- Limited Time - Summer Sale from HQ Milton!

[mountainjogger]

That was the title of the email I got this morning.

HQ has a great rep. But the sale prices are not enough to motivate me.

Thoughts?

[ExplorerI]

Need another 20% to be competitive.

[brandrea]

I’ve been looking at 5 digits again lately …. I may have missed the boat

[330ci]

Jacek sourced the good stuff, haven't looked at their site since his departure

[ExplorerI]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I’ve been looking at 5 digits again lately …. I may have missed the boat

Been looking at 5 digit sea dwellers and gmts. Prices really don’t seem to be coming down on those though.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I’ve been looking at 5 digits again lately …. I may have missed the boat

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

Been looking at 5 digit sea dwellers and gmts. Prices really don’t seem to be coming down on those though.

Same ... GMT's are holding steady from what I'm seeing

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[1William]

Still high enough to leave me out.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Same ... GMT's are holding steady from what I'm seeing

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

Sadly, yes.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

Been looking at 5 digit sea dwellers and gmts. Prices really don’t seem to be coming down on those though.

What do you think will happen? I go the feeling 16700s/16710s will go down, hopefully 12k and lower again. It was riding the wave of the current ceramic pepsi way too hard. Current pepsi goes down, those neo-vintage/modern ones have to go down as well.

[JBZ]

My completely non-scientific, anecdotal observations.

Prices on modern (six digit) Rolex seem to be coming down, in some cases by significant percentages. Though they were so high to begin with they're still pretty high.

As others have said, prices on five digit models (GMT, Sub, SD, Exp II) appear to be holding steady, or maybe coming down just a bit (a few hundred dollars).

The one "non-modern" model that seems to be coming down a little bit more is the 14270/114270 Explorer.

But it's early yet - I guess it depends on what happens with the economy over the long haul.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

What do you think will happen? I go the feeling 16700s/16710s will go down, hopefully 12k and lower again. It was riding the wave of the current ceramic pepsi way too hard. Current pepsi goes down, those neo-vintage/modern ones have to go down as well.

Agree. But not sure they have as far to fall as the modern references.

[Dan S]

A great example of a desirable reference will always be in demand, but in general it's not a great time to be selling vintage Rolex. Less desirable examples and references are taking a substantial hit. For example, I have seen some nice 4-digit DJs go at shockingly low prices in recent auctions. I expect that prices for 34mm references will plummet. For the more desirable sport references, however, I think asking prices will be sticky and the market will be slow. Dealers paid high prices for many of their watches, and low prices won't motivate collectors to sell.

Interestingly, I am still seeing significant price growth in vintage watches from other ("lesser") brands. This is just speculation, but it seems to me that the high prices of vintage Rolex in recent years (driven largely by first-time buyers and speculators late to the party, IMO) led many long-time collectors to explore alternative brands and directions to satisfy their buy/sell/trade itch at less-than-5-figure prices. Personally, I have had a lot of fun with IWC, Eterna, Longines, Omega, Seiko, and even Citizen over the past couple of years. And after educating myself more about those brands, I'm not going to stop collecting them. I know this may sound like a silly comparison, but vintage Seiko prices are on a rocket, even with the extremely weak Yen.

[Goin2drt]

The ones I want are all holding still.

[11b1p]

If you want to have a good laugh or cry, scroll this forums sales page from oldest to newest. Pretty surreal seeing some be told that $3500 is too high for a 5 digit GMT.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Dan S

A great example of a desirable reference will always be in demand, but in general it's not a great time to be selling vintage Rolex. Less desirable examples and references are taking a substantial hit. For example, I have seen some nice 4-digit DJs go at shockingly low prices in recent auctions. I expect that prices for 34mm references will plummet. For the more desirable sport references, however, I think asking prices will be sticky and the market will be slow. Dealers paid high prices for many of their watches, and low prices won't motivate collectors to sell.

Interestingly, I am still seeing significant price growth in vintage watches from other ("lesser") brands. This is just speculation, but it seems to me that the high prices of vintage Rolex in recent years (driven largely by first-time buyers and speculators late to the party, IMO) led many long-time collectors to explore alternative brands and directions to satisfy their buy/sell/trade itch at less-than-5-figure prices. Personally, I have had a lot of fun with IWC, Eterna, Longines, Omega, Seiko, and even Citizen over the past couple of years. And after educating myself more about those brands, I'm not going to stop collecting them. I know this may sound like a silly comparison, but vintage Seiko prices are on a rocket, even with the extremely weak Yen.

Interesting Dan. Where do you see the 4 and 5 digit subs and GMT's going?

[Dan S]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Interesting Dan. Where do you see the 4 and 5 digit subs and GMT's going?

I have no crystal ball, but if I had to guess, I would say that the desirable 4-digit references will be stagnant for a while and we won't see many nice pieces coming to market. In principle, the stock market situation could motivate some people to sell watches instead of stocks, but I'm skeptical that will be a major factor. The 5-digit references could drop slightly as people are able to find newer models.

[rootbeer7]

Originally Posted by Dan S

A great example of a desirable reference will always be in demand, but in general it's not a great time to be selling vintage Rolex. Less desirable examples and references are taking a substantial hit. For example, I have seen some nice 4-digit DJs go at shockingly low prices in recent auctions. I expect that prices for 34mm references will plummet. For the more desirable sport references, however, I think asking prices will be sticky and the market will be slow. Dealers paid high prices for many of their watches, and low prices won't motivate collectors to sell.

Interestingly, I am still seeing significant price growth in vintage watches from other ("lesser") brands. This is just speculation, but it seems to me that the high prices of vintage Rolex in recent years (driven largely by first-time buyers and speculators late to the party, IMO) led many long-time collectors to explore alternative brands and directions to satisfy their buy/sell/trade itch at less-than-5-figure prices. Personally, I have had a lot of fun with IWC, Eterna, Longines, Omega, Seiko, and even Citizen over the past couple of years. And after educating myself more about those brands, I'm not going to stop collecting them. I know this may sound like a silly comparison, but vintage Seiko prices are on a rocket, even with the extremely weak Yen.

Agreed.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Dan S

I have no crystal ball, but if I had to guess, I would say that the desirable 4-digit references will be stagnant for a while and we won't see many nice pieces coming to market. In principle, the stock market situation could motivate some people to sell watches instead of stocks, but I'm skeptical that will be a major factor. The 5-digit references could drop slightly as people are able to find newer models.

Thanks.

[TuRo]

[QUOTE=Wahlberg;12177510]What do you think will happen? I go the feeling 16700s/16710s will go down, hopefully 12k and lower again. It was riding the wave of the current ceramic pepsi way too hard. Current pepsi goes down, those neo-vintage/modern ones have to go down as well.[/QUO

Indeed - The increases in prices of the last of the classic cased pieces have been fuelled by a huge number of substitution purchases in the main by newbies. All will get hit but the current models hardest, then neo-vintage or 'classic cases' like 14060/16710/16610 then 5513/1680/1665 and the least hit will be the rare 37mm subs, 6542, JCK's, 60s milgauss etc etc ...just like the vintage guitar and car re-correction of 2013 and 2018 which followed the same tapering pattern based on rareity and primarily collector (not every-day-jonny investor) demand.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Dan S

For example, I have seen some nice 4-digit DJs go at shockingly low prices in recent auctions.

Do you have an example/link? Would love to see those.

[jaySL350]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

What do you think will happen? I go the feeling 16700s/16710s will go down, hopefully 12k and lower again. It was riding the wave of the current ceramic pepsi way too hard. Current pepsi goes down, those neo-vintage/modern ones have to go down as well.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the 16710s in the U.K. and the price seems a bit “ all over the place” at the moment,,,
Reputable long term grays have them between £10k-£14k and they don’t seem to be moving,,,,,

[Dan S]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Do you have an example/link? Would love to see those.

I'll post them when I'm finished buying. But I will say that I'm not talking about eBay. It's gotten almost impossible to find anything decent there, just a needle in a haystack and maybe not even worth my time anymore.

[AJMarcus]

Prices still inflated. Just a teaser but not nearly enough to motivate me.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by jaySL350

I’ve been keeping an eye on the 16710s in the U.K. and the price seems a bit “ all over the place” at the moment,,,
Reputable long term grays have them between £10k-£14k and they don’t seem to be moving,,,,,

That's the thing I've noticed as well. I see tons of them at those prices and a lot of them are sitting. If they aren't moving at 14k they should lower their prices but that hasn't happen in over 1 year.

[jaySL350]

There was a lovely early 16710 in Norwich,,long term bricks and mortar ,,
No papers but a lovely watch and that was a tad over £10k but I think he would have taken a good offer,,
it’s the SEL ,full sets that seem to be the highest ( not including the odd NOS) but again it seems they are not moving ,,,
likelihood that they will need to lower there prices especially after summer,,,

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

Been looking at 5 digit sea dwellers and gmts. Prices really don’t seem to be coming down on those though.

Those 5 digits GMTs are coming down.

Already seeing prices around 13k usd, which is better imho than 14-15k. Which also means people are selling these for 10-11k usd minimum which is the best part.

18238s are coming down as well.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Those 5 digits GMTs are coming down.

Already seeing prices around 13k usd, which is better imho than 14-15k. Which also means people are selling these for 10-11k usd minimum which is the best part.

18238s are coming down as well.

Full sets?

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Full sets?

Just the watch. I've never seen a lot of full sets available (at decent prices).