the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[emersm]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

The only argument of merit he posits is the one many people have already been talking about - how much are we willing to sacrifice economically in order to flatten the curve and save lives?

That and the lock down lasting only two weeks. I think it would be extremely difficult to enforce a lock down lasting more than a month.

[emersm]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Thanks, brother. I appreciate seeing other opinions (and knowing what else is out there). My son is in medical school and we talk daily about Covid-19 and all the ideas floating around about it.

Best of luck in this time of challenges

I enjoy this thread and reading the different opinions and points of view. Not to mention the wealth of information that people a lot smarter than me are providing.

Be safe and best of luck to you and your family

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by huncho

my dad passed away today due to pneumonia caused by the virus. he was on a ventilator for 3 days and everything was looking a lot better then his heart just stopped. its really no joke, stay safe everyone.

58 years old and completely healthy, unbelievable

Sincerest condolences for your loss

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by sickened1

For folks in SoCal (mainly LA County):

https://csungis.maps.arcgis.com/apps...554e8bfa156668

Jesus - this definitely makes things hit hard/closer to home. Relieved to see 0 cases currently in our neighborhood (Rancho Park/Cheviot Hills) but concerning to know we are surrounded by it on all sides!

[77T]

Originally Posted by emersm

That and the lock down lasting only two weeks. I think it would be extremely difficult to enforce a lock down lasting more than a month.

I’m thinking we will begin to see a “layer cake” approach. Just using my area as an example.

As we finish the 2-week National voluntary isolation request this Monday, March 30th - our County laid on a new, more restrictive involuntary lockdown. The County closed all non-essential businesses and restricted all modes of unnecessary personal travel until April 13th (exception is mass transit). By then, the Governor could issue a statewide order extending lockdowns even further.

I’m not complaining - just explaining it might not be the same for everyone.

Take a look at how Florida has roadblocks on the only highway in/out of the Keys.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/loc...241554796.html

And now authorizing checkpoints for routes to/from New Orleans.
https://about.bgov.com/news/florida-...rom-louisiana/




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[BBL]

Originally Posted by superstarmar

Thought I’d share this article and update ...
Don’t know if anyone has seen this yet.

https://www.teaparty247.org/dr-fauci...s-a-must-read/

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’d be more inclined to read the entire report rather than trust a political publication that cherry picked a paragraph. Thanks anyways I hope that’s true.

New England Journal of Medicine editorial:

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
March 26, 2020
N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1268-1269
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMe2002387

List of authors.
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

.............................. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 (in entirety)

quoting a paragraph from report above:..........

"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 ..........."


(searched for and submitted for those that find it beneficial )

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by BBL

NIH report:

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
March 26, 2020
N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1268-1269
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMe2002387

List of authors.
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 (in entirety)

.......... "
On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 ..........."

Thank you for finding the entire article/report DM .

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by emersm

That and the lock down lasting only two weeks. I think it would be extremely difficult to enforce a lock down lasting more than a month.

Yes, good point. It will have to go longer than two weeks, but I don't think we'll be indefinite, as the author suggests. Current medical hopes are that Covid-19 behaves like most flus and dies quicker in the warm months. Nothing's guaranteed, of course, but that's probably a safe assumption.

Another challenge brought on is the uneven way states are handling the stay at home suggestions. Fewer than half of US states are under a stay at home order. This isn't helping.

[swatty]

Originally Posted by huncho

my dad passed away today due to pneumonia caused by the virus. he was on a ventilator for 3 days and everything was looking a lot better then his heart just stopped. its really no joke, stay safe everyone.

58 years old and completely healthy, unbelievable

So sorry to hear that, my condolences

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by huncho

my dad passed away today due to pneumonia caused by the virus. he was on a ventilator for 3 days and everything was looking a lot better then his heart just stopped. its really no joke, stay safe everyone.

58 years old and completely healthy, unbelievable

My deepest condolences to you and your family. Prayers are with you all during these beyond painful and stressful times.

I would like to thank you for sharing such personal and saddening news with our community here. I can't imagine the shock and sorrow you and your family are going through right now.

This really is a tragic pandemic that should be treated with the utmost seriousness.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by huncho

my dad passed away today due to pneumonia caused by the virus. he was on a ventilator for 3 days and everything was looking a lot better then his heart just stopped. its really no joke, stay safe everyone.

58 years old and completely healthy, unbelievable

I will add my voice to the chorus of sincere condolences in this thread. We are all thinking of you.

I was 30 years old when my dad died at 59. I wish you and your family peace and comfort during this difficult time.

[BBL]

.
.
.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...postcount=4238

Originally Posted by superstarmar

Thank you for finding the entire article/report DM .

You're welcome, Mario.
This forum is a place where we help one another, and that should really be the focus. We are all anxious, some more than others.

Thank you for bringing it to my (and others who have chimed in) attention to your post.

Stay safe, be well.


DM

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by BBL

NIH report:

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
March 26, 2020
N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1268-1269
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMe2002387

List of authors.
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

.............................. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 (in entirety)

quoting a paragraph from report above:..........

"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 ..........."


(searched for and submitted for those that find it beneficial )

That’s from a month ago.

USA had 59 cases.

I understand there is reassurance in this report, but in the month since it was written nothing reassuring has actually happened anywhere in the “west”...just more spread and fatalities, so I’m not sure why this article keeps coming up. It’s old news and old data..

Let’s get some data now that this is happening:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/n...YwgRlVSGoA1g7g

[77T]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That’s from a month ago.



USA had 59 cases.



I understand there is reassurance in this report, but in the month since it was written nothing reassuring has actually happened anywhere in the “west”...just more spread and fatalities, so I’m not sure why it keeps coming up. It’s old news and old data..

I believe people miss the point of the paper if one only focuses on the numbers. It was only published 2 days ago.

Remember papers are published after several weeks of peer review, editing and publishing processes. So, while the numbers are out of date upon publishing, the expert opinions are not necessarily wrong.


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[fmc000]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What about the authorities who failed to shut airports when this was starting? Shouldn’t they fall into this category as they knew the situation and facilitated their travel.


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No because at that time the "I stay at home" Decree was not promulgated yet.

Inviato dal mio SM-T719 utilizzando Tapatalk

[BBL]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That’s from a month ago.

USA had 59 cases.

I understand there is reassurance in this report, but in the month since it was written nothing reassuring has actually happened anywhere in the “west”...just more spread and fatalities, so I’m not sure why this article keeps coming up. It’s old news and old data..

Possibly because it is a written report about trend at that time by Dr. Fauci and others.

I only found it to provide the entire context, from the published report, of which a singular paragraph from a news outlet seemed to be an issue for one of the members here.

We all know the statistics are always changing with every appearance by the experts.

Be well.
DM

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by 77T

I believe people miss the point of the paper if one only focuses on the numbers. It was only published 2 days ago.

Remember papers are published after several weeks of peer review, editing and publishing processes. So, while the numbers are out of date upon publishing, the expert opinions are not necessarily wrong.


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I did not know that. I know he wrote it a month ago but I didn’t know it was just published the other day. If that’s true and you are correct. His peers are standing by the numbers that say things we’re not really supposed to talk about here. Thanks man.

[BBL]

Originally Posted by huncho

my dad passed away today due to pneumonia caused by the virus. he was on a ventilator for 3 days and everything was looking a lot better then his heart just stopped. its really no joke, stay safe everyone.

58 years old and completely healthy, unbelievable

So terribly sorry for your loss. May he rest in peace. Prayers for you and your family to be strong in his memory.

DM

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by 77T

I believe people miss the point of the paper if one only focuses on the numbers. It was only published 2 days ago.

Remember papers are published after several weeks of peer review, editing and publishing processes. So, while the numbers are out of date upon publishing, the expert opinions are not necessarily wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Regardless of that, It seems to be used as a springboard for Coronavirus marginalization campaigns to be launched from. That’s unfortunate

[77T]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Regardless of that, It seems to be used as a springboard for Coronavirus marginalization campaigns to be launched from. That’s unfortunate

I agree - using that paper to press a marginalization agenda is much worse than anyone dismissing the conclusions due to numbers in paper not matching the wildfire of new numbers.


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[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That’s from a month ago.

USA had 59 cases.

I understand there is reassurance in this report, but in the month since it was written nothing reassuring has actually happened anywhere in the “west”...just more spread and fatalities, so I’m not sure why this article keeps coming up. It’s old news and old data..

Let’s get some data now that this is happening:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/n...YwgRlVSGoA1g7g

I can appreciate your zealousness but here’s
today’s stats . Pretty much in line with what
has already been assessed from even a month
ago . Still in the 1 to 2 % percentile death rate .
While no deaths are acceptable it’s similar to
a seasonal influenza, per reports .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[RWH]

Originally Posted by superstarmar

I can appreciate your zealousness but here’s
today’s stats . Pretty much in line with what
has already been assessed from even a month
ago . Still in the 1 to 2 % percentile death rate .

Looking at those numbers there are still about 118,000 that have yet to recover. We can't be for sure that they'll all recover.

[Ny325]

Being from NYC, this is unreal. It's like living in a sci-fi movie Thank you to all the medica/emergency workers. NYC is going through some tough times now. God Bless.

[joeychitwood]

The numbers, mortality rates, recovery rates and all other parameters can be debated endlessly. However, right now in major state-of-the-art Emergency Departments, ICUs and academic hospitals, patients are overflowing on cots in the halls. Refrigerated trucks are being procured for body storage. And doctors and nurses are getting sick and dying of the disease they are so courageously battling. Name another time in modern medicine in the world when this has happened? Mortality rates be damned, this is an absolute disaster of proportions not seen in decades.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

The numbers, mortality rates, recovery rates and all other parameters can be debated endlessly. However, right now in major state-of-the-art Emergency Departments, ICUs and academic hospitals, patients are overflowing on cots in the halls. Refrigerated trucks are being procured for body storage. And doctors and nurses are getting sick and dying of the disease they are so courageously battling. Name another time in modern medicine in the world when this has happened? Mortality rates be damned, this is an absolute disaster of proportions not seen in decades.

Ive heard Cuomo and a few others state they are doing okay for now. They are worried about potential overflow. But for the moment, they are keeping up.

And my doctors, who’s husband is in Teaneck, said the same thing.

I know they are prepping for the worst. As they should. But even on the more liberal channels they are saying, while they are looking to get more resources, they are currently keeping up.

Definitely a disaster.

But apparently the spread is also slowing.

Just stating what I’ve seen and heard.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by superdog

Ive heard Cuomo and a few others state they are doing okay for now. They are worried about potential overflow. But for the moment, they are keeping up.

And my doctors, who’s husband is in Teaneck, said the same thing.

I know they are prepping for the worst. As they should. But even on the more liberal channels they are saying, while they are looking to get more resources, they are currently keeping up.

Definitely a disaster.

But apparently the spread is also slowing.

Just stating what I’ve seen and heard.

This, even gov Murphy has had to change his tune today, total of 65 vents In use in nj, they didn’t say if that was corona related or not

steve

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

The numbers, mortality rates, recovery rates and all other parameters can be debated endlessly. However, right now in major state-of-the-art Emergency Departments, ICUs and academic hospitals, patients are overflowing on cots in the halls. Refrigerated trucks are being procured for body storage. And doctors and nurses are getting sick and dying of the disease they are so courageously battling. Name another time in modern medicine in the world when this has happened? Mortality rates be damned, this is an absolute disaster of proportions not seen in decades.

Originally Posted by superdog

Ive heard Cuomo and a few others state they are doing okay for now. They are worried about potential overflow. But for the moment, they are keeping up.

And my doctors, who’s husband is in Teaneck, said the same thing.

I know they are prepping for the worst. As they should. But even on the more liberal channels they are saying, while they are looking to get more resources, they are currently keeping up.

Definitely a disaster.

But apparently the spread is also slowing.

Just stating what I’ve seen and heard.

Originally Posted by dimag333

This, even gov Murphy has had to change his tune today, total of 65 vents In use in nj, they didn’t say if that was corona related or not

steve

Prayers definitely going out to our fellow patriots and
citizens in NYC and the New England area .
My brother n law is the CFO of one of the large hospitals
in NE Florida and he said they don’t have any Covid-19
cases/patients yet but are preparing.

[superdog]

Fauci is also saying he believes that those that have had it and recovered, are immune. He admits not enough evidence just yet. But he stated emphatically that this is his belief based on what he has seen.

[scarlet knight]

Wonder if there is or will be a coherent plan to respond to the virus? Seems like everything is made up on the fly. I’m not being political, it seems to be the case from country to country. Certainly, there is no coordinated global procedure. The virus knows no borders. I think it would be good to formulate a plan of attack.

[dimag333]

We will get mandatory real lockdown it looks like for Tri state for 2 weeks, but it’s all good, whatever gets us through the fastest is best, our schools are week to week after 4/20 they said

steve