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Old 20 August 2019, 06:04 PM   #121
drmovement
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Did he say anything?

ď~Early or late November we will see...Ē. Sounds like a fortune teller.

ďGold 5980Ē when did this become the barometer?




Of course the market is inflated

He is entertaining for sure. In terms of 5980 gold, remember he is based in Miami and gold is big, always has been
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Old 20 August 2019, 07:55 PM   #122
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Youtuber and reliable



Yeah, heís not really a youtuber, heís a jeweller and puts out a couple short vids a month.


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Old 20 August 2019, 08:05 PM   #123
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Actually, If Rolex sold an annual production of 850,000 in purely stainless GMTís theyíd be at gross revenue (not unit sales) of $US8,500,000,000.


Nope. Rolex doesnít sell at msrp
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Old 20 August 2019, 08:26 PM   #124
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Eric knows the watch market pretty good, but no one can tell the future.

Have some pieces dropped recently on the secondary market? Yes, just look at the 12 BLNR. Yet, itís still strongly over retail. At the same time the BLRO seems to be inching up.


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Old 20 August 2019, 09:04 PM   #125
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I hope the prices drop some so I can buy some watches
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Old 20 August 2019, 11:28 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by drmovement View Post
He is entertaining for sure. In terms of 5980 gold, remember he is based in Miami and gold is big, always has been
He's citing the 5980/1R as probably the high-water mark in this run-up. MSRP at $90k reselling for ~$200k. That's impressive in both % increase and magnitude of actual cost. I agree it shouldn't be a "barometer" for the broader watch market (5711/1a, SS DaytonaC and SS Sub/GMT should be) but it's an extreme example of the market going nuts.
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Old 20 August 2019, 11:30 PM   #127
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Have some pieces dropped recently on the secondary market? Yes, just look at the 12 BLNR. Yet, itís still strongly over retail. At the same time the BLRO seems to be inching up.


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This.

I don't care about price relative to market top, I care about price relative to retail. I only buy at retail so that's my only concern.
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Old 21 August 2019, 01:43 AM   #128
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All you have to do is go look at the classifieds here. Jubilee Batmanís were $20,000, now 16-17k range. Oyster Batmanís were 15-16k, now getting to the 13k range. Two tone subs and gmts going for under retail. Iíve been following for awhile now, and it does appear there are more stainless models hitting the adís. Thought it was crazy how these were going so much over retail. Glad though and just in time, getting close to my 30th birthday.

Two tone subs have always been under retail. They appear to have gone up a bit from what the grey's have them listed for but still under retail and probably still the best bang for your buck if you want a Rolex.
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Old 21 August 2019, 02:01 AM   #129
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That would be great
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Old 21 August 2019, 02:36 AM   #130
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The economy is about to turn. Inverted yields in the US, confrontation US-China, Germany and UK on the verge of a recession, Hong Kong watch sales plummeting, hard Brexit looming with a potential negative effect on the UK and the entire Euro zone, car sales down and property prices jittery in some EU countries. Stock market outlook bearish. I see downward pressure on demand.

As for supply, Rolex has just bought another factory, from Patek Philippe (this month). Looks like they're planning on ramping up production.

I'll let you guess the net effect on future grey prices.
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Old 21 August 2019, 02:52 AM   #131
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The economy is about to turn. Inverted yields in the US, confrontation US-China, Germany and UK on the verge of a recession, Hong Kong watch sales plummeting, hard Brexit looming with a potential negative effect on the UK and the entire Euro zone, car sales down and property prices jittery in some EU countries. Stock market outlook bearish. I see downward pressure on demand.

As for supply, Rolex has just bought another factory, from Patek Philippe (this month). Looks like they're planning on ramping up production.

I'll let you guess the net effect on future grey prices.


They have been checking with ADís for lists of interest, I donít think you will see sports models in windows but you might not wait as long as lately


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Old 21 August 2019, 02:55 AM   #132
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Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......
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Old 21 August 2019, 03:10 AM   #133
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I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive
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Old 21 August 2019, 03:26 AM   #134
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Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......
Some being those that could not actually afford them.
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Old 21 August 2019, 03:51 AM   #135
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Prices are NOT dropping on the hot models.Its just wishful thinking by individuals who cannot afford those watches,so stop belly aching.
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Old 21 August 2019, 04:34 AM   #136
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Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......
This one has... mostly diversified cash with some gold. Dipping my toe on a short position. Happy to watch on the sidelines for 6 months. I think itís a coin flip at this point.
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Old 21 August 2019, 06:06 AM   #137
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Prices are NOT dropping on the hot models.Its just wishful thinking by individuals who cannot afford those watches,so stop belly aching.
A bit harsh, but true. Stainless Daytonas will always be in demand in any economy. The GMT's might lower a bit, but still do not see the BLRO or BLNR at MSRP any time soon. Still plenty of people with cash to spend.
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Old 21 August 2019, 06:10 AM   #138
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Load down with 116520 and you won’t get hurt....
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Old 21 August 2019, 06:18 AM   #139
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I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive
great insight on the B2B and why AP (and others) would want to control the primary market through boutique only sales as well as getting into the secondary market.
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Old 21 August 2019, 06:33 AM   #140
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Get back to the real reason you own a Rolex .

Rolex is an investment for the soul .
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Old 21 August 2019, 06:47 AM   #141
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I prefer Roman's insight. A bit more comprehensive
Romans channel is superb
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Old 21 August 2019, 07:33 AM   #142
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I actually quite enjoy these threads. Couldn’t care less about “safe to wear” or not threads, but listening to everyone’s view on the forthcoming market is more strings to my bow.
Personally I see trouble ahead. I travel a lot and it’s obvious prices in the US are or have peaked. Apart from Mexico, the US has the most expensive watches I’ve seen.
Prices in the Uk are slowly showing signs of softening IMO. With the impending lack of confidence in the markets that’s starting to take hold, the only way I see these prices going at Greys is down. Some people who bought for investment purposes (which is crazy), are going to take a bath, others won’t.
One year from now it’ll be a different landscape altogether.
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Old 21 August 2019, 07:44 AM   #143
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I actually quite enjoy these threads. Couldnít care less about ďsafe to wearĒ or not threads, but listening to everyoneís view on the forthcoming market is more strings to my bow.
Personally I see trouble ahead. I travel a lot and itís obvious prices in the US are or have peaked. Apart from Mexico, the US has the most expensive watches Iíve seen.
Prices in the Uk are slowly showing signs of softening IMO. With the impending lack of confidence in the markets thatís starting to take hold, the only way I see these prices going at Greys is down. Some people who bought for investment purposes (which is crazy), are going to take a bath, others wonít.
One year from now itíll be a different landscape altogether.
Those who bought for investment deserve it. They probably also bought bitcoin at 19.7k
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Old 21 August 2019, 08:33 AM   #144
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There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.
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Old 21 August 2019, 08:50 AM   #145
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There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.
I think the Blue SkyD more than the Pepsi will demand a higher premium.
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Old 21 August 2019, 08:52 AM   #146
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There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.
blue skyd as well but i don't see daytonas going for like 25k+ if a recession hits. the premium will still be there but not to this extreme
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Old 21 August 2019, 10:00 AM   #147
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There will be three models that will rise in price and it will always be difficult to buy at the price of AD. Pepsi BLRO, Daytona white and Daytona black.
Why? 116520 was extremely hard to get for 6-8 years. In 2015 I tried on the reference in both colors at 2 different ADs before picking up a black dial from my AD who ordered it and delivery came within a week, plus a discount. Iím not saying prices are going in either direction, but from experience Ďalwaysí is a long time for things not to change for better or worse.
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Old 21 August 2019, 10:23 AM   #148
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Those who bought for investment deserve it. They probably also bought bitcoin at 19.7k


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lCcwn6bGUtU
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Old 21 August 2019, 10:56 AM   #149
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Just wondering how many of those saying "looming recession" have liquidated their equity holdings entirely......
There will be for sure. Everyone was banging on about watches being investments and Rolex is totally immune to global factors. All rubbish.

Not a single person cares about watches when life factors are at play. Chinese/asians forums are so funny. Guys who were in the past saying BLNRs going to $30k or LVs going to $20k now selling their stock at reduced prices.

Daily bumps with price reductions - that is a perfect sign of how market sentiment has changed.
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Old 21 August 2019, 11:02 AM   #150
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Still not indicated in boro FS offers.
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