Is the Bubble Bursting

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by vh2k

I think the canary is going to be the TT Datejust -- as that is made in significant quantities. When you see those start to drop to MSRP in the secondary channel, that is the signal that (within 6-12 months), Datejusts should be much more available from ADs again.

Good point. I'm just glad that I don't have a dog in this fight and I am not sitting on any of these hyped pieces bought at these levels.

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[Seddyspaghetti]

Fake news

Congrats if real though lol

[KatGirl]

My daughter lives in Dallas. Which AD, please? If true, I’ll have her pick up a new 36 candy pink OP, for me, for Christmas!


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[Driver8]

As I said on another thread fairly recently, one of my local AD's told me they've been seeing a few more pieces coming through over the last couple of months compared to previously....BUT he also said it's still MASSIVELY offset by the number of enquires from prospective customers, so in real terms any additional stock has put precisely zero dents in the supply/demand imbalance.

[majidessa]

I heard the same thing from my AD (owner) when I picked up my new Sub ND last month. He said that Rolex is supplying more watches than before and they wanna make up for the interruption that affected their production in 2020, nevertheless, the demand is high right now so it will take some time from some to become more accessible. Having said that it does not mean cases will be filled with hot SS models...

[EndlessEight]

Influx to supply for the holiday season.

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by KatGirl

My daughter lives in Dallas. Which AD, please? If true, I’ll have her pick up a new 36 candy pink OP, for me, for Christmas!


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[AdamW]

Originally Posted by mquarter

Grey prices won't fall. Margins are thin, they'd rather let the watches sit there collecting dust than make a loss.

I don't think margins are as thin as you believe for the Grays. GUARANTEED the most well known ones make a minimum of 2.5-3K per watches under 20k. And that's minimum. Brother in-law works for one which is how I know.

[bob sims]

[QUOTE=Mendota;11845250]I think the $15,000 Oyster Perpetuals will lead the cascade of selling when the scales tip. There's no planet where an Oyster Perpetual has that level of intrinsic value.

/QUOTE]
There is such a planet-Earth.

[rambo99]

[QUOTE=bob sims;11846057]

Originally Posted by Mendota

I think the $15,000 Oyster Perpetuals will lead the cascade of selling when the scales tip. There's no planet where an Oyster Perpetual has that level of intrinsic value.

/QUOTE]
There is such a planet-Earth.

nautilus 5711 selling for 180k in grey market, does it has that level of intrinsic value?

[Mendota]

[QUOTE=bob sims;11846057]

Originally Posted by Mendota

I think the $15,000 Oyster Perpetuals will lead the cascade of selling when the scales tip. There's no planet where an Oyster Perpetual has that level of intrinsic value.

/QUOTE]
There is such a planet-Earth.

There is a fundamental difference between the intrinsic value of an asset and perceived value. The secondary market, through this supply/demand imbalance, is creating a perceived value of X, but the intrinsic value of the underlying asset still remains at Y. Ride the wave, my friend. It's benefitting me, too. I personally will just have to think twice about replacing my piece at these prices if heaven forbid something were to happen.

I know your personal circumstances from your other threads, however, and honestly I believe you are doing everything right. I would also enjoy it now and not think twice about it. I wish you the best during this holiday season!

[Mendota]

[QUOTE=rambo99;11846078]

Originally Posted by bob sims

nautilus 5711 selling for 180k in grey market, does it has that level of intrinsic value?

Well, using your example I would say it has zero value to me. I personally think it's among the Fugliest pieces out there, but that's just me. LOL Cheers!

[Chewbacca]

#1 Superbrand (better than super) in the UK.

Only going up! Never down! To the mooooooon!!!!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Sixanthonies

Went to AD yesterday and picked up two new rolexes (OP 31 Green and a new Submariner No Date). We had a nice conversation and the salesperson mentioned they are now getting 25 Rolexes per week compared to 5 per week a month ago. He said getting Date Just were pretty easy now. Went back by AD today (my office is down the street) and he had a 126334 in the Window for sale. Also went to two Rolex non dealers and they said they have also heard supply is increasing alot.

Anyone else experiencing increased Retail options? Falling Grey Market prices?

What bubble?

[Tavli3]

Was at my AD today. Bubble is not bursting. Only one ladies date just in case and as I was looking at it an SA came rushing over grabbed it out of the case and put on a customer’s wrist who bought it on the spot. Lol!!
Then another SA came over and asked if she could help me with anything and I said I’d like to try on some of the new invisible Rolexes you have in the case.
We laughed and then our SA came over and my wife got some nice gifts and I was shutout as usual. Also no idea of when blue ladies datejust ordered months ago will come in so supply issue not any better either.


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[Swiss Mad!]

Well Ralphs bubble has certainly burst...

[S7gpt]

[QUOTE=Mendota;11846085]

Originally Posted by rambo99

Well, using your example I would say it has zero value to me. I personally think it's among the Fugliest pieces out there, but that's just me. LOL Cheers!

5711 - agree fuglly

[subdownunder]

Originally Posted by Edb5020

Easily true. Rolex produces 1M watches a year. If every AD only got 1200 a year, that would mean there are 833 ADs. Are there 833 ADs globally?

Around 1200 I believe.

[schnipples24]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Perfect.

Same with the AD by me. London Jewelers in Americana mall, one of the most well known ADs. I walked in the other day to see their rolex selection hoping i'd get lucky one of these days. I almost had a heart attack when I saw a full display case, every model you could imagine, all sub variations, GMTS, everything. Then I realized something was off.....i couldn't be this lucky, I would've maxed out every credit card I had buying out their inventory. Turns out they were all "Display models", basically just the complete watch, minus the movement i suppose so you can try on a watch you will essentially never be able to buy unless you are a top spender with them.
- They make it very apparent that unless you spend Bookhoo bucks with them, you have absolutely 0% chance of getting any SS model from them. At least with other ADs, you might get lucky and walk in as they're putting a sub in the case, but with London, they've very clearly said to me, that unless i've purchased significantly with them before, that I would never get the chance to purchase a SS rolex from them. I don't agree with that policy, I think everyone should have a fair shot, but I guarantee if I went in there and picked up a very expensive patek that's been sitting for a while, all of a sudden a Pepsi GMT would appear out of thin air (aka the back safe where they keep the stock for the big spenders). I'm just salty, they were extremely elitist to me (I believe they act this way on purpose to create a sense of luxury), and engage in unfair business practices IMO, but that's the way the cookie crumbles and if I don't like it, then there's always buying a sub on the grey market for double MSRP.
- Sorry for the long rant, just was very odd seeing a full case of fake watches.

[Kostas]

which page are the pics on in this fantasy thread!

[tifamo]

oh really. because last weekend I went to 3 Rolex ADs in NYC and every single shop looked like it was robbed empty the night before

[garyk]

I saw that tonight where I live and it was the ADs holiday event!

[Bladeshot]

Short answer: no.

[Rafabond]

the great state of texas deserves no less

[stark1]

Originally Posted by schnipples24

Same with the AD by me. London Jewelers in Americana mall, one of the most well known ADs. I walked in the other day to see their rolex selection hoping i'd get lucky one of these days. I almost had a heart attack when I saw a full display case, every model you could imagine, all sub variations, GMTS, everything. Then I realized something was off.....i couldn't be this lucky, I would've maxed out every credit card I had buying out their inventory. Turns out they were all "Display models", basically just the complete watch, minus the movement i suppose so you can try on a watch you will essentially never be able to buy unless you are a top spender with them.
- They make it very apparent that unless you spend Bookhoo bucks with them, you have absolutely 0% chance of getting any SS model from them. At least with other ADs, you might get lucky and walk in as they're putting a sub in the case, but with London, they've very clearly said to me, that unless i've purchased significantly with them before, that I would never get the chance to purchase a SS rolex from them. I don't agree with that policy, I think everyone should have a fair shot, but I guarantee if I went in there and picked up a very expensive patek that's been sitting for a while, all of a sudden a Pepsi GMT would appear out of thin air (aka the back safe where they keep the stock for the big spenders). I'm just salty, they were extremely elitist to me (I believe they act this way on purpose to create a sense of luxury), and engage in unfair business practices IMO, but that's the way the cookie crumbles and if I don't like it, then there's always buying a sub on the grey market for double MSRP.
- Sorry for the long rant, just was very odd seeing a full case of fake watches.

I understand this business model and what they're after. I, too, have had multiple conversations that have gone this direction. I find that it takes a seasoned and well trained SA to delivery this message without the risk of offending or sounding crass. I've had a woman tell me straight in my face that I should try pursuing my relationship elsewhere. That sticks out as one of the worst offenders, but in a way, I appreciate the honestly. If that makes sense.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by Mendota

I think the $15,000 Oyster Perpetuals will lead the cascade of selling when the scales tip. There's no planet where an Oyster Perpetual has that level of intrinsic value.

My own OP36 now has asking prices ranging from $7,500 to $8,000 plus shipping. Just one year ago I paid below MSRP for mine. Makes no sense.

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How do you formulate that opinion? Because it’s a simple watch, or lacks complications?

IMO, of course the OP is way above MSRP. First, all configurations have been made in little quantities, as # of configs is huge, and it’s still a new release. Second, complications do not indicate price. These are luxury clocks at the end of the day. Third, it’s all supply/demand. Just because MSRP is way below market value, doesn’t mean value can’t be high.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by espanol

How do you formulate that opinion? Because it’s a simple watch, or lacks complications?



IMO, of course the OP is way above MSRP. First, all configurations have been made in little quantities, as # of configs is huge, and it’s still a new release. Second, complications do not indicate price. These are luxury clocks at the end of the day. Third, it’s all supply/demand. Just because MSRP is way below market value, doesn’t mean value can’t be high.

You actually answered all of your own questions. Literally every reason you mentioned is why I believe that. I own one and it's not an $8,000 watch. It's just not.

This exact same phenomenon occurs in every market and has since the dawn of time. It's why we do actual financial analysis of businesses in the equities markets so you can derive a fair market value and a book value to compare to where share prices are currently trading.

I'm sorry, but a $5,600 OP selling for $15,000 is a meme watch, plain and simple, and when things get tight the paper hands dealers who are in over $12k or $13k will unload them faster than a prairie fire. Why would they keep them? They don't wear them, they just sell them, and that's what they will do to minimize their losses.

Stonks watches to the moon! Diamond hands!

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[ap1]

Originally Posted by SDR581

ADs are liars!

[espanol]

Originally Posted by Mendota

You actually answered all of your own questions. Literally every reason you mentioned is why I believe that. I own one and it's not an $8,000 watch. It's just not.

This exact same phenomenon occurs in every market and has since the dawn of time. It's why we do actual financial analysis of businesses in the equities markets so you can derive a fair market value and a book value to compare to where share prices are currently trading.

I'm sorry, but a $5,600 OP selling for $15,000 is a meme watch, plain and simple, and when things get tight the paper hands dealers who are in over $12k or $13k will unload them faster than a prairie fire. Why would they keep them? They don't wear them, they just sell them, and that's what they will do to minimize their losses.

Stonks watches to the moon! Diamond hands!

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I think you missed my point. I’ll ask another way; if this is not a $15k watch, then what is? Watches are nothing more than luxury clocks, and sell based on exclusivity and status. So if an OP isn’t that, then what is?

There is no such thing as a category of a “$15k watch” that according to you, the OP doesn’t fit into. If supply/demand push a watch to $15k, then it is in fact a $15k watch. Simple really.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by espanol

I think you missed my point. I’ll ask another way; if this is not a $15k watch, then what is? Watches are nothing more than luxury clocks, and sell based on exclusivity and status. So if an OP isn’t that, then what is?

There is no such thing as a category of a “$15k watch” that according to you, the OP doesn’t fit into. If supply/demand push a watch to $15k, then it is in fact a $15k watch. Simple really.

Maybe you have more experience in the buying and selling of different brands of watches than I do, and I could be missing some details simply due to my inexperience with the trading aspect of the market. I concede that I only buy to hold for personal use. While I've been watching and admiring Rolex watches since the mid '90s, and came close to purchasing several over the years but for what are now ridiculous reasons, I never bought. I've only just recently actually purchased one.

Not to go down the rabbit hole of offtopic posting, last year I rewarded myself for a professional milestone with a 36mm Oyster Perpetual with the blue Explorer dial. I had eyes on an Explorer way back in 2002 and didn't buy it, due to a stupid review written by a watch expert on Time Zone that later turned out to be fraudulent. Again in 2008 and 2012 I came close to buying one but never did. I also passed on the sub in 2002 because at the time I thought it was too big. Too big? I am still kicking myself for that.

Anyway, MSRP was $5,300 last year and I paid $4,800 for a pre-owned piece from a trusted seller. Totally mint with boxes, papers, tags, etc. My watch to me is a better value than the 36mm Explorer was because it has a better movement, it has the nicer style bracelet and clasp, my AD for me an EZ Link for it, the numbers are lumed, and the blue sunburst dial is gorgeous and more interesting to look at than the black dial on the Explorer. To replace that watch today would now require me to spend $5,600 for MSRP but since my dial is discontinued, I have to go secondary market and pay between $7,500 and $8,000.

I'm on the wait list with my AD for the 124060 Sub. MSRP for this is $8,100.

When I compare the sub and my OP at the same dollar amount, the sub seems like a finer timepiece. The new movement, the overall construction, the bracelet... the watch just feels more substantial and feels like a better value for those $8k than my OP does. If you were to hold both side by side in your hands, which I did this fall (they had a pre-owned 124060 in their pre-owned case), the 124060 feels like it's a better watch and if you ask "which is the $8,000 watch?" I think anyone would pick the sub.

If I look beyond Rolex and look at other brands that I can get for those $8k this opens the door to multiple Jaeger pieces on the pre-owned market which have more complications, the movements are actually decorated, the dials and hands are equally as beautiful, and Jaeger has a very storied and respected history.

My only point in all of this is my basic watch (which I absolutely love and has sentimental value to me as my first) has been pushed into a price category that I, as an actual owner of it, do not feel it belongs in. It doesn't provide value to me at that level. I don't know if I would pay this if I didn't already own it. I've got it insured for these crazy prices and if anything were to happen I would replace it, but if I didn't have it insured and I had to pay out of my own pocket, then I am not sure if I would pay this for my watch. I would pay msrp though. Rolex product managers aren't dumb. I think the MSRP they have calculated is very fair and offers good value at a fair price point.

That's all. Just my opinion.

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