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Old 22 August 2019, 04:52 PM   #181
mic6
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The fact that the prices of the jubilee Pepsi and BLNR are slightly dropping has nothing to do with the Rolex bubble bursting. Those models were extremely high (double than MSPR), just because they were new in production and very desirable while production is limited. Same happened in the past for many new models like the green milgauss.

If you want to have a clear indication about the bubble you need to look at the older models, subs, GMTs, etc.
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Old 22 August 2019, 07:35 PM   #182
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Yep Roman tells how it works ..dealer,dealer,dealer,hold dealer hold dealer sell to consumer at vastly inflated price..who is the fool.

Romans video above is superb all of his bids are . He tells it like it is. He is himself a massive gray watch dealers I he has nothing to hide


*^^^^ this ^^^^*


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Old 22 August 2019, 11:53 PM   #183
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BLNRs are being pumped out much faster than Pepsis, hence the price drops. There are already over 300 being advertised on Chrono24 and they've hit the $15k mark.

There must be some truth to the theory that the Pepsi bezel is much harder to produce...



Awesome chart. I love data!

Iíd also guess given several years of Batman production, there is just far less demand for batgirl.
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Old 23 August 2019, 03:37 AM   #184
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Awesome chart. I love data!

I’d also guess given several years of Batman production, there is just far less demand for batgirl.
The most surprising thing to me about that chart is the fact that the Batgirl started out higher than the Pepsi.

P.S. Although now that I think about it, the timing of the Batgirl release was at peak "you can't get that watch" demand and maybe DavidSW figured they might as well start the price at an insane level just to see if there were any takers who had more money than sense.
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Old 23 August 2019, 05:55 AM   #185
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Hard to judge prices when there is basically a grey market watch cartel running the prices. They all price similar to each other and no one is going to seriously undercut the other person and kill the profits for everyone else.

The big greys are sitting on tons of these models and just releasing them at a certain pace to keep prices high. At a certain point, the market will fight back and adjust but it's not a crash.

The day a Sub-Date sells for less than MSRP is when the bubble has burst. Wait until then. Right now the desirable models are still selling for significantly above retail. The Daytona will sell above retail, even if we have a 2008 crash again. The retail price of that watch is a facade. The watch exists to award VIPs. It's a club Rolex AD prize. Every other model though is open to be crushed eventually.
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Old 23 August 2019, 06:21 AM   #186
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We are in the depth of late summer when the watch is the slowest. By the late fall the prices will frim up and maybe rise higher. The party is not over yet on Rolex. Patek may have peaked with 75K for a 5711 blue dial and the rose gold one Eric mentioned. At some point the prices stop making sense. 25K for a Daytona C white dial is sustainable for the foreseeable future in my view.
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Old 23 August 2019, 06:09 PM   #187
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Hi everybody,

My 1st post on the forum. I've been lurking the threads for quite some time now and decided to join today.

As probably many of you, I am on the list at my local AD for a 126710 BLRO and 114060 as I do not want to feed the gray market. (Learned so far that the more knowledgeable crowd here prefer the true references instead of childish nicknames).

What I have noticed regarding the gray market is that everyday more and more 126710 references are hitting the sale. Just a month ago when I would type the 126710 in the chrono24, I would get about 500 results. Today, the number is above 560. So more and more BLNR and BLRO combined are hitting the gray market.

Also, I have noticed that some 126710 pieces are not moving for a whole summer now. They were sitting on chrono24 for at least 10 weeks now, and those pieces have the lowest asking prices on chrono24 so I believe the current situation regarding this highly popular reference is unsustainable. However, we would really have to wait the January/February of 2020 to have a more clear perspective, imo.
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Old 23 August 2019, 08:01 PM   #188
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It still crazy,,, when the humble dj36 (2019) 116234 is fetching £1500 over list
On Chrono24,,,
not very many or selling very quickly bearing in mind that you donít seem able to purchase certain dials without a wait from a month onwards,,,
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Old 27 August 2019, 01:31 PM   #189
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It will bounce back up! Just enjoy your watches!!
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Old 27 August 2019, 02:10 PM   #190
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Right now you can get the new BLNR at Chrono24 for 13,500K (EUR) and the new BLRO 14,500K (EUR) - all of them coming from HK dealers.

Just hold a bit as they will keep dropping...
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Old 27 August 2019, 02:21 PM   #191
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Iíve seen prices come down. Hoping it slides a bit more soon.
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Old 27 August 2019, 02:31 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Rodrigo082 View Post
new BLRO 14,500K (EUR)
Link? Cheapest I can see is 15.9K.
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Old 27 August 2019, 02:45 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by Podmornica View Post
Hi everybody,

My 1st post on the forum. I've been lurking the threads for quite some time now and decided to join today.

As probably many of you, I am on the list at my local AD for a 126710 BLRO and 114060 as I do not want to feed the gray market. (Learned so far that the more knowledgeable crowd here prefer the true references instead of childish nicknames).

What I have noticed regarding the gray market is that everyday more and more 126710 references are hitting the sale. Just a month ago when I would type the 126710 in the chrono24, I would get about 500 results. Today, the number is above 560. So more and more BLNR and BLRO combined are hitting the gray market.

Also, I have noticed that some 126710 pieces are not moving for a whole summer now. They were sitting on chrono24 for at least 10 weeks now, and those pieces have the lowest asking prices on chrono24 so I believe the current situation regarding this highly popular reference is unsustainable. However, we would really have to wait the January/February of 2020 to have a more clear perspective, imo.
Frankly speaking it is a bit of a problem to define what is what on Chrono24. Sometimes dealers relist their adds just to avoid people thinking that particular piece is not moving at all. In other cases it looks to me, dealers sell a certain item and they do not cancel the add, as they have exactly the same piece already in stock, so why should they pay a fee to Chrono24 twice, if they may avoid that? So it is a bit difficult to make rightful conclusions.
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Old 27 August 2019, 05:57 PM   #194
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The economy is about to turn. Inverted yields in the US, confrontation US-China, Germany and UK on the verge of a recession, Hong Kong watch sales plummeting, hard Brexit looming with a potential negative effect on the UK and the entire Euro zone, car sales down and property prices jittery in some EU countries. Stock market outlook bearish. I see downward pressure on demand.

As for supply, Rolex has just bought another factory, from Patek Philippe (this month). Looks like they're planning on ramping up production.

I'll let you guess the net effect on future grey prices.
I agree with your thoughts on the world economy, very interesting times ahead especially in the UK.
Rolex has brought a factory from PP???
I thought Rolex was clever in not expanding production, due to economic cycles.
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Old 27 August 2019, 06:31 PM   #195
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He is such a monkey. "Heavy hittah", cannot get that out of my head whenever I see this tool. I cannot believe anyone will buy watches from him.
He seems like a decent guy.

Wonder if the different luxury cars he drives in the intro are his or rented for an hour.

Seemed like a "look at me I'm a baller" snippet which I loathe.

If he is loaded, good for him. I just don't think you need to show it off. But I'm older and not on social media so maybe it is a generational thing.

On topic. When China goes and it will soon there it is. Too much propped up debt. Ala 2008 in the US but worse.

Hong Kong alone has the power to change the dynamics of this market. So much volume there. The last thing on anybody's mind in Hong Kong right now is the price of a SS Rolex.

The US is way overdue for a recession too.

Cash is king again.
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Old 27 August 2019, 09:23 PM   #196
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I agree with your thoughts on the world economy, very interesting times ahead especially in the UK.
Rolex has brought a factory from PP???
I thought Rolex was clever in not expanding production, due to economic cycles.
They won't be ramping up production now, the time was two years ago, Rolex are slow but even they won't fall into this after-timing trap now things appear to be maybe on the turn.
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Old 27 August 2019, 09:34 PM   #197
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They won't be ramping up production now, the time was two years ago, Rolex are slow but even they won't fall into this after-timing trap now things appear to be maybe on the turn.

+1. This is perfect for a brand like Rolex and PP. Every brand wants this and unfortunately, I just donít see them creating enough supply where everyone is wearing a Rolex.


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