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28 July 2020, 12:48 AM | #61 |
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Future price trends don't really matter to me since I rarely sell a watch - but I'd note that the goods (autos, jewelry, furniture .... ) that have gained substantially in price over the years are those that were produced in small quantities and designed by an artist who developed an international reputation (Gerald Genta in this case, as with the AP Royal Oak).
Although I have and like several Rolex models, as mass produced items I would not expect much long term appreciation, in contrast to the 5711 which meets the criteria I have noted. |
28 July 2020, 02:23 AM | #62 | |
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28 July 2020, 04:12 AM | #63 | |
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28 July 2020, 04:15 AM | #64 |
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Indeed, but that’s not what drives these prices. The irony is that the demand is driven by the perception that its something that increases in value, as soon as it won’t have for a while, it could indeed lose favor with a community that hasn’t cared much for the Nautilus for long enough.
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28 July 2020, 09:48 AM | #65 | |
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There may be some truth in this, but desire to own what many think is an amazing watch also drives demand ... I bought my 5712 and 5167 to wear and own forever , and don’t care if they end up selling for less than msrp 20 years down the road. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro |
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28 July 2020, 10:28 AM | #66 | |
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28 July 2020, 03:10 PM | #67 | |
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Greetings from Switzerland Remember, the dignity you surrender at your AD‘s doorstep will never be recovered by wearing the watch he may get you. |
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28 July 2020, 03:50 PM | #68 | |
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28 July 2020, 07:29 PM | #69 |
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Wow...a lot of emotions here, of course nobody wants to end up paying huge premium and later end up with watch being available at retail or even less with tax free...but thats the (potential) price of the hype...
My 2 cents, history is good teacher, if something was sold at retail 5 to 10 yrs ago why wouldnt it be sold again. In 2016 have bought my Jumbo in AD with 5perc discount...covid19 may bring that time sooner than we think... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
28 July 2020, 11:05 PM | #70 | |
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This.... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
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28 July 2020, 11:20 PM | #71 |
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29 July 2020, 07:17 PM | #72 |
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29 July 2020, 09:06 PM | #73 |
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I love the Nautilus.
And I’m fine with paying over. But not for a simple three hander. To me, I like the complications and those are the only ones that are “worth it” imo. But to each their own. I don’t see prices ever dropping significantly. Too many people want them. Too few watches. Law of supply and demand.
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29 July 2020, 09:14 PM | #74 |
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29 July 2020, 10:55 PM | #75 | |
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clearly, that is impossible to tell. But if a worldwide pandemic does not slow down the demand side, I cant imagine what will.
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30 July 2020, 12:15 AM | #76 |
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A world wide world war and the great depression didn’t slow down the demand for watches either. But somehow pocket watches still bit the dust. It helps to view things from the cultural perspective too aside from the purely economical one. Demand isn’t just fueled by money. Things change, people change, preferences change, hence demand changes. Stainless steel integrated bracelet sports watches are all the rage today. In a few years they might not be. Doesn’t matter how the economy and luxury consumption purchasing power looks like if the apetite for the good itself has waned.
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30 July 2020, 12:36 AM | #77 |
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Patek limits production and distribution of these for a reason.
Unless they reverse course on this or the economy really collapses to the point that potential buyers of these are DIRECTLY affected, then I see no reason for prices to fall back to retail. There is simply too much money chasing too few goods. Also, dealers who paid big $$ to have these to resell aren't suddenly going to have a fire sale to cut bait and run...so no pricing on these will not implode. |
30 July 2020, 12:43 AM | #78 | |
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30 July 2020, 01:03 AM | #79 |
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Apparently possibly maybe at some unknown time in the future things may be different or maybe they won’t. Great discussion.
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30 July 2020, 01:28 AM | #80 |
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Although Patek is a much different company than, say, Hublot, were folks here saying the same thing about Hublot's everlasting hotness way back when? I have only been here about four years, and don't really know anything about former "flavors of the month/year/decade" but I can imagine that sometimes things go out of fashion.
To me, $60k for a simple SS three handed, but pretty watch, seems difficult to sustain. I agree that Patek leverages its hotness to bring folks into the showroom, and sell them other watches in the hopes of one day getting a Naut. So they have a real vested interest in keeping the Nautilus hot. But lots of things in fashion don't stay forever fashionable. We'll see. I have no dog in the race. I'll never be able to get one at retail and will never pay gold/platinum perpetual calendar money for a simple SS watch.
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30 July 2020, 02:17 AM | #81 |
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Don’t see why Nautilus prices would soften.
I have a 5990and could make an argument for the prices of this model softening as it’s a bit niche. That said, it probably won’t have a long production run so maybe prices will hold. The 5711 though is a true classic. It has legendary status due to its connection with the Royal Oak and Gerald Genta. It is one of the watches that changed the market. And along with the Royal Oak, looks basically the same now as it did nearly 50 years ago! How many products look identical (to the untrained eye) 50 years on? People talk about the Submariner being an iconic design, and in some ways it is, but it looks nothing like the original, and is significantly different even to the 5-digit references. In my view, the Nautilus is under-appreciated because it is seen by many as a basic watch which in many ways can’t really justify the Patek badge. But...in terms of design, it is almost untouchable. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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30 July 2020, 02:42 AM | #82 | |
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and only time will tell. great discussion. I would be that this the market doesn't soften. But we will see.
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30 July 2020, 03:23 AM | #83 | |
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30 July 2020, 03:25 AM | #84 |
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You should see the price for R Mille “simple 3 handers” lol
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30 July 2020, 03:27 AM | #85 |
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so grateful that those do nothing for me.
I have enough problems as it is.
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30 July 2020, 03:29 AM | #86 |
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I could more easily imagine 5711s priced at six digits than I can most RM's being worth more in ten years than they are now.
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30 July 2020, 04:51 AM | #87 | |
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*Unchanged for 50 years* * Iconic design* *Legendary status -> only been really hot less than 5 of those 50 years *Untouchable* ...OK. * |
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30 July 2020, 10:57 AM | #88 |
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[QUOTE=Uros;10782000]Wow...a lot of emotions here, of course nobody wants to end up paying huge premium and later end up with watch being available at retail or even less with tax free...but thats the (potential) price of the hype...
My 2 cents, history is good teacher, if something was sold at retail 5 to 10 yrs ago why wouldnt it be sold again. Not my view of history. A Ferrari 250 had an MSRP in the ‘60s of $30,000. Now a million. |
30 July 2020, 12:22 PM | #89 | |
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- Sites/Blogs/Businesses that are purely dedicated to watches and are successful - Explosion of social media and it's influence on every human being - Exploitation of scarcity and exclusivity by luxury goods companies - Massive worldwide trend towards casual work settings, casual clothing, casual social gatherings, etc., all of which put a higher demand and value on stainless steel and sport watch models - Lack of options to earn a meaningful return outside of equity markets All of these things (and more) have created a legitimate industry - what we now call the watch market. Yes, there is now a "watch market". Just like there is a stock market, an art market, a collectible car market. Macroeconomic factors will impact the watch market just like it does other markets...it won't be immune to ups and downs. All of this noted, do I think things will ever go back to "the way they were"? Where watches are available at boutiques at SRP? Or, that premiums will disappear on whatever watches are currently "hot"? That the secondary market will go away? To be direct - Not a chance in hell. |
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30 July 2020, 01:48 PM | #90 |
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I wish 5711 prices would drop but i highly doubt it :/
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