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Old 20 January 2019, 10:01 PM   #61
DLRIDES
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My conclusion:

In thirty to forty years, up to sixty percent of mechanical watch manufacturers will be out of business. The remaining will supply the WIS type enthusiasts.Rolex will be one of the survivors.


There will be a new market segment of hybrid mechanical/smart watch that will be powered by a mechanical movement with a micro generator producing the current for the electronic functions. Imagine an advanced version of the current Ressence E-Crown. Rolex will manufacture a line of watches for this new segment, and probably currently in development.



I agree, Rolex will be one of the survivors and I think their policy of scarcity causing desirability is because they are looking towards the future.[/QUOTE]

Bingo !
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:10 PM   #62
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I am 21 and I see a lot of people around me still interested in watches. Granted people I see are slightly out of your age bracket. (We will be in early-mid 30s in 2030.) But we are already Gen Z. And as much a lot of people around me like Apple Watch more, they do understand watches. Both have their place.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:22 PM   #63
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Will younger adults in the near future be interested in Rolex Watches?

Of course they will.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:26 PM   #64
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I still find slide rules fascinating.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:26 PM   #65
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If tech and SM truly do take over, and it looks like it will, the one saving grace is that a lot of these guys will be buying Rolexes mainly just to post and get likes and wives for themselves so the Rolex brand should be fine, but other lesser known and thus lower status brands will disappear, think many mid-lux brands are already struggling.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:32 PM   #66
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In short, yes. In fact I predict that in the future analog watches like Rolex will be more popular and much more expensive in the future.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:41 PM   #67
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Apple watch is just another type of watch. Will not replace a Rolex. People will have one or the other, or both.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:47 PM   #68
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I tend to agree - the mechanical tech is already not necessary, this won’t change in 2030, but there will always be that inextricable draw to a mechanical mechanism and beautifully constructed/ finished case/dial aesthetic.
And also showing off.....as we all know there are plenty of people who buy watches as a statement or to fill some void in their makeup....if the world becomes less materialistic as we finally accept that stuff dont make the man then a large portion of would be buyers will dwindle.....or maybe not
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:47 PM   #69
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Apple watch is just another type of watch. Will not replace a Rolex. People will have one or the other, or both.
Quick question regarding that......Is an Apple Watch really a watch, or is it a simple repeater? If permanently disconnected from cellular and wi-fi networks, do they still keep time?
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:49 PM   #70
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I think many of the desirable functions of a smart watch (heart rate tracking, notifications, etc) will actually be done by the BRACELET in a few years, so you can have a nice mechanical on top. There are even rings that can do some of this stuff. Wearing a giant screen on your wrist will look like using an 80s style mobile phone with 3 foot antenna :)

And Google glass is gonna make a comeback....big time.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:56 PM   #71
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its the younger generation in the age of social media pushing the desirability of Rolex more than any group IMO. I think the next generation to come may do the same.

Just a feeling but i think the Rolex age demographic has drastically skewed younger in recent times. Its also the more desirable demographic for companies to be in as well. High income young people have more disposable income than older high income individuals because of other financial responsibilities as you age. These young cats have money to burn and no obligations.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:56 PM   #72
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Quality mechanical watches that double as jewelry simply make too much sense to completely disappear any time soon. Most 60 year olds don't own a decent watch either so it's really not fair to compre a group on a watch forum to the 20something population as a whole. I didn't wear a watch at all from about 1989 to 2005.

The kids are alright.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:57 PM   #73
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Wearable tech will simply be the gateway drug to Rolex, Patek and (some) other high end brands. In fact you could argue that Apple watches and the like will actually benefit Rolex.

Wearables will get people adorning their wrists who otherwise wouldn’t have been in the market for any sort of watch. Then, when a proportion of these people start to earn the income that justifies it, they will want to signal their status by buying into luxury watches, having already been habituated to wearing a (different sort of) watch on their wrists.

Wearable tech may be the death of the lower end of the mechanical market though.
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Old 20 January 2019, 10:59 PM   #74
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I do believe that the Rolex tide will ebb and flow among the younger generation but it will always be omnipresent.
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Old 20 January 2019, 11:47 PM   #75
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And also showing off.....as we all know there are plenty of people who buy watches as a statement or to fill some void in their makeup....if the world becomes less materialistic as we finally accept that stuff dont make the man then a large portion of would be buyers will dwindle.....or maybe not


Also true - watches will most likely still serve as a Veblen good for many.
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Old 20 January 2019, 11:48 PM   #76
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And also showing off.....as we all know there are plenty of people who buy watches as a statement or to fill some void in their makeup....if the world becomes less materialistic as we finally accept that stuff dont make the man then a large portion of would be buyers will dwindle.....or maybe not
liking nice things and wanting to wear nice things can be internal and not an external signal. I dont buy cheap anything, but i dont buy it for other people its for me. Still probably meet the definition of " materialistic" though but where those possessions are aimed is different and its not to show anyone else anything.
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Old 21 January 2019, 12:24 AM   #77
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Had a conversation with a few buddies of mine and would like to hear these forums thoughts on the matter.

Incase I didn't make it clear with the title let me say this, will a 18 to 28 year old be interested in Rolex Watches let's say in the year 2030?

I think Rolex isn't going to dwindle down anytime soon, but my friends say that brands like Apple have shifted the way people look at watches. "Why look at a watch just for time when I could look at it for a text and/or email as well?" he claims would be the thought process of a person who is 23 in the year 2030.

I understand some of their points, technology is getting more and more advanced sooner than later. But will Luxury watches be something people look into in the future or will it be all about the digital or smart watch scene?


Maybe I'm biased but I think people like myself who purchased their first Rolex at 21 will still be out in the world in 2030/2040/2050 and so on... what do you guys think?

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I think the disposable tech business is getting old with the public and we can already see the slowdown with the newest iphones. People will start to realize that the watch ties them to the iphone more and not less as many people think. I for one and getting tired to charging 900 devices in my house everyday. Rolex and the like will always stand the test of time because they serve the function of time, but also can appear as jewelry. I mean many here wear their rolex as jewelry and not for the timekeeping. People have been wearing jewelry since the days of ancient Egypt.
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Old 21 January 2019, 12:30 AM   #78
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I just think most younger folks use their cell phone for the time at this point. I would not expect a migration of the younger generation to all of a sudden wearing watches when they can afford them. They just don't see the point. Clearly, the watch companies are betting otherwise and keeping everything in short supply fuels interest and demand.
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Old 21 January 2019, 12:31 AM   #79
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Interesting question

I can imagine my Grandfather saying to himself, these pocket watches are great, everyone will have one.

I have his in my display stand.
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Old 21 January 2019, 12:33 AM   #80
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This is quite the contrast to the picture I posted previously in this thread. Good thing my son is only on The Swatch Forum so he won’t see this and feel cheated....


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Old 21 January 2019, 12:47 AM   #81
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Interesting question

I can imagine my Grandfather saying to himself, these pocket watches are great, everyone will have one.

I have his in my display stand.
Insofar as most reach into their pocket these days to grab their timekeeping device, your Grandfather was mostly correct.
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Old 21 January 2019, 12:50 AM   #82
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I have no doubt that watches will rise in appeal amongst the millennial generation. They’re a generation that enjoys nice things, especially when you can flaunt it on IG. As soon as their disposable income catches up with their ability to flex on social media, watch sales will follow.


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Old 21 January 2019, 12:56 AM   #83
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My kid is about to turn 19. He wants a Rolex really bad. I got him a decent Movado with a Swiss automatic for Christmas. He’s just into mechanical watches. He still stares at my sub and talks about it all the time. I don’t think Rolex is going anywhere.
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Old 21 January 2019, 12:56 AM   #84
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I was picking up a new car last week, and the “genius” that goes over the car with you was a 21yo kid. He’s in the backseat, my CA in the passenger, and as we get started going over the tech he stops and says “Sir, is that a vintage meters first 5513”. We spent as much time talking watches as we did going over my car. The kid had on a baby and also has a milgauss and a vintage DJ. Hope isn’t lost on the young!!


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Old 21 January 2019, 01:27 AM   #85
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I think that with the watches will happen the same thing that happened with the fine fountain pens. They will slowly fade away for the mass and just remain for a more educated minority, wealthy, and with a desire for style. Actually, wristwatches are already seen for many as extemporaneous, a kind of anachronism.
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Old 21 January 2019, 01:30 AM   #86
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I was not interested in Rolex until 2 years ago. My uncle always had a Rolex but I never bothered. Then one day I held it and put it on. It’s an age thing. You grow up, you become wiser. I bought my Datejust 3 days ago and every day I put it on, I smile.
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Old 21 January 2019, 01:34 AM   #87
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Quick question regarding that......Is an Apple Watch really a watch, or is it a simple repeater? If permanently disconnected from cellular and wi-fi networks, do they still keep time?
They do still keep the time. I often leave my phone at home when out running with my Apple Watch.
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Old 21 January 2019, 01:51 AM   #88
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Went to a hodinkee event last year. Most of the attendees are in their early 30s. The place was packed. My guess is if they are financially successful, they will be into luxury watches.
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Old 21 January 2019, 02:04 AM   #89
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I just think most younger folks use their cell phone for the time at this point. I would not expect a migration of the younger generation to all of a sudden wearing watches when they can afford them. They just don't see the point.
This is the only point that I 100% agree with on the future of Mechanical Watches, I don't wanna say that this next generation of young adults are gonna be dumb cause that's not true but I guess the best I can come up with now is to say that most of them will be blind to the point of it.

Unless they look at it like a piece of jewelry it just won't make much sense to them.

My daughter who is turning 9 this year already wants a Rolex watch after seeing her young aunt get one for her 14th birthday. The only reason I believe she wants a Rolex is because she's being brought up around Rolex watches. I can't imagine people who are not brought up around them wanting one very often, most of my daughters friends want the newest iPhones or Video Games but because I limit my household on how much we are allowed to use technology my kids look to normal things instead of just electronics.

(don't get me wrong my daughter loves the Mario Karts and Zelda games of this world but it's a once in a while instead of being glued to it which I thank God for)

If anything I wrote doesn't make sense I will reread it and edit later literally just got up had a long night

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Old 21 January 2019, 02:18 AM   #90
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Totally !

The son will be worse ...................
Still trying to figure out how this guy is famous? and why?
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