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AperolSpritz · 6 October 2021, 10:27 PM

Hello all,

I am in the middle of a dilemma. I had initially expressed interest for a 15407ST (like a year ago) along with a few other watches. In the meantime my interest in the same model in black ceramic grew (15416), and I mentioned that to my SA.

Received a call this am from the boutique and they tell me a 15407ST is there waiting for me if I want to pull the trigger.

I was told if I pass, the 15416CE could be here in c.6 months...

But if I took the ST, then they wouldn't be able to allocate me a CE in the future.

I like both. ST is a classic and steel really makes the bracelet shine but CE is special.

What would you guys do?

supernova · 6 October 2021, 10:30 PM

The ST for me, especially since you can get right now at retail.

wb55 · 6 October 2021, 10:33 PM

A bird in the hand...

AshAP · 6 October 2021, 10:39 PM

I genuinely prefer the steel.

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Reign · 6 October 2021, 11:06 PM

ST - is it more classic RO and the movement has more contrast

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Becweb · 6 October 2021, 11:26 PM

Steel for me please

kimwizzzuuu · 7 October 2021, 12:12 AM

i'd save the full ceramic opportunities for QP and Tourb.

Neming · 7 October 2021, 12:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wb55

A bird in the hand...

Fully agree

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Vince_76 · 7 October 2021, 12:36 AM

What a great problem to have. Can’t go wrong. Guess it would depend on your current collection. Sounds like you’ve been having an increased affinity for the CE. If you have another steel RO I’d opt for ceramic here. But again, can’t go wrong.

TunaTuna · 7 October 2021, 12:59 AM

I would get the one that trades higher over retail and makes the better investment. What you like is secondary

AshAP · 7 October 2021, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

I would get the one that trades higher over retail and makes the better investment. What you like is secondary

Is this a serious comment?

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HMHM · 7 October 2021, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AshAP

Is this a serious comment?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You just got baited.

Anyway OP. I personally prefer the steel compared to the CE. CE would be the icing on the cake later on if you can get it. Steel watches have a traditional vibe to it, more utilitarian in nature compared to the jewellery nature of CE.

Waybach · 7 October 2021, 01:49 AM

Steel for sure! I agree with Kimwizzzuuu, if you want ceramic then go for the QP.

watchucallit · 7 October 2021, 01:54 AM

I personally prefer and like the ST.. I own one

VogelPhoenix · 7 October 2021, 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

Hello all,

I am in the middle of a dilemma. I had initially expressed interest for a 15407ST (like a year ago) along with a few other watches. In the meantime my interest in the same model in black ceramic grew (15416), and I mentioned that to my SA.

Received a call this am from the boutique and they tell me a 15407ST is there waiting for me if I want to pull the trigger.

I was told if I pass, the 15416CE could be here in c.6 months...

But if I took the ST, then they wouldn't be able to allocate me a CE in the future.

I like both. ST is a classic and steel really makes the bracelet shine but CE is special.

What would you guys do?

Not the worst dilemma to have. How close is the "could be here" to a "will be here"? If I was confident the CE was coming, absent a major disaster, I would probably wait.

In my case the dilemma is purely hypothetical (although the boutique told me that one sunny day they will have a 15407 or 15416 for me), but ignoring hype, the 15416 does seem more wearable. The 15407 is surprisingly flashy IRL and at the same time more delicate for regular use.

Edit: this of course assumes that the boutique relationship is not tied to a particular SA, who have a tendency to just up and leave.

huncho · 7 October 2021, 02:58 AM

15407ST 100% for me

HippoPAPAmus · 7 October 2021, 03:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AshAP

I genuinely prefer the steel.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is the one.

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Benzsiam · 7 October 2021, 04:26 AM

Wow, I wish I have this problem.

Both are gorgeous and I would get the first one that become available to me first.

AperolSpritz · 7 October 2021, 07:11 AM

Thanks so much guys for all your feedback, advice and opinion.

I must say I am quite surprised by the landslide in favor of the ST. I was expecting it to be more balanced.

Because of that I have to admit I am even more in doubt than before ;-). I was kinda leaning towards the CE but now... Guess I'll have a few drinks and sleep over it ;-)

kimwizzzuuu · 7 October 2021, 12:27 PM

Get whichever is available these days, you never know which vips or celebrities jump in front of your allocation.

911AP · 7 October 2021, 01:27 PM

I can't believe people are saying the steel over the ceramic. Do not listen. Get the ceramic. It's probably the hardest watch to get from AP right now and for the foreseeable future. It's probably one of the most unique APs next to the ceramic openwork perpetual.

If they can guarantee you the CE in 6 months do not hesitate. But if you have any doubt about their ability to deliver, then go with the steel. While the steel 15407 is beautiful, the ceramic is just next level insanity.

sokoloka · 7 October 2021, 01:54 PM

Steel is real. While the ceramic is amazing in its own right - the dark rhodium of the movement doesn't really pop the right way against the black CE for me.

4-5 days a week on my wrist! Solely supplanted by a 15500OR or 15707CE.

macrowatch · 7 October 2021, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

Thanks so much guys for all your feedback, advice and opinion.

I must say I am quite surprised by the landslide in favor of the ST. I was expecting it to be more balanced.

Because of that I have to admit I am even more in doubt than before ;-). I was kinda leaning towards the CE but now... Guess I'll have a few drinks and sleep over it ;-)

I'm so jealous of your position and would not offer a useful opinion between the two since I can't even get offered a QP.

However, I would offer an observation that most of the votes to the steel are skewed towards not believing the CE allocation will come, and here only you know the spend history and how credible the 6 month offer is. I think if the pool were both were available today, you'd start seeing the poll skew the other way.

AperolSpritz · 7 October 2021, 07:26 PM

Thanks again all for the inputs

@ macrowatch - fair point but it seemed to me that a lot of people genuinely favored the ST's pure looks.

I have decided to take the leap of faith and go for the wait for the CE. I have a lot of steel ROs already and not in the mood to sell anything.

AP has always treated me well and there is no reason I wouldn't believe them. The 6 months has not been communicated as such, they told me next year and when I asked when next year they told me Q1.

I am certainly not the biggest spender but a local, regular and loyal customer who has been buying AP since when you were loosing 30% just by walking out the door (even on steel ROs) and have been offered regularly hot models that I have refused even if I could have flipped for 2x the money and make $100k same day so identified as a non flipper.

Been offered the white ceramic QP a few weeks ago

QP White2.jpg

I'll take my chances but I agree that it's not guaranteed and anything can happen in life.

rtanjaya · 7 October 2021, 09:09 PM

Wow congrats on the white QP! That's a grail even better than the skeleton ST/CE imo.

I think it's worth to wait for the ceramic skeleton if that's what you really truly want. Great choice!

AperolSpritz · 7 October 2021, 11:22 PM

Thanks but to be clear I passed on the white QP...
It was just to illustrate that I hope the promise of the CE is real.

The white QP is awesome but I couldn't see myself wearing it apart on week-ends and in the summer and I have a lot of such watches that I "can" only wear on we and vacation.

Will buy it one day but when I retire on a yacht ;-)

911AP · 8 October 2021, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

Thanks but to be clear I passed on the white QP...
It was just to illustrate that I hope the promise of the CE is real.

The white QP is awesome but I couldn't see myself wearing it apart on week-ends and in the summer and I have a lot of such watches that I "can" only wear on we and vacation.

Will buy it one day but when I retire on a yacht ;-)

What boutique is this?

HK Islandboy · 8 October 2021, 10:48 PM

The steel is amazing…but I love AP CE pieces. I’d wait

Watchristic · 10 October 2021, 03:04 AM

Good for you for following you heart and believing in your boutique to deliver. Having seen both in the metals it’s really difficult choice but I would go steel and save the ceramic allocation for a QP - nonetheless, you have an amazing piece coming Q1 next year

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AperolSpritz · 17 May 2022, 02:04 AM

Well so here we are - 1 month 1/2 after the end of Q1.

And still no 15416CE.

I feel a bit let down by AP. I understand this is not science. But the end of Q1 was a rather strong promise. At least that's how I interpreted it.

+ My SA left a month ago so I am a bit anxious other SAs will priorize their own clients. And am still in the dark as to who is taking care of me today.

Could I get back in time I would snap the 15407 in a flash.

Seems like good old sayings are good old for a reason... ;-) A bird in the hand...

Not completely losing hope but the wait is long and after a while the fund fades away.

View Poll Results: What would you guys do?
Seize the moment and get the 15407 - Steel is classic	100	64.94%
Wait for the black ceramic - it's sooo special... and prey	54	35.06%
Voters: 154. You may not vote on this poll

6 October 2021, 10:27 PM	#1
AperolSpritz "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Location: Around the World Posts: 349	AP RO Skeleton ST or CE? Hello all, I am in the middle of a dilemma. I had initially expressed interest for a 15407ST (like a year ago) along with a few other watches. In the meantime my interest in the same model in black ceramic grew (15416), and I mentioned that to my SA. Received a call this am from the boutique and they tell me a 15407ST is there waiting for me if I want to pull the trigger. I was told if I pass, the 15416CE could be here in c.6 months... But if I took the ST, then they wouldn't be able to allocate me a CE in the future. I like both. ST is a classic and steel really makes the bracelet shine but CE is special. What would you guys do?

7 October 2021, 04:26 AM	#18
Benzsiam 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: USA Watch: Rolex/AP/PP/ALS Posts: 5,921	Wow, I wish I have this problem. Both are gorgeous and I would get the first one that become available to me first. __________________ Rolex: 116621, 126333, 126711CHNR, 114060, 116500LN White, 126660 JC, 126710BLNR, 126710BLRO, 116610LV, 126610LN, 126610LV, 116508 YG Green Dial, 124300 Turquoise, 126719BLRO Meteorite dial, 228235 Olive dial ,126755SARU, 116505 RG Black dial, 326934 Blue Sky D. Audemars Piguet: 15451ST Blue, 15500OR w/Bracelet, 14790SA, 14790BA, 26022BC(Salmon) Patek Philippe: 5524R, 5712G, ALS: Time Zone 136.032, Cartier: WGSA0030, WSSA0061, YG Oct. 2965, Breguet: 7137BA, MontBlanc: 109996", Seiko: SRPA21,

7 October 2021, 01:54 PM	#22
sokoloka "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2017 Real Name: Eric Location: San Diego Watch: Audemars Piguet Posts: 1,547	Steel is real. While the ceramic is amazing in its own right - the dark rhodium of the movement doesn't really pop the right way against the black CE for me. 4-5 days a week on my wrist! Solely supplanted by a 15500OR or 15707CE. __________________ Instagram: @rough.af

10 October 2021, 03:04 AM	#29
Watchristic "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: USA Posts: 91	Good for you for following you heart and believing in your boutique to deliver. Having seen both in the metals it’s really difficult choice but I would go steel and save the ceramic allocation for a QP - nonetheless, you have an amazing piece coming Q1 next year Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ IG: https://www.instagram.com/watchristic/

6 October 2021, 10:30 PM	#2
supernova "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Europe/Asia Watch: AP/Rolex Posts: 1,276	The ST for me, especially since you can get right now at retail.

6 October 2021, 10:33 PM	#3
wb55 "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2016 Location: - Posts: 988	A bird in the hand...

6 October 2021, 10:39 PM	#4
AshAP "TRF" Member Join Date: Dec 2012 Real Name: Ash Location: UK Watch: AP Royal Oak Posts: 4,544	I genuinely prefer the steel. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

6 October 2021, 11:06 PM	#5
Reign "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2018 Location: USA Posts: 1,184	ST - is it more classic RO and the movement has more contrast Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

6 October 2021, 11:26 PM	#6
Becweb Banned Join Date: Dec 2019 Location: - Posts: 407	Steel for me please

7 October 2021, 12:12 AM	#7
kimwizzzuuu "TRF" Member Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: new york Posts: 372	i'd save the full ceramic opportunities for QP and Tourb.

7 October 2021, 12:36 AM	#9
Vince_76 "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Location: Orange County Posts: 1,602	What a great problem to have. Can’t go wrong. Guess it would depend on your current collection. Sounds like you’ve been having an increased affinity for the CE. If you have another steel RO I’d opt for ceramic here. But again, can’t go wrong.

7 October 2021, 12:59 AM	#10
TunaTuna 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Jun 2021 Location: Merica Posts: 1,310	I would get the one that trades higher over retail and makes the better investment. What you like is secondary

7 October 2021, 01:49 AM	#13
Waybach "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Real Name: Nico Location: Arizona Posts: 81	Steel for sure! I agree with Kimwizzzuuu, if you want ceramic then go for the QP.

7 October 2021, 01:54 AM	#14
watchucallit "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: San Fran Posts: 2,214	I personally prefer and like the ST.. I own one

7 October 2021, 02:58 AM	#16
huncho 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Oct 2017 Location: nyc Posts: 6,330	15407ST 100% for me

7 October 2021, 07:11 AM	#19
AperolSpritz "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Location: Around the World Posts: 349	Thanks so much guys for all your feedback, advice and opinion. I must say I am quite surprised by the landslide in favor of the ST. I was expecting it to be more balanced. Because of that I have to admit I am even more in doubt than before ;-). I was kinda leaning towards the CE but now... Guess I'll have a few drinks and sleep over it ;-)

7 October 2021, 12:27 PM	#20
kimwizzzuuu "TRF" Member Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: new york Posts: 372	Get whichever is available these days, you never know which vips or celebrities jump in front of your allocation.

7 October 2021, 01:27 PM	#21
911AP "TRF" Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: USA Posts: 445	I can't believe people are saying the steel over the ceramic. Do not listen. Get the ceramic. It's probably the hardest watch to get from AP right now and for the foreseeable future. It's probably one of the most unique APs next to the ceramic openwork perpetual. If they can guarantee you the CE in 6 months do not hesitate. But if you have any doubt about their ability to deliver, then go with the steel. While the steel 15407 is beautiful, the ceramic is just next level insanity.

7 October 2021, 07:26 PM	#24
AperolSpritz "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Location: Around the World Posts: 349	Thanks again all for the inputs @ macrowatch - fair point but it seemed to me that a lot of people genuinely favored the ST's pure looks. I have decided to take the leap of faith and go for the wait for the CE. I have a lot of steel ROs already and not in the mood to sell anything. AP has always treated me well and there is no reason I wouldn't believe them. The 6 months has not been communicated as such, they told me next year and when I asked when next year they told me Q1. I am certainly not the biggest spender but a local, regular and loyal customer who has been buying AP since when you were loosing 30% just by walking out the door (even on steel ROs) and have been offered regularly hot models that I have refused even if I could have flipped for 2x the money and make $100k same day so identified as a non flipper. Been offered the white ceramic QP a few weeks ago QP White2.jpg I'll take my chances but I agree that it's not guaranteed and anything can happen in life.

7 October 2021, 09:09 PM	#25
rtanjaya "TRF" Member Join Date: Sep 2019 Location: Singapore Watch: AP Posts: 232	Wow congrats on the white QP! That's a grail even better than the skeleton ST/CE imo. I think it's worth to wait for the ceramic skeleton if that's what you really truly want. Great choice!

7 October 2021, 11:22 PM	#26
AperolSpritz "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Location: Around the World Posts: 349	Thanks but to be clear I passed on the white QP... It was just to illustrate that I hope the promise of the CE is real. The white QP is awesome but I couldn't see myself wearing it apart on week-ends and in the summer and I have a lot of such watches that I "can" only wear on we and vacation. Will buy it one day but when I retire on a yacht ;-)

8 October 2021, 10:48 PM	#28
HK Islandboy "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2017 Location: Hong Kong Watch: AP Posts: 3,825	The steel is amazing…but I love AP CE pieces. I’d wait

17 May 2022, 02:04 AM	#30
AperolSpritz "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Location: Around the World Posts: 349	Well so here we are - 1 month 1/2 after the end of Q1. And still no 15416CE. I feel a bit let down by AP. I understand this is not science. But the end of Q1 was a rather strong promise. At least that's how I interpreted it. + My SA left a month ago so I am a bit anxious other SAs will priorize their own clients. And am still in the dark as to who is taking care of me today. Could I get back in time I would snap the 15407 in a flash. Seems like good old sayings are good old for a reason... ;-) A bird in the hand... Not completely losing hope but the wait is long and after a while the fund fades away.

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