Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[APWorldTour]

Originally Posted by EEpro

I honestly don't think AP would win the popularity contest even then.

@HelloMelo asked why they are falling faster than Rolex. What is your answer since you don't like mine?

I actually agree with the first 2 parts of your answer. For the third part I agree they don’t have as much mass appeal as Rolex but I think that comes down to the average price point. Steel Rolex is much more affordable, at msrp there is almost always positive equity, and at market price it’s not the worst store of value for a luxury good.

However at 40k someone can afford both AP and Rolex and I think that is where AP has the advantage. It is a more prestigious brand and the finishing is much more impressive. If we are comparing a steel ROC to a day-date or gold sub, my personal guess is the ROC would win in a popularity contest, but curious to hear others’ thoughts.

Furthermore, as the market pulls back I believe to the most recent pre-hype bubble levels, gold Rolex were always available and at a discount. Steel AP were more or less a 1 year wait with a small premium at market. That is where I believe the market will bottom out.

Regarding my theory on why ROs are falling so hard, I think it is because they make up such a large portion of APs production. A RO in any configuration is not exactly rare, therefore there is a large supply on the market. And unless we are in a hype cycle where buyers keep buying and prices keep rising, once we topped out the opposite happened and when sellers keep selling then the price keeps dropping. The bottom will be somewhere around where prices traded right before the run-up, where there is large volume support and the market had determined was fair value.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by APWorldTour

Not sure about that as many gold Rolexes are more or less trading under retail now whereas steel AP is still minimum 40% over retail

40 percent over retail??? There are 26331s going mid to high 30ks. That’s not 40 percent over retail. Same with 15500s.

[WatchEater666]

All I know is that I’m excited to pick up some watches at great prices.

[APWorldTour]

Originally Posted by psm11

40 percent over retail??? There are 26331s going mid to high 30ks. That’s not 40 percent over retail. Same with 15500s.

Sorry I was referring to current production models 15510 and 26240, and 40% was a rough figure not an exact science. If we are referencing 15500s and 26331s, I think it’s important to compare with their historic msrp. At release the 26331 was at 24.3k, I think even today’s market price is more or less 40% higher than that.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by APWorldTour

Sorry I was referring to current production models 15510 and 26240, and 40% was a rough figure not an exact science. If we are referencing 15500s and 26331s, I think it’s important to compare with their historic msrp. At release the 26331 was at 24.3k, I think even today’s market price is more or less 40% higher than that.

In 2021 wasn’t the msrp of 26331 over 30k?

[APWorldTour]

Originally Posted by psm11

In 2021 wasn’t the msrp of 26331 over 30k?

Not sure, probably around there. But even if so the 26331 released in Jan 2017 so 80% of the pieces on the market now were originally bought lower than 2021 msrp. I’d say it would be best to compare the current market price of that model to the average msrp over the 5y production span.

[cloudken]

Originally Posted by APWorldTour

I actually agree with the first 2 parts of your answer. For the third part I agree they don’t have as much mass appeal as Rolex but I think that comes down to the average price point. Steel Rolex is much more affordable, at msrp there is almost always positive equity, and at market price it’s not the worst store of value for a luxury good.

However at 40k someone can afford both AP and Rolex and I think that is where AP has the advantage. It is a more prestigious brand and the finishing is much more impressive. If we are comparing a steel ROC to a day-date or gold sub, my personal guess is the ROC would win in a popularity contest, but curious to hear others’ thoughts.

Furthermore, as the market pulls back I believe to the most recent pre-hype bubble levels, gold Rolex were always available and at a discount. Steel AP were more or less a 1 year wait with a small premium at market. That is where I believe the market will bottom out.

Regarding my theory on why ROs are falling so hard, I think it is because they make up such a large portion of APs production. A RO in any configuration is not exactly rare, therefore there is a large supply on the market. And unless we are in a hype cycle where buyers keep buying and prices keep rising, once we topped out the opposite happened and when sellers keep selling then the price keeps dropping. The bottom will be somewhere around where prices traded right before the run-up, where there is large volume support and the market had determined was fair value.

15500ST at a small premium would make right around 30k. A DD or Sub at 40k may also have a floor of 30k, so its a tough call. If youre asking a popularity contest with the public, the answer is Rolex. But if its collectors/investors on what to do with 40k, tough call. Id take the AP because it has a higher beta but I'm fine with waiting for the AD. AP can be a very volatile brand the way they market their product and put all their eggs in one basket.

How about AP vs OF Daytona at retail or market (say 40k too)?

[911AP]

Originally Posted by T3rmina1

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.asp

Weren't you the one saying the bottom had been reached and that prices were rising a few weeks back? It's that last bump.

I know what a dead cat bounce is. I don't think that applies to watches. You can't treat watches with the same rules as the stock market. The behaviors that cause things like this in the stock market to happen are completely different with why people buy watches. I don't think a 1 week uptick by a couple percent constitutes a rally or even a dead cat bounce.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by APWorldTour

Regarding my theory on why ROs are falling so hard, I think it is because they make up such a large portion of APs production. A RO in any configuration is not exactly rare, therefore there is a large supply on the market. And unless we are in a hype cycle where buyers keep buying and prices keep rising, once we topped out the opposite happened and when sellers keep selling then the price keeps dropping. The bottom will be somewhere around where prices traded right before the run-up, where there is large volume support and the market had determined was fair value.

It may not be that way anymore since the different Code configurations. It's making it harder to get ROs. Then precious metal ROs are becoming non existent almost. Just look how few new ones get posted on this forum. I remember years ago before any of this craziness, I'd see a new one posted every month. Supply has changed. It's way lower.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

It may not be that way anymore since the different Code configurations. It's making it harder to get ROs. Then precious metal ROs are becoming non existent almost. Just look how few new ones get posted on this forum. I remember years ago before any of this craziness, I'd see a new one posted every month. Supply has changed. It's way lower.

I am saying this not to belittle you, but because this community means and stands for something.

You are factually wrong. You need to stop spewing misinformation as it is a great disservice to this community.

AP has not notably changed supply downwards. It’s not “way lower”.

In fact, the opposite is true. AP has been/is steadily increasing production significantly. Source is below.

https://usa.watchpro.com/audemars-pi...ches-per-year/

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I am saying this not to belittle you, but because this community means and stands for something.

You are factually wrong. You need to stop spewing misinformation as it is a great disservice to this community.

AP has not notably changed supply downwards. It’s not “way lower”.

In fact, the opposite is true. AP has been/is steadily increasing production significantly. Source is below.

https://usa.watchpro.com/audemars-pi...ches-per-year/

You cherrypick this to twist it how you want to as always with everything. Yes, their overall production has increased. This is well known. I'm talking about the production number of each individual model.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by 911AP

It may not be that way anymore since the different Code configurations. It's making it harder to get ROs. Then precious metal ROs are becoming non existent almost. Just look how few new ones get posted on this forum. I remember years ago before any of this craziness, I'd see a new one posted every month. Supply has changed. It's way lower.

But, if they are increasing their overall production numbers are RO numbers down in the aggregate? If they makes 5k more watches this year maybe those are the new codes. The RO numbers would stay the same if not increase slightly.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by psm11

But, if they are increasing their overall production numbers are RO numbers down in the aggregate? If they makes 5k more watches this year maybe those are the new codes. The RO numbers would stay the same if not increase slightly.

More Codes, More ROOs, More concepts. But also there are more than just 41mm ROs now. They have so many variations in different case sizes now, but it's the 41mm that have the best resale value (ignoring the jumbos which are better at 39mm).

Then even within the ROs they have different dial colors, metals, precious stones etc... For instance they have so many different jumbos now. So that means less 15202st are being produced. Well I should say 16202st now. Same applies with the 41mm RO line.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by 911AP

More Codes, More ROOs, More concepts. But also there are more than just 41mm ROs now. They have so many variations in different case sizes now, but it's the 41mm that have the best resale value (ignoring the jumbos which are better at 39mm).

Then even within the ROs they have different dial colors, metals, precious stones etc... For instance they have so many different jumbos now. So that means less 15202st are being produced. Well I should say 16202st now. Same applies with the 41mm RO line.

I don’t know… if they are increasing their numbers I would think that would be to accommodate these new and varied models. If AP makes 2,000 black dial 15510s a year why would they cut into that number? Especially if they are increasing output. Why would they forsake additional 15510s for models (ROO and Code) that are all going for significantly under retail on the open market?

[hello93]

These are currently the number of models on sale on chrono24 from the year 2022, note I only filtered by case size:

Royal Oak 37mm: 88 listings
Royal Oak 39mm: 80 listings
Royal Oak 41mm: 83 listings
Royal Oak Offshore: 354 listings
Code 11.59: 73 listings

Interpret this how you want but it appears across the royal oak in different sizes and the code 11.59 production output seems about the same with a standard deviation of about 6%~

Also I don't think it makes sense for AP to produce more Codes and less Royal Oaks. Average Steel Royal Oak buyer isn't going to purchase a Code to get on a list when they can go grey. However, I can def envision AP using Codes for there more highly sought after pieces like jumbos, openworked, tourbillion. If AP wants any longevity in the Code line they absolutely do not want to flood the market making it less desirable and overproduce being left with unwanted inventory

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

You cherrypick this to twist it how you want to as always with everything. Yes, their overall production has increased. This is well known. I'm talking about the production number of each individual model.

What source is this from? Thanks in advance

[911AP]

Originally Posted by psm11

I don’t know… if they are increasing their numbers I would think that would be to accommodate these new and varied models. If AP makes 2,000 black dial 15510s a year why would they cut into that number? Especially if they are increasing output. Why would they forsake additional 15510s for models (ROO and Code) that are all going for significantly under retail on the open market?

Code is the new watch. They want to push that more than anything. So they have to take away from the RO to produce more Codes. AP is trying to become more than just the RO. I will say though probably as their total production increases each year this will balance out. But, for right now at this moment it's probably contributing to ROs going up in value second hand and them being harder to get.

I don't really care that there are more people trying to get a RO. That's the demand factor. But, I have relationships with a few boutiques that I have made over the years. They are getting less of the same ROs that they used to get way more of each month before the Code launch.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Code is the new watch. They want to push that more than anything. So they have to take away from the RO to produce more Codes. AP is trying to become more than just the RO. I will say though probably as their total production increases each year this will balance out. But, for right now at this moment it's probably contributing to ROs going up in value second hand and them being harder to get.

I don't really care that there are more people trying to get a RO. That's the demand factor. But, I have relationships with a few boutiques that I have made over the years. They are getting less of the same ROs that they used to get way more of each month before the Code launch.

But ROs aren’t really going up in value (there have been numerous videos from popular greys stating that and that ROs are going down in value).

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by psm11

But ROs aren’t really going up in value (there have been numerous videos from popular greys stating that and that ROs are going down in value).

Down every time I look and I am actively shopping.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by psm11

But ROs aren’t really going up in value (there have been numerous videos from popular greys stating that and that ROs are going down in value).

This is a fact.

[WatchEater666]

Simple heuristic...

Look at their employees on LinkedIn over time.

Generally a good proxy for how aggressively the business is scaling with some caveats.

:)

[psm11]

Originally Posted by WatchEater666

Simple heuristic...

Look at their employees on LinkedIn over time.

Generally a good proxy for how aggressively the business is scaling with some caveats.

:)

Not following, what do you mean?

[psm11]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...and-patek-fall

More price cuts

[Vince_76]

Fullset mint condition 264001O (44mm Ti offshore) for $30k. Cheapest I’ve seen it

Also, has anyone noticed that the number of auctions has dropped off significantly over the past month or so? Really feeds into the argument that there is a big bid ask spread, and dealers are trying to pump the market.

[1665fan]

Rolex gmt back on the rise not sure about AP

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Rolex gmt back on the rise not sure about AP

Please provide data points. I don’t think that’s the case. It’s remained fairly constant the past month, and just isn’t falling precipitously like AP

In other words, they’ve plateau’d at best.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by psm11

But ROs aren’t really going up in value (there have been numerous videos from popular greys stating that and that ROs are going down in value).

The move already happened. From when these changes took place the RO is higher than before. Don't always compare things from the height in pricing. Compare it to before all the stupidity started happening. Since then it's still way up.

[slim]

I've been watching the 26574OR for a while now.

Unworn 02 dial version listed at 171k. You guys think its negotiable to the 150 range?

I hope these will be at retail soon, maybe the boutiques will beg me to buy one.

https://www.europeanwatch.com/watch/...al--44898.html

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by slim

I've been watching the 26574OR for a while now.

Unworn 02 dial version listed at 171k. You guys think its negotiable to the 150 range?

I hope these will be at retail soon, maybe the boutiques will beg me to buy one.

https://www.europeanwatch.com/watch/...al--44898.html

I suggested going to a boutique and asking. Let us know what they say.

[slim]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

I suggested going to a boutique and asking. Let us know what they say.

They didn't seem to interested in putting me on a list for one on my last visit a few months ago. I was recently at a boutique in Tokyo(just to visit) and they made it clear beforehand that nothing can be ordered or bought.