Grey prices

[mml4]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

MSRP+10%?

Nigel, get down to your AD once things open up and place you’re order. I’ll be amazed if one doesn’t come through for MSRP in next to no time.
Then put the 10% towards something else.

AD’s have been calling around asking if their clients are still interested in purchases. That’s unheard of last couple of years. The market has already markedly shifted in favour of the buyer and will continue to do so.

Only entertain Grey prices when they are below MSRP.

This!

[EEpro]

Any GMT at MSRP via AD this year. I was told this much at my AD in a major market and my purchase history with him is only $20K in SS sports.

To me this implies that gray will have to be closer to MSRP soon as they are only satisfying a 3 month itch not a 1-3 year one.

[SUPERDOC]

Again, I think the Vitriol against people hoping for better prices is unnecessary and reflects more poorly on the person making such a statement.

None of us are "Scavenging Vultures" and I don't think any of us are trying to insult those who paid a premium, or trying to take away the "I'm special because I got this piece" sash that many seem to be wearing...

Very few of us are claiming that the watches are worthless, or will be selling at "TJ Maxx".

We may have a number in our minds, and are aware enough to take an educated guess of prices coming down given word events, and are following trends to get an idea of if/when to strike..

I don't see this as being any different than being on a wait list...

I'm waiting for my price... Just as many are waiting for theirs - at MSRP, or other..

If I'm waiting for a pepsi to be ony 1-2k above MSRP before feeling good about the purchase price, why does that make me a worthy of your ire?

too many are easily offended...

As for the prices falling - You guys have to step back and wait for a while..

#1. it is still early.. many are not currently desperate...

#2. Think about things from a seller's perspective - what incentive do they have to drop the prices so dramatically ? They are not in a place where they need to liquidate, and for many buyers, the "price in their Head" is still above MSRP..

They will test the waters gradually - Why drop a Daytona from 22k down to 14k if there are plenty of people who will jump at 18- 19k? ..

Many have been waiting many years - so they may have vowed "if it ever goes to 18.5k, I'm in!"

the wild cards will be in how many of those individuals will still be in a position, or mood, to pull the trigger.. (I have to admit, I don't think I would buy even at MSRP right now, because it feels uncomfortable to buy when people around me are struggling - I buy watches to celebrate, there is little to celebrate right now... I have come to the realization that I'd be happier paying more money if it meant I could celebrate with others, instead of having a cupcake with a single candle in it - of course I may not be the majority, but I'm sure I' not the only one)

The second wild card will be the Private sellers... but again, we likely won't see many on line - with the super fakes, coupled with desperate times, I would not be convinced of a authenticity, and I don't think they'll find a great enough audience to be a threat to trusted greys..

So In summary - a harsh reality is that prices are softening, you are just kidding yourself if you think otherwise...

They will continue to come down.. for many, they will come down to their individual "buy Price", and this also means that others will get theirs at the AD for their buy price - (of MSRP, or even less)..

Everyone who will get a piece (for the most part) will be true watch lovers - this should be celebrated among is - not resented..

Those angry at the change should take a step back.

But, remember, things will happen organically, and slowly - the only thing questionable is the expectations that people have that it should be overnight - the current world of "instant gratification" has been one of the driving forces of this mess in the first place - it is completely unrealistic.

As interesting as I find the subject, I have to admit, that these threads are starting to follow a tired formula -

Someone puts up a post about falling prices - someone with "Daytona/BLRO/ and or Hulk in his profile makes an angry statement - others post random arbitrary examples of prices from some guy in Bora Bora on Chrono24 - someone maks a disparaging comment about Grey dealers - thread gets closed -

rinse and repeat --

We should resolve to find a different perspective on this issue to discuss

[IR201]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

Again, I think the Vitriol against people hoping for better prices is unnecessary and reflects more poorly on the person making such a statement.

None of us are "Scavenging Vultures" and I don't think any of us are trying to insult those who paid a premium, or trying to take away the "I'm special because I got this piece" sash that many seem to be wearing...

Very few of us are claiming that the watches are worthless, or will be selling at "TJ Maxx".

We may have a number in our minds, and are aware enough to take an educated guess of prices coming down given word events, and are following trends to get an idea of if/when to strike..

I don't see this as being any different than being on a wait list...

I'm waiting for my price... Just as many are waiting for theirs - at MSRP, or other..

If I'm waiting for a pepsi to be ony 1-2k above MSRP before feeling good about the purchase price, why does that make me a worthy of your ire?

too many are easily offended...

As for the prices falling - You guys have to step back and wait for a while..

#1. it is still early.. many are not currently desperate...

#2. Think about things from a seller's perspective - what incentive do they have to drop the prices so dramatically ? They are not in a place where they need to liquidate, and for many buyers, the "price in their Head" is still above MSRP..

They will test the waters gradually - Why drop a Daytona from 22k down to 14k if there are plenty of people who will jump at 18- 19k? ..

Many have been waiting many years - so they may have vowed "if it ever goes to 18.5k, I'm in!"

the wild cards will be in how many of those individuals will still be in a position, or mood, to pull the trigger.. (I have to admit, I don't think I would buy even at MSRP right now, because it feels uncomfortable to buy when people around me are struggling - I buy watches to celebrate, there is little to celebrate right now... I have come to the realization that I'd be happier paying more money if it meant I could celebrate with others, instead of having a cupcake with a single candle in it - of course I may not be the majority, but I'm sure I' not the only one)

The second wild card will be the Private sellers... but again, we likely won't see many on line - with the super fakes, coupled with desperate times, I would not be convinced of a authenticity, and I don't think they'll find a great enough audience to be a threat to trusted greys..

So In summary - a harsh reality is that prices are softening, you are just kidding yourself if you think otherwise...

They will continue to come down.. for many, they will come down to their individual "buy Price", and this also means that others will get theirs at the AD for their buy price - (of MSRP, or even less)..

Everyone who will get a piece (for the most part) will be true watch lovers - this should be celebrated among is - not resented..

Those angry at the change should take a step back.

But, remember, things will happen organically, and slowly - the only thing questionable is the expectations that people have that it should be overnight - the current world of "instant gratification" has been one of the driving forces of this mess in the first place - it is completely unrealistic.

As interesting as I find the subject, I have to admit, that these threads are starting to follow a tired formula -

Someone puts up a post about falling prices - someone with "Daytona/BLRO/ and or Hulk in his profile makes an angry statement - others post random arbitrary examples of prices from some guy in Bora Bora on Chrono24 - someone maks a disparaging comment about Grey dealers - thread gets closed -

rinse and repeat --

We should resolve to find a different perspective on this issue to discuss

Good points! Again, this notion that price and value has nothing to do with a 'true watch lover' is ridiculous to me. As a watch lover, I can get and experience more watches if they are less expensive to purchase and/or the pieces I have to trade are worth enough. Sure there are some who are just speculating etc. and I get why people would be bitter about them soaking up some of the hard to get pieces, but I feel like a lot of people are probably like me, just figuring out the next move for the collection and factoring in price and value.

Now given today's economic climate, with the stock market and job losses and everything else, it goes without saying the most important concern is people and their families' welfare. But beyond that, when we get to something like watches, it is reasonable to try to understand the economic/market trends based on others' experiences. So let's say there is a combination of events which all affect each other:

1. People's jobs, income, the market, etc.
2. Grey dealer prices.
3. Trade in value.

I think most people are experiencing something in the number 1 category (and if you are not congrats to you). So why is it unreasonable to understand what is happening in the 2 and 3 categories, including to see whether drops in number 2 allow you to compensate for the hit to number 1 and still enjoy the hobby as before (again if you are able).

[marinemaster]

It all depends how many jobs are lost in US that pay $150,000 a year and higher and have $50,000 bonus a year or higher and $50,000 in stock or higher a year.
Not exact number but you get the idea.

[Bizcut1]

Vultures on the branch. At least own it. Methinks thou dost protest too much.

[IR201]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Vultures on the branch. At least own it. Methinks thou dost protest too much.

You know they say Shakespeare wrote King Lear during quarantine due to plague. I'd rank you quoting him in a Rolex forum as a close second accomplishment.

[Mervynilous]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Vultures on the branch. At least own it. Methinks thou dost protest too much.

Just curious: are the inflators of bubbles vultures?

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Mervynilous

Just curious: are the inflators of bubbles vultures?

It seems like it’s the patient buyer who didn’t overpay and is excited it’s crashing down that’s the vulture...

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Mervynilous

Just curious: are the inflators of bubbles vultures?

No they are just stealing generational wealth from the future by devaluing the currency. The Rolex buyers trying to get MSRP without a hookup are way worse.

[SUPERDOC]

Originally Posted by EEpro

No they are just stealing generational wealth from the future by devaluing the currency. The Rolex buyers trying to get MSRP without a hookup are way worse.

Ok, I normally abhor the way these threads turn into name calling and us all coming down to the lowest common denominator.. but this had me laughing out loud...well played, and every now and again, sarcasm does read well on line... ;)

A bigger question is why this forum doesn't allow "like" or @tagging...
In a lot of ways this forum is a lot like Rolex itself ... successful, with no need to adopt the trends, and evolving slowly...

[Boaters]

So tired of the same old posts. A lot of things are happening in our world that are ugly but this lusting for lower prices gets really old like listening to a broken record. Nuff said.

[nigelUK]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

MSRP+10%?

Nigel, get down to your AD once things open up and place you’re order. I’ll be amazed if one doesn’t come through for MSRP in next to no time.
Then put the 10% towards something else.

AD’s have been calling around asking if their clients are still interested in purchases. That’s unheard of last couple of years. The market has already markedly shifted in favour of the buyer and will continue to do so.

Only entertain Grey prices when they are below MSRP.

I'm already on a list (supposedly) . . . hopefully you're right, although I'll settle for things to reach a realistic pricing level, as opposed to totally bottoming out.

[AJMarcus]

Thirty days from grays might be paying us to clear out their inventory. Well maybe not but if logical prevails their prices will steeply drop just like auto sales. .

[IR201]

Originally Posted by Boaters

So tired of the same old posts. A lot of things are happening in our world that are ugly but this lusting for lower prices gets really old like listening to a broken record. Nuff said.

To me it’s about wondering when and if watch prices will be commensurate with the broader economic climate. It’s an interesting question including to shed additional light on the relationship between the two. I think, in fact I personally know, you can be curious about this without wishing for economic harm to come to grey dealers or anyone really. I’ve actually bought from some greys recently as a way to support those I appreciate working with in these different times. Hardly a vulture or lusting mentality. One size does not fit all.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[myusernamez]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

MSRP+10%?

Nigel, get down to your AD once things open up and place you’re order. I’ll be amazed if one doesn’t come through for MSRP in next to no time.
Then put the 10% towards something else.

AD’s have been calling around asking if their clients are still interested in purchases. That’s unheard of last couple of years. The market has already markedly shifted in favour of the buyer and will continue to do so.

Only entertain Grey prices when they are below MSRP.

this. AD's are calling people to unload their own stock. These prices are a joke and paying above MSRP is a fool's game.

[DJ39]

Two tiers have developed which is why you see the same prices and lower prices simultaneously.

A. There are grey's and private sellers that are posting at one month old prices and not reducing them. These are the people that expect things to end sooner or later and want to keep prices as consistent to last month as possible in order to save their margins.

B. There are people trying to move pieces posting at lower prices trying to sell. These are people that might need to sell due to economic reasons. Which always happens, but could be more prevalent with the economic disruption.

[Theoffice]

Prices have actually gone up, can’t believe it !

[exador]

Even DavidSW is beginning to feel the pinch.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Boaters

So tired of the same old posts. A lot of things are happening in our world that are ugly but this lusting for lower prices gets really old like listening to a broken record. Nuff said.

Well we gave the posters who kept posting about it when the market was steaming hot and rising exponentially.

Its the opposite now so we can complain about the bombardment of threads in the reverse direction. Goes both ways.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by exador

Even DavidSW is beginning to feel the pinch.

He eventually has to come down to market. $17k+ for a BLRO these days is absoulute fantasy land when you can get them in the 14s already from big grays and mid to low 14s in private sales on facebook groups.

These are going to 13s next week and lower beyond.

[JK911]

I’ve realized a lot of people on this forum just HAVE to post about how much they dislike these threads. Instead of you know... ignoring them.

[Commonproject]

Instead of locking these threads the mods are now straight up deleting them like the tracker thread. Must've pissed of they grey sponsors

[BillA]

In my opinion......anyone wanting to get their favorite SS Professional model at MSRP or close to MSRP needs to wait a little longer. I believe it will happen. Why? Right now you are seeing the stock market come back up again, the Dow has climbed back to the 23K range. I personally believe that cannot be sustained because we have not seen the new sales/earning of large corporations that are shut down. The recent spike in the DJIA is all emotional buying. The real economic statistics have not set in, because they have not been reported yet. All large companies are pulling back their earnings forecast for 2020 and have remained mum on their forecast. When June 30th rolls around and we see some earnings reports, the market will take a big correction. Even when the economy is back “open”, we just don’t start at where we left off before this virus. The workforce will have to trickle back, not come back all at once. There will not be a demand initially for products due to lack of income.
So bottom line, be patient and you will get your call or price.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Instead of locking these threads the mods are now straight up deleting them like the tracker thread. Must've pissed of they grey sponsors

You are seriously mistaken if you think that this is the reason.

[CaptainJackParo]

I would think prices drop in the short term simply due lower demand until people are back at work and are confident in spending money again. Since the Rolex factory is temporarily closed, it could push prices way back up with increased demand and basically no new supply. So for those if they’re looking for an investment piece or their grail watch that was previously selling way over MSRP, now might be a great time to start looking.