The stock market made me hit the pause button

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

I am not buying toys when I am hemorrhaging money. I have a brain.

Good time to reevaluate your portfolio...maybe diversify a little more?

[Lew Archer]

Originally Posted by BillA

I almost pulled the trigger on a 5-digit serial watch a few weeks ago.
Felt it was a decent price.
Then the market started to really tank.
In reality I don’t keep my watch purchase money in the stock market but with the market tanking and our personal investments or retirement monies taking a bath, doesn’t it cause you to pause before spending multiples over msrp at the grey dealer?
I think the AD’s will be fine, they are selling at msrp (I hope), but greys sales volumes must be way off. Perhaps more of us will get a call from our AD to come pick up a watch, perhaps wishful thinking..

I've never purchased a watch from a "grey" dealer. Back when grey offered discounts in price, rather than acquisition time, I opted to go the AD route. In those days, that assured me that the product was authentic, and I'd get the benefit of the warranty, which didn't follow the watch back then. And, I rather liked the experience of walking into a shop, trying on a watch, discussing it with the sales person, perhaps buying it, or handing it back to "think about".

That approach, applied over the years, happened to pay an unexpected dividend when times changed and the price discount was MSRP and people went grey to acquire a piece in a more favorable timeframe. By that point, I had established a good rapport with a specific AD, and with various sales associates in that store, who tended to stay there. So, I've been fortunate to be able to get the watches I wanted in reasonable time frames from an AD, including ceramic Daytona when they first came out. Dumb luck, really. If I'd been a bargain hunter when I first started buying watches, I wouldn't have that track record with an AD now.

Anyhow, I would not, regardless of market fluctuation, seek to buy a watch from a grey dealer at a price over MSRP...because there isn't a watch I want badly enough to pay such a premium for. Last year, I expressed interest in a new 36mm Explorer with my usual AD. They came through within about three months. But, if that watch never turned up, I still wouldn't have gone the grey route...because I didn't want the Explorer badly enough to pay, say, $10,000 to get one NOW. I have more time than money! (God willing, I should say).

The exception would be a discontinued model, no longer available at an AD (I remember when you could actually get a discount in an AD on "new old stock"--I passed on a 36mm Explorer offered at a slight discount in a Santa Barbara AD when the first 39mm versions came out and no one wanted the "old" model).

If there was a specific reference I just had to have, and it couldn't be had at an AD, then I'd start looking at grey dealers.

If that were the case, though, I'd hesitate to buy now. The grey dealer prices seem to be wobbling and, if I were in the market for a watch available only via a secondary dealer, or private seller, I'd be inclined to pause now and see how things go.

And, like everyone else, the market volatility and recession talk does make me think it's a moment to throttle back on luxury purchases and see what develops.

A long winded response, so if you've read this far, thanks for being patient.

[Asumer]

I've been waiting for a time like this, pretty much 100% cash as I knew things were getting crazy at the end of the year. When watch prices sink as I know they will in 3-5 months my patience will be rewarded with getting the watch I want at a decent price and not 200-300 percent markup.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by WilsdorfNDavis

Good time to reevaluate your portfolio...maybe diversify a little more?

Laughable


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[Flintstone]

The stock market is the long game. You may feel like you are for the poorer, but over a 10 year period you will most likely be much further ahead. I believe it’s best not to look at your statements and just live your life to your fullest contentment

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Flintstone

The stock market is the long game. You may feel like you are for the poorer, but over a 10 year period you will most likely be much further ahead. I believe it’s best not to look at your statements and just live your life to your fullest contentment

It depends. If you’re 45, then yes. If you’re 65, then maybe not.


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[jarecki]

I love this post! What I’m hoping for is more and more people get second thoughts, and start putting off any watch purchases. That would make the waiting lists shorter…

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by Flintstone

The stock market is the long game. You may feel like you are for the poorer, but over a 10 year period you will most likely be much further ahead. I believe it’s best not to look at your statements and just live your life to your fullest contentment

This is the best comment!

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Krash

It depends. If you’re 45, then yes. If you’re 65, then maybe not.


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I think that's what wilsdorf was getting at. My generic diversified portfolio is down 13%. Not a big deal.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Krash

Nobody on this thread said anything about watches being a part of their investment portfolio. Nobody on this thread said anything about selling stock to buy a watch.

Very simple: Since the stock market is crashing, some people are saying they don’t feel comfortable buying a watch when their overall net worth is declining. This is a wise decision.

It’s not any more difficult than that. I’m not sure why people are interpreting it any different than that.


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1. You are correct that the dreaded watches as an investment phrase is not on this thread. However, the reality, is that people on this forum post repeatedly about watches as an investment. Which is the best reference to hold or increase value? Which one should I buy that will go up? It has become one of the biggest points of discussion on this forum, second now only to speculation of watch prices dropping the perceived gross unfairness of not being able to buy said hot references at MSRP on demand.

2. My post says nothing about people selling stock to buy a watch.

If people are rethinking all luxury purchases, including vacations, because the market is down and hence their net worth, I have no quarrel with that. Who could quarrel with that?

[RUSH2689]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

This is probably the dumbest thing I've read on the main forum in quite awhile.

[SUPERDOC]

This thread is a little bit like that game "Grapevine"

I can't believe how completely off the mark the responses have been.
It is a masterclass example of projection - I think many have made their own Stocks = watches = investing connection and run wild with that idea that they've infused with their own thoughts and frames of reference.

Basically - the OP is saying that when one's mood is down - you don't feel like celebrating - Buying watches are usually celebratory events...

I feel the same way - my "blow money fund" is not affected in any way by the market, the market portfolio itself s nothing that I even should look at for another 20 years - and the rolling contributions will invariably lead to buying the dip in some form... that money is just numbers on a screen for many of us... it might as well be a score on a video game, because one's life generally isn't affected in any practical sense... BUT ... when that number is down... it does have a psychological impact.

We are talking about emotional objects.. don't try to give a rational explanation that the emotion you feel from net worth drop shouldn't affect things because it's all long game.. (those are things we will tell ourselves when the opportunity to buy a grail comes up despite the net worth dip)...

The wipe out of previous gains does hurt my psyche - even if it doesn't affect my cash flow...

I agree with the OP - When I see all of that Red on the screen...I just don't feel in the mood - I suspect he's just saying the same thing... he didn't say that the market dip means he no longer has the funds... and he wasn't speaking of the "watch Market"..

I would wager that more than most who would spend somewhat freely in a bull market, would be more conservative in a bear market - even though their actual cash flow isn't affected...

Anyway - the train seems to have left the rails... at least it didn't turn into a Rolex Market discussion.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

This thread is a little bit like that game "Grapevine"

I can't believe how completely off the mark the responses have been.
It is a masterclass example of projection - I think many have made their own Stocks = watches = investing connection and run wild with that idea that they've infused with their own thoughts and frames of reference.

Basically - the OP is saying that when one's mood is down - you don't feel like celebrating - Buying watches are usually celebratory events...

I feel the same way - my "blow money fund" is not affected in any way by the market, the market portfolio itself s nothing that I even should look at for another 20 years - and the rolling contributions will invariably lead to buying the dip in some form... that money is just numbers on a screen for many of us... it might as well be a score on a video game, because one's life generally isn't affected in any practical sense... BUT ... when that number is down... it does have a psychological impact.

We are talking about emotional objects.. don't try to give a rational explanation that the emotion you feel from net worth drop shouldn't affect things because it's all long game.. (those are things we will tell ourselves when the opportunity to buy a grail comes up despite the net worth dip)...

The wipe out of previous gains does hurt my psyche - even if it doesn't affect my cash flow...

I agree with the OP - When I see all of that Red on the screen...I just don't feel in the mood - I suspect he's just saying the same thing... he didn't say that the market dip means he no longer has the funds... and he wasn't speaking of the "watch Market"..

I would wager that more than most who would spend somewhat freely in a bull market, would be more conservative in a bear market - even though their actual cash flow isn't affected...

Anyway - the train seems to have left the rails... at least it didn't turn into a Rolex Market discussion.

Great display of comprehension (something that is lacking these days on the forum) and solid input.

To the OP. In practice, I tell myself I can’t afford preowned watch prices already even before current events. I’m also not currently looking to buy any Rolex. However I was thinking of getting a different toy which I have since put on hold. Now with more than half my long term portfolio in the gutter or breaking even, it does affect unnecessary spending even though I am not planning on cashing it out anytime soon.

[Alex369]

Originally Posted by WilsdorfNDavis

Good time to reevaluate your portfolio...maybe diversify a little more?

Right...the ENTIRE market is down...

[Alex369]

Originally Posted by Krash

Laughable


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exactly

[TexEd]

Originally Posted by Alex369

Right...the ENTIRE market is down...

In mutual funds those oil related and commodity funds have done well. Everything else, yes, are down substantially.

[fskywalker]

Not buying over retail so little effect on the market ups and downs in my case


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[Peanut1pool]

Originally Posted by Adam84

In fairness its not just America, the UK is pretty rocky, as is Europe....infact most parts of the world are feeling it.

I always thought the UK was in Europe.

[CanPam]

Have you ever heard the word "Brexit"?

Originally Posted by Peanut1pool

I always thought the UK was in Europe.

[watchgirl2022]

totally agree with your sentiment. I was quoted a 70% percent markup on a DJ 36 and was nearly crazy enough to go through with it until I got educated on AD's and MSRP's. Ended up getting the watch through an AD and do not regret it, despite the wait.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by THC

There is simply nothing good going on right now in America, economically speaking.

I guess it's relative to where in America.

I was just in SFL. Couldn't see any appreciable impact from any economic issues.

Gas is the highest I have ever seen it: Roads were PACKED as always. Highways, surface streets....packed packed packed.

Went to a few upper end restaurants: Also packed. Some had no reservations available..on a weeknight..lol

Mall? Malls are supposed to be dead right? NOPE. PACKED with shoppers. Lines outside luxury stores.

Construction is still booming. Custom Homes, Tract Homes, Multi-family...no hesitation at all.

It's just different now. Bad economic "news" all over the place. Costs are certainly up up and away, but in some places, it doesn't seem to matter.


So...Buy the ROLEX....STONKS GO UP!

[DoDe]

Originally Posted by CanPam

Have you ever heard the word "Brexit"?

[temporarychicken]

Same in the UK. The media is telling us the economy is effectively crashing, but my eyes are telling me that it's roaring.

Traffic on roads is massive. Shop footfall is massive, trains packed.. etc.

[tudk]

Yawn

[seand442]

Originally Posted by THC

There is simply nothing good going on right now in America, economically speaking.

Hell, let’s be honest. There’s simply nothing good going on right now in America, period.

[SS Oyster]

The Calvary is coming in six months and then again in 30 months.


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[lear60man]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

I am not buying toys when I am hemorrhaging money. I have a brain.

Anyone who kept their head above water after 2008 learned the above lesson. Luxury watches are not the things to be buying when the markets are tanking and we are not alone in that thinking.

[lear60man]

Originally Posted by allen993

I agree completely with the OP. While I too, do not use stock market funds for luxury purchases, I DO adjust my luxury spending when my portfolio takes the kind of drop it currently is taking. I started searching for a boat about a year ago. I have put that search on hold due to the stock market. IMO...current economic conditions are bad, and only gonna worse. So for me, I'm gonna hold off on any luxury or any large purchases, and hold on to my cash for a while.

Naw....a good boat will feed your soul. Besides, if you hold off for a few months, youll probably save a ton.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

Same in the UK. The media is telling us the economy is effectively crashing, but my eyes are telling me that it's roaring.

Traffic on roads is massive. Shop footfall is massive, trains packed.. etc.

Yep. It's like the economic news is from a different planet...

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by Peanut1pool

I always thought the UK was in Europe.

It is, bad wording on my part, i meant the uk as well as the whole of europe.