the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by nda

I haven't 'picked' anything. These are the official reported cases of contraction and the official reported deaths compiled by the WHO, CDC, ECDH, NHC and DXY. The most authoritative sources - not Google. I am sorry they don't chime with your own research, but rest assured, I have not 'picked' anything - merely given you the official government figures.

Ok man. All good

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Patton250

117 cases in Malaysia, 511 in Japan, 76 in Australia and 43 in India.



Now South Korea is a big one. 7500 known in cases there. 53 deaths. That’s a .7% mortality rate. I’m sure there are more then 7500 cases but the death number has to be accurate. So .7% in reality must be lower.

My point was that cases are NOT subsiding in Asia as wrongfully claimed. Check what the numbers were for those countries a week ago.


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[StarvingBillionaire]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Now South Korea is a big one. 7500 known in cases there. 53 deaths. That’s a .7% mortality rate. I’m sure there are more then 7500 cases but the death number has to be accurate. So .7% in reality must be lower.

I've heard that South Korea has one of the world's most advanced health-care systems. And they've been testing like crazy. And so, their numbers should be more reliable than other countries.

US health agencies have been relying on the S. Korean reports, as I've heard.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

My point was that cases are NOT subsiding in Asia as wrongfully claimed. Check what the numbers were for those countries a week ago.


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The cases aren't accelerating like the initial rate or forecasted rate. Why has Hong Kong and Singapore not exploded exponentially like any of the other countries? They were 2 cities and countries that receive the most tourist from mainland China.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by StarvingBillionaire

I've heard that South Korea has one of the world's most advanced health-care systems. And they've been testing like crazy. And so, their numbers should be more reliable than other countries.

US health agencies have been relying on the S. Korean reports, as I've heard.

I totally believe that. South Korea rocks.

[nda]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

The cases aren't accelerating like the initial rate or forecasted rate. Why has Hong Kong and Singapore not exploded exponentially like any of the other countries? They were 2 cities and countries that receive the most tourist from mainland China.

All visitors with a recent travel history to mainland China within the previous 14 days are not granted permission to enter or transit Singapore.

From 4 March 2020, restrictions on entry and transit will also apply to all visitors that have travel history to Iran, northern Italy or the Republic of Korea within the last 14 days.

That's maybe why?

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

The cases aren't accelerating like the initial rate or forecasted rate. Why has Hong Kong and Singapore not exploded exponentially like any of the other countries? They were 2 cities and countries that receive the most tourist from mainland China.

Because everyone is locked up in their houses working from home and avoiding gatherings, that’s why. Singapore and Hong Kong are being avoided like the plague by global travellers. Hotels are empty, restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty.

That’s why it hasn’t ‘exploded’. Economies are struggling to keep the numbers down, entire sectors are going bust and you are wondering why it hasn’t exploded?

Take the blinders off man


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Because everyone is locked up in their houses working from home and avoiding gatherings, that’s why. Singapore and Hong Kong are being avoided like the plague by global travellers. Hotels are empty, restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty.

That’s why it hasn’t ‘exploded’. Economies are struggling to keep the numbers down, entire sectors are going bust and you are wondering why it hasn’t exploded?

Take the blinders off man


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Let me ask you this. What do you personally, your gut feeling, see as the endgame here? Both in world health and the world economy?

[Moggo]

I think comparing it to flu is a bit misleading, is flu as contagious as this virus? I’m not sure? Or is it less contagious because of the many who have a vaccine?

Those more knowledgeable please chime in?


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[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Let me ask you this. What do you personally, your gut feeling, see as the endgame here? Both in world health and the world economy?

Personally, I don’t see it as a ‘game’ as lives are at risk. Every week my kids’ school is on lock-down because a parent of one of the students finds out they have been in touch with a COVID-19 patient and won’t know for 14 days whether they caught it or not. If my kids gets it from school and we get it and the elders in our family who have underlying diseases, then we blame ourselves for letting our kids go to school.

If you ask me about my hypotheses of how this could play out, From where I sit,
Best case: come summer (July, August), the cases globally start to subside, possibly because quarantines are effective and mutations become less aggressive, the heat kills the virus, whatever. Countries and communities will slowly be able to go back to normal and hopefully next year a vaccine will be available before another possible wave comes.

Worst case, it won’t slow down in summer, keeps spreading and by end this year it has seriously stifled global mobility and as a result all our economies.


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[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I think comparing it to flu is a bit misleading, is flu as contagious as this virus? I’m not sure? Or is it less contagious because of the many who have a vaccine?

Those more knowledgeable please chime in?


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This virus has no vaccine, that’s a difference. Another difference is symptoms can take 14 days to show


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[A971]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

The cases aren't accelerating like the initial rate or forecasted rate. Why has Hong Kong and Singapore not exploded exponentially like any of the other countries?.

My take is that having been through this before with SARS, they were both extremely well prepared for this.

Singapore in particular has done a great job with updates on positive IDs and government financial support for testing and treatment. The night there was a run on toilet paper and rice the head of the largest chain of supermarkets got on TV and gave real time updates of supplies. The panic stopped.

For professionals,work from home procedures, split teams, etc went into effect very quickly.

Having said that... there is also a level of government and police control in HK and SG does not exist in what you’d call more liberal democracies. They can enforce a plan better... and I think that past experience has helped them have a better plan.

Just my take as to why those two places have succeeded in their response.

I’m in Japan. There isn’t even a CDC here... just a bunch of fumbling along with bureaucrats. The response is very similar to the US — numbers are artificially low as they are massively under testing. They didn’t cut off travel from all of China (only Hubei) and talk of asking people from China and Korea to voluntarily quarantine for two weeks and visa cancellations are only now going into effect — waaaaay too late for containment... And it’s only happening now that Xi’s state visit has been delayed. It’s a clown car here.




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[padi56]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I absolutely disagree with your infraction by stating the obvious. Are you a scientist at the front-line fighting this flu or are you taking the same backseat like everyone else in here reading newspaper articles (medical journals haven't been released, yet) meant to sell and scare us?

People die from Cancer, Diabetes, AIDS and the seasonal Flu, yet, here we are, scaremongering each other because every newspaper has nothing better to write about?

The elderly die from the seasonal Flu too; where have the consistent headlines been for the past decade besides the occasional article that's hidden away?

I'll let you answer that in order to keep this discussion on track.



I posted this a few posts back and have been following same numbers for Asian countries. It's subsided in Asia and accelerated in Europe.

As explained in the previous reply to padi; it's scaremongering.

I've traveled world-wide (literally) in the past 6 weeks. Before and during this "outbreak". Still feel fine.

You can disagree all you want to, myself plus many others in this thread thought you post was in bad taste your infraction stands.And a very very strong suggestion if I was you,dont not argue with any moderator,as you will lose the argument every time. And it will be the last time you ever-lose on forum as it will be your last post on TRF.

[superdog]

Here’s how I see all this. Forgive the analogy.

My buddies wife is off of school the next two days. They are closing down the school to do a deep cleanse and sanitize everything.

Yet, the reality is that if the school is infected, and someone is walking around with the virus, the cleanse will have done nothing and it will be reinfected the first day back.

Governments are doing the same thing. Simply because everyone is finger pointing and people need to cover their backs.

If this virus spreads as all appearances show it does, there are hundreds of thousands currently walking around with this that will never know it.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

This virus has no vaccine, that’s a difference. Another difference is symptoms can take 14 days to show


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Thank you

Is it detectable within 14 days via test though?


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[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by nda

All visitors with a recent travel history to mainland China within the previous 14 days are not granted permission to enter or transit Singapore.

From 4 March 2020, restrictions on entry and transit will also apply to all visitors that have travel history to Iran, northern Italy or the Republic of Korea within the last 14 days.

That's maybe why?

Hong Kong was one of the last to close the border to China... Yet, less cases. How do you explain for that?

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Because everyone is locked up in their houses working from home and avoiding gatherings, that’s why. Singapore and Hong Kong are being avoided like the plague by global travellers. Hotels are empty, restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty.

That’s why it hasn’t ‘exploded’. Economies are struggling to keep the numbers down, entire sectors are going bust and you are wondering why it hasn’t exploded?

Take the blinders off man


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I'm in Hong Kong. I travel to Singapore quite frequently. I'm not the one with the blinders ON.

When CL addressed the public everyone jumped to the conclusion a 3-layered surgical mask would help them dodge the virus. The city has scrutinized the government, but in this instance chose to believe her? Laughable.

Hotels have been empty and tourists have stayed away since August when the anti-Elab was kicking off.

[nda]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I think comparing it to flu is a bit misleading, is flu as contagious as this virus? I’m not sure? Or is it less contagious because of the many who have a vaccine?

Not misleading... it is thought that the transmission is roughly the same as regular flu. You're right in that we have vaccines to help combat common influenzas - but we have nothing to protect against CV-19.

The issue facing governments is quite simply this - if the transmission rate is as easy and fast as flu, but the mortality rate is higher, then it's a serious health issue and one not to be complacent about.

Right now governments are trying to slow the spread to allow time to create the massive infrastructure needed if 10% of confirmed cases need to go into ICU's.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Personally, I don’t see it as a ‘game’ as lives are at risk. Every week my kids’ school is on lock-down because a parent of one of the students finds out they have been in touch with a COVID-19 patient and won’t know for 14 days whether they caught it or not. If my kids gets it from school and we get it and the elders in our family who have underlying diseases, then we blame ourselves for letting our kids go to school.

If you ask me about my hypotheses of how this could play out, From where I sit,
Best case: come summer (July, August), the cases globally start to subside, possibly because quarantines are effective and mutations become less aggressive, the heat kills the virus, whatever. Countries and communities will slowly be able to go back to normal and hopefully next year a vaccine will be available before another possible wave comes.

Worst case, it won’t slow down in summer, keeps spreading and by end this year it has seriously stifled global mobility and as a result all our economies.


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Well first I’m going to assume we have a language barrier and that’s why you misunderstood my endgame statement. Endgame in English basically means “Play out”. Not a game. So I asked you how in your opinion you feel this will play out.

The rest of your post answers exactly what I thought you might say. Thank you for your time. Stay safe.

[nda]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Hong Kong was one of the last to close the border to China... Yet, less cases. How do you explain for that?

Schools are closed. Many businesses are shuttered. All train, bus and ferry service to mainland China is suspended, and the border with China is essentially shut down.

It is reported that the centerpiece of Hong Kong's containment strategy is aggressively tracking down suspected cases and quickly quarantining anyone who's potentially been exposed. At one point in February, the city had nearly 12,000 people in various forms of quarantine. Some are held in what used to be summer camps, others in a just-completed complex of public housing towers. Some are electronically monitored at home.

I think it is safe to say that the people in Hong Kong are extremely anxious and doing all they can to prevent the spread. Clearly the Chinese can introduce measures that would be unpalatable in the West - that may help explain how.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by nda

Schools are closed. Many businesses are shuttered. All train, bus and ferry service to mainland China is suspended, and the border with China is essentially shut down.

It is reported that the centerpiece of Hong Kong's containment strategy is aggressively tracking down suspected cases and quickly quarantining anyone who's potentially been exposed. At one point in February, the city had nearly 12,000 people in various forms of quarantine. Some are held in what used to be summer camps, others in a just-completed complex of public housing towers. Some are electronically monitored at home.

I think it is safe to say that the people in Hong Kong are extremely anxious and doing all they can to prevent the spread. Clearly the Chinese can introduce measures that would be unpalatable in the West - that may help explain how.

There has been many reports of people not adhering to the quarantine conditions.

Just completed public housing? No. These were estates where people were living next to them, hence the protests that turned into pepper spray and tear gas.

A 3-layer facemask won't prevent the virus, yet 99% of the people around have it on. I, myself, refuse to wear one.

Hong Kong and China are world's apart. The govt just gave the tender to build a quarantine site to a Chinese construction company. Another favour to the master.

[Aquaholic_user]

Why hasn't the US stopped incoming flights like many other countries? Or at least suspend some of it. I dont want infected getting into this country. Now look what happend.

SM-N960U

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Aquaholic_user

Why hasn't the US stopped incoming flights like many other countries? Or at least suspend some of it. I dont want infected getting into this country. Now look what happend.

SM-N960U

Because in this world we are interlinked one way or another. Can't just cut it off from the rest of the world.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I think comparing it to flu is a bit misleading, is flu as contagious as this virus? I’m not sure? Or is it less contagious because of the many who have a vaccine?

Those more knowledgeable please chime in?


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Mortality rates are also important. Early days, but as far as I know there are no reputable doctors which have opined that CV mortality rate is anywhere close to the flu's one tenth of 1 percent. You can argue whether it is over three or slightly less than 1 percent, depending on the country and its characteristics. But I have seen no recognized medical reports opining that the mortality rate for CV is the same as for the flu.

If someone has a link to a site where a recognized medical professional does say the mortality rate is the same, please supply it.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Aquaholic_user

Why hasn't the US stopped incoming flights like many other countries? Or at least suspend some of it. I dont want infected getting into this country. Now look what happend.

SM-N960U

I assume that they are weighing up the potential health and economic consequences of widespread dissemination of COVOD-19 versus the serious economic implications of sealing the border (or at the very least making it much less porous). It's a bit of a fudge but Western governments are in a damned if we do, damned if we don't scenario currently.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Aquaholic_user

Why hasn't the US stopped incoming flights like many other countries? Or at least suspend some of it. I dont want infected getting into this country. Now look what happend.

SM-N960U

US has stopped flights from some areas. And passengers from some areas.

The question is how far you go vs. damage to livelihoods. I would prefer that we cut down more flights. But I understand the counter argument.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I assume that they are weighing up the potential health and economic consequences of widespread dissemination of COVOD-19 versus the serious economic implications of sealing the border (or at the very least making it much less porous). It's a bit of a fudge but Western governments are in a damned if we do, damned if we don't scenario currently.

Agreed. There are no easy answers.

[nda]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

There has been many reports of people not adhering to the quarantine conditions.

Just completed public housing? No. These were estates where people were living next to them, hence the protests that turned into pepper spray and tear gas.

A 3-layer facemask won't prevent the virus, yet 99% of the people around have it on. I, myself, refuse to wear one.

Hong Kong and China are world's apart. The govt just gave the tender to build a quarantine site to a Chinese construction company. Another favour to the master.

You asked me to try to explain the slower spread in Hong Kong.

I think I did that. In fact you've partly explained it yourself.

[mountainjogger]

US State department has now upped its advisory that Americans not travel by cruise ships.

Here is the link to the state department website.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...2EgWiKr6B0EseM

And here is the advisory.

Passengers on Cruise Ships

U.S. citizens, particularly travelers with underlying health conditions, should not travel by cruise ship. CDC notes increased risk of infection of COVID-19 in a cruise ship environment. In order to curb the spread of COVID-19, many countries have implemented strict screening procedures that have denied port entry rights to ships and prevented passengers from disembarking. In some cases, local authorities have permitted disembarkation but subjected passengers to local quarantine procedures. While the U.S. government has evacuated some cruise ship passengers in recent weeks, repatriation flights should not be relied upon as an option for U.S. citizens under the potential risk of quarantine by local authorities.

This is a fluid situation. CDC notes that older adults and travelers with underlying health issues should avoid situations that put them at increased risk for more severe disease. This entails avoiding crowded places, avoiding non-essential travel such as long plane trips, and especially avoiding embarking on cruise ships. Passengers with plans to travel by cruise ship should contact their cruise line companies directly for further information and continue to monitor the Travel.state.gov website and see the latest information from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html

[77T]

The idea of cutting off air travel is part of a containment strategy. It might buy some time to institute stronger detection measures.

It could be done - after the 9|11 attack it was done in US. But that didn’t solve the root cause. Eventually we resumed air travel then, and would need to do so in this instance.

With no vaccine to prevent COVID-19, non-pharma interventions to stem spreading coronavirus must shift.

Shift the focus from containment to personal protective measures, “social distancing” measures, and environmental steps like strong surface cleaning measures.

The end result doesn’t solve the other problems with the overall community transmission rate. We will need to run this gauntlet until we can turn the corner on protective measures stemming the spread rate.




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[nda]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

US has stopped flights from some areas. And passengers from some areas.

The question is how far you go vs. damage to livelihoods. I would prefer that we cut down more flights. But I understand the counter argument.

I agree.

Let's not forget that we are talking about the largest economy in the world (GDP) - the USA. I am not American, but have many friends who are...

It would be an utter disaster if this thing caught hold in the US. Economically and, of course, for those individuals who catch it.

I was once described in business as someone with 'constructive paranoia' i.e. I hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Just what's needed here I reckon.