Is the market that bad ?

[Polar Bear]

Big Greys will be fine
They should have enough non Rolex stock that still has some margin in it to offset the smaller losses they'll take on the pieces they bought a month ago
Combine that with all the small dealers dumping everything they have as fast as the Credit Card bills start to land for these larger dealers who still have some liquidly to scoop up and i doubt we'll see anything happen to the DSWs, Bobs or LBs of the world.

The small, "backpack dealers" who have spent the last 1-3 years surviving on a line of credit should be VERY concerned
Likewise any small dealer that has recently opened up B&M location (a few have here in Aus) in the last 12 months

Provided a whole bunch of dealers don't disappear with large outstanding credit balances from other dealers, I imagine all we'll see is a correction in the market a lot of the new faces will be back flipping burgers by Christmas 2023

Fingers crossed this all leads to an environment where when someone notices my watch in public, the first question out of their mouth isn't "what's it worth, bro?"

[moin_ali]

watches aren't investments they should be bought for pure enjoyment.
paying outrageous prices is also Crazy . Msrp plus 10 percent that's the highest I would go..

[Bobcat Sig]

Originally Posted by Ensign

Speculation is right; and speculators have left the market - aside from one last ditch effort to sell. Bag holders they are.

The only buyers left are die hard watch enthusiasts. And, I remember those guys saying the Hulk is too much green and consequently unwearable.

Brand new Hulks were like 9k. I bet a ten year old used one will go for less in a few months, assuming a buyer can be found.

I'd sport a Hulk all day for under $9k and I've been largely ambivalent about green watches.

Originally Posted by moin_ali

watches aren't investments they should be bought for pure enjoyment.
paying outrageous prices is also Crazy . Msrp plus 10 percent that's the highest I would go..

The first part, for sure. The latter... I'd like to agree, but I'd be lying if I said I adhered to that when buy my Rolex watches.

[Epanerai12]

Personally I hope it all implodes and cleanses 75% of the fair weather newbies, fly-by-night flippers and a few big greys out of this hobby and the market becomes flooded with 0-5yo rolexes at or below msrp. It will be glorious for the true hobbyists. And can go back into the AD and ask why I should buy theirs when I can get the same one new in box 15% less online. I remember those days....

Oh yeah, it's happening.....

[MoStuff]

Is the Smurf the white gold sub with blue dial? I’d keep it if so until this whole crashing market sorts itself out. I’m seeing so many watches being discounted. I’m just waiting for the best deals.


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[MoStuff]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Personally I hope it all implodes and cleanses 75% of the fair weather newbies, fly-by-night flippers and a few big greys out of this hobby and the market becomes flooded with 0-5yo rolexes at or below msrp. It will be glorious for the true hobbyists. And can go back into the AD and ask why I should buy theirs when I can get the same one new in box 15% less online. I remember those days....

Oh yeah, it's happening.....

Agree. I remember 30% off msrp for any Rolex brand new from my watch dealer on 47th street.


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[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

It will be glorious for the true hobbyists. And can go back into the AD and ask why I should buy theirs when I can get the same one new in box 15% less online. I remember those days....

Oh yeah, it's happening.....

I miss those days. They weren't that long ago either. I remember trying watches on and walking out trying to get 20% OFF MSRP. One time the SA followed me out into the parking lot ( I was always a jovial/fun customer ) trying to close me on a Coke. LOL

[russ86]

I think right now is not the best time to be selling watches

[SlideRacker]

How long before we see the next Watch Standard in the news?

[dnpina]

Originally Posted by Deepsea Florida

I do

X 2

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[MRBolton]

Originally Posted by whiskyrolex

Bob's and DSW will always lowball you but regardless Smurf has been one of the first pieces to be offered below retail price BNIB from grey dealers recently.

I think Bob’s does fair offers, but DSW seems to lowball.

[Deepsea Florida]

Originally Posted by Anestheticsaregood

Keep the watch. Wear and enjoy. These were always about how they made you feel. If you really need the money dump it for the loss. Otherwise wear and enjoy and revisit selling in 5 years

Looking more and more like the plan every day !

[Airbag79]

Originally Posted by huncho

i think if you can get a deal at or around msrp it's definitely worth buying now but otherwise i agree. still some downside to go for the ones with high premiums but overall i think once greys are done dumping inventory msrp should be the floor for most models and premiums will be back

No way premiums coming back. This market is dead for the foreseeable future. Judging by the majority of your posts, you have a vested interest in flipping.

[Moondoggy]

It's happening.

[kopi-c]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Personally I hope it all implodes and cleanses 75% of the fair weather newbies, fly-by-night flippers and a few big greys out of this hobby and the market becomes flooded with 0-5yo rolexes at or below msrp. It will be glorious for the true hobbyists. And can go back into the AD and ask why I should buy theirs when I can get the same one new in box 15% less online. I remember those days....

Oh yeah, it's happening.....

Yes!
Make automatic great again!!

[1665fan]

Yes it will be awesome when these tax master flippers who drive lambos are out of the game….. always looking to screw people over…. Good riddance

[alllexandru]

Stagflation

Things will get much worse than this.
95% of the people will have more important things to worry than greys & rolex prices

[DK7]

Originally Posted by alllexandru

Stagflation

Things will get much worse than this.
95% of the people will have more important things to worry than greys & rolex prices

But you think these 95% buy Rolex? I am not sure the richest 5% worry to much and dont buy watches anymore imho.

[alllexandru]

Originally Posted by DK7

the richest 5% worry to much and dont buy watches anymore imho.

They worry.
Market is going down all over, stocks, crypto, production, inflation, interest rates, war, hunger, etc

Estimation of gas here in europe just an example for winter 2022/2023
Bills household 2021/2022 winter - (lets say) 300 euro / monthly
Estimated for winter 2022/2023 same household - 2.000 euro /monthly
7x increase just for gas

then you have electricity, etc, 20% inflation now, who the hell knows in 4 months what will be :)

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

Big Greys will be fine
They should have enough non Rolex stock that still has some margin in it to offset the smaller losses they'll take on the pieces they bought a month ago
Combine that with all the small dealers dumping everything they have as fast as the Credit Card bills start to land for these larger dealers who still have some liquidly to scoop up and i doubt we'll see anything happen to the DSWs, Bobs or LBs of the world.

The small, "backpack dealers" who have spent the last 1-3 years surviving on a line of credit should be VERY concerned
Likewise any small dealer that has recently opened up B&M location (a few have here in Aus) in the last 12 months

Provided a whole bunch of dealers don't disappear with large outstanding credit balances from other dealers, I imagine all we'll see is a correction in the market a lot of the new faces will be back flipping burgers by Christmas 2023

Fingers crossed this all leads to an environment where when someone notices my watch in public, the first question out of their mouth isn't "what's it worth, bro?"

I happen to think the opposite. I think the big Grey’s with large storefronts and overhead that are sitting on 30 BLNR’s, 30 Pepsi’s, and 20 White dial Daytona’s that they bought at all time highs sometimes on lines of credit are going to implode. I think it’s the smaller guys that have small stores or work out if their home that are going to be fine. Anyone can be over leveraged but it’s likely to be the guy that is having to pay rent, employees, power bill, etc every month than someone who is a one man shop and has little to no overhead.

[Driver8]

I have to say I've been incredulous recently about some of the posts on various Rolex dedicated groups on FB. There's been quite a few people posting up things like, "Why has my watch gone down in value????? Everyone said I won't lose money on Rolex!!!", or "I was offered £30k by a grey recently which I declined, but now I'm only being offered £25K - what the hell is going on????". Clearly these are people who have bought for way over list, while just blindly believing the all nonsense about "investment" without a shred of understanding how economic models work.

I'm certainly not someone who gets enjoyment from the misfortune of others, but the naivety of some individuals just beggars belief at times. Many people have clearly dropped many thousands of pounds/dollars (i.e. paying way above RRP) to "invest" in Rolex watches purely on the say-so of social trends, and without any personal or prior knowledge, or understanding of economics. That people are prepared to do that is mind-boggling to me..... but then I guess that's how gallons of snake oil have been sold over the years.

[Mystro]

Trouble some that some only like particular watch models depending on their current value status. They love that model if it were “X$ value” but wouldn’t like it if it were “Y$ value”????
Do these same people put a price tag on everything in their life to correspond if they like it or not?? Money and these watches are so twisted up together for some they will never be able to relax and actually enjoy the watch itself.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by ronricks

I happen to think the opposite. I think the big Grey’s with large storefronts and overhead that are sitting on 30 BLNR’s, 30 Pepsi’s, and 20 White dial Daytona’s that they bought at all time highs sometimes on lines of credit are going to implode. I think it’s the smaller guys that have small stores or work out if their home that are going to be fine. Anyone can be over leveraged but it’s likely to be the guy that is having to pay rent, employees, power bill, etc every month than someone who is a one man shop and has little to no overhead.

Agree with this, and would add it's not a matter of large vs. small dealers, all on leverage. Large dealers naturally use leverage via LOCs/debt for all the variables you mentioned, and many small dealers have a disproportionate % of their ENTIRE worth in watches. They will get slammed as well IF this continues to move downward, and/or this is prolonged (perhaps permanent).

Anyone that bought watches in the last ~2 years to deal or "invest" are losing right now. No doubt. At the end, this niche industry of watch dealing is no different than scalping (not investing), and the products they hold are worth less and less by the day.

[DK7]

the opinions here are contradictory and very changeable. in february everyone preached here the prices can only go up and now only opinions come up the prices can only go down.
back then too much euphoria and today too much pessimism imho!

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Airbag79

No way premiums coming back. This market is dead for the foreseeable future. Judging by the majority of your posts, you have a vested interest in flipping.

i don't care for flipping, got my watches at msrp or discounts and i've only added 1 watch since 2019. that's just my opinion like you have yours, except i'm not saying it as an absolute like you are (notice how i said "i think"?). i've said many times that it can go either way and no one knows. daytonas had premiums in 2008 so you really wanna say there's no way premiums come back? they haven't even left yet for the watches i was referring to. i wasn't talking about datejusts, two tones, PMs (excluding a few), etc, when i said premiums

[rolexjackson]

Originally Posted by Lucifer

stacking up money to get into HULK, DD and Daytona.

This 10000%!

[AbeFroman]

I’m shocked how quickly some references are dropping. (Primarily the references with extraordinary gains the past year).

Certainly not the right time to buy or sell on the secondary market. In reality, market prices are much lower than what’s being listed here in the classifieds.

It’s crazy what three months can do to the market. I remember just at the beginning of the year many said this market would continue with no end in sight.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

I’m shocked how quickly some references are dropping. (Primarily the references with extraordinary gains the past year).

Certainly not the right time to buy or sell on the secondary market. In reality, market prices are much lower than what’s being listed here in the classifieds.

It’s crazy what three months can do to the market. I remember just at the beginning of the year many said this market would continue with no end in sight.

same, a few months ago when people said we'd be at msrp for a lot of watches soon i thought it was just impossible doomer talk because severe drops like that are usually due to leverage and liquidations. i guess i didn't know that the entire watch market was borrowing money lol. it will be interesting to see where the grey market settles after this versus what availability will be like at ADs

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by huncho

same, a few months ago when people said we'd be at msrp for a lot of watches soon i thought it was just impossible doomer talk because severe drops like that are usually due to leverage and liquidations. i guess i didn't know that the entire watch market was borrowing money lol. it will be interesting to see where the grey market settles after this versus what availability will be like at ADs

Right!

I think the best example would be the RG olive DD40. These touched $90k~ back in March, but now just broke into the $50k range.

I try not to mention numbers too much since some are sensitive.

[BNABOD]

I guess my theory and practice of never paying a premium is working out ok …