Anecdotal evidence of lowering confidence in HK watch prices.

[desertwanderer]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I said this on another thread, but the reality is the market is similar to the titanic after it hit the ice burg. The ship is sinking and the band will keep playing and all pretending that its not going down; indeed there is much incentive to keep the illusion alive. But inflation is a problem just about everywhere, economies in major markets slowing, and a war that has no end in site, and the oil cartels who know what time it is and that the days of peoples dependence on oil for cars are numbered and they will run it up as far and fast as they can creating all kinds of economic damage along the way via fueling inflation (too short sited to diversify their economies and adapt to a changing world) before the entire thing crashes. I mean the oil market is also based upon mass manipulation not unlike the current watch market. There is no oil shortage, just the perception via intentionally reduced supply output.

The fact is, there is no good news economically anywhere, no end to the war in sight, and as fuel prices continue to skyrocket, it will continue to drive inflation sky-high and this mass delusion that is the current watch market will face a reckoning. Its when and not if, im afraid folks. When that happens, that will be fine with me, as I will still be here.

Good point, i forgot to mention the fact that the sky high oil price is also fueling the boom in the GCC as oil money washes down through the system. Whether it be military spending, mega developments in Saudi, New Tourist investments in Dubai, Property.. it all flows through the system as a multitude of companies and individuals benefit and it puts money in peoples pockets.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by desertwanderer

Good point, i forgot to mention the fact that the sky high oil price is also fueling the boom in the GCC as oil money washes down through the system. Whether it be military spending, mega developments in Saudi, New Tourist investments in Dubai, Property.. it all flows through the system as a multitude of companies and individuals benefit and it puts money in peoples pockets.

It’s amazing to me how slowly we adapt sometimes. This emphasis on fossil fuels is like being in the candle business on the Eve of Thomas Edison’s investing the light bulb. Rather than say look, we need to diversity and expand economically, it’s like nope, let’s stick to the oil and hooray for us today and let others worry about tomorrow. As always, history will favor the innovators.


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[Quamby]

Seems like Kingfook has lost their Rolex AD status totally but they still have Audemars Piguet and Patek, and Yes Watch Co Ltd’s Mody Road TST shop lost their Rolex AD status.

[resort]

Originally Posted by Quamby

Seems like Kingfook has lost their Rolex AD status totally but they still have Audemars Piguet and Patek, and Yes Watch Co Ltd’s Mody Road TST shop lost their Rolex AD status.

Why did they lose it?

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by chaokuay

China is locked down and will probably extend into 2023...

Or longer. I think the world has changed abruptly for some countries and there is no going back.

Open is perhaps not really open.

[Quamby]

Originally Posted by resort

Why did they lose it?

I have no idea. Kingfook only had one Rolex store (the retro-looking Chinese shop in Central) and probably thought it wasn’t worthwhile anymore.

[Iwannarolex5]

Just walked into an AD in Singapore a couple of hours ago. No watches for sale and every single piece is apparently for display only. They are only taking names of “interested parties” and were very clear this differs from being on a “waitlist”. Same in Paris last week!


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[desertwanderer]

Originally Posted by Chester01

It’s amazing to me how slowly we adapt sometimes. This emphasis on fossil fuels is like being in the candle business on the Eve of Thomas Edison’s investing the light bulb. Rather than say look, we need to diversity and expand economically, it’s like nope, let’s stick to the oil and hooray for us today and let others worry about tomorrow. As always, history will favor the innovators.


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Oh for sure change is afoot, however you cannot blame the oil producers for continually pumping oil when the rest of the world is prepared to buy everything they produce at inflated prices. There is a relatively low cost of extraction/production in the GCC, Saudi in particular is less than $20 a barrel i think.

However i think its wrong to assume that all of the middle east is simply sitting back and doing nothing about tomorrow. The UAE has long since transformed itself from a dusty land of Pearl fishing and camels through the use of Oil money to drive economic diversity and growth. Its location has lent itself to be a major freight and logistics hub, its tourist industry is well established and recognized around the world, it has also proven to be a location of choice as a regional business hub. The current government priorities appear to be around Solar power, Health tourism, Manufacturing, Food security, technology and attracting pensioners as residents.
Saudi which has long been a pretty closed society to the rest of the world has realised a little later in the day that it needs to diversify and is now pumping $billions into tourist resorts in the north west of the country as well as using its sovereign investment funds to buy up everything from electric car makers (Lucid) to football clubs, Telecoms and Electronic games manufacturers.
I think gone are the days when the oil money is just used to buy tanks, build palaces and buy off the population.
In no way am i condoning many of their other actions, however for sure they are changing and it will be interesting to see where they are in a decades time.

[mquarter]

Originally Posted by Jkcwl

The SA said the same thing, he said they will put the watches on display at random times so it’s a good idea to keep an eye out. Upon further conversation he said it’s been their business model for the past two years, I highly doubt it. Perhaps they do put it on display right before a VIP arrives to make it seem he got in on display. Who knows.

You're right to doubt. It's just a canned response to get people to eff off.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by desertwanderer

Oh for sure change is afoot, however you cannot blame the oil producers for continually pumping oil when the rest of the world is prepared to buy everything they produce at inflated prices. There is a relatively low cost of extraction/production in the GCC, Saudi in particular is less than $20 a barrel i think.

However i think its wrong to assume that all of the middle east is simply sitting back and doing nothing about tomorrow. The UAE has long since transformed itself from a dusty land of Pearl fishing and camels through the use of Oil money to drive economic diversity and growth. Its location has lent itself to be a major freight and logistics hub, its tourist industry is well established and recognized around the world, it has also proven to be a location of choice as a regional business hub. The current government priorities appear to be around Solar power, Health tourism, Manufacturing, Food security, technology and attracting pensioners as residents.
Saudi which has long been a pretty closed society to the rest of the world has realised a little later in the day that it needs to diversify and is now pumping $billions into tourist resorts in the north west of the country as well as using its sovereign investment funds to buy up everything from electric car makers (Lucid) to football clubs, Telecoms and Electronic games manufacturers.
I think gone are the days when the oil money is just used to buy tanks, build palaces and buy off the population.
In no way am i condoning many of their other actions, however for sure they are changing and it will be interesting to see where they are in a decades time.

I agree, I think they are ahead of the curve on many ways compare to the opec countries. But this “demand” for oil is false and fabricated. 1) More people are working from home than ever, 2) cars are more fuel efficient than ever 3) electric vehicles are taking on a larger part of the market by the day, 4) the war in Russia accounts for like 10 percent of oil supply and the price of gas up like 200 percent. I’m not buying the baloney, it’s once again pure market speculators driving up prices by talking about “demand”. The market is 99 percent Psychology and 1 percent actual supply/demand. Most of the world lives on less than 10 bucks a day and it costs 150 to fill the tank, something isn’t adding up here.


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I agree, I think they are ahead of the curve on many ways compare to the opec countries. But this “demand” for oil is false and fabricated. 1) More people are working from home than ever, 2) cars are more fuel efficient than ever 3) electric vehicles are taking on a larger part of the market by the day, 4) the war in Russia accounts for like 10 percent of oil supply and the price of gas up like 200 percent. I’m not buying the baloney, it’s once again pure market speculators driving up prices by talking about “demand”. The market is 99 percent Psychology and 1 percent actual supply/demand. Most of the world lives on less than 10 bucks a day and it costs 150 to fill the tank, something isn’t adding up here.


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Are you sure WFM does not translate to work from shopping mall which requires driving? i.e. take quick call in mall cafe, then spend rest of afternoon shopping while 'working'?

[Scapegoat]

I'd like to drop a note to say that I have thoroughly enjoyed reading the discussions in this thread.

Insightful, informative and respectful.

Keep it up gents. (Sorry, I don't have much to contribute to this chat)

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Are you sure WFM does not translate to work from shopping mall which requires driving? i.e. take quick call in mall cafe, then spend rest of afternoon shopping while 'working'?

Maybe, but data indicates that spending is slowing, and it’s about to drop off the end of a table. The spigot is off, and average folks people will be spending half of their net income on gas and the other half on housing. Not much left over after that. There is simply no good economic news and the band is playing as the titanic sinking. The parade is over.


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