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Old 17 May 2022, 10:53 AM   #31
srvrf
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The reality of the situation is that for the OP it is extremely unlikely for this to happen the way he would like. The fact that he has no current interest in buying any Pateks beyond the 5167 works against him. I'm somewhat in a similar situation trying to complete my "Trinity." I've got Pateks and an AP so I really only want one overseas. I've talked to VC, and despite my interest in watches and lack of flipping potential, there is no incentive for them to sell me an Overseas when others are more likely to buy multiple VCs. So the OP has to either (1) wait and hope that prices and availability improve, or (2) pay secondary market price for the 5167 you want, or (3) redirect focus to an obtainable watch.
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Old 17 May 2022, 11:47 AM   #32
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The reality of the situation is that for the OP it is extremely unlikely for this to happen the way he would like. The fact that he has no current interest in buying any Pateks beyond the 5167 works against him. I'm somewhat in a similar situation trying to complete my "Trinity." I've got Pateks and an AP so I really only want one overseas. I've talked to VC, and despite my interest in watches and lack of flipping potential, there is no incentive for them to sell me an Overseas when others are more likely to buy multiple VCs. So the OP has to either (1) wait and hope that prices and availability improve, or (2) pay secondary market price for the 5167 you want, or (3) redirect focus to an obtainable watch.
Well said. There was a time when you could walk into any Patek dealer or even just call and score a 5167. I've had them in my hand at least 3 times at a dealer and passed for various reasons. Those days are gone for now. Sorry man.

The good news is gray market prices are dropping and may keep dropping so save up. The 5167a is a perfect one watch collection.
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Old 17 May 2022, 12:48 PM   #33
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lol because they're bored and when you'er that rich sometimes you just dgaf?

Yeah I get like why would anyone trust me not to flip it tho. But I'm also KINDA rich and I don't need to jump through hoops for 50k. That said, I would feel like a dunce paying street prices when the brand new one from the dealer is so "cheap".
If you want a whale to help you, you better be good friends with them. If that doesn't work, befriend the AD owner's family member.

If not then to be honest. You say you're kinda rich, but you don't want to pay the street price (a price that you'll be able to get back if you wanted to sell it), then forget it. Find a different watch, or a different hobby. luxury watches are an expensive taste.
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Old 17 May 2022, 01:42 PM   #34
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If you want a whale to help you, you better be good friends with them. If that doesn't work, befriend the AD owner's family member.

If not then to be honest. You say you're kinda rich, but you don't want to pay the street price (a price that you'll be able to get back if you wanted to sell it), then forget it. Find a different watch, or a different hobby. luxury watches are an expensive taste.
Well I dont' want to sell it, that's the whole point.
MSRP: 20k
Grey: 80k

This is too big of a spread. It's PPP money or something. There's no logic. If I wanted to pay 80k for it, I'd go to an AD and buy 60k worth of watches, get on a list for the aquanaut, then sell the 60k watches. Or I'd link up with a whale and give him $30k as a finders fee and save $30k and some trouble. Both of those scenarios make more sense than buying a used $20k watch for $80k.

My honest theory is this is just PPP fraud money. Buy up watches, small, valuable, relatively fungible compared to art, can take out of country or stash 'em from the feds just in case.
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Old 17 May 2022, 02:08 PM   #35
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I don’t think spending $60k will get you on the list for an Aquanaut these days. As many others have said, just go gray when market prices reach a level you’re comfortable with.
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Old 17 May 2022, 02:24 PM   #36
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Well I dont' want to sell it, that's the whole point.
MSRP: 20k
Grey: 80k

This is too big of a spread. It's PPP money or something. There's no logic. If I wanted to pay 80k for it, I'd go to an AD and buy 60k worth of watches, get on a list for the aquanaut, then sell the 60k watches. Or I'd link up with a whale and give him $30k as a finders fee and save $30k and some trouble. Both of those scenarios make more sense than buying a used $20k watch for $80k.

My honest theory is this is just PPP fraud money. Buy up watches, small, valuable, relatively fungible compared to art, can take out of country or stash 'em from the feds just in case.
I wish it was this easy...the current requirements to even be considered for an Aquanaut or Nautilus (ambiguously stated to me by a Patek AD in a major US city) is purchasing at least 3 other pieces such as a calatrava, pilot TT, and complication. The problem is all of these pcs generally go for below retail on the secondary market, so it is not as easy as just buying a bunch of watches you don't want to own then simply selling them to recoup your funds.

In my opinion, it is a way for these dealers, and maybe even Patek themselves, to guarantee all of these other non-desirable models are still being purchased and not just wasting away in display cases.
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Old 17 May 2022, 02:25 PM   #37
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Well I dont' want to sell it, that's the whole point.
MSRP: 20k
Grey: 80k

This is too big of a spread. It's PPP money or something. There's no logic. If I wanted to pay 80k for it, I'd go to an AD and buy 60k worth of watches, get on a list for the aquanaut, then sell the 60k watches. Or I'd link up with a whale and give him $30k as a finders fee and save $30k and some trouble. Both of those scenarios make more sense than buying a used $20k watch for $80k.

My honest theory is this is just PPP fraud money. Buy up watches, small, valuable, relatively fungible compared to art, can take out of country or stash 'em from the feds just in case.
First of all, just like the comment above, buying 60k in watches will NOT get you on a list for an aquanaut.
Secondly, if you were to get a random whale to help you find this watch, that AD is most likely selling to the whale, and not you. Him/her handing the watch to you is essentially "flipping" a watch, that means this whale can't be random, and must be a very close friend that trusts you.

Lastly, most of us here are trying to give you very sound advice, yet you keep giving the vibes that you know better.
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Old 17 May 2022, 03:19 PM   #38
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Clueless.
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Old 17 May 2022, 03:30 PM   #39
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Can someone tell me how...

I enjoy reading this thread very much 🫢. To the OP, I must say go grey and wait till it reach your comfy price. I think no matter how hard you argue, it won’t change the fact that this model is one of the most desirable pieces in the world and lots of other people with way more purchase history etc etc would be considered first before guys like you.

Another alternative is go for neo-vintage ones, which is my personal route. I like them more compared to the modern pieces, such as Nautilus 3800 compared to the 5711/5800, Royal oak 14790 compared to the 15300/15400/15450/15500, or first Gen overseas (42040/42042/42050/42052) compared to the current 4500V. For Aquanauts, I honesty like 5060/5065/5066 compared to the newer 5167, but that’s my personal taste. In terms of price, the neo-vintage aquanauts I mention is below the 5167 secondary market price. For example, fullset 5066 goes for ard 37.5k usd, whereas 5060 is ard 45k usd at my area.

Goodluck!


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Old 17 May 2022, 03:47 PM   #40
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lol because they're bored and when you'er that rich sometimes you just dgaf?

Yeah I get like why would anyone trust me not to flip it tho. But I'm also KINDA rich and I don't need to jump through hoops for 50k. That said, I would feel like a dunce paying street prices when the brand new one from the dealer is so "cheap".
Yes. People who are that rich usually give away tens of thousands of $ in equity to internet strangers for shits and giggles. Does that sound reasonable to you? In this case they would also put their own AD pipeline at risk, contingent on nothing but your word that you won’t flip. I wouldn’t trust you simply based on the merits of the case, nothing against you personally. If $60K is too much of a grey market premium to pay then a potential $60K profit is likely too juicy to resist as well.

Consider a hypothetical blue collar dude who saved for years and just barely scraped together enough to get a Submariner at MSRP for his 50th birthday. With no intention of or interest in buying anything else, now or in the future. Nothing wrong with being that guy, but why tf would any dealer contemplate selling to that guy instead of someone who’s a likely repeat customer?

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I'm not really like 8 million other people. I want one watch and it's impossible to get it because all these grey dealers somehow scoop them all up.
You’re a ”KINDA rich” 30-something in NYC who lusts after the most hyped watch in the $20K MSRP segment. I’d say you’re exactly like 8 million other people. Or at least so many that neither PP or ADs will entertain the thought of having you as a client unless you have something else going for you (Celebrity, personal/family connections etc). People who want the cheapest steel sport Patek and nothing else are dime a dozen. If you don’t like anything else in their collections then you’re not their target customer. Go grey.
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Old 17 May 2022, 03:48 PM   #41
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Can someone tell me how...

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The Overseas is okay. The Royal Oak is not cool, and AP is the worst retail experience in the universe.

I'm not really like 8 million other people. I want one watch and it's impossible to get it because all these grey dealers somehow scoop them all up.

I think most big name watches will eventually become so associated with hype that there will be an inversion in what's fashionable. The Submariner is already getting to be embarassing to be seen wearing. I just don't like waiting I guess.

And i have a sub 14060m, never feel embarassed once in my life wearing it #sorrynotsorry


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Old 17 May 2022, 03:53 PM   #42
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What city do you live? I'm in NYC. Walk into Wempe they literally have no watches except their own brand and some JLCs literally no one wants. I don't understand how anyone is supposed to "build history" or whatever with a dealer when there isn't anything to buy. I would buy a rolex OP if it was 3 years ago...but now even those are extinct.

I'm not buying a Panerai on the HOPE I can get on a list. It's insane.
they have the watch, they are not selling to you.
there are collectors who routinely spend 5-10MM a year every year. they call and nautilus or aquanaut are delivered to them. they don't even bother going to the store.
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Old 17 May 2022, 04:01 PM   #43
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This thread is honestly so fun to read .

I think its just a fact right now that if you want to get a steel AND sports model Patek for retail you must have a long buying history or just go grey simple as that. No random "Whale" would just risk their reputation for you that's just a fantasy.

Its just a reality that Op must accept.

3 options

1. Start building a relationship with a Patek AD

2. Go grey

3. Go for another watch that doesn't have extremely high demand
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Old 17 May 2022, 05:00 PM   #44
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You just don’t get it. You like one of the most sought after (if not the most) watch in the world. Time to accept it and move on. I like many things in life that I can’t have and I am okay with it. Maybe put it in the back burner for now, it might come down to $40k just like before all this craze or you make more money that you can just buy it from resellers.
Yeah, i'd agree with this.

And to quote another point you've made, go get richer as rich people DFAF... then you won't mind spending the money on grey as I think that's going to be the only way you'll get one given the current market.

Think of it this way, you pay grey because it's the only watch you want. It doesn't matter in the long run as you'll get that money back when you sell it. You state that you want to wear it etc. etc. so what you pay doesn't actually matter, getting it cheap only matters if you want to flip it.

I think some of the heat you're gonna get on here is down to the fact that you might be the 1m person who's posted this sort of question and you can search for all this content in the forum already so it's a bit lazy.
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Old 17 May 2022, 07:39 PM   #45
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...

I think most big name watches will eventually become so associated with hype that there will be an inversion in what's fashionable. The Submariner is already getting to be embarassing to be seen wearing. I just don't like waiting I guess.
Says the guy who wants a 5167A and has just discovered they are hard to get.

No doubt, the most hyped stuff often goes out of fashion the hardest. Yet you desire one of the hottest watches on the planet...

The Submariner is a poor example BTW. For one, it has never been that hyped. It is far from the 5167A in that respect. Also, the Submariner looked just as silly on the wrists of young kids out of college toiling in a cubicle some 20 years ago as it does today. Even more so when worn with a suit. Nothing new there. But I totally see why people continue to like the watch and why it has been getting lots of love over the decades.
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Old 17 May 2022, 08:32 PM   #46
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Says the guy who wants a 5167A and has just discovered they are hard to get.

No doubt, the most hyped stuff often goes out of fashion the hardest. Yet you desire one of the hottest watches on the planet...

The Submariner is a poor example BTW. For one, it has never been that hyped. It is far from the 5167A in that respect. Also, the Submariner looked just as silly on the wrists of young kids out of college toiling in a cubicle some 20 years ago as it does today. Even more so when worn with a suit. Nothing new there. But I totally see why people continue to like the watch and why it has been getting lots of love over the decades.
I do think an Aquanaut may go out of fashion faster than a Submariner. So OP better not be feeling embarrassed when that day arrives!
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Old 17 May 2022, 08:36 PM   #47
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I feel sorry for new watch enthusiasts.
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Old 17 May 2022, 08:45 PM   #48
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Secondary market is the only way unfortunately.

You can still go in and chat with a Patek AD, but the results should not be any different than others. There a lot of people in the same situation as you.

Timing is everything, just like everything in life.
Was gonna say timing as well, as you know before watches took off as an asset class a few years ago, SS Rolexes and indeed plentiful 5164s and some 5167s were there for the taking in AD displays but those days are long over. I would not turn my nose at the new VCO, esp the sumptuous blue dial, they also come on rubber and leather straps and are very high quality pieces and certainly more ornate and intricate than a basic Aqua.
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Old 17 May 2022, 09:00 PM   #49
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I feel sorry for new watch enthusiasts.
Agreed and I have been trying to say this but it is like yelling into the void.

The other really frustrating point is that few people want to examine this hobby for what it is. They focus on a specific brand/model and decide they must have it or else.

I am close to being done.
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Old 17 May 2022, 10:07 PM   #50
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Here you go, save yourself some $$$ and, from the right distance, with the right lense flair, with the right sunlight, you'll be able to make people think you're wearing a 5167a!

And for the best part... it's in stock today and you can just buy it online!

https://www.piaget.com/gb-en/watches...watch-g0a47014
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Old 17 May 2022, 10:24 PM   #51
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Unless you know someone absolutely loaded or famous and can call in a favor you need to pay 70k grey or fly a kite. No stranger would ever give you 60k and simultaneously almost guarantee tarnishing their reputation with their AD.

This wasn’t all that uncommon 5 years ago but that was a far different time.

I would just wait and see if the market continues to trend downhill. Maybe it falls into a range you’re comfortable with. FWIW I sold my 5167 for 14500 about 6 years ago lol there’s some perspective.
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Old 17 May 2022, 10:29 PM   #52
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Here you go, save yourself some $$$ and, from the right distance, with the right lense flair, with the right sunlight, you'll be able to make people think you're wearing a 5167a!

And for the best part... it's in stock today and you can just buy it online!

https://www.piaget.com/gb-en/watches...watch-g0a47014
I was gonna say, I saw this the other day and from afar, it looks just like an aquanaut.
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Old 17 May 2022, 10:36 PM   #53
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The advice on this thread is 100% spot on, but I am empathetic to folks unfamiliar with the current buying dynamics being incredulous about the situation and moving through the stages of grief (shock, anger, acceptance) as they come to understand things. The situation is nuts!

Personally, I am in midst of a multi-year Patek collecting journey that involves ~7 watches I want in my collection, including a 2 Calatravas, 1 annual calendar, 1 perpetual calendar, 1 world timer, 1 nautilus, and 1 minute repeater. I have these acquisitions roughly sketched out with my AD on a decade-long timeline. I say roughly because we don’t know what will be in production when things become available for me! This also takes planning since a couple of these are application pieces (the AD has to make an application for me specifically to Patek - a step beyond « allocation » pieces, which the AD controls).

My assumption is that I’m a good customer - passionate about the brand, friendly when I visit, etc. - but also small fry in the scheme of things. I’m not a whale by any stretch of the imagination, just an enthusiast who spends too much money on watches and who loves PP.

They tell me that they will allocate an Aquanaut to me, and that they will likely be in a position to do that within the next year; for the Nautilus, I expect a multi-year wait and, frankly, wouldn’t be surprised if it never happens. My assumption is that they get only a few pieces of these sports models a year, and then have to allocate them among the dozens of folks who are just like me, collectors with multi-year collecting plans in process.

If you’re one and done with Patek, the grey market is a fabulous option to get the watch you want without being a long term collector. You have to pay the market price for skipping the line, so to speak, but that is an option. The other option is a market crash, which frankly would be a good thing for me and folks like the OP. I collect because I love the watches, and don’t like the aftermarket hype, so a crash wouldn’t hurt me, and I would be happy to see others get the one Patek they love and enjoy it!
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Old 17 May 2022, 10:57 PM   #54
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P.S. If I were in the OP’s position, and thinking about another brand that has similar panache to PP and the Aquanaut (brand, build quality, originality) I’d take a look at Bulgari. I stopped by the Bulgari boutique last week to see some of their watches in person (for the first time ever).

I came away impressed and thinking about adding an Octo Finissimo to the collection. I’d put it on par with Patek and AP and I was thrilled to be able to try on multiple models at one time.
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Old 18 May 2022, 01:10 AM   #55
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Sorry, but the 5167 is really not worth the pre-owned price, despite robust aftermarket sales. So much more out there at that price range you should explore.
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Old 18 May 2022, 02:42 AM   #56
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Hi! I'm glad there's this subforum here, because the watch I always wanted is the 5167A. It's crazy because I have been working a lot and I saved a lot and did really well and finally felt like I could splurge and then.....BOOM....what is going on? Is this all PPP loan fraud or what is happening?

I, frankly, don't want to "build a relationship" with a dealer. I know that sounds awful but I only want the ONE watch! I'm under 40, just started making good money in the past 5 years, and now I'm walking into ADs and they don't even make eye contact with me. I stopped into a Vacheron botique in NYC (my location) and they were SUPER nice and respectful but I don't really like their watches except I guess the Overseas, but that's one where they basically recoil in horror if you mention it to them. The AP botique is a joke and made me basically hate the brand even tho they have some cool vintage ultrathin stuff. Super snobby and gross.

I just want the 5167A and I wanted it for ages...... ugh. If I'm priced out forever now, it's gonna be sort of the end of watches for me. I collect dinky stuff that I take apart and modify, but I'm not gonna buy 10 JLCs to get on a list. It's just dumb. Rolex is unreal! I remember when you could walk in and buy a sub for like $6k. I made like $15k that year, so it wasn't an option, but I remember it haha.

Any of you whales wanna help me out on a hookup? Think of it as charity!
Bro you making good money? Just wait and save more and 5167 will be yours fresh in grey market
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Old 18 May 2022, 03:15 AM   #57
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This thread cracks me up. Also, some of you need to understand that not wanting to go grey when the prices are so high isn't a "We can't afford it thing". It's a decision based on principal. If I wanted a 5212A bad enough (my "I can't have watch") I'd go pay the 50k or whatever it costs now. But I refuse to pay over market, it's just not worth it to me. Everyone makes their own decisions.
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Old 18 May 2022, 03:36 AM   #58
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Was gonna say timing as well, as you know before watches took off as an asset class a few years ago, SS Rolexes and indeed plentiful 5164s and some 5167s were there for the taking in AD displays but those days are long over. I would not turn my nose at the new VCO, esp the sumptuous blue dial, they also come on rubber and leather straps and are very high quality pieces and certainly more ornate and intricate than a basic Aqua.
100%. I remember when I first started this hobby (2016/2017) and everything was easy to relatively easy to get. And lots of people including myself didn't want to even pay those prices.

In Canadian dollars I remember passing on 5167 for like $24k, 15202 for $30k, 5711 for $60k, and the list goes on.

Timing and everything is so important. I elected to go for 15400 at $16k CAD and I thought I was crazy spending so much money on a watch. Now I wouldn't even blink. Keep in mind I can easily buy a BNIB Sub for $8k or used one for like $6k back then as well haha.

Yes! VCO gorgeous. I mean even last year before the full craze, I could have gotten a blue one at MSRP, but I wasn't too interested then. Ooops... again... timing!

Sometimes, when even the opportunity comes up. You start thinking twice.

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Old 18 May 2022, 03:53 AM   #59
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My honest theory is this is just PPP fraud money. Buy up watches, small, valuable, relatively fungible compared to art, can take out of country or stash 'em from the feds just in case.
Clueless. This started way before covid.

How rich are you btw?
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Old 18 May 2022, 06:29 AM   #60
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Well I dont' want to sell it, that's the whole point.
MSRP: 20k
Grey: 80k

This is too big of a spread. It's PPP money or something. There's no logic. If I wanted to pay 80k for it, I'd go to an AD and buy 60k worth of watches, get on a list for the aquanaut, then sell the 60k watches. Or I'd link up with a whale and give him $30k as a finders fee and save $30k and some trouble. Both of those scenarios make more sense than buying a used $20k watch for $80k.

My honest theory is this is just PPP fraud money. Buy up watches, small, valuable, relatively fungible compared to art, can take out of country or stash 'em from the feds just in case.

Neither of those strategies will ever work.
Seriously, just give up. It’s just a watch and not worth it. Or pay market rate.
Also, your posting on a forum of long time watch collectors and enthusiasts. Careful about lobbing things like “fraud” around when you have no idea what you are talking about. And bragging that you are rich? C’mon man, nobody cares. And remember it’s all relative.


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