Gray market prices, dropping, not happening!

[Pantheon]

Its because the most of the people who are desperate enough to pay the high prices to obtain the SS pieces instantly from greys have already gotten what they want.

We also have all the incoming threads recently of guys on here getting them from the ADs which in turn would correlate with the grey dealers starting to slow down on their scalping and holding practice. The greys are going to be the AD's best customers in most cases because they buy in volume. All we need a few of these guys to throw in the towel and decide its not worth holding onto a ref anymore because the margins no longer make sense and there will be a chain reaction. Most grey dealers know each other.

Will it help solve the shortage problem? Yes and no. In the short term probably not. In the long term I can see it. The hype will die down and demand will spiral downwards. A lot of people get caught up in the hype and will want a piece that they otherwise probably wouldn't have gotten or default to a piece that was available because they knew it was hard to come by. The flippers looking to make a quick buck will just move onto the next item.

[fsprow]

I believe speculating on watch price trends is about as productive as predicting stock price movement. In other words, we will know the future when it becomes the present. I have a few folks I know in the NYC jewelry (including watches) business and they said their inventories are about normal for the post holiday period and prices are holding up very well, with numerous Asian buyers. A visit to Watches of Switzerland in Hudson Yards suggests most buyers are indeed Asian. Ditto for 47th Steet resellers.

I have no "dog in the hunt" as I buy watches that I love and feel the price is reasonable, not as an investment.

[BamaHammer]

Anytime someone tires to call a market top, 99.9% of the time they are wrong!

[MSchu]

I can't wait until much of this stuff begins hitting the secondary market again enmass... it's easy to ride a wave when you're on the front side of it... on the backside, not so much.

You can easily see this phenomenon in other manufacturers... even though Rolex is not 'other manufacturers '

[Fleetlord]

Lol....a lot of this jibber jabber is a ploy by Grey Dealers to get people off Rolex and into some other junk they have because they need the margins.

Rolex is expensive for Greys to acquire as people know what they're going for, so it's almost impossible for the Greys to pull their lowball tatics to buy the watch cheaply.

They have to shell out $8.7K to buy a SUB-C and sell it for $9.1K. That's only $400.00...other examples are tighter than that....They are struggling with Rolex in that while it's in high demand and flips nice, quick and easy...the margins aren't there.

So, these dudes want to sell the stuff other than Rolex, AP, Patek that they acquired for peanuts (because they told the seller it was soft / weak and they are doing them a big favor buying it for 20% of MSRP) such as UN, Hublot, Breitling...etc.

So now they are spinning the yarn that Rolex is dropping...not buying any now...blah blah blah...buy this Hublot instead so I can make $5K off of it, rather than $300.00

Now I'm not saying that the isn't settling down on some references as time goes by, just take the chatter from greys with a grain of salt.

[MSchu]

I'd kick the sales guy 500$ to sell me a 114060 at msrp.

[MTdweller]

Any significant downturn in the secondary market will mostly affect those holding to sell. For the rest of us that actually wear these watches - yawn.

[justintime1986]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

it's not rising but not dropping as much either. Brand new BLNRs still being had for $13K vs. $20K 3-5 months ago

very impressive development.

[Seaswirl]

Spent some time on 47th street this week and had a nice chat with one of the dealers. His window was full of DaytonaCs, BLROs, new BLNRs, blue Sky Dwellers and LVCs, etc. He noted that he was buying them at a hefty mark up, but that some of these models were getting harder to move at current pricing. In particular, he noted that he had several BLROs that he needed to sell as he had a lot of money tied up with them. He was asking $18.5 for his LNIB BLRO and asked what I was looking to pay for it. I’m not in the market for one, but seemed like their was room to negotiate.

[RTG]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

it's not rising but not dropping as much either. Brand new BLNRs still being had for $13K vs. $20K 3-5 months ago

So last years new model that was never going to be as popular as the 2018 hot model. That’s your market indicator?

[YGRLX]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

OP
This, respectfully, is a terrible generalization and analysis. You are drawing a direct correlation from economy to the Rolex market. You are forgetting important factors, a few of which are

-trends...let’s be honest, Rolex are jewelry and fashion, and these things are subject to trends and cycles. Rolex has been “hot” for a while. It’s very possible that consumers will get bored and move on.

-supply....the current pieces are still being made. Every day there is more and more supply being introduced to the market. There is a finite number of people who wish to spend over $10,000 on a steel sports watch.

-collector demand....there comes a point where many of the “big time” collectors have achieved their vintage grails. These people are market movers for the vintage stuff, and once they are done, the market corrects (look at the rise and fall of vintage Heuer recently).

While the economy plays a part in it, it certainly is not the only factor. My opinion is that the Rolex market is due for a big correction, and we are already starting to see it. Try and sell or trade a new Sub to a dealer or grey dealer....it isn’t worth what it was only a year ago.

This - well said. Plus the fact that rich people who are not accustomed to begging, do not like begging to spend $$$ on luxury goods while at the same time being treated like sh!!.

[YGRLX]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Could be because most of those flippers bought it at the peak of Rolex craze at high prices and they would be now selling at loss if they didn't manage to get rid of those watches by now. That could explain why they are not buying the new pieces- as they are already full with the one bought before the market softening that are unable to unload for profit. I've put some pieces in my Chrono24 notepad to observe, and popular references like the BLRO and BLNR are sitting for months now unsold.

I actually agree partially but also think they are trying to be market makers and keep the posted prices high while actually selling for quite less.

[IR201]

Do you guys really think the people who paid extra for grey are going to be in financial ruin because their hot model dropped a few thousand at market price, due to the correction you predict? You make it sound like it will be some sort of catastrophe for these people, and then you can say I don't you so, when in reality they prob don't care and are unaffected

[garyk]

Originally Posted by RHIII

For 22k-25k sure. Most dealers have some wiggle room - they just want to weed out to just the serious buyers.

I bet if they could be had for 17-18k they’d be moving quickly.

I really just mean it’s a watch that will always come with a solid ROI. Always has been

You know, when I was reading some of the posts here, I was thinking back to the economic crisis of 2007/2008 and remembering the AD whom I worked for in advertising was still unable to fulfill SS Daytona orders. Never changed then, won’t change anytime soon from the ADs perspective. Well said Roger...

[askdanny]

I was working on a story about Japan, as it seems a hot market right now. (Swiss export to Japan jumped over 20% in 2019, 33% in the last two years; Hodinkee opens its first international edition in Japan.)

The Japanese grey market doesn't represent the global market, I get it, but it is an interesting market to observe because there is little negotiation--most prices listed are firm. So it's easier to track trends by observing price changes. Yes, we have reached a plateau and a softening. But no sign of drop yet.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Could be because most of those flippers bought it at the peak of Rolex craze at high prices and they would be now selling at loss if they didn't manage to get rid of those watches by now. That could explain why they are not buying the new pieces- as they are already full with the one bought before the market softening that are unable to unload for profit. I've put some pieces in my Chrono24 notepad to observe, and popular references like the BLRO and BLNR are sitting for months now unsold.

Bang on.

Grays bought at peak as well. They dont want to sell at a loss so they keep their list price so they still make a profit. There is always going to be 1 or 2 buyers that will buy it but the market is soft. You see when the market cools it takes time to reflect on these forums and to end user sales. B2B is probably 90% of the deals here. Once grays stop paying premium between themselves is when you will see the drops to the end user.

That's why I challenge anyone saying its not cooling to go message a gray dealer and ask them for their cash buy price for any of the hot models. Either they will

1) low ball you and give you a price that is nowhere near your asking or anything near what they are listing for
2) they will outright refuse to buy it
3) or they will ask you to put it on consignment. They wont want to put up the money to list your watch so consignment is a good strategy and they dont use any capital. They still profit the same 10-20% per sale anyway.

Thats it.

[AstroClock]

Has anyone tried to sell a new BLNR to a grey recently? Are they really turning them down, or offering around MRSP+tax? There does seem to be a lot for sale online. I’m hoping flippers stop buying, so those of us that actually want to buy and wear can get one from an AD.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by AstroClock

Has anyone tried to sell a new BLNR to a grey recently? Are they really turning them down, or offering around MRSP+tax? There does seem to be a lot for sale online. I’m hoping flippers stop buying, so those of us that actually want to buy and wear can get one from an AD.

Go try. Last month my friend got offered $12.5k.

He called me yesterday to say the same gray offered less now so I would think his offer was $11.5 or $12k flat.

That makes sense because add 10% to $12k and the REAL selling prices around $13,200 - $13,500 is about right for the current market. I just told him to sell it. Not worth it he is not a watch lover and only bought a LV/BLNR/SS Daytona to try make an easy $10k. Now he cant even get his money back on the BLNR as he bought it peak. LOL

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by swish77

Where is "here?" Seems location on grey-market dealers would be virtually irrelevant anyway, since everyone ships everywhere and a lot of this type of shopping is done online.

Also, keep in mind we're coming out of the holiday season, where $20K-plus watches aren't often given as presents.

Springtime is when the sales will hit their stride again.

I heard that before. Before thanksgiving people said that holiday season is coming and the prices will shoot up again. Guess what, its still going down lol. People got tired already or already got what they want from ad or grey.


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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

I heard that before. Before thanksgiving people said that holiday season is coming and the prices will shoot up again. Guess what, its still going down lol. People got tired already or already got what they want from ad or grey.
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LOL - those reasons are all BS. The market is soft as a whole. I know many were saying after the holiday season prices are going to shoot up. LOL

Its doing the opposite. Its a weak market doesn't matter if its spring, summer or winter. Holidays or thanksgiving or whatever. Makes no difference to market sentiment currently.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by peterpl

LOL - those reasons are all BS. The market is soft as a whole. I know many were saying after the holiday season prices are going to shoot up. LOL

Its doing the opposite. Its a weak market doesn't matter if its spring, summer or winter. Holidays or thanksgiving or whatever. Makes no difference to market sentiment currently.

Yup! They trying to fool people to buy one now

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[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by RTG

So last years new model that was never going to be as popular as the 2018 hot model. That’s your market indicator?

Lol what are you talking about? 2018 models of BLNR is selling for even lower.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Bang on.

Grays bought at peak as well. They dont want to sell at a loss so they keep their list price so they still make a profit. There is always going to be 1 or 2 buyers that will buy it but the market is soft. You see when the market cools it takes time to reflect on these forums and to end user sales. B2B is probably 90% of the deals here. Once grays stop paying premium between themselves is when you will see the drops to the end user.

That's why I challenge anyone saying its not cooling to go message a gray dealer and ask them for their cash buy price for any of the hot models. Either they will

1) low ball you and give you a price that is nowhere near your asking or anything near what they are listing for
2) they will outright refuse to buy it
3) or they will ask you to put it on consignment. They wont want to put up the money to list your watch so consignment is a good strategy and they dont use any capital. They still profit the same 10-20% per sale anyway.

Thats it.

That's it. Dealers are looking at margin targets, not gross price targets. At least the ones who can hang for the long term.

Also, people seem to assume that the "thousands" of sell listings for hot models means that the seller actually owns the listed watches. This just isn't true for many of them. You make a deal and they go and acquire the watch and sell it for the target margin. Listings don't always = supply.

[pjaffe]

Did BLNR's really get up to $20k? I feel badly for the sucker that paid such an exorbitant price.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

Did BLNR's really get up to $20k? I feel badly for the sucker that paid such an exorbitant price.

Yes! Back in May june july. Go scan back on trf sales youll see. Then summer came when its starts to dwindle down


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

That's it. Dealers are looking at margin targets, not gross price targets. At least the ones who can hang for the long term.

Also, people seem to assume that the "thousands" of sell listings for hot models means that the seller actually owns the listed watches. This just isn't true for many of them. You make a deal and they go and acquire the watch and sell it for the target margin. Listings don't always = supply.

Margin is the key here....

As I wrote earlier in this thread, margins on secondary SS Rolex Sports are terrible, so dealers (and youtubers who are dealers) are trying desperately to flatten out the secondary Rolex market so they have a chance to sell their higher margin junk..

ROLEX, ROLEX, ROLEX is killing their margin because the market is so tight between bid and ask....it's razor thin....

Also, most of these broski / gentleman dealers don't have all these watches...that's common knowledge...

They put up some lifestyle pics showing off a watch next to a Ferrari or drinking wine, or doing some fun activity in a ritzy place. The buyers are then directed to the broski's ecommerce site via instasham or whatever.... Then they get a sale from someone who sees that awesome and actively cool marketing and takes the bait. Then the desperate "call" goes out the underworld network to fill the "order"...but with Rolex the margins suck...so it's time to CHILL off the Rollie market so they can sell other dog#%*& and make some money.

ALSO...you can't use the dealer ad's to gauge if the watches are selling. Many just leave them up 24/7.....sold or not to keep the flow going. Even if it's a unique piece...keep the flow going so you can re buy the piece, and sell it again for profit over and over. Lot's of smoke and mirrors here guys....stuff isn't as it seems on the surface.

Posting videos about how the Rolex market is soft or downplaying bid pricing is just a strategy to sow seeds that ROLEX isn't that hawt anymore and you should buy this Hublot instead so I can make $5K on it.

This dude spoke about it back in October...the first half is spot on about margin issues and how the RED HOT Rolex market is lousy profit as they just can't obtain them cheap enough....and thus want you to buy #$#$%#$ they can make money off of...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUhTpZXUEhs

[droptopman]

Originally Posted by RHIII

For 22k-25k sure. Most dealers have some wiggle room - they just want to weed out to just the serious buyers.

I bet if they could be had for 17-18k they’d be moving quickly.

I really just mean it’s a watch that will always come with a solid ROI. Always has been


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Hi Roger!

Well, not always. Not until the 5 digits. Daytona was by far the worst selling Rolex sport model for 40 years. Goes to show how hype and demand change the mind set.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Margin is the key here....

As I wrote earlier in this thread, margins on secondary SS Rolex Sports are terrible, so dealers (and youtubers who are dealers) are trying desperately to flatten out the secondary Rolex market so they have a chance to sell their higher margin junk..

ROLEX, ROLEX, ROLEX is killing their margin because the market is so tight between bid and ask....it's razor thin....

Also, most of these broski / gentleman dealers don't have all these watches...that's common knowledge...

They put up some lifestyle pics showing off a watch next to a Ferrari or drinking wine, or doing some fun activity in a ritzy place. The buyers are then directed to the broski's ecommerce site via instasham or whatever.... Then they get a sale from someone who sees that awesome and actively cool marketing and takes the bait. Then the desperate "call" goes out the underworld network to fill the "order"...but with Rolex the margins suck...so it's time to CHILL off the Rollie market so they can sell other dog#%*& and make some money.

ALSO...you can't use the dealer ad's to gauge if the watches are selling. Many just leave them up 24/7.....sold or not to keep the flow going. Even if it's a unique piece...keep the flow going so you can re buy the piece, and sell it again for profit over and over. Lot's of smoke and mirrors here guys....stuff isn't as it seems on the surface.

Posting videos about how the Rolex market is soft or downplaying bid pricing is just a strategy to sow seeds that ROLEX isn't that hawt anymore and you should buy this Hublot instead so I can make $5K on it.

This dude spoke about it back in October...the first half is spot on about margin issues and how the RED HOT Rolex market is lousy profit as they just can't obtain them cheap enough....and thus want you to buy #$#$%#$ they can make money off of...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUhTpZXUEhs

Fleetlord
Are saying that grey dealers are keeping prices high so we will turn away from those Rolex Professional SS pieces, and move us into wanting the TT or PM pieces which have higher margins for them?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by BillA

Fleetlord
Are saying that grey dealers are keeping prices high so we will turn away from those Rolex Professional SS pieces, and move us into wanting the TT or PM pieces which have higher margins for them?

Not exactly...some are looking for margin relief outside of Rolex entirely.

They are attempting to do this by trying to dissuade people from wanting a Rolex by hyping the “bubble has burst” storyline. They know FOMO is a major factor driving the Rolex demand, so if the picture is painted that values are dropping, some buyers will lose their laser lock on Rolex and be susceptible to buying higher margin junk they wouldn’t have cared about...

There are also dealers stalling on buying Rolex or excessively lowballing bid prices, not because they can’t move them, but because they make puny margins on them and they are going a different route to gain margins through other brands.

Not all greys are doing this, but the margin crunch is very real. It’s like a fire burning out all it’s fuel...the Rolex heat and extreme value retention is burning the secondary dealers right out of the market. The brand is now just too strong for them to get the product cheap enough to sell with the margins they need.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Not exactly...some are looking for margin relief outside of Rolex entirely.

They are attempting to do this by trying to dissuade people from wanting a Rolex by hyping the “bubble has burst” storyline. They know FOMO is a major factor driving the Rolex demand, so if the picture is painted that values are dropping, some buyers will lose their laser lock on Rolex and be susceptible to buying higher margin junk they wouldn’t have cared about...

There are also dealers stalling on buying Rolex or excessively lowballing bid prices, not because they can’t move them, but because they make puny margins on them and they are going a different route to gain margins through other brands.

Not all greys are doing this, but the margin crunch is very real. It’s like a fire burning out all it’s fuel...the Rolex heat and extreme value retention is burning the secondary dealers right out of the market. The brand is now just too strong for them to get the product cheap enough to sell with the margins they need.

Interesting points, thanks.