5711 in a bubble or the new norm?

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

I’ve been following LVs for the last three years, as I seriously considered breaking my “one-watch” rule last year. I’ve passed on the LV, but follow them still. Yes, right now, they look like they’re all $12k plus, with the Flat Fours in the $20k+ range. Disconcerting. However, I just think there’s a bigger market for the LVs amongst new buyers and collectors than the 5711/5712. Different forces are driving LV prices. I’d be absolutely stunned to see a non-Flat Four hit $30k. I wouldn't, on the other hand, be surprised to see 5711/5712s go to $60k—assuming if PP does something with them in the near future, such as limiting supply or discontinues the models.

No, I don’t see every ad. However, anecdotally, I’ve got about 20 U.S. based flat fours saved in my Chrono. None have moved in a year.

Your LV prices are way lower than the ones I'm looking at. And yes, the LV is cheaper than a 5711, but we knew that.

PP already limit the supply of these watches, that's partly why they are expensive.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Your LV prices are way lower than the ones I'm looking at. And yes, the LV is cheaper than a 5711, but we knew that.

Really? Try WatchRecon. You'll see at least seven LVs between $10.5-12.8k range. Look at the last 31 days, and you'll also see one for a few dollars under $10k. The fact is, quite a few can be had for under $13k. Chrono has nine for under $13k, and the cheapest two are in the $10k range.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Really? Try WatchRecon. You'll see at least seven LVs between $10.5-12.8k range. Look at the last 31 days, and you'll also see one for a few dollars under $10k. The fact is, quite a few can be had for under $13k. Chrono has nine for under $13k, and the cheapest two are in the $10k range.

Apologies, I'm looking at flat-fours (like that makes a difference - but it does!).

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Apologies, I'm looking at flat-fours (like that makes a difference - but it does!).

Not to worry. The LV is a great watch. Although, I've never understood the fuss about the Flat Four bezel.

[Basel_World]

Flat fours are selling very regularly on Chrono; I am following them via „saved search“.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Aw, c'mon, now you're just pulling numbers out of your arse.

my 0.5 should have been a pretty blatant tip off that i was pulling your collective legs a bit, heh.

but overall, i stand by my %ages. time shall reveal more. the "markets" took a nice little crap off of crAAPL today. and we aren't even warmed up, yet.

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

the "markets" took a nice little crap off of crAAPL today. and we aren't even warmed up, yet.

True, the only wildcard will be at what point the Fed caves. Whatever action they take will only be a temporary boost to markets though. Headed much lower.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rollyp

True, the only wildcard will be at what point the Fed caves. Whatever action they take will only be a temporary boost to markets though. Headed much lower.

The Fed has never caved as it raised straight into all their crashes. it's been a constant pump and dump since 1913.

blow the bubble, crash it, buy it all back pennies on the dollar and render mom and pop bagholders. worked every single time. and this next crash will be worse than 2008 methinks. they are gearing up to restructure this untenable debt ponzi with something along the lines of the IMF's SDR, maybe even a crypo SDR which would force a cashless brave new world upon everyone; something they've been wanting and planning since the 70s.

wealth inequality is now as bad or worse than it was in 1929. who knows what % of PP collectors are truly in the 1%, esp re the sports watch demographics.

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

The Fed has never caved as it raised straight into all their crashes. it's been a constant pump and dump since 1913.

blow the bubble, crash it, buy it all back pennies on the dollar and render mom and pop bagholders. worked every single time. and this next crash will be worse than 2008 methinks. they are gearing up to restructure this untenable debt ponzi with something along the lines of the IMF's SDR, maybe even a crypo SDR which would force a cashless brave new world upon everyone; something they've been wanting and planning since the 70s.

wealth inequality is now as bad or worse than it was in 1929. who knows what % of PP collectors are truly in the 1%, esp re the sports watch demographics.

By cave I mean try and come to the rescue by first changing their hawkish stance (check), then actually cutting rates, and finally starting a new version of QE or whatever they call it this time. Count on it.

I agree things could get worse and definitely more prolonged than 2008, which was super quick, btw.

[ts3]

Well... 2008 may have been superquick in the US... Not so much across Europe in general and not at all in countries like Italy and Spain.

Below a couple of data points at what price 5711s did or did not sell pre xmas:

Meertz in Munich sold a new blue 5711 from 2018 pre xmas within days asking EUR 46.5k. Don't think he let it go for anything less than EUR 45k.

At the same time new blue 5711s w asking prices closer to EUR 50k or beyond didn't seem to get moved at all pre xmas and Meertz has been unable to move both a like-new blue 5711 from 2014 asking EUR 44.9k and a new white 5711 from 2018 asking EUR 42.8k.

[Calatrava r]

Market on SS sports is probably declining from the peak mania. Its hard to spend crazy dollars on a SS watch when your portfolio is down 20 to 25 percent. Hopefully, the downturn is short lived and we can marvel at SS Nautilus at 100K and above.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by rollyp

True, the only wildcard will be at what point the Fed caves. Whatever action they take will only be a temporary boost to markets though. Headed much lower.

Actually, that will be determined by PE ratios which by recent historical levels are approaching very healthy levels. The current situation has nothing to do with 2000 where the PE of GE was 60 for a 10 percent annualized growth company or 2008 where investment banks were selling worthless mortgage security bundles. We are experiencing an inverse relationship between corporate and economic health and stock prices.

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Actually, that will be determined by PE ratios which by recent historical levels are approaching very healthy levels. The current situation has nothing to do with 2000 where the PE of GE was 60 for a 10 percent annualized growth company or 2008 where investment banks were selling worthless mortgage security bundles. We are experiencing an inverse relationship between corporate and economic health and stock prices.

Appreciate the input but respectfully disagree. While GE is in the toilet, we now have FAANG, whose valuations were based on projections that are now clearly not being met. As earnings decline, PE ratios will contract. When the market bottoms, PE ratios will be well below the historical average, which will be the time to buy. We are nowhere near that point.

And as for the economy, if you follow the right indicators, it ain't so rosy. The economy will follow the market down and then the market will decline further and it will become a bit of a vicious cycle until it ends. And I would argue that the problems beneath the surface are far worse than 2000 and potentially even worse than 2008. I tried warning about it here back in May but this is a watch forum where everyone is excited about watches so these things generally fall on deaf ears. Let's let things play out instead. I can assure you it will be one hell of a ride, and we ain't seen nothin' yet.

[GB-man]

If I’m sure of anything it’s that nobody knows jack squat regarding the direction the market is headed in 24 hours let alone a year. Some will make the right bets and some won’t.

[sdh1980]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

FWIW WF sold a 5712 @ nearly £45k ($57000) two days ago. I know because it disappeared and they emailed me several times to try to get mine i refused to sell them after a lowball. So these pieces are moving at these prices.... and now they don't have one

I think the 5711's are moving too.... slowly but at a true market price they don't move lightning fast.

I still think the upward price momentum has got to be sowing though.

I noticed that one too Tyler.....it went pretty quickly and was (very) slightly cheaper than a couple of the blue 5711's they have on there. No white versions at all though :(

I don't know whats going on with their silly offers recently. They offered me £8000 for my 116520 recently, yet advertise similar models for £16k.

[karasus]

Originally Posted by sdh1980

I noticed that one too Tyler.....it went pretty quickly and was (very) slightly cheaper than a couple of the blue 5711's they have on there. No white versions at all though :(

I don't know whats going on with their silly offers recently. They offered me £8000 for my 116520 recently, yet advertise similar models for £16k.

Daytonas have been in a bubble for quite a while, hyped even more by the Paul Newman. 5711 is at 50k euros is almost 60k USD which is definitely a bubble, at that price you get 3700, 5402 and other "original" discontinued vintage pieces. Dealers have been buying it up like crazy, then reselling to other dealers turning it into a game of Daytona hot potato.

I think the 5711 will come down but still be above retail prices. If you look at similar 3800s they are less looked at by speculators but have a strong real demand by collectors and wearers. I think the 3800 reflects more the real demand behind nautiluses which should be priced on the 2nd hand market around the lower 30k USD slightly above retail but less than current levels.

Don't think people who bought at 5711 retail have to worry but if those who spent 50k-60k are in for a blood bath.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Appreciate the input but respectfully disagree. While GE is in the toilet, we now have FAANG, whose valuations were based on projections that are now clearly not being met. As earnings decline, PE ratios will contract. When the market bottoms, PE ratios will be well below the historical average, which will be the time to buy. We are nowhere near that point.

And as for the economy, if you follow the right indicators, it ain't so rosy. The economy will follow the market down and then the market will decline further and it will become a bit of a vicious cycle until it ends. And I would argue that the problems beneath the surface are far worse than 2000 and potentially even worse than 2008. I tried warning about it here back in May but this is a watch forum where everyone is excited about watches so these things generally fall on deaf ears. Let's let things play out instead. I can assure you it will be one hell of a ride, and we ain't seen nothin' yet.

agreed, to a point. astonishing that someone would invoke GE and PE ratios and compare to today. 2008 was a bit more complex than the above observation heh. GE and my fave DB are in essence zombies that will be bailed out by their respective govs.

and if you think FAANG is ludicrous, which it is and then some, check out r2k (russell 2,000) which had at times shown a PE of infinity (ie incalculable)! you can thank experimental and insane monetary policy for these kinds of distortions in price discovery (a term that is a great big lol today).

what's coming down the pike is going to be a spectacular reset, all planned many decades ago.

[np2016]

The federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell at an event today. Just said the fed is going to be more accommodative aka dovish with interest rates and realizes the market turbulence they have caused recently. They see the 10 year treasury yields dropping like a rock and ism report slowing first time in 2 years. They just set a bottom in or close to a bottom for the financial markets whether right or wrong can be argued. Every financial investor knows you never fight the fed with your investing strategies ever.

[rolexpatek363]

I'm active on a couple of other online forums, and people have been gleefully predicting a stock market meltdown/crash for at least the last five years. Ambrose Evans Pritchard at the Telegraph has been predicting imminent doom for the same period of time, all with enormous certainty, and I have to say more than a little glee.

Even a stopped clock...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbGWQlEnNcQ

The truth remains - no-one knows what will happen to the stock market in the next two hours. It's all speculation. Same goes for Nautilus prices.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I'm active on a couple of other online forums, and people have been gleefully predicting a stock market meltdown/crash for at least the last five years. Ambrose Evans Pritchard at the Telegraph has been predicting imminent doom for the same period of time, all with enormous certainty, and I have to say more than a little glee.

Even a stopped clock...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbGWQlEnNcQ

The truth remains - no-one knows what will happen to the stock market in the next two hours. It's all speculation. Same goes for Nautilus prices.

the doom & gloomer's analyses have been spot on, it's just they keep underestimating the extreme manipulations and central planning. the timing is not as important as the eventual outcome, which will be something...drifting from the arena of the unwell straight into the apocalypse.... heh

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by np2016

The federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell at an event today. Just said the fed is going to be more accommodative aka dovish with interest rates and realizes the market turbulence they have caused recently. They see the 10 year treasury yields dropping like a rock and ism report slowing first time in 2 years. They just set a bottom in or close to a bottom for the financial markets whether right or wrong can be argued. Every financial investor knows you never fight the fed with your investing strategies ever.

he will raise again. they always do. remember Bernanke on eve of meltdown exclaiming with utmost certainty, "subprime is contained"? yeah, these people always deliver.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by np2016

The federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell at an event today. Just said the fed is going to be more accommodative aka dovish with interest rates and realizes the market turbulence they have caused recently. They see the 10 year treasury yields dropping like a rock and ism report slowing first time in 2 years. They just set a bottom in or close to a bottom for the financial markets whether right or wrong can be argued. Every financial investor knows you never fight the fed with your investing strategies ever.

pretty sure its damage control. they didn't cause the turbulence. Rates are artificially low and need to go up. With all this trade chaos they probably should hold off though.

Nothing like whats going on now has happened with the other rate hikes, its the other stuff that is causing the market problems

The tax cuts last year probably masked some of the issues. Companies got a windfall which should have juiced stocks but they went sideways most of the year because the uncertainty regarding things like trade.

[tng11]

Man, whatever happened to just buying and enjoying?

I personally don't care where the value of my 5712 is going. Even if there is a surefire crash, I'm not selling as I'm enjoying the watch a ton. If heaven forbid, the day comes where I have to sell, the market price then is what it is.

I get it if you're looking to buy that you might not want to overpay. I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not you're comfortable with spending extra money weighed against how long/if you are on the list at an AD. But if you're thinking of spending the money, but couldn't take a drop in value, then maybe it really isn't affordable to you. Just sharing my thoughts.

And I will freely admit last year I might have gone out of control in the craze of everything and overspent. I reshuffled my collection to a level that I'm far more comfortable with, and where I don't have to speculate or worry about where the market's heading.

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by np2016

The federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell at an event today. Just said the fed is going to be more accommodative aka dovish with interest rates and realizes the market turbulence they have caused recently. They see the 10 year treasury yields dropping like a rock and ism report slowing first time in 2 years. They just set a bottom in or close to a bottom for the financial markets whether right or wrong can be argued. Every financial investor knows you never fight the fed with your investing strategies ever.

Famous last words! As I said the other day, the Fed will cave and once this bear market rally is over it will roll over again and then rate cuts, new QE, etc. I just don't think it's going to work this time. Enjoy the bear market, it's gonna be a long one.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Famous last words! As I said the other day, the Fed will cave and once this bear market rally is over it will roll over again and then rate cuts, new QE, etc. I just don't think it's going to work this time. Enjoy the bear market, it's gonna be a long one.

long and deep. (deeper than 2008 when next trough is reached.)

we need to rename this the Patek Ponzi thread soon.

[jenniferjanef]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

long and deep. (deeper than 2008 when next trough is reached.)

we need to rename this the Patek Ponzi thread soon.

LOL

[AK797]

Fed have to be careful they don't cave and are seen to be independent and not being railroaded like many others are being.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

FWIW WF sold a 5712 @ nearly £45k ($57000) two days ago. I know because it disappeared and they emailed me several times to try to get mine i refused to sell them after a lowball. So these pieces are moving at these prices.... and now they don't have one

I think the 5711's are moving too.... slowly but at a true market price they don't move lightning fast.

I still think the upward price momentum has got to be sowing though.

Interesting they called you back, did you give them a chance to offer you a better price? Would be interesting to know how high they would have gone, suspect they have a buyer waiting already.

[wisguy]

Originally Posted by tng11

Man, whatever happened to just buying and enjoying?

I personally don't care where the value of my 5712 is going. Even if there is a surefire crash, I'm not selling as I'm enjoying the watch a ton. If heaven forbid, the day comes where I have to sell, the market price then is what it is.

I get it if you're looking to buy that you might not want to overpay. I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not you're comfortable with spending extra money weighed against how long/if you are on the list at an AD. But if you're thinking of spending the money, but couldn't take a drop in value, then maybe it really isn't affordable to you. Just sharing my thoughts.

And I will freely admit last year I might have gone out of control in the craze of everything and overspent. I reshuffled my collection to a level that I'm far more comfortable with, and where I don't have to speculate or worry about where the market's heading.

Fully agree, my thoughts exactly, only better articulated.

[KetaPatek]

from a successful trader & analyst -- the charts are something to ponder:

https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/04/the-ugly-truth/