Is the market that bad ?

[Nikrnic]

I just sold four of mine (6 digits) in april to an Omega AD, prices were still strong.
Byebye Blnr, Expll, Milgauss, Sub.
I finally thinned the herd. They were just sitting so i used the funds for something i now use and enjoy.
I did keep my DJ41, 16710 and 14060M.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Artuk]

Market is definetly black not grey i believe that AD’s giving watches to dealers and they told you “we have no watch”

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by GW44

Oh, I know buddy but it’s only fair to call out the trolls and doomsayers here. Sure, there’s an adjustment (needed) in the watch market this year but each time I’ve posted to ask a doom poster to quantify or rationalise their post they never, ever reply as there’s zero substance to their dreary, monotonously negative posts devoid of any substantive context whatsoever.

I believe in balance in life so if people want to trash the whole market expect folks to challenge that angle as there are always two sides to the trend and both cannot be true without context.

UK market is much different than the market here in the States. Both for AD and purchasing on secondary market. Prices here are falling weekly. The big Greys trying to hold out has made them irrelevant. Smaller Greys will sell you the same watch with same exact service for thousands cheaper. While demand has slowed from AD’s there are plenty of people way down the ‘list’ willing to pick up the watches people are passing on at MSRP. We are witnessing a changing of the guard so to speak and no amount of people putting their heads in the sand will change that.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Nikrnic

I just sold four of mine (6 digits) in april to an Omega AD, prices were still strong.
Byebye Blnr, Expll, Milgauss, Sub.
I finally thinned the herd. They were just sitting so i used the funds for something i now use and enjoy.
I did keep my DJ41, 16710 and 14060M.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

That is a beautiful car. I sold a few of my watches and put it towards a rental property. Same reason as you they were just sitting and not being worn. Hopefully they are being enjoyed now.

[myusernamez]

MSRP or nothing for me, my time will come.

[bgbg13]

This was posted on another thread but a good listen from yesterday’s podcast.
Daytona in the teens in time……

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000570035558


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by ronricks

That is a beautiful car. I sold a few of my watches and put it towards a rental property. Same reason as you they were just sitting and not being worn. Hopefully they are being enjoyed now.

You two are indicative of many buyers who have left the market. You saved a few gems and cashed out. After raw speculators, dudes passing around hot references fueled the market uptick. Back to 2010 bois.

Congratulations on your Vette and new property - well done!

[Jackie Daytona]

Market is undoubtedly rough. I don’t like discussing the valuation side much but it’s nuts.

Second hand my Milgauss seems to go for about $3k above a 16600 (I do understand I realistically won’t see the full difference back to me), and I really miss my my 16600 so I was going to sell it and buy the 16600 back. However it seems unsellable unless I sell for the price of the 16600. I suppose I could feasibly just do the even swap, but it just feels really silly to do so given there is a few thousand dollar gap in there to just give up. That’s a BB58 difference.

I suppose I’ll just try again down the road. 16600s will still be available in a couple years and I’ll still have my Milgauss I suppose

[GW44]

Originally Posted by ronricks

UK market is much different than the market here in the States. Both for AD and purchasing on secondary market. Prices here are falling weekly. The big Greys trying to hold out has made them irrelevant. Smaller Greys will sell you the same watch with same exact service for thousands cheaper. While demand has slowed from AD’s there are plenty of people way down the ‘list’ willing to pick up the watches people are passing on at MSRP. We are witnessing a changing of the guard so to speak and no amount of people putting their heads in the sand will change that.

I completely agree and have posted the same here before. The US and UK markets are vastly different in terms of the selling and purchasing patterns. But some folks don’t want to hear that unfortunately so spin the same nonsense on TRF.

[FTX I]

Originally Posted by Nikrnic

I just sold four of mine (6 digits) in april to an Omega AD, prices were still strong.
Byebye Blnr, Expll, Milgauss, Sub.
I finally thinned the herd. They were just sitting so i used the funds for something i now use and enjoy.
I did keep my DJ41, 16710 and 14060M.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Jonnewbank]

just got a blue skydweller at retail. i will never buy at non retail again and if i sell, i’ll sell to my dealer as they can then benefit twice and i probably get some cool watches.

win win


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Retlas]

People are definitely passing on AD calls... I got mine today for a YM40 Blue dial... only 3 months since i expressed interest in it.

[Bmats]

Originally Posted by bgbg13

This was posted on another thread but a good listen from yesterday’s podcast.
Daytona in the teens in time……

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000570035558


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This was interesting. I hate the YouTube videos but this was more interesting — though just reinforcing of those that believe the market isn’t close to bottoms yet.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by bgbg13

This was posted on another thread but a good listen from yesterday’s podcast.
Daytona in the teens in time……

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000570035558


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So I’m going to post here what I posted in the other thread: I listened to the full hour and they never make the case why the market will continue to crater. They just said it will. I mean I get the whole crypto/stocks/recession thing. But will crypto never ever go back up? And what happens if it does?

It’s easy to talk about steel Daytonas reaching $100K when the market goes up and Daytonas reaching the teens when it goes down. But why not talk about market patterns and what could cause a trend reversal?

[mml4]

I believe that we are on the verge of a "perfect storm" for those waiting for the prices to drop. The world wide political situation and resultant economic slump is only part of the story. Amongst the must have the latest crowd Rolex was already starting to lose it's allure. Below msrp pricing at the Grays is on the horizon-Just a matter of time. The big players made a fortune over the last four years so they can afford to hold tight for a while. But even for them it's just a matter of time. If you have the cash and are so disposed in 12-18 months you'll be able to get pretty much what you want at msrp and under.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by askdanny

So I’m going to post here what I posted in the other thread: I listened to the full hour and they never make the case why the market will continue to crater. They just said it will. I mean I get the whole crypto/stocks/recession thing. But will crypto never ever go back up? And what happens if it does?

It’s easy to talk about steel Daytonas reaching $100K when the market goes up and Daytonas reaching the teens when it goes down. But why not talk about market patterns and what could cause a trend reversal?

Tim’s background is in Financial industry and he has been posting since March that impending interest rate hikes along with the money printer being turned off along with inflation etc a lot of big dealers buying/hoarding the GMT’s and Daytona’s etc at all time highs was going to be bad. They are stuck with stock they bought at highs and are far underwater now on these models. So far he has been spot on as prices have significantly dropped since March. Will that continue? Nobody knows.

[bgbg13]

Feels like it’s here and will keep going down…
Blnr full kits selling for 15
Blro in the 18s
116610Lv in the 17s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Tim’s background is in Financial industry and he has been posting since March that impending interest rate hikes along with the money printer being turned off along with inflation etc a lot of big dealers buying/hoarding the GMT’s and Daytona’s etc at all time highs was going to be bad. They are stuck with stock they bought at highs and are far underwater now on these models. So far he has been spot on as prices have significantly dropped since March. Will that continue? Nobody knows.

So true this. I still see generalized disbelief or even denial that the watch market has dropped. The thing is, all of the financial changes that are going on take many months to play out.

What I have seen is a significant correction and a soft market. I believe it is the result of the general public looking at 401k values, stock profiles, crypto falling off a cliff and expenses (due to massive inflation) stretching peoples wallets.

What has yet to be seen is how a slowing economy, higher interest rates, and a slew of other “financial stuff” will further impact people. All I see are storm clouds on the horizon and that we are stuck somewhere in the middle of it.

Only time will tell. I am in the market for quite a few watches and have save a bit away for them. Honestly, I am torn. I want a new Pepsi, Batman, Daytona, royal oak, overseas etc. if I had paid say $80-90k for a 15500 st blue dial toward the beginning of the year I would have one kick ass watch. If prices continue to decline to near what they were in the beginning of 2020, it’s not hard to see a Daytona in the low 20s, gmts trading at 12-15 and the vco at or below msrp around 22k and with the way ro is going, somewhere around 30k. If that happens, I’m close to getting all of these for the price I was considering earlier for the 15500 st. There is a part of me that sees this as too good to be true and maybe it is. But maybe it’s not. Only time will tell.

[pjaffe]

Originally Posted by bgbg13

Feels like it’s here and will keep going down…
Blnr full kits selling for 15
Blro in the 18s
116610Lv in the 17s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I follow Moda pretty closely and haven't seen these numbers yet. I've seen a few naked BLNRs going for 14-15k, haven't seen any BLROs in the 18s yet.

[Lunaen]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I follow Moda pretty closely and haven't seen these numbers yet. I've seen a few naked BLNRs going for 14-15k, haven't seen any BLROs in the 18s yet.

There’s a 2021 BLRO oyster full set for 18.9. One from an earlier year or without card would probably be less.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bgbg13]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I follow Moda pretty closely and haven't seen these numbers yet. I've seen a few naked BLNRs going for 14-15k, haven't seen any BLROs in the 18s yet.

Check it now……
This stuff is changing quickly


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pjaffe]

Originally Posted by bgbg13

Check it now……
This stuff is changing quickly


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I just bought a Rootbeer off there for $20k, 2021 card with box and accessories. Even if I "overpaid" I'm still about 15% above MSRP + tax. Was really torn between that and a SkyD.

[bgbg13]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I just bought a Rootbeer off there for $20k, 2021 card with box and accessories. Even if I "overpaid" I'm still about 15% above MSRP + tax. Was really torn between that and a SkyD.

Can’t go wrong either way!
Both are amazing!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I just bought a Rootbeer off there for $20k, 2021 card with box and accessories. Even if I "overpaid" I'm still about 15% above MSRP + tax. Was really torn between that and a SkyD.

Nice pickup! Close enough to msrp to feel ok if things go lower

[bgbg13]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Nice pickup! Close enough to msrp to feel ok if things go lower

Completely agree, and even if they do and you like it no worries…. Eventually it will go back up, just might take time and probably won’t go insane like it did.
If you bought it to flip it immediately than it’s a different story


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pjaffe]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Nice pickup! Close enough to msrp to feel ok if things go lower

Yea exactly. I have no plans to sell it, but if it drops back down to retail prices no biggie. If I’d paid $50k for a white Daytona on the other hand…

[bgbg13]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

Yea exactly. If I’d paid $50k for a white Daytona on the other hand…

O yeah, that’s a kick in the marble bag right now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NeoDough]

Originally Posted by Ensign

Yeah, but who’s buying?

I bet ADs are the only ones moving stock.

Fair point. There's always a buyer - the only question is price.

[awu]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I follow Moda pretty closely and haven't seen these numbers yet. I've seen a few naked BLNRs going for 14-15k, haven't seen any BLROs in the 18s yet.

BLRO sold earlier this week. Naked 17.6k. Things are changing quickly indeed.

[pjaffe]

Originally Posted by awu

BLRO sold earlier this week. Naked 17.6k. Things are changing quickly indeed.

Obviously caveat emptor when you’re buying a naked watch from a stranger on the Internet, but yea times are changing.