Pricing is out of control... real or...

[Andad]

It's a bit like paying a ridiculous price at an auction for something you really want and then realising that you only paid $10 more than the previous high bid.

[WEST HAM ROLEX]

In and around London I'm seeing example -
LV at 7.5k Sub No Date 6k, GMT LN at 6.5k

Didn't realize in the States they had the same issue

[Ruud Van Driver]

Originally Posted by SubCfan

Bought a pre owned BLNR two weeks ago from AD box/papers for $7500

Wow, I sold my three-year old one to a dealer here in Singapore for more than that.

[Ruud Van Driver]

Originally Posted by WEST HAM ROLEX

In and around London I'm seeing example -
LV at 7.5k Sub No Date 6k, GMT LN at 6.5k

Didn't realize in the States they had the same issue

Presumably those prices are English pounds and Welsh euros?

[Mick P]

Chaps

There is only one group of people to blame for high prices and that is mug buyers who are mad enough to pay the inflated price.

All you got to do is walk away and the prices will slide, but the buying public never learn and are their own worse enemies.

Regards

Mick

[VicLeChic]

I've also observed the trend in the last 18 months. My goal has always been to buy new at xx% off RRP depending on the resale value of the watch. With regards to preowned, I'm still to find a piece priced reasonably lower than its BNIB equivalent. That's the reason why I haven't bought preowned yet.

[1William]

The prices on the Subs and the BLNR have increased. The prices on the Basel 17 releases have been what they typically are when a new hot model has been released. Depending on the watch, the AD's that I deal with are now very competitive with the Trusted Sellers. The watch sells are driving the prices and the TS are just getting what they can.

[AK797]

It's just supply and demand, supply is falling, off a cliff in many countries, and demand remains strong and maybe even getting stronger due the rising resale.

[hitman23]

madness

[enjoythemusic]

Agree it is supply <=> demand. With some models, such as the SS SkyD, pricing did seem a bit low for SS as compared to their pricing of PM models imho. Ceramic Daytona seem a bit optimistic imho, yet they are selling quite well it seems.

Overall, it appears ADs are getting far less stock than they can sell.

[tgibbs]

Originally Posted by SubCfan

Bought a pre owned BLNR two weeks ago from AD box/papers for $7500

I'm shocked. Thats a VERY good price.

[watchwatcher]

Well...people are going to get what they can get out of a watch sale. It's the same for real estate, cars, or anything else. Sometimes we shake our heads and think, "who would ever pay that?" and then someone comes along and does. Mick is right, sometimes we're our own worst enemies.

[HogwldFLTR]

Originally Posted by Anestheticsaregood

Is the actual selling prices much lower? For example I'm looking at govberg pre owned and they have a 16610LV asking 13,950. They have a BLNR asking $1k about retail. There is lots of talk of the current LV being sold at a premium... not to mention the asking prices for SS sky dwellers... or the prices of five digit Pepsi/coke GMT. What's going on? I can maybe understand the pieces no longer in production in great condition having a premium but a used BLNR asking over list? Does govberg have to pay for that new office they opened and are they getting "creative" with these prices or are these starting points?
Same goes for Sky D. Asking price is around 21k... are they actually moving/going to move?!

Market just seems crazy right now! What is driving these prices on a good that isn't necessarily "rare"
And is it going to have a hard correction a la Porsche 911R after the release of GT3 with touring package?

Whether paying $6K or $16K for a watch, it's all out of control imho.

[Loevhagen]

Vintage marked is drying up for decent examples. A lot of shitty vintage watches are now having crazy prices - and my take is that people are tired of the "patinated" versions and just want some 5-digit versions instead - and these are less risky to buy - taking spareparts into account.

A 16610LV with box and papers are now in the Red Sub (w/o b&p) territory - and I can understand that.

[rossi46]

Originally Posted by TerranceClothtowel

I feel like 6 months ago brand new 114060s were offered by trusted sellers for $6500-6750 and now I see some at full MSRP or even $50 higher than retail.

I came here to post the exact same thing. "Trusted Seller" pricing has become absurd. I bought my 114060 <6 months ago at $1k below retail and now the going rate is full retail. So in such a short time period the market has moved that much?!

Really turns me off to the whole watch world. I think I'm done for a while...

[uansari1]

Originally Posted by mtgjr

What y'all are observing is all very logical. The Dow and S&P indices are making all-time highs.....stands to reason prices for luxury goods are following suit.

Really? So when the stock market corrects (and it will any moment), will prices of luxury watches come back to earth?

Originally Posted by rossi46

I came here to post the exact same thing. "Trusted Seller" pricing has become absurd. I bought my 114060 <6 months ago at $1k below retail and now the going rate is full retail. So in such a short time period the market has moved that much?!

Really turns me off to the whole watch world. I think I'm done for a while...

I think I'm in agreement. There are a couple of Trusted Sellers whose prices are still ok, but a few have noticeably bumped their prices in recent months. There's no reason a 14060 should cost 20%+ more today than it did 6-9 months ago. We're talking second hand, no currency impact, and SubNDs are a dime a dozen.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by uansari1

Really? So when the stock market corrects (and it will any moment), will prices of luxury watches come back to earth?

Perhaps the problem is that item A is priced in constantly devaluating B. Add in supply versus demand factors and....

Rolex as priced in ________ (always devaluating currency). This is why diverting as much currency loan as far out at very low interest rate might make sense as currency 20 years from now has maybe only 1/2 buying power / value of today (2% annual 'inflation' compounded). And that 2% is central bank scheme, as we know real inflation (currency devaluation) tends to run higher.

As for stock market, its an overvalued bubble with PE ratios of insanity. Trillions in worldwide central bank intervention greatly helps. Imho.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by uansari1

Govberg is a steaming pile of sh!t if you're looking at anything that's pre-owned. Just stick to Trusted Sellers here...much better pricing, even if it takes them a week or two to source what you want.

100% agree on Govberg... One example I've been following is they're asking a 20% premium over list on a used AP 15202. They had it at a mere 15% premium over list last month, and lo and behold, it didn't sell, so they decided to jack the price up even further. All when a TS recently sold one at 5% under list price, which is still a big fat 20% increase from what pre-owned was going for a year ago.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Could it be that production has stopped in August, like it does every year during the vacances horlogères, and that supply has hence temporarily dried up a little? I feel that prices tend to pick up in the end of August/September, only to die down again ahead of the spring's watch fairs.

This - shipments down so P up

[AK797]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Well...people are going to get what they can get out of a watch sale. It's the same for real estate, cars, or anything else. Sometimes we shake our heads and think, "who would ever pay that?" and then someone comes along and does. Mick is right, sometimes we're our own worst enemies.

Usually Mick is my own worst enemy.

Originally Posted by uansari1

Really? So when the stock market corrects (and it will any moment), will prices of luxury watches come back to earth?

SM might correct and a black/grey swan or two might derail things for a time, but I'm increasingly thinking the US is half way through a ten year bull market, and watches are going to rise for quite a while too I feel.

[Rolex addict]

I travel up and down the east coast and haven't seen a "shortage." Advertised prices for certain models are inflated by trusted sellers, but that doesn't mean they're getting it. I'm in Philly this week and will try to make time to swing by an AD or two to check inventory.

[mtgjr]

Originally Posted by uansari1

Really? So when the stock market corrects (and it will any moment), will prices of luxury watches come back to earth?

Yes, in the event of a sustained bear market, secondary market prices for high-end watches would likely lose some of their froth. You're a quick learner!

[cataby]

Originally Posted by kdphan

Prices are controlled by a few trusted sellers

Incorrect.

Prices are controlled by the people who purchase.

If no one purchase item "X" at "Y" pricing by dealer "Z" they will eventually have to lower prices to make sales to cover bills.

You don't NEED to purchase anything at a specific price. They do though NEED to make sales to cover ongoing bills.

IF they are not lowering said prices then someone is buying them.

It is honestly that simple.

[porschejeff]

Originally Posted by TerranceClothtowel

I feel like 6 months ago brand new 114060s were offered by trusted sellers for $6500-6750 and now I see some at full MSRP or even $50 higher than retail.

My brother picked up a BNIB 114060 at his AD in Atlanta as a gift for his college grad son for less than I could find one for with our trusted sellers here. He had it shipped to me to avoid the sales tax and was in town to pick it up.

[Seanken]

Originally Posted by AK797

Usually Mick is my own worst enemy.



SM might correct and a black/grey swan or two might derail things for a time, but I'm increasingly thinking the US is half way through a ten year bull market, and watches are going to rise for quite a while too I feel.

2008-2009 was low for the DOW at around 6500. So we're over eight years in now depending on your definition of a bull market. Lots of news about nervousness about a top now. As usual, nobody knows where the top actually is. I'm out of nearly everything for about a year. Yeah, I've left money on the table . . . But I had a great run and I can sleep at night. Buy some silver every month and hedge your paper assets. Don't go all in on anything. Bubbles in REAL estate, stocks, etc in the US.

[hambone1983]

no wonder govberg has 276 used Rolexes in stock

[gwalker]

To even more elaborate Prices of all luxury items
Are getting nuts. Check out my boat thread
Where both motors were destroyed so I'm
Going to repower and sell. 10 year old 36' CC are in the $350k range depending on make. I looked (not for me) a 2016 Viking for $10m+. Customs double the price Upto $20m for. A fishing boat.... but they are
Selling and have a 2-5 year waiting list for delivery. Heck a McLaren F1 was
$2m a few years ago. Now at
Auctions they sell for $15m.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[airchitect]

It seems like with so many brands in the dumps on the secondary market people are almost hedging in Rolex/Patek and prices are reflecting the trend.

[Rolex addict]

Originally Posted by 1William

The prices on the Subs and the BLNR have increased. The prices on the Basel 17 releases have been what they typically are when a new hot model has been released. Depending on the watch, the AD's that I deal with are now very competitive with the Trusted Sellers. The watch sells are driving the prices and the TS are just getting what they can.

I'm seeing this and it's just a few models. Of course, new 2017 releases are going to be hard to get. All you have to do is read many of the posts now. People complaining about prices, asking which has the best resell value, where can I get the cheapest watch, etc. Some will go with TS if it saves them $50. Personally, I prefer an AD if the price is comparable.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Seanken

2008-2009 was low for the DOW at around 6500. So we're over eight years in now depending on your definition of a bull market. Lots of news about nervousness about a top now. As usual, nobody knows where the top actually is. I'm out of nearly everything for about a year. Yeah, I've left money on the table . . . But I had a great run and I can sleep at night. Buy some silver every month and hedge your paper assets. Don't go all in on anything. Bubbles in REAL estate, stocks, etc in the US.

It's all about being comfortable and sleeping at night for sure, I don't try and predict, that's a mug's game, I let price tell me what is happening and then I react with a planned strategy already in place for every eventuality. Selling too early would have cost me far more money in the past than riding the wave until it crashed.