5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by liljctl

Yes, it is relative but I suspect with the smaller countries like Malaysia it it easier when it comes to allocation.

Contrary to what ADs tell us, they and not Patek decides on who gets allocated what.

The 5740 is a hard one. Like the 5270p salmon, each boutique receives about 2 a year.

So this means 4 a year for Cortina in Malaysia. I was given an opportunity to buy the 5167SG and the 6007a but I am still waiting for my 5740.

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

Thanks for the insight! I would have thought it’s the other way round considering both the 5167 Singapore LE and the 6007a are limited editions to commemorate events like the SG grand exhibition and the opening of PP’s new factory while the 5740 is part of the current Nautilus line up. Hope you get your soon! Cheers!

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by liljctl

Yes, it is relative but I suspect with the smaller countries like Malaysia it it easier when it comes to allocation.

I assume only the top 2 to 3 VIP of each AD receives the 6007a, because there are 1000 of these for 380 AD. The 5740 was released in 2018 and if we take what your AD represented (2 pcs per year), your AD would have received 6 pcs by now. Most of those who have their 6007a I knew already have their 5740. Did you ask your AD what happened to those 6 pcs? 1 of it should have been yours.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I assume only the top 2 to 3 VIP of each AD receives the 6007a, because there are 1000 of these for 380 AD. The 5740 was released in 2018 and if we take what your AD represented (2 pcs per year), your AD would have received 6 pcs by now. Most of those who have their 6007a I knew already have their 5740. Did you ask your AD what happened to those 6 pcs? 1 of it should have been yours.

I have been asking them the same question but the 6007a is a beaut.

20210303_175241.jpg

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

[illiguy]

Going back to the 5711 ...

If the successor to the 5711 is PM only, what do we think the floor is on current 5711? Status quo?

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Going back to the 5711 ...

If the successor to the 5711 is PM only, what do we think the floor is on current 5711? Status quo?

Seems like it's already begun to creep back down into the 90s for second hand examples with B+P. I wouldn't be surprised if $90K held for those.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by liljctl

I have been asking them the same question but the 6007a is a beaut.

Agree, I like this one.

Originally Posted by illiguy

Going back to the 5711 ...

If the successor to the 5711 is PM only, what do we think the floor is on current 5711? Status quo?

The implication will be wider than just the 5711 - the entire SS Nautilus will see a spike in secondary prices, because the market will assume the discontinuation of the entire SS range.

But I like this PM idea. Patek will also enjoy a higher margin for the PM Nautilus and it can still serve as a bait for the other complicated dress watches (I'm sorry but a more expensive Nautilus is still a Nautilus, and the popularity will not hurt one bit). I'm afraid it will still be a talking point in which Thierry Stern is trying hard to steer away from.

The 5711 and other SS Nautilus will become collector's items. Future auctions should feature a lot of these at elevated price I think.

I hope there will be no more SS Nautilus. Ever.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Agree, I like this one.



The implication will be wider than just the 5711 - the entire SS Nautilus will see a spike in secondary prices, because the market will assume the discontinuation of the entire SS range.

But I like this PM idea. Patek will also enjoy a higher margin for the PM Nautilus and it can still serve as a bait for the other complicated dress watches (I'm sorry but a more expensive Nautilus is still a Nautilus, and the popularity will not hurt one bit). I'm afraid it will still be a talking point in which Thierry Stern is trying hard to steer away from.

The 5711 and other SS Nautilus will become collector's items. Future auctions should feature a lot of these at elevated price I think.

I hope there will be no more SS Nautilus. Ever.

Can the new green AP platinum 15202 be foretelling what to come? At least for the farewell edition? I personally think it is a good idea, as long as Patek makes it available to anyone who wants it. But then of course I am dreaming

[GB-man]

I wouldn’t ignore the fact that a key feature of the 15202 and subsequently the 5711 was that it was a luxury sports watch in SS.

I have $500 that says there’s a steel successor to the 5711 whether it has 2 or 3 hands. Date or no date. In an ideal world it’s 2 hands with date and updated clasp.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I assume only the top 2 to 3 VIP of each AD receives the 6007a, because there are 1000 of these for 380 AD. The 5740 was released in 2018 and if we take what your AD represented (2 pcs per year), your AD would have received 6 pcs by now. Most of those who have their 6007a I knew already have their 5740. Did you ask your AD what happened to those 6 pcs? 1 of it should have been yours.

Can each AD really get two 5740s per year?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by llngoc

Can each AD really get two 5740s per year?

My AD said only 1. The other one I have relationship with also said 1.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I hope there will be no more SS Nautilus. Ever.

Can’t see a world where this happens. Patek will have a full offering of SS Nautilus models, they are very keen to look after their AD’s and you can’t do this with only PM pieces.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

My AD said only 1. The other one I have relationship with also said 1.

Darn, got my hopes up. That’s what my AD told me too...

I was hoping I may see one sooner...

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Can’t see a world where this happens. Patek will have a full offering of SS Nautilus models, they are very keen to look after their AD’s and you can’t do this with only PM pieces.

I can see where you are coming from but PM Nautilus like 5711/1R, 5980/1R and 5740 are no less popular and sought after than their SS brethren (no 5740/1A I know). I can see Patek expanding into these 1R, 1G or even 1J variants in the near future. I really don't see the point of entry level SS Nautilus anymore. Maybe only the salons still give out SS Sports to new customers but I can't see profit-driven ADs doing that unless they have an agreement with Patek to fulfill. I reckon the future of SS Patek lies with Calatrava.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Seems like it's already begun to creep back down into the 90s for second hand examples with B+P. I wouldn't be surprised if $90K held for those.

I agree as a floor.

[ragsk]

I'd be shocked if there were no steel Nautilus models. This crazy market wont last forever and when it turns a $50k to $60k starting point for a Nautilus will look ridiculous and unsustainable.

Patek are not stupid

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I can see where you are coming from but PM Nautilus like 5711/1R, 5980/1R and 5740 are no less popular and sought after than their SS brethren (no 5740/1A I know). I can see Patek expanding into these 1R, 1G or even 1J variants in the near future. I really don't see the point of entry level SS Nautilus anymore. Maybe only the salons still give out SS Sports to new customers but I can't see profit-driven ADs doing that unless they have an agreement with Patek to fulfill. I reckon the future of SS Patek lies with Calatrava.

I also expect the next entry-level SS piece to be a Calatrava and the new basic Nautilus (after the farewell 5711) to come in PM only (1G and possibly 1J).

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I can see Patek expanding into these 1R, 1G or even 1J variants in the near future. I reckon the future of SS Patek lies with Calatrava.

Makes sense

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

[Tz1983]

Originally Posted by shkure

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 caused the decline in the complicated Patek market. This was coupled with a trend shift to cheaper SS models. Social media has compounded the issue further.

People who know nothing about watches are now going to ADs to purchase Sports model Rolexes/AP/PP as investments because they have heard they can make easy money. Noone wanted to touch a Nautilus when it was trading below retail 5 years ago. Same with 15202, Aquanaut, Hulk etc. They were widely available at ADs, just like complicated Pateks are now.

One thing i know for sure is that no specific market stays hot forever, especially in luxury. Trend shifts occur all the time.

All the speculators who bought the watches for profit, will dump them if all of the sudden prices decline and some of them trade below retail. And the gray market bid wont be there, not in bad times.

There will be a great unwind in SS at some point IMHO, and it will be ugly. PP is getting ahead of it by discontinuing the 5711 all together and putting the spotlight on their complicated pieces.

I think thats the smart move. Sell you steel Nautilus at the peak and pick up at 5270 at the bottom.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is a really interesting thought. You feel the 5270 is undervalued being that it sells at MSRP in the secondary? Hard to see a rotation into complications soon but if sport watches across the three big brands are sold out it may be a forced market movement.

As an aside I feel investing in a 41mm PP dress watch could be foolish as the 38mm is clearly more suitable for dress.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shkure]

The 5270 is 20% below retail. I would always choose a PP GrandComp over 3 hander Nautilus for similar money.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kohuti02]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Was your first Nautilus a 5711? There were lots of Nautilii sitting around dealers cases in 2015 and some were offered at big discounts, the 5980 for example.

That's true. I bought mine in early 2016 for mid $30K's.

[gaeleus]

It could be worth whatever they say on paper, it doesnt mean people are paying those prices! Once the 5711 broke through the 50k barrier, i lost interest in acquiring the piece. This is an entry level piece that has been overhyped by social media. Meanwhile, i capitalized on complicated pieces at a discount while people chase the Nautilus!

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

My AD said only 1. The other one I have relationship with also said 1.

My AD also gets only 1 5740/1G per year

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

Interesting post. Some of what you say is right, some of it is wrong.

The Nautilus/Aqua has expanded PP brand awareness to a hitherto uninterested market demographic. Problem is PP can't exploit that. To do so, would involve increasing production which they physically cannot do without compromising quality (something which they're already struggling with at just current production levels) AND more importantly doing so will will destroy brand equity.

IMO you're seeing this brand expansion as "keeping PP relevant." I think that's entirely wrong. I think what you're not seeing is that PP's dollars come from collectors and enthusiasts from all over the world who don't really care about PP's sports models. I keep saying it, but the market in different countries is radically different to, for example, the USA.

The reason that your lovely 5270 has lost so much money is that TS has produced far too many of them. He's fluffed a LOT of references in different ways. The 5270 most of all. So many variants, so many dials, so much volume.
This compares very unfavourably with the availability of the 5970 which was produced in much much smaller quantities - the 5970p in particular was a very difficult watch to get.

Same with 5170 vs 5070. The latter was made in puny quantities.
Same with 5204 vs 5004. The latter was almost built to order with less than 20 leaving the factory every year.

THAT is the issue with the current GCs. Mr Stern has made too many. I think demand for them is the same as it ever was. I just hope he doesn't repeat the mistake with its successors.

However, this overproduction should not be conflated with 'Fitness 'InstaTubers' demanding Nautilus and pushing prices ever higher and representing the underlying demand for PP - these guys don't - just like the stock market, this isn't a "new paradigm"!

Just one question to your point...

1. If the demand for 5711 was higher in the US, then why do the highest prices for the watch exist outside the US? There are a total of of around 100 of these watches for sale, The oldest ones being 2010 and selling for around 100k

In stark contrast there are 4,355 Daytonas for sale. There are 40x more daytonas for sale than 5711's and the funny thing is even those are all selling 2-3x above list for the past 2 decades. (two tone Daytonas excluded LOL)

[GreenLantern]

I've yet to meet anyone who'd be willing to spend $160k on a 5711/1A.

Honestly.

Is anyone going to do that?

I love the 5711/1A Blue, but wow. Take that money and get something else. $195k? Go get a Greubel Forsey instead.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

There is so much anecdotal evidence in this response that i dont even know where to start. Patek themselves have said they they produce max 10% of watches in steel. So your claim that the Nautilus somehow kept Patek afloat is really outrageous and not true. As a matter of fact, PP is discontinuing the Nautils altogether. If that was their bread a butter, why would they do that??? Because they sell way more complicated watches that steel sports watches. and they dont want to let the short term speculators change that.

Ill repeat it again, the DNA of Patek is the Grand Complication, not the Nautilus. The company is telling you the same thing by discontinuing the 5711. Dont argue with me, just listen to them.

As far as 5270 being a watch for old people, i strongly disagree. And collectors having mostly sports watches in their collection is because thats the trend right now. If you looked at their collections in early 2000s it was complicated Pateks and RO LE Offshores. Trends always change, and collections follow. End of days Ofshore was trading at 3x as well, but now they are back at or below retail. It might seem outrageous now, but dont be surprised if the Nautilus follows.

in the long term, a Patek Perputal Chrono will always be worth more than a basic 3 hander steel Nautilus. Go compare a 2499 with a 3700. The are both vintage and from the same period. The 2499 is worth orders of magnitude more. Because again, the DNA of Patek is the Grand Comp.

Okay for one this is a thread about the 5711.... Not a resurrection thread about the 5270.

But to address that point I have to tell you that currently there are 108 5270's ALL of which are selling for less than list. I own one and have another on the way. You don't have to sell me on the 5270 being a great watch. I don't get it. First you say u were not fortunate to get a 5711 at list. THen you say if you did you would trade it for a 5270 or how the grand complication is the only true patek and what patek is all about. Why not just go buy a 5270 at a discount and call it a day instead of bashing the nautilus?


But to address some of your points Let's discuss some history about Patek and Hermes because Patek is following the success of Hermes and their selling techniques.

Hermes is known for quality leather goods and has been around for 184 years. Patek has been around for 182 years. In it's early days the company was on the map for smaller elite crowds only and almost unfamiliar to the masses. About 50 years ago Hermes created the Birkin handbag and decided to sell it only to those customers with high purchase history. Today the Birkin bag is still their most desired item and a status symbol known by everyone. They make a limited amount of bags but you need high purchase history to get one and they sell for 50-100% above list. No other leather goods/handbag designer can boast such a claim. The Birkin wasn't their DNA originally but it has catapulted the Hermes brand to heights they've never seen before and kept them there. Why? Because while people buy luxury items for quality, they also buy it for status.


Patek is following suit 100%. The nautilus is their Birkin bag and although it took them quite some time to figure out how to sell it, it is the status symbol they've been waiting for. About 3-4 years ago they decided to copy what Hermes has been doing at a company level. The comp watches are great and they are going to sell but not because the demand for them still exists like it should but because they're going to be required for purchase history so that someone can be offered a nautilus. How do I know this? Because even though there are only 108 5270 for sale they're still sitting there selling below list.

If this was a conspiracy by dealers/resellers who some claim to be artificially jacking up the price of Nautilus watches, couldn't they do the same for grand comps, the so called DNA of Patek? Anyone making that claim just shows me how out of touch they are with the market and resellers. I know several dealers who have missed the rise in prices of these watches waiting for the prices to come down but they just haven't. Now they have realized this is the new normal. Dealers themselves are not propping up this market and while you may not be able to justify spending 100k on a steel watch, there are plenty of people who are more than happy to. Remember, it's all relative. The fact that it's a steel watch not a platinum doesn't mean shit. The PM on a watch aren't worth their weight in price difference. a 5711P sells for around 400k starting price all the way up to 750k. List was 113K. SS is 30k list and platinum is 113k list. So does that mean there is 83K worth of platinum in the 5711P? Nope. But it is in the demand. Supply and Demand dictate the market prices.

Complicated timepieces existed for years and the industry faced extinction with the advent of the quartz watch and then Genta created the insanely overpriced stainless steel sports watch that was to be a status symbol and both AP and Patek were basically saved. That may bother some people, but it's factually true. So instead of dogging the nautilus which will Not be discontinued as a line, you should be thanking it. TS has said there will be a replacement for the 5711 but since they don't want to be known for just one reference it will probably be even harder to get in the future.

As for some people comparing the nautilus to the RO Offshore that's just a joke. The Offshore is a huge watch, I own three of them and even I wouldn't buy another because while it was fun to wear a big watch when I was younger I don't see myself buying one now. The nautilus is by far the most comfortable watch I've ever worn and it's not as loud or recognizable as a rolex, not as bulky and heavy as an AP. Oh did I mention it's a Patek, the #1 watch company in the world. Is there any question why the demand is so high for it?

In regards to trends changing... There are 4,355 Daytonas for sale and just about 100 5711's for sale. That's a factor of 40x, yet Daytonas have been and still sell for a factor of 2-3 times list price and they're never going to be discontinued either. If the Rolex steel watch prices have stayed steady I think the same will be the case for the #1 watchmaker who makes 15 times less watches per year.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by kohuti02

That's true. I bought mine in early 2016 for mid $30K's.

I know, I was an idiot for not buying one back then and I really love the watch. Which version did you get?

[liljctl]

There's a story I like to repeat.

While waiting to see Scomo today his aide leaned over and said, "Nice 5712!" Did you get it from an AD or dealer?

Hahaha.

We can whinge like the poms till the cows come home there is no denying the reach that Patek has.

This thread has 8k viewed and close to a 150 replies in 5 days.

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Okay for one this is a thread about the 5711.... Not a resurrection thread about the 5270.

But to address that point I have to tell you that currently there are 108 5270's ALL of which are selling for less than list. I own one and have another on the way. You don't have to sell me on the 5270 being a great watch. I don't get it. First you say u were not fortunate to get a 5711 at list. THen you say if you did you would trade it for a 5270 or how the grand complication is the only true patek and what patek is all about. Why not just go buy a 5270 at a discount and call it a day instead of bashing the nautilus?


But to address some of your points Let's discuss some history about Patek and Hermes because Patek is following the success of Hermes and their selling techniques.

Hermes is known for quality leather goods and has been around for 184 years. Patek has been around for 182 years. In it's early days the company was on the map for smaller elite crowds only and almost unfamiliar to the masses. About 50 years ago Hermes created the Birkin handbag and decided to sell it only to those customers with high purchase history. Today the Birkin bag is still their most desired item and a status symbol known by everyone. They make a limited amount of bags but you need high purchase history to get one and they sell for 50-100% above list. No other leather goods/handbag designer can boast such a claim. The Birkin wasn't their DNA originally but it has catapulted the Hermes brand to heights they've never seen before and kept them there. Why? Because while people buy luxury items for quality, they also buy it for status.


Patek is following suit 100%. The nautilus is their Birkin bag and although it took them quite some time to figure out how to sell it, it is the status symbol they've been waiting for. About 3-4 years ago they decided to copy what Hermes has been doing at a company level. The comp watches are great and they are going to sell but not because the demand for them still exists like it should but because they're going to be required for purchase history so that someone can be offered a nautilus. How do I know this? Because even though there are only 108 5270 for sale they're still sitting there selling below list.

If this was a conspiracy by dealers/resellers who some claim to be artificially jacking up the price of Nautilus watches, couldn't they do the same for grand comps, the so called DNA of Patek? Anyone making that claim just shows me how out of touch they are with the market and resellers. I know several dealers who have missed the rise in prices of these watches waiting for the prices to come down but they just haven't. Now they have realized this is the new normal. Dealers themselves are not propping up this market and while you may not be able to justify spending 100k on a steel watch, there are plenty of people who are more than happy to. Remember, it's all relative. The fact that it's a steel watch not a platinum doesn't mean shit. The PM on a watch aren't worth their weight in price difference. a 5711P sells for around 400k starting price all the way up to 750k. List was 113K. SS is 30k list and platinum is 113k list. So does that mean there is 83K worth of platinum in the 5711P? Nope. But it is in the demand. Supply and Demand dictate the market prices.

Complicated timepieces existed for years and the industry faced extinction with the advent of the quartz watch and then Genta created the insanely overpriced stainless steel sports watch that was to be a status symbol and both AP and Patek were basically saved. That may bother some people, but it's factually true. So instead of dogging the nautilus which will Not be discontinued as a line, you should be thanking it. TS has said there will be a replacement for the 5711 but since they don't want to be known for just one reference it will probably be even harder to get in the future.

As for some people comparing the nautilus to the RO Offshore that's just a joke. The Offshore is a huge watch, I own three of them and even I wouldn't buy another because while it was fun to wear a big watch when I was younger I don't see myself buying one now. The nautilus is by far the most comfortable watch I've ever worn and it's not as loud or recognizable as a rolex, not as bulky and heavy as an AP. Oh did I mention it's a Patek, the #1 watch company in the world. Is there any question why the demand is so high for it?

In regards to trends changing... There are 4,355 Daytonas for sale and just about 100 5711's for sale. That's a factor of 40x, yet Daytonas have been and still sell for a factor of 2-3 times list price and they're never going to be discontinued either. If the Rolex steel watch prices have stayed steady I think the same will be the case for the #1 watchmaker who makes 15 times less watches per year.

This is what the kids call a “mic drop.”

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by mwireless

You don't have to sell me on the 5270 being a great watch. I don't get it. First you say u were not fortunate to get a 5711 at list. THen you say if you did you would trade it for a 5270 or how the grand complication is the only true patek and what patek is all about. Why not just go buy a 5270 at a discount and call it a day instead of bashing the nautilus?

But it is in the demand. Supply and Demand dictate the market prices.

As for some people comparing the nautilus to the RO Offshore that's just a joke. The Offshore is a huge watch, I own three of them and even I wouldn't buy another because while it was fun to wear a big watch when I was younger I don't see myself buying one now. The nautilus is by far the most comfortable watch I've ever worn and it's not as loud or recognizable as a rolex, not as bulky and heavy as an AP. Oh did I mention it's a Patek, the #1 watch company in the world. Is there any question why the demand is so high for it?

In regards to trends changing... There are 4,355 Daytonas for sale and just about 100 5711's for sale. That's a factor of 40x, yet Daytonas have been and still sell for a factor of 2-3 times list price and they're never going to be discontinued either. If the Rolex steel watch prices have stayed steady I think the same will be the case for the #1 watchmaker who makes 15 times less watches per year.

+1

Thank you.

[MinhPham]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

+1

Thank you.

Well said