Investment

[roh123]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Art is terrifying to me. I love Japanese woodblock art. It's currently very affordable because it is solidly out of fashion. Have you heard of Paul Jacoulet? He was absolutely huge post-WWII in the woodblock world. Apparently, Gen. MacArthur's wife was a big fan. His prints sold for tens of thousands, which in 1950s and 1960s dollars was a lot. I think you can buy nearly any of them now for less than $5k. Yet, they still have merit, still have everything going for them that they ever had, they're just out of fashion at the moment. I'm not rushing to buy them up.

Same with bubblebacks. I bought my first bubbleback because I fell in love with the way it looked. I mean, of course, I liked the way it looked ON ME. Others followed. It doesn't bother me that they are trending DOWN right now, I'm not looking to make a killing. As I said, by the time I'm ready to divest my holdings, I expect that 90% of the human race will not be wearing wristwatches. I'm in the process of getting rid of most of my 1960s and 1970s Heuer chronographs: I don't think those values will ever be as high again as they are right now and I don't wear them any more.

So, I'd agree, what happens in the watch world also happens in the art world. I suspect Warhol will not be huge in 100 years as ART, but the pieces may still trade at the established values.

I am way more worried about the sudden Heuer hype which will culminate with the Phillips auction this fall than I am with vintage Rolex. Rolex is still one of the strongest brands in the world and I doubt that will change any time soon. As long as they continue their strong sports models I feel quite certain that the vintage Rolex market will stay healthy. If demand dies for their sport watches I see your point but to me it's not very likely. The bubblebacks died more in a way like stamps. People had no use or interest for them as they were not very wearable. I don't see people replacing their watches with smart watches but if that is something to believe in then yes, then one should be worried. To me smart watches is a bigger threat to smart phones than to male jewelry where I would place luxury watches. Each to their own though.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by roh123

Still the red sub is probably one of the slow movers the last 5-10 years. They, the DRSD and the 1655 was the early hype watches who haven't moved much compared to gilts, Daytonas etc. A poor red sub wasn't much cheaper then that they are today. Still of course decent return but not really that great comparing with other pieces.

I'd rather compare todays vintage watch market with art. Then watches are still very cheap and for more people.

Red subs are getting cheap compared with everything else. A nice 5513 makes a wearer red 1680 look not so bad in comparison.

[springer]

Every time there is a correction, the non Rolex watches like, Heuer, Omega etc., are the first to go. I've seen it before and I'll see it again. Omegas are down... what, 25-30% from a year ago. I have no doubt that the Rolex crowd looking for something different drove the price up for many of the Omegas, Heuers and other brands. When the Rolex guys are done playing with the other brands, the buyers for the non Rolex watches will be more than happy.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by springer

Every time there is a correction, the non Rolex watches like, Heuer, Omega etc., are the first to go. I've seen it before and I'll see it again. Omegas are down... what, 25-30% from a year ago. I have no doubt that the Rolex crowd looking for something different drove the price up for many of the Omegas, Heuers and other brands. When the Rolex guys are done playing with the other brands, the buyers for the non Rolex watches will be more than happy.

Which Omega prices are down 25-30%? To me vintage Omega is hotter than ever if we don't get stuck on dress watches which aren't very hot for any brand right now. Can't say its my cup of tea but early Omegas are fetching high prices where I am.

[JP Chestnut]

Any non-terrible speedmaster LE seems crazy expensive now. I paid $3500 for my NOS Gemini 4 LE (the nice blue/white panda) a few years ago, and multiple worn examples have sold at twice that recently. The white/black panda is super expensive, and that snoopy glow in the dark one is just insane.

[Michael M.]

My advice has always been to buy what YOU like and to focus on condition as well as originality.

[springer]

Originally Posted by roh123

Which Omega prices are down 25-30%? To me vintage Omega is hotter than ever if we don't get stuck on dress watches which aren't very hot for any brand right now. Can't say its my cup of tea but early Omegas are fetching high prices where I am.

I talk to guys from all over the country, all the time. I here them whine about it in my conversations- about the prices being down. I am not an Omega guy so I really don't get into the minutia of these watches.

I just finished three watch shows the past couple of months. You don't have to agree, but I can say they weren't hot - the only thing hot was the weather!!!

That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Woody

How sad.......

Woodrow! "How sad"? How could you do me like this?? After all we've been thru!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by nuno116600

If you like watches, I think vinatge rolex's are good investments.

HO.

Originally Posted by Kingface66

If you have $10,000, and consider that a substantial amount of money, and with that money you could invest in equities, bonds, property, etc., but, instead, spend it on a 50 year-old timepiece that has been in increasing in market value for years now, you wouldn't at least consider that an investment? I can't help but regard those purchases as good investments.

!

Originally Posted by PVR

Not too many investments that have transportability, liquidity and appreciate 10% a year. So I am also on board with all purchases being investments.

Agreed, fellas! I'm not talking about day trading in Rolexes; rather, vintage rolex is a thoughtful, strategic way of transforming a passion into part of your asset portfolio.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JohnnyNoDate]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Agreed, fellas! I'm not talking about day trading in Rolexes; rather, vintage rolex is a thoughtful, strategic way of transforming a passion into part of your asset portfolio.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think you have to buy real smart (i.e.: price, quality, provenance) and also consider the risks associated with vintage watches as well (i.e.: service & repair costs, conservation & storage).

If you know the game it may be worth it to buy and hold and go long with it. You gotta really have a passion for it...

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by JohnnyNoDate

I think you have to buy real smart (i.e.: price, quality, provenance) and also consider the risks associated with vintage watches as well (i.e.: service & repair costs, conservation & storage).

If you know the game it may be worth it to buy and hold and go long with it. You gotta really have a passion for it...

Well said bro. Agree entirely.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[enhamhale]

Thanks everyone for all your thoughts on this post and views and have enjoyed the journey it has taken . I have took another plunge and bought a nice 1978 1680 with box and papers as I like the look of the all white mk 2 Matt dial as for investment I do agree with a lot that there is better ways to invest but for me I just want steady growth and enjoy the hobbie / obsession which will broberly keep growing 👍

[Gina Marie]

at their current growth rates most models will be out of reach of most everybody within a few years. At this point, pretty much everything has gone up from unloved flakes to desired big reds. When i see full set 1680 reds in the mid 20s i know i cannot afford one. I also know most others cannot either. I don't know if there will be a correction.....i do know that the prices do not seem to make sense....i know the arguments about finite supply, etc.....but more and more watches are "discovered" daily. Reminds me of oil hitting 100 back in the early/mid 2000's....remember when we saw peak production, growing usage, etc.....at the end of the day, should a worn 16710 be worth more than a new or nearly new 116610.....probably not....but they are which does not make sense. What is happening is that the prices are driving would be collectors elsewhere......kind of like high energy drove people to greater efficiency and non ice engines.....now with the alternatives firmly in place there is a ceiling on the price of energy. This will happen too with watches. Just wait for it....age old formula that repeats over and over. i think prices in 2012 were too cheap and have corrected fully but prices in 2017 are too much......so either they flatline for a while or drop to more reasonable levels. The problem is the FOMO phenom......you see a watch on IG and you buy it as fast as you can before someone else does.....but what if someone else is not buying...then prices flatline or stall. Only time will tell. However, all is irrelevant if you just buy what you love and use moderation.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

Any non-terrible speedmaster LE seems crazy expensive now. I paid $3500 for my NOS Gemini 4 LE (the nice blue/white panda) a few years ago, and multiple worn examples have sold at twice that recently. The white/black panda is super expensive, and that snoopy glow in the dark one is just insane.

My worst ever day buying watches....10 yrs ago I passed on BOTH that Omega Gemini AND a Kermit sub new from an AD and bought a regular speedy moon instead...

The concern with watches as investments are what will the millennial money be chasing (if they have any..lol)?? For collectibles to have value, they need buyers and like or not, those future buyers will be millennials...

If people do lose interest in watches (which I FIRMLY believe is causing a downturn in the standard watch market) the whole thing could go BUST...

Will millennials collect watches? Will they collect coins? Comic Books?

Sports Cards?

I can tell you they are NOT buying Stamps....and that hobby is dying.

Many millennials have never used a stamp. They have no connection to it any fashion. They don't know how to mail a letter with a "stamp"..

Will the same hold true to watches? Hipster money has floated the vintage boat and the fashion rags have helped promote the hobby, but this is all vapid and manufactured interest for fadish and trendy snobbery in that community...is it sustainable?

.

[tavv160]

Agreed on not buying a watch for investment, but buy what you like.

However, when moving that opinion aside and looking objectively at the market I feel that the Red Sub 1680 is the next one to appreciate. It is much wanted by collectors, yet hasn't increased to the same level as the 1675 and 5513. Those 2 references have been produced in much greater quantities and are now more or less at the same level as the Red Sub.

However, if I would be able to predict the future, my collection would be filled with vintage Daytonas and Pateks. Which unfortunately it is not.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by tavv160

Agreed on not buying a watch for investment, but buy what you like.

However, when moving that opinion aside and looking objectively at the market I feel that the Red Sub 1680 is the next one to appreciate. It is much wanted by collectors, yet hasn't increased to the same level as the 1675 and 5513. Those 2 references have been produced in much greater quantities and are now more or less at the same level as the Red Sub.

However, if I would be able to predict the future, my collection would be filled with vintage Daytonas and Pateks. Which unfortunately it is not.

Go back 7-10 years and the red sub was the only thing people wanted and they were overly expensive compared to much else.

[springer]

Originally Posted by roh123

Go back 7-10 years and the red sub was the only thing people wanted and they were overly expensive compared to much else.

Very true. In general terms, red Subs were around $10,000 10-years-ago and GMT 1675s were $3,000. This was one of the reasons why I started collecting GMTs - they were clearly undervalued at that time.

Nice, correct early 1970s "feet first" red Subs now sell for around $14,000 and nice, comparable GMT 1675s are $12,000 to $13,000. The gap from 10-years-ago was about 300% plus between the Subs and GMTs and now it is around $15 to 20% for comparable watches. My, how times have changed.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by springer

Very true. In general terms, red Subs were around $10,000 10-years-ago and GMT 1675s were $3,000. This was one of the reasons why I started collecting GMTs - they were clearly undervalued at that time.

Nice, correct early 1970s "feet first" red Subs now sell for around $14,000 and nice, comparable GMT 1675s are $12,000 to $13,000. The gap from 10-years-ago was about 300% plus between the Subs and GMTs and now it is around $15 to 20% for comparable watches. My, how times have changed.

Totally agree! Why didn't you warn me! I sold three really nice 1675s over the last 6-7 years and thought I was doing well at the time making about $1,000-$1,500 on each, selling them in the $5500-$6500 range. I'm such a dumba$$! Here's the one I miss the most!

[roh123]

Originally Posted by springer

Very true. In general terms, red Subs were around $10,000 10-years-ago and GMT 1675s were $3,000. This was one of the reasons why I started collecting GMTs - they were clearly undervalued at that time.

Nice, correct early 1970s "feet first" red Subs now sell for around $14,000 and nice, comparable GMT 1675s are $12,000 to $13,000. The gap from 10-years-ago was about 300% plus between the Subs and GMTs and now it is around $15 to 20% for comparable watches. My, how times have changed.

And the big change today is condition. Back then people bought references and pretty much any red 1680 were 10k. Today a perfect 5513/1675 from the same era could cost just about the same as a perfect red sub. It's just a matter of taste.

[16610v]

5-6k is not enough to buy a hot model like 5513, 1680 red, which are super hot model now for investment.