Is the market that bad ?

[Deepsea Florida]

I was going to raise some cash by selling a Smurf. I was hoping to at least get what I paid retail at my AD in 2019.

Boy was I mistaken. I called Bob’s watches and they said they would take it on consignment and charge 17.5%. They weren’t interested in buying outright. They said sales price would be like $40,000 (so I would only get back $33,000.) holy guacamole !

Also David SW has one on their website for $59,575. Yet I called a salesman at David SW….nice guy. He talked to David and said David wasn’t interested. Didn’t even give me a ballpark price. I might go to big local jewelry exchange in Miami and see if I can get an offer. For such a crappy amount I might be keeping it.

[pursang_]

Yes, greys are saturated with inventory.

[Spartyfan6262]

Originally Posted by Deepsea Florida

I was going to raise some cash by selling a Smurf. I was hoping to at least get what I paid retail at my AD in 2019.

Boy was I mistaken. I called Bob’s watches and they said they would take it on consignment and charge 17.5%. They weren’t interested in buying outright. They said sales price would be like $40,000 (so I would only get back $33,000.) holy guacamole !

Also David SW has one on their website for $59,575. Yet I called a salesman at David SW….nice guy. He talked to David and said David wasn’t interested. Didn’t even give me a ballpark price. I might go to big local jewelry exchange in Miami and see if I can get an offer. For such a crappy amount I might be keeping it.

Interesting information. Thank you for sharing.

[Miker86]

Now’s definitely not the time to sell. Too much anticipation of prices continuing to slide.

[HMHM]

I wouldn't be surprised if greys were keeping lots of inventories in anticipation of the market continuing its upwards trajectory. Now is not the time to sell or to buy. Just hold if you can unless you need the money for something urgent.

On a separate note, this is the true confidence of the greys towards the market. All the YT videos saying its time to buy is nothing but a false facade trying to prop up a disappearing market.

[Litflynt912]

The big greys who have a ton of inventory can sit all year and keep asking the high prices.
Which they will. The small time back pack dealers will liquidate at the best price they can get. This is going to play out all year and into next.
I think we’ll get back to 2019 pricing eventually. It’ll just take time.

Neo-vintage market is a good bellwether

A 114270 explorer sits now at around low to mid 6k but someone posted a $5,400 14270 and it was gone within an hour. So there’s a floor to where a buyer would jump in.

Subs are starting to see the 8’s (14060 and 16610)
In 2019 an explorer was around 4-4.5 and a sub was in the high 6k range.
Once we see something close to that. I think we’ll be at or near the bottom.

Again. I could be dead wrong. Just my back seat quarterbacking

[HideMyWalletPlease]

I would agree that the greys probably have a lot of inventory. I think over the past 2 years many people unloaded watches and took the profits. The secondary market prices were so high that AD customers were accepting watches that they didn’t need and they sold many of them. So now the greys have a a lot of inventory that they paid top dollar for. As the market corrects, I would expect them to try buy lower and improve their average cost per model.

Also, this whole scenario makes me laugh at people who obviously don’t love watches and they are just trying to make a profit. It’s not that easy because of the difference between retail, wholesale, how fast it will likely sell and if the grey really wants it. This is not directed at the OP but more directed at the people who come on here asking newbie flipper questions.

[Deepsea Florida]

I daily my black 116610LN…………..thinking/trying to sell Smurf for decent price.

Saw a homeless guy begging for money with a Smurf on !

He saw my black sub and gave me a dollar !

[Kinnakeet]

Just sold David a smurf not long ago and got good money for it, but lower than they offered a year ago. The local AD called my husband after a almost 2 year with with the new WG Sub so we put the money towards that.

They did mention that they were not purchasing GS or Omega, or most Rolex. Said they had lots of them, including the new GMT’s. But since, I have seen a new GS listed well below MSRP. An AD must have been desperate to get rid of it.

[KY..]

Is the market that bad?
I guess it depends on timing at this point.
I was able to grab a clean DD 18239 last week for 12.5 usd privately and I believe that was still a good deal 5 yrs ago.
So I think being in the right place at the right time matters more than anything.

[HideMyWalletPlease]

Originally Posted by Deepsea Florida

I daily my black 116610LN…………..thinking/trying to sell Smurf for decent price.

Saw a homeless guy begging for money with a Smurf on !

He saw my black sub and gave me a dollar !

That’s hilarious

[Lunaen]

Originally Posted by KY..

Is the market that bad?
I guess it depends on timing at this point.
I was able to grab a clean DD 18239 last week for 12.5 usd privately and I believe that was still a good deal 5 yrs ago.
So I think being in the right place at the right time matters more than anything.

That’s a steal if it came with the original bracelet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Meltingicecube]

No experienced grey, I repeat no experienced grey is buying Smurfs right now! Ok maybe some grey will at half MSRP! I actually commented about ADs stuck with smurfs yesterday!

I know one AD in one of the department stores in central London stuck with a few of them! No client is even buying one at retail! I certainly wouldn't!

[Deepsea Florida]

Originally Posted by Kinnakeet

Just sold David a smurf not long ago and got good money for it, but lower than they offered a year ago. The local AD called my husband after a almost 2 year with with the new WG Sub so we put the money towards that.

They did mention that they were not purchasing GS or Omega, or most Rolex. Said they had lots of them, including the new GMT’s. But since, I have seen a new GS listed well below MSRP. An AD must have been desperate to get rid of it.

Wow, I would have just kept the Smurf. But everyone likes something different.

[dawalsh]

Originally Posted by KY..

Is the market that bad?
I guess it depends on timing at this point.
I was able to grab a clean DD 18239 last week for 12.5 usd privately and I believe that was still a good deal 5 yrs ago.
So I think being in the right place at the right time matters more than anything.

Jealous. That is a great deal.

[blargle]

Originally Posted by Deepsea Florida

is the market that bad?

yes.

and you ain't seen nothing yet:

- energy price hikes, coupled with:
- real (necessary) rate rises, to combat:
- out of control inflation, leading to:
- prolonged bear market and:
- bottom falling out of the bubble that is our housing market

people just dont get what is happening

[blargle]

Originally Posted by Deepsea Florida

Also David SW has one on their website for $59,575. Yet I called a salesman at David SW….nice guy. He talked to David and said David wasn’t interested. Didn’t even give me a ballpark price.

hahahahahahaha this is the best part

maybe David needs to raise prices again, maybe that will be the solution for him

[whiskyrolex]

Bob's and DSW will always lowball you but regardless Smurf has been one of the first pieces to be offered below retail price BNIB from grey dealers recently.

[Ensign]

It’s a bad time to buy or sell. Greys have hoards of stock that they can’t sell. The market price is MSRP for a new watch - if that. Greys are sitting on piles of used watches which they paid above MSRP for. Buyers only option is an AD; which just means you may have to wait a bit for most models. Now in a few months when greys must sell their hoards, prices will really hit bottom.

Now for the ordinary watch lover who is looking to sell, good luck. The best thing to do is just to hold on to your watch.

[Deepsea Florida]

Originally Posted by ensign

it’s a bad time to buy or sell. Greys have hoards of stock that they can’t sell. The market price is msrp for a new watch - if that. Greys are sitting on piles of used watches which they paid above msrp for. Buyers only option is an ad; which just means you may have to wait a bit for most models. Now in a few months when greys must sell their hoards, prices will really hit bottom.

Now for the ordinary watch lover who is looking to sell, good luck. The best thing to do is just to hold on to your watch.

agreed

[GB-man]

Yeah it is. Historically speaking WG Rolex were dogs. That was a 20k watch not long ago preowned.

Even funnier is all the people trying to dump 116610LVs. That was a cesspool of speculators. They are down to 20k and will be 15k by end of year at this rate.

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by HMHM

All the YT videos saying its time to buy is nothing but a false facade trying to prop up a disappearing market.

This. All this.
Nobody wants to be caught with a ticking time bomb when the music stops.

[KY..]

Originally Posted by Lunaen

That’s a steal if it came with the original bracelet.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It did and I agree it was a steal per-se, but not stollen though.
Bought it from a credible private seller who likes me.
40F5AF1A-934A-4FE8-822C-44966EEDB247.jpeg

[blargle]

Originally Posted by HMHM

All the YT videos saying its time to buy is nothing but a false facade trying to prop up a disappearing market.

exactly

[huncho]

Originally Posted by blargle

exactly

i think if you can get a deal at or around msrp it's definitely worth buying now but otherwise i agree. still some downside to go for the ones with high premiums but overall i think once greys are done dumping inventory msrp should be the floor for most models and premiums will be back

[espanol]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Even funnier is all the people trying to dump 116610LVs. That was a cesspool of speculators. They are down to 20k and will be 15k by end of year at this rate.

I never understood the huge jumps for this watch. I have vivid memories of stopping in a Rolex AD in ~2017, and seeing three of this same watch on display. I tried one on, didn't like it, but to sweeten the deal, the sales associate offered 15% off PLUS the offer to buy one of the untouched versions in the back (not the ones on the floor).

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by espanol

I never understood the huge jumps for this watch. I have vivid memories of stopping in a Rolex AD in ~2017, and seeing three of this same watch on display. I tried one on, didn't like it, but to sweeten the deal, the sales associate offered 15% off PLUS the offer to buy one of the untouched versions in the back (not the ones on the floor).

That is why they are coveted now. HYPE. No other reason, as nobody wanted them a few years ago, but now that they are discontinued the hype keeps the demand insanely high.

I would not take one for free, before or after the hype train

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by espanol

I never understood the huge jumps for this watch. I have vivid memories of stopping in a Rolex AD in ~2017, and seeing three of this same watch on display. I tried one on, didn't like it, but to sweeten the deal, the sales associate offered 15% off PLUS the offer to buy one of the untouched versions in the back (not the ones on the floor).

I have had it many times and think it’s a great watch. The dial is lots of fun. But unfortunately like the 116500s attracted the most entry level of speculators.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by KY..

It did and I agree it was a steal per-se, but not stollen though.
Bought it from a credible private seller who likes me.
Attachment 1304441

[Chester01]

I am afraid you are a bit late to the game. The Gray realizes the games up. Now, its like a lion with zebras. The Zebras see the lion, and being careful not to move, just waiting but they know what time it is. The games is up, interest rates will continue to rise, war in Ukraine will drag on with no end in site. There is simply no good news to keep supporting this absolute bananas run away market that has been going on, fueled by cheap money for over a decade. They know the market is not good, and are likely being very, very cautious. They can't reduce advertised prices too much, too fast as that can create a tsunami and very fast crash. What they are trying to do, is 1) create the illusion that all is well, by holding prices high-with likely collusion by the larger outfits and 2) ceasing buying new stock as they will get caught holding the bag. Now, they will get caught holding the bag, because who wants to buy when things are bad and have a long way to go and speculators have figured out that no one needs watches anyway and it was probably a silly idea to keep so much $$ tied up in watches. Titanic is sinking folks, and the band will play on as it goes into the water and sinks to the bottom.