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Old 19 August 2019, 11:08 PM   #61
playford
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All of this also presumes that in a recession supply would stay the same.

Rolex could turn the tap, to slow down the flow of watches.

If you see a recession, you are likely to see more in stock at AD's as people cut down on luxury buying and the knock on to grey pricing.

Reality time, you have any kind of a decent recession, saving 2-3k on a luxury watch will be the last thing on your mind.
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Old 19 August 2019, 11:20 PM   #62
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There's one thing he said which is pure speculation but is an interesting thing to ponder - at least to me. It won't happen, but if it did, it would be interesting to see what the knock on is. Namely, his hypothesis that Rolex might pulse manufacture a large quantity of one model (the new BLNR in this case) just to unblock the market in the short term, and take the heat off.

Wouldn't that be nice? It might not make any difference and of course, it would briefly cut down or off production of other models. But what if 1-2,000 BLROs or BLNRs at MSRP hit the UK AD chain just once? Or even 500? Even if Rolex only hinted at doing it, it might knock the grey market towards something at least approaching sanity.
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Old 19 August 2019, 11:21 PM   #63
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My brother bought a DJ41 *two days* ago and the AD mentioned a price *increase* is imminent. FWIW - I've purchased a few watches off him in his 30+ years as an AD. Although I cannot guarantee his info, he's been straight with us for a long time.

Just grist for the mill.

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My AD told me 5 years ago there was going to be a price increase. She’s been wrong every year but one year she’ll get it right !


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Old 19 August 2019, 11:21 PM   #64
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He seems nice
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Old 19 August 2019, 11:26 PM   #65
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There's one thing he said which is pure speculation but is an interesting thing to ponder - at least to me. It won't happen, but if it did, it would be interesting to see what the knock on is. Namely, his hypothesis that Rolex might pulse manufacture a large quantity of one model (the new BLNR in this case) just to unblock the market in the short term, and take the heat off.



Wouldn't that be nice? It might not make any difference and of course, it would briefly cut down or off production of other models. But what if 1-2,000 BLROs or BLNRs at MSRP hit the UK AD chain just once? Or even 500? Even if Rolex only hinted at doing it, it might knock the grey market towards something at least approaching sanity.


That is interesting, but what’s to stop all the grays (who have increased in number and scope over the last few years) from buying up all the pulsed inventory?


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Old 19 August 2019, 11:34 PM   #66
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Rolex just goes on like they have for decades ..producing quality watches in percentages for each type according to the trust instructions laid down by Wilsdorf himself .

I have been a Rolex owner since 2000 and every morning I place one on my wrist ,I get a kick out of it .
I love my collection, which also includes Panerai/IWC and Jaeger leCoultre .

The favourite in my collection isn't a Rolex ,its the PAM671 Blue Bronzo .
My favourite Rolex ? My 2011 DSSD 116660.

Get back to the real reason you own a Rolex .

Rolex is an investment for the soul .
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Old 19 August 2019, 11:47 PM   #67
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If values do crumble imagine how many less active members this forum will have congruently.
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Old 19 August 2019, 11:48 PM   #68
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If values do crumble imagine how many less active members this forum will have congruently.
This place could probably use a purge these days.
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Old 19 August 2019, 11:48 PM   #69
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He offers the same perspective as articulated by members on this forum; too much overinflated pricing; too much hype.

What the future holds is pure speculation, but one thing the video states is fact: many of these watches are not worth the current asking prices/premium above MSRP.
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:23 AM   #70
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Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:24 AM   #71
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Here’s hoping we see it burst soon
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:25 AM   #72
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If values do crumble imagine how many less active members this forum will have congruently.
Definitely. I never see a thread with more “guests” than one about pricing! Says there is a 107 at this moment viewing.
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:27 AM   #73
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Here’s hoping we see it burst soon
Why, watches from AD are still available at MSRP and if someone wants to sell after tiring you can get back more then originally paid ...seems like a win-win IMO.
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:32 AM   #74
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Definitely. I never see a thread with more “guests” than one about pricing! Says there is a 107 at this moment viewing.
Good point. Wonder who all those “guests” actually are??
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:34 AM   #75
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Lots of interesting data points out there if you look for them. Forgetting China slowing, the emerging markets in trouble and Brexit, here in the US: this weekend the Sotheby's auction at Monterey Historics was off 25% from sales last year. An incredible and unprcedented drop. I saw today that US deliveries of RVs were off 20% from last year. These are non necessary products that typically are bought for some of the same reasons folks might buy another watch. Not necessary but I want it. Given the global economic slowdown I can't imagine that it won't directly affect expensive watch sales be they Rolex or AP or ?.
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:37 AM   #76
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It's all the grey dealers!
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:46 AM   #77
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Why, watches from AD are still available at MSRP and if someone wants to sell after tiring you can get back more then originally paid ...seems like a win-win IMO.

That’s pretty much the definition of a bubble: Dutch tulips, beanie babies, baseball cards, stocks, real estate, PS 2’s. The flippers are just a vehicle to set a market price. When demand drops, the price will drop. And when the price turns the corner, demand will drop further... and people will try to dump what they are holding.


It is 100% unsustainable. And when the market crashes, it’s gonna be ugly for those holding inventory. Smart money is making $ on transactions, not speculation.
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:46 AM   #78
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Definitely. I never see a thread with more “guests” than one about pricing! Says there is a 107 at this moment viewing.
I didn't notice that - WOW
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Old 20 August 2019, 12:52 AM   #79
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Lots of interesting data points out there if you look for them. Forgetting China slowing, the emerging markets in trouble and Brexit, here in the US: this weekend the Sotheby's auction at Monterey Historics was off 25% from sales last year. An incredible and unprcedented drop. I saw today that US deliveries of RVs were off 20% from last year. These are non necessary products that typically are bought for some of the same reasons folks might buy another watch. Not necessary but I want it. Given the global economic slowdown I can't imagine that it won't directly affect expensive watch sales be they Rolex or AP or ?.
Yes, classic cars have taken a big hit, and these are truly rare. And the Monterey folks have mega deep pockets. Rolex is running at high volume making more. Imagine if a M3 sold at 2x sticker....
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Old 20 August 2019, 01:13 AM   #80
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This youtuber is out to lunch.

"5711's dropped 10 - 20 thousand dollars in a few weeks"

Really?

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/Pate...1A-010-14.html
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Old 20 August 2019, 01:23 AM   #81
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This youtuber is out to lunch.

"5711's dropped 10 - 20 thousand dollars in a few weeks"

Really?

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/Pate...1A-010-14.html
asking prices did indeed drop by that much but as noted...not many were being sold at the peak prices so does it even count?
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Old 20 August 2019, 01:31 AM   #82
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asking prices did indeed drop by that much but as noted...not many were being sold at the peak prices so does it even count?

I’d argue asking price dropping is a lagging indicator. Exactly zero transactions are happening above asking price. Lowering asking is a response the the market already moving down.
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Old 20 August 2019, 01:39 AM   #83
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I typically look at DSW and other TS here as a barometer for pricing and for the most part their pricing seems to be stable. I don't see “falling” prices. Am I missing something.
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Old 20 August 2019, 01:43 AM   #84
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Yes, classic cars have taken a big hit, and these are truly rare. And the Monterey folks have mega deep pockets. Rolex is running at high volume making more. Imagine if a M3 sold at 2x sticker....
Better analogy is short supply cars (that you can’t walk in and buy) for example

Porsche 911 GT3-RS

Cayman GT4

Lamborghini Jota

Ferrari Pista


All those manufacturers could sell way more if they upped manufacture, but they don’t, keeping people buying Boxsters and Carrera’s for example.....

Enzo once said “make one less than you can sell”
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Old 20 August 2019, 01:43 AM   #85
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Interesting thing to me is most all luxury goods (well really most goods) bought new take a huge depreciation hit right away. If the gray market for rolexes "crashes" what does that really mean? You can buy from a gray at msrp? Seems even in a down economy a desirable Rolex is still going to maintain value better than most luxury goods you buy that deprecate.

Earlier in the thread someone asked when your investment portfolio takes a 30% hit are you still going to buy luxury watches? Different for everyone but at 45 I am in the market for the long run and my watch, sports car, fun money comes from a different bucket. In my case I will absolutely still be interested in the luxury purchase as that has nothing to do with my investment money. Entirely different discussion but if your ability to buy luxury goods is dependent on your investment portfolio you may want to evaluate how you are spending your money anyways.
At the end of the day a cheaper gray market price whatever the cause seems like a good opportunity to purchase.
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Old 20 August 2019, 01:58 AM   #86
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What goes up must come down - usually at the same velocity.

Given the bull run over the last ten years and recent signs of slowdowns, it’s not going to be pretty, especially for bubbling markets.
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Old 20 August 2019, 02:01 AM   #87
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He is such a monkey. "Heavy hittah", cannot get that out of my head whenever I see this tool. I cannot believe anyone will buy watches from him.
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Old 20 August 2019, 02:29 AM   #88
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That’s pretty much the definition of a bubble: Dutch tulips, beanie babies, baseball cards, stocks, real estate, PS 2’s. The flippers are just a vehicle to set a market price. When demand drops, the price will drop. And when the price turns the corner, demand will drop further... and people will try to dump what they are holding.


It is 100% unsustainable. And when the market crashes, it’s gonna be ugly for those holding inventory. Smart money is making $ on transactions, not speculation.
How does above address my question? I asked poster I quoted why would he wish for collapse or burst in his terms when they can already be purchased for msrp at an AD...ask me how I know!
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Old 20 August 2019, 02:29 AM   #89
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It's all the grey dealers!
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Old 20 August 2019, 02:43 AM   #90
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Better analogy is short supply cars (that you can’t walk in and buy) for example

Porsche 911 GT3-RS

Cayman GT4

Lamborghini Jota

Ferrari Pista


All those manufacturers could sell way more if they upped manufacture, but they don’t, keeping people buying Boxsters and Carrera’s for example.....

Enzo once said “make one less than you can sell”
These comparisons don't apply as the scale of production is completely off between the two industries:

Rolex produces millions of SS watches that at MSRP run thousands-to-tens of thousands of dollars.

The auto manufacturers above are producing hundreds or thousands of the cars above that at MSRP run hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Rolex aren't Ferraris. Porsche (with their 24 variants of the 911 for 2019) is a closer comparison in terms of volume I suppose, and as Porsche offers a range of premium-but-not-hypercar-exotic models at drastically different pricing and availability, but even then Porsche sold 250k cars globally last year.

The comparison just doesn't work. A $9k MSRP SS Rolex isn't a GT3-RS of the watch world.
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