Prices Dropping Hard??

[Shihan]

Originally Posted by RobearH

Since when did Rolex release a green dial 2tone GMT?

They didnt...Frankenstein

[newatch321]

Originally Posted by Rodrigo082

I’m sure he is right - you can easy compare the prices from 4 weeks ago and the current prices , they were down by 20%

The Batman oyster - you can easily find for about 12K
Batman Jubilee- 14,500 K

Will look for the Oyster, thanks. Jubilee dial is not my preferred choice.

[importstunna]

Originally Posted by Rodrigo082

I’m sure he is right - you can easy compare the prices from 4 weeks ago and the current prices , they were down by 20%

The Batman oyster - you can easily find for about 12K
Batman Jubilee- 14,500 K

Where are we finding BLNRs at $12k? I am assuming that's just watch only? They are consistently going above $13.5k for decent examples where I see. Would love to hear!

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by importstunna

Where are we finding BLNRs at $12k? I am assuming that's just watch only? They are consistently going above $13.5k for decent examples where I see. Would love to hear!

I haven’t seen one for less than $15.5k recently and I’ve been watching that and the BLRO market...a new BLRO is steady at $18.5-19k.

[guycord]

Prices are not dropping.

When they drop... we will know they are dropping and in the game of musical chairs being played by a few SS models, they will almost and unbeliveably become “toxic”. ie in the ensuing deflation, people will wait and wait to get an even better bargain.


https://browse.startpage.com/do/show...9335&t=default

[DP63]

Its all smoke and mirrors really.

The mistake is that the prices advertised are assumed to be the prices the watches are sold for, one desperate and needy buyer who pays $20k for a $9k MSRP SS Rolex does not set the market price for that model globally.

I think (in my humble opinion) we are starting to see watches advertised via greys for what they actually sell for, in which case, the price of sale has not dropped .... its just that the greys have stopped advertising them at those previously head shaking prices.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by DP63

Its all smoke and mirrors really.

The mistake is that the prices advertised are assumed to be the prices the watches are sold for, one desperate and needy buyer who pays $20k for a $9k MSRP SS Rolex does not set the market price for that model globally.

I think (in my humble opinion) we are starting to see watches advertised via greys for what they actually sell for, in which case, the price of sale has not dropped .... its just that the greys have stopped advertising them at those previously head shaking prices.

Thats the first sign of a weakening market. If they drop their advertising price it means they are selling for less than that.

Before they were advertising a BLNR for $18k and selling probably for $15-16k.

Now they are advertising for $16k and probably selling for $14-15k.

This all starts the momentum because more and more people start holding off buying. Its the natural way it works. And as the gap between gray and msrp closes the number of flippers reduce exponentially. Therefore buying audience is drastically reduced. There is too much risk for little or no reward for the flippers once the gap narrows closer to msrp until all the flippers are gone because there is no money to be made anymore.

[DasKptl]

Originally Posted by peterpl

This all starts the momentum because more and more people start holding off buying. Its the natural way it works. And as the gap between gray and msrp closes the number of flippers reduce exponentially. Therefore buying audience is drastically reduced. There is too much risk for little or no reward for the flippers once the gap narrows closer to msrp until all the flippers are gone because there is no money to be made anymore.

Well explained.

I think "the momentum" has already started.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by DasKptl

Well explained.

I think "the momentum" has already started.

So reverse FOMO?

[DasKptl]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

So reverse FOMO?

Yes, it's reverse FOMO, kinda.

[exador]

Originally Posted by importstunna

Where are we finding BLNRs at $12k? I am assuming that's just watch only? They are consistently going above $13.5k for decent examples where I see. Would love to hear!

http://forums.timezone.com/index.php...=0#msg_7620912

[HL65]

Originally Posted by exador

http://forums.timezone.com/index.php...=0#msg_7620912

Wouldn’t buy that one. Something about stolen pics from another dealer that scream scam let alone below market price.

[Batmannr1]

Originally Posted by Gravity

I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive

Roman is refreshingly honest.

[uddind]

F*** the Flippers ... ruining everyone enjoyment for the hobby

[Fedpete]

I don’t believe the last 60 days of the market act as a good enough sample size to project anything to come.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[finestdealer]

This guy is great

[exador]

Originally Posted by Gravity

I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive

Interesting. So the $19k Pepsi may have been through 8 other dealers before it arrives on DavidSW’s website

[Fire bloke]

Originally Posted by exador

Interesting. So the $19k Pepsi may have been through 8 other dealers before it arrives on DavidSW’s website

Yep Roman tells how it works ..dealer,dealer,dealer,hold dealer hold dealer sell to consumer at vastly inflated price..who is the fool.

Romans video above is superb all of his bids are . He tells it like it is. He is himself a massive gray watch dealers I he has nothing to hide

[peterpl]

So many sales from new guys these days with very little feedback or posts. Many bumps as well and still for sale. Maybe it is the beginning of the end - a lot of guys want to get out of the game?

Similar trends in asian forums and blogs.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=692817
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693700
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693508
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=692035
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=685936
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693694
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693692
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=691300
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693672
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693436
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=686573

[exador]

Originally Posted by peterpl

So many sales from new guys these days with very little feedback or posts.

Yes, I think it's time TRF imposed a 200 post requirement before being allowed to sell (same as Omega Forums).

[Muxi]

It’s that way. If you desire a pretty common reference, your guy could source 2-3 different units no problem. Once supply dries up though, price begins to creep up and you can either pull the trigger or walk away. Happened to me when I was sourcing an Aquanaut from greys. If it takes you a few hours to decide, that watch is gone.

That time I didn’t like the environment either so I walked away. Then the market skyrocketed and it is now out of my reach.

The trade is an entire ecosystem so we cannot attribute fault towards a particular entity

[DTap]

Thought experiment;

100 people want blnrs
They all pay 20k from greys
2 years from now everyone who wants a blnr has one
10 show up in dealer shelves and sit for two weeks at msrp

What is the market price of the blnr at that point when you can buy one at msrp?

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by DTap

Thought experiment;

100 people want blnrs
They all pay 20k from greys
2 years from now everyone who wants a blnr has one
10 show up in dealer shelves and sit for two weeks at msrp

What is the market price of the blnr at that point when you can buy one at msrp?

A used BLNR should be about 1500$ under MSRP just like most things have been for decades....now an AD would prefer a used so they can sell over retail...crazy times but yes prices are dropping very gradually

[DTap]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

A used BLNR should be about 1500$ under MSRP just like most things have been for decades....now an AD would prefer a used so they can sell over retail...crazy times but yes prices are dropping very gradually

Yup, if I were running Rolex, I’d pick a model like blnr and double output for that watch. It’s probably an extr 1-2% of total capacity to double production of ust the one model. Then I’d announce that I was doubling production for that model and in 6 months I’m gonna pick another.

That would accelerate the reset I think. Too bad I can’t run a business 🙁

[Jarlaxle]

I am thinking out loud here so please bear with me.

The video by the Luxury Bazaar guy was really eye opening. Is there any chance that part of what is driving this is “clicks”?

By that I mean, are grey dealers maybe over estimating the demand/interest in these watches because so many of us (and maybe their fellow dealers) are surfing sites and checking prices so it appears there is more demand than there really is?

My frame of reference for this is that my wife is a realtor and she is always checking how many “views” her properties have had. Obviously the more views, the better the chance one of them actually reaches out to schedule a showing (by definition, now showing = no sale).

It’s probably just the IPA(s) talking but I do wonder if the entire ecosystem that has developed is creating a false sense of actual honest to god demand. In the end, don’t all these watches have to end up on someone’s wrist eventually?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Jarlaxle

In the end, don’t all these watches have to end up on someone’s wrist eventually?

It's akin to Japan bonds, their central bank now owns about 75% of the debt issuance. In other words, artificially control demand to keep the illusion alive that all is well while containing pricing.

[exador]

Originally Posted by DTap

Yup, if I were running Rolex, I’d pick a model like blnr and double output for that watch.

BLNRs are being pumped out much faster than Pepsis, hence the price drops. There are already over 300 being advertised on Chrono24 and they've hit the $15k mark.

There must be some truth to the theory that the Pepsi bezel is much harder to produce...

[Fire bloke]

Originally Posted by Jarlaxle

don’t all these watches have to end up on someone’s wrist eventually?

Think pyramid scheme. All of a sudden there is no one to sell to. As everyone who wants has.But it can take years

[johny5]

Hard to believe.

[WatchLurv]

Asia is taking a hit. Rest of the world isn't.