older ones with store fronts usually had fragile egos and did not understand basic business concepts like inventory turn, the cost of money, etc. The only thing they hated more than losing money on a watch was people knowing or thinking they lost money on a watch. Those sorts are going to keep their inventory on their sites and sell them out the back door at a loss. When times got tough, they’d delist the watch for a few days or weeks (and say “it sold” if asked about it), then a “new” one will reappear at a lower price. Will be interesting to see if we start seeing that in due time.

I've also noticed a lot of the older dealers have fragile egos and become really indignant if you seem to know more than them or haggle too much.

Not sure how some of those old timers survive or even manage to run a business.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

That that is a mouthful. With which I agree!


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Same.

[AlabamaLawyer1988]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Same.

Concurring.

DM


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