5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[Russell996]

UK AD’s are shut, 700 out of hours acceptances of an expression of interest for 1 AD is going the extra mile.

[amardave1]

I spoke to an AD friend an he said almost exactly that about having to buy a bunch of 'other jewelry' in order to be able to purchase a hot item like a Patek or AP at list price. They know that people are buying and reselling and they clearly don't want that. Since the AD can't mark it up beyond list, they are tacking on the additional required purchases.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Russell996

UK AD’s are shut, 700 out of hours acceptances of an expression of interest for 1 AD is going the extra mile.

It wasn't in the UK, I travel on business and this was in the Middle East.#
UK ADs will have take hundreds of calls too though.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by David001

It wasn't in the UK, I travel on business and this was in the Middle East.#
UK ADs will have take hundreds of calls too though.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by David001

I was talking to a salesman at a Patek AD yesterday about another watch and he asked if I had put myself down for the green 5711. I said no and he told me that if I wanted to then I should hurry up because they were closing the list shortly as they had almost 700 people on it so far.



I asked how many did they expect to get and he said maybe five a year.

If they get five a year it will take about 140yrs to satisfy current demand (and that's not counting any further orders in the next 140yrs).



That's just the green faced one, they're not taking orders for the wait lists for any other 57's because there are so many on the wait list they will be impossible to fulfil anyway.



Prices for any 57XX Nautilus won't be going down any time soon.

I guarantee, with 100% certainty, there are only 700 people on the list because they know that if they are lucky, in what they perceive to be the free to enter lottery of putting their name down, they will make 10,000s of immediate profit. Tell those 700 people they can have the watch but the secondary dealers are paying 20% below retail for them and watch the 700 disappear to a much smaller number who really want it.

I know that's not going to happen obviously in today's market.

[David001]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

I guarantee, with 100% certainty, there are only 700 people on the list because they know that if they are lucky, in what they perceive to be the free to enter lottery of putting their name down, they will make 10,000s of immediate profit. Tell those 700 people they can have the watch but the secondary dealers are paying 20% below retail for them and watch the 700 disappear to a much smaller number who really want it.

I know that's not going to happen obviously in today's market.

It makes no difference, there are 700 people that want one from that one dealer and it doesn't matter why they want them. I think there will be a few people that actually don't like them and only buy them to flip. But I think many will see it as a low risk purchase for something they want and if it doesn't end up being their dream watch then they can offload it and not lose anything.

700 seems to be the number they stop taking orders, last year the AP store told me they closed their lists for the Jumbo at 700. And the Rolex store closed their kermit orders at 700 when the 41mm came out.

[David001]

I think some of you live in small towns or don't talk much to your ADs.
They have huge waiting lists in any of the big city ADs for hot watches.

[cascavel]

If you don't know by now whether or not you're going to get a Green Dial 5711 from your AD then you are not going to get one. There is no "wait list" at any AD and it's ridiculous to think so and no one who has been promised this watch is going to pass on it so that the next deserving soul in line can get one, anything else is magical thinking. All of the 2021 5711 production has already been spoken for, no need to stay close to your phone waiting for the call.

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by Russell996

UK AD’s are shut, 700 out of hours acceptances of an expression of interest for 1 AD is going the extra mile.

UK ADs are shut but many are accepting phone calls. I contacted the London Salon last Friday and they said they have already closed the list for those 3 models and will only allocate pieces to existing clients.

[David001]

Originally Posted by cascavel

If you don't know by now whether or not you're going to get a Green Dial 5711 from your AD then you are not going to get one. There is no "wait list" at any AD and it's ridiculous to think so and no one who has been promised this watch is going to pass on it so that the next deserving soul in line can get one, anything else is magical thinking. All of the 2021 5711 production has already been spoken for, no need to stay close to your phone waiting for the call.

I agree.
Except there is a list.

ADs all get managed differently and whilst the majority do seem to pander to the big spenders, every now and then they throw a curveball.

It's a long and not terribly exciting story but I got a hot Rolex a couple of years ago just by having a polite conversation. The only thing I'd bought there previously was a DJ. I thought that might be my route to everything I wanted, so I put others on order, but since then I haven't had a single call from them, despite trying to maintain a relationship.

So I think sometimes they look at your history and just decide to throw a watch out to someone at random, for whatever reasons they choose.

I think the guy I know in the Patek boutique is pretty honest with me, he told me outright that I'm not getting a SS 5712 in the next year even if I buy two Grand Complications, any that come this year are allocated to VVVIPs and unless TS issues a direct instruction then there won't be one for me.

[David001]

He also told me that they really do carefully consider who they're going to give hot watches out to. They know some might get flipped but they try to ensure they don't, because if too many get flipped and grey dealers are awash with them then they'll start to discount them to get their stock moving, and that's the slippery slope.

I'm only guessing but I can see why TS might start to throttle back on production of 57XXs because they really don't want too many out there. The conundrum is if you can't get one through an AD at retail and no one is buying at crazy grey prices then the price will fall until people are tempted to buy, just to get things moving. At that point it could end up being a race to the bottom to offload before prices go down too much and it snowballs.

There are a lot of 57XX's for sale on the bigger selling sites, I don't know if they're selling at those prices, I don't know any grey dealers well enough to ask.

[S``]

Originally Posted by cascavel

If you don't know by now whether or not you're going to get a Green Dial 5711 from your AD then you are not going to get one. There is no "wait list" at any AD and it's ridiculous to think so and no one who has been promised this watch is going to pass on it so that the next deserving soul in line can get one, anything else is magical thinking. All of the 2021 5711 production has already been spoken for, no need to stay close to your phone waiting for the call.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by David001

I agree.
Except there is a list.

ADs all get managed differently and whilst the majority do seem to pander to the big spenders, every now and then they throw a curveball.

It's a long and not terribly exciting story but I got a hot Rolex a couple of years ago just by having a polite conversation. The only thing I'd bought there previously was a DJ. I thought that might be my route to everything I wanted, so I put others on order, but since then I haven't had a single call from them, despite trying to maintain a relationship.

So I think sometimes they look at your history and just decide to throw a watch out to someone at random, for whatever reasons they choose.

I think the guy I know in the Patek boutique is pretty honest with me, he told me outright that I'm not getting a SS 5712 in the next year even if I buy two Grand Complications, any that come this year are allocated to VVVIPs and unless TS issues a direct instruction then there won't be one for me.

And out of curiosity, exactly how long ago was this that you were offered a hot rolex? oh and which rolex if you don't mind me asking?

[CastorKrieg]

Originally Posted by David001

It's a long and not terribly exciting story but I got a hot Rolex a couple of years ago just by having a polite conversation. The only thing I'd bought there previously was a DJ. I thought that might be my route to everything I wanted, so I put others on order, but since then I haven't had a single call from them, despite trying to maintain a relationship.

So I think sometimes they look at your history and just decide to throw a watch out to someone at random, for whatever reasons they choose.

I think the guy I know in the Patek boutique is pretty honest with me, he told me outright that I'm not getting a SS 5712 in the next year even if I buy two Grand Complications, any that come this year are allocated to VVVIPs and unless TS issues a direct instruction then there won't be one for me.

Same thing, I got a 5712a as my first Patek, and from the Salon. Sure, I put a request in 2015, but at no point during the conversation it appeared like it would be difficult to get, just "you are on the list, all good, now we wait". Only a year or two later I started to realize how incredibly lucky I got.

[David001]

Originally Posted by mwireless

And out of curiosity, exactly how long ago was this that you were offered a hot rolex? oh and which rolex if you don't mind me asking?

About 18 months ago, a GMT.
I don't think it's very common, but it happens.

[edhahn44]

Just saw this at a German classified page. This is getting ridiculous....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[slomosen]

Originally Posted by Flex368

I´ve read this sentence several times on here. Can someone please enlighten me where all these mysterious 5711s have been sitting at ADs across Europe?

I´ve never seen a single 5711 in an AD window in 2015 or 2016. There was already a wait list for these in every major city and they were very difficult to get.

Here in the NYC metro area, I distinctly remember that the steel ones were not available. However, there were plenty of 5711Rs to be had. And I'm going to go as far as saying that they may even have been available below retail...!

[slomosen]

Originally Posted by edhahn44

Just saw this at a German classified page. This is getting ridiculous....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

To be honest, I think these are just "testing the market" auctions. It invites a potential buyer to the table, a conversation/negotiation is likely had, and then the real price may (or may not) get hammered out. I imagine that the true market value will be very difficult to gauge for at least a year or two. Unless a major auction house sells one, I don't think we'll have a real sense of it.

[de66]

Originally Posted by David001

I was talking to a salesman at a Patek AD yesterday about another watch and he asked if I had put myself down for the green 5711. I said no and he told me that if I wanted to then I should hurry up because they were closing the list shortly as they had almost 700 people on it so far.

I asked how many did they expect to get and he said maybe five a year.
If they get five a year it will take about 140yrs to satisfy current demand (and that's not counting any further orders in the next 140yrs).

That's just the green faced one, they're not taking orders for the wait lists for any other 57's because there are so many on the wait list they will be impossible to fulfil anyway.

Prices for any 57XX Nautilus won't be going down any time soon.

5 pieces per year?!? That is a major over estimation.
Rumor has it that total production will be 1000 total, at best. With 400 AD doors, you can do the math.

Whats the point of having a waitlist with 700 people on it? They dont take people on waitlists for other nautilus models yet those models are produced in larger numbers than the green. Makes no sense to take people on a waitlist for the green. They already know by now who is gonna be get those 2-3 pieces they get allocated. just my

[dchang81]

Originally Posted by slomosen

Here in the NYC metro area, I distinctly remember that the steel ones were not available. However, there were plenty of 5711Rs to be had. And I'm going to go as far as saying that they may even have been available below retail...!

every nautilus including my 5711a i've been offered a discount. 20% off of a 5711R, 5712, 5990, 30% off a blue 5980a. woulda coulda shoulda. i really wanted the 5712 but i didn't have any money was the problem.

[David001]

Originally Posted by de66

5 pieces per year?!? That is a major over estimation.
Rumor has it that total production will be 1000 total, at best. With 400 AD doors, you can do the math.

Whats the point of having a waitlist with 700 people on it? They dont take people on waitlists for other nautilus models yet those models are produced in larger numbers than the green. Makes no sense to take people on a waitlist for the green. They already know by now who is gonna be get those 2-3 pieces they get allocated. just my

I don't know how every AD is managed, but I know at this (multiple branch) AD there is a wait list. I've seen my profile on their system and it clearly shows the watches I'm waiting for.

I don't know how they manage the list, before covid I saw two guys (sounded Russian) sitting with a SA with multiple complications on the desktop, they were doing a deal and I couldn't see exactly what watches they were but I heard them saying "So if we buy these ones then we can get this one too?" so obviously a deal was being struck for something hot out of the safe. That must have bumped someone down the list.

It seems like on average I get one watch off my list every year, so I think they look at the list and make a decision, it looks like they don't literally follow the order of when you went on the list.

[GreenLantern]

Pretty sure there's no AD with 700 (or even 500) people on the wait list for a 5740/1G.

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Pretty sure there's no AD with 700 (or even 500) people on the wait list for a 5740/1G.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by jamestucker

[dchang81]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Pretty sure there's no AD with 700 (or even 500) people on the wait list for a 5740/1G.

so you're telling me there's a chance????

[Ichiran]

There is no waitlist. The AD already know who to gift the green 5711 to. And big-spending VIP who are receiving the green 5711 should not be surprised that they are receiving it too.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

There is no waitlist. The AD already know who to gift the green 5711 to. And big-spending VIP who are receiving the green 5711 should not be surprised that they are receiving it too.

I think you're right and unless someone very famous steps in to ask for one then they're already allocated, the 'list' in this case was a wish list and I was asked if I would like to put myself on the wish list when I was buying another piece, but I know it was only out of politeness, I won't get one - the SA said it was worth going on this wish list because "you never know" but we both knew it was nothing more than politeness, plus I don't actually want one.

I'm sure I saw a news story where one is already for sale on the grey market.

[David001]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Pretty sure there's no AD with 700 (or even 500) people on the wait list for a 5740/1G.

I don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me in some places, there are way more than 700 people in some places with the means to buy half a dozen of these and they would happily flip them. A SA told me that he has hundreds of people that put themselves on the wish list for every hot watch and they'll buy half a dozen at a time if they can.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that all wish lists for all hot Patek/Rolex/AP are in their many hundreds everywhere. The UAE and Bahrain alone shift so many watches they have thousands of enquiries a month. Maybe in Montana you're right, but have a walk around the Dubai Mall and you'll see plenty of PP/Rolex/AP bags, I've never been in one of those stores and not seen people walking out with watches.

If any AD advertised 700 5740s right now they'd be sold out in minutes and three quarters would be up for sale soon.

Surely you know all this? The world isn't all Mom & Pop stores and honest customers.

[mooty]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

There is no waitlist. The AD already know who to gift the green 5711 to. And big-spending VIP who are receiving the green 5711 should not be surprised that they are receiving it too.

u are right.
I know a few ppl that if they wanted a patek, ANY current patek, they will get it with zero problem. there are plenty of ppl who spend $3-4mm year after year, and not bat an eye.

[Flex368]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

There is no waitlist. The AD already know who to gift the green 5711 to.

My thoughts exactly.