Is the market that bad ?

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by KY..

It did and I agree it was a steal per-se, but not stollen though.
Bought it from a credible private seller who likes me.
Attachment 1304441

Nice pickup!

Originally Posted by BNABOD

I guess my theory and practice of never paying a premium is working out ok …

This !!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

It’s crazy what three months can do to the market. I remember just at the beginning of the year many said this market would continue with no end in sight.

Proof positive that, despite how loud they yell, or how many graphs or youtube links they post, no one knows where the "market" will be next week, month or year. When I joined this forum, members and the public at large, generally purchased what they wanted to wear, could afford to purchase, and could afford have go down in value. It was a more pleasant hobby. Would be nice if we could go back to that. But I am skeptical.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by kopi-c

Yes!
Make automatic great again!!

[CoolCat#7208]

Originally Posted by HMHM

. All the YT videos saying its time to buy is nothing but a false facade trying to prop up a disappearing market.

While I agree, I also think this media attention to the markets is causing further panic, and therefore everyone who bought a ceramic sub as a short term iNvEsTmEnT is now crapping themselves because the grey dealers aren't buying them.

Additionally, I also think there is a narrative being pushed from some of these YT dealers to get prices down lower and swirl up more of this panic - once they reach a certain point, they will start buying again in preparation for an uptrend.

Big greys will continue to not be hugely affected by this. More "investable" watches (mostly discontinued ones, 5 digits etc) are largely unaffected by all of this and that is what they are dealing with. You only have to see how Roman Sharf is pushing forward even throughout this through being selective with pieces in his stock.

The worst affected in this will be the insta-dealers who have appeared in the last 2-3years. They don't have the cash flow to afford to hold even low priced popular models, and therefore need to tank their prices to gain liquidity again, because of course, in times like this, liquidity is king.

This is why we say watches should not be treated as investments...

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

Anyone worried about prices should hedge their watches via shorting WOSG! They are in big big trouble if we go to MSRP!

Can you talk us through your logic here please?

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by DK7

the opinions here are contradictory and very changeable. in february everyone preached here the prices can only go up and now only opinions come up the prices can only go down.
back then too much euphoria and today too much pessimism imho!

It’s like anything in life - people with no real depth of knowledge or understanding of a subject will be inclined to be overly positive or overly negative depending on what they’ve read or been told. Plus we have the situation with watches where those who bought high for “investment” and flipping purposes will want to do everything to keep the market strong, while those who don’t want to pay inflated prices will do everything they can to downplay the market in the hope of a crash.

As an economist I’ve tried in the past to talk about the likely pattern the market would take, but was generally met with either disbelief, yawns, or contrary views….and that’s fine, because I’m the first to admit that economics isn’t an infallible crystal ball. IMO it’s equally foolish to believe that prices would just continue to rise at exponential rates forever, as it is to believe ADs will be offering discounts any time soon.

[Meltingicecube]

Fed funds futures are now pricing a 45% chance of 100bps hike in two weeks! RMs are now down 40-50% and they produce only 4000-5000 watches a year! I think 99% of Rolex references will be trading below MSRP in 12-18 months time!

[Deepsea Florida]

Rolex just announced its moving all its boutiques into Super Walmart’s !

[Deepsea Florida]

Actually Rolex prices will actually go UP.

Look at the rate of inflation……….in 20 years my house will be worth 7 Billion dollars !

[stevestil]

greys have a ton of inventory. the big ones at least. smaller greys are panicking.

also, right now is not the time to sell. any watch dealer is waiting for you like a wolf and assume you are panic selling so they will lowball you as much as possible.

keep your watch for now unless you really need the funds but there is no scenario where you get what you want for it at this current time in my honest opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dwjpaypal]

Originally Posted by stevestil

greys have a ton of inventory. the big ones at least. smaller greys are panicking.

also, right now is not the time to sell. any watch dealer is waiting for you like a wolf and assume you are panic selling so they will lowball you as much as possible.

keep your watch for now unless you really need the funds but there is no scenario where you get what you want for it at this current time in my honest opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Personally, I think it depends on what level you bought in at. If you bought at MSRP with the aim of flipping at some point then I think that time is now. I can't see the market going back up to ATH of beginning of the year for a long time, hence why most greys are calling this a "correction".

Once the inst hype train has gone for the Rolex brand, thats it. It won't be back for a while. By the time it comes back we will be back to 2016/2017 numbers.

Lets take a Batman as an example.

Flippers were all on the list to get these pieces. In the UK- Goldsmiths particularly, the only way they were getting them from an AD is with a previous Rolex purchase or a decent spend. When you can get £18k for a £7k piece, ok, buy the datejust, sell that and break even or loose £1000 to get your spend up, no big deal. Now, when you're buying the DJ and no grey is interested in buying, or offer 30% off what you just paid for it, PLUS you're only going to get £11k for your £7k watch, all of a sudden it doesn't make sense.

So now you no longer have casual flippers interested, the AD starts to work their way down the list, next are the people who are flippers who haven't been keeping their ear to the floor, jump on any old tat the AD is selling. They get burnt immediately and learn their lesson.

Next people left are the genuine people looking to buy a £7k- £15 (for hot stainless piece)... and these, believe it or not, during a recession thats coming are not that common. So the people that want the pieces start getting them, and the greys are left with only one option, but to be cheaper than AD's. If they're to be cheaper than AD's, they need to be buying for less than retail to stay alive.

Going back to my original point. If you want out, I think it's dangerous to give advice that now is a bad time to sell. It's the right time if you need the cash and these were always going to be pieces you bought to flip. It's a bad time if you're strapped for cash and actually love the piece and may regret selling.

[Turbo Racer]

Pretty interesting thread. Read through all of it. Appreciate the varied perspectives and insights. A few thought about this stuff:

Yes. The market is really that bad when you compare it to a couple of months ago.

There is no way to separate the watch market from what’s happening to the macroeconomic climate worldwide. Some local markets will be stronger and some won’t.

Asking prices on many sites such as the marketplace here or Chrono24 appear to be out of line with sale prices to a large extent.

If you want to find out what your watch is worth, get quotes from 3-4 dealers, average them and add 10-20% markup and there you have a good barometer. If your watch goes no bid, then that model will likely see a huge price correction in the next couple of months all else being equal.

Grey dealers who will do well are those that aren’t over leveraged irrespective of size of such dealer. Smaller ones with little or no overhead will do better if not over-leveraged.

Prices continue to drop weekly in some cases. I have not seen a shred of credible evidence that this will change in the near term.

The “buy the dip” mentality remains strong among many both in the watch market and at large. I think basically this is because it has always worked in the recent past. The rules haven’t changed, but the fundamentals have.

I believe this is neither the time to buy or sell

Big money has come in and drained much enjoyment out of this hobby

[dtwer]

I think at this moment when we are at the onset of a recession and eventually stagflation, the casual Rolex flippers will be the ones hit the hardest. They are usual the last ones in and last ones out.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Pretty interesting thread. Read through all of it. Appreciate the varied perspectives and insights. A few thought about this stuff:

Yes. The market is really that bad when you compare it to a couple of months ago.

There is no way to separate the watch market from what’s happening to the macroeconomic climate worldwide. Some local markets will be stronger and some won’t.

Asking prices on many sites such as the marketplace here or Chrono24 appear to be out of line with sale prices to a large extent.

If you want to find out what your watch is worth, get quotes from 3-4 dealers, average them and add 10-20% markup and there you have a good barometer. If your watch goes no bid, then that model will likely see a huge price correction in the next couple of months all else being equal.

Grey dealers who will do well are those that aren’t over leveraged irrespective of size of such dealer. Smaller ones with little or no overhead will do better if not over-leveraged.

Prices continue to drop weekly in some cases. I have not seen a shred of credible evidence that this will change in the near term.

The “buy the dip” mentality remains strong among many both in the watch market and at large. I think basically this is because it has always worked in the recent past. The rules haven’t changed, but the fundamentals have.

I believe this is neither the time to buy or sell

Big money has come in and drained much enjoyment out of this hobby

Much agreed. Most of our somewhat bigger Trusted Sellers prices are not inline/realistic with the "true" current state of affairs and are operating as business as normal with list prices. Why I dont know. Well I know why it just doesnt make much sense. I just click off and better yet dont even both looking at there for sale ads. Granted there are some exceptions.

Will prices continue to drop or bounce back up over the next few months? Who knows really. One thing is certain though, which is no matter what prices are on the secondary market via here, Moda, Chrono and on and on, A D's will still be operating as nothing has changed.

Even if watches can be found on ALL those various platforms waaaaaay under MSRP it will still be we have nothing and demand is insane. IMO I personally dont think we will ever see watches in display cases ever again. Maybe a few Dj's at best.

[compounddavid]

It might be.

After a 4 year wait I got my SS Daytona Polar. I have a good purchase history but getting the call on July 4th, I think the market is softening. I have never sold one of my Rolex and I can say I am a real collector. I think the flippers are over-extended and Rolex is trying to get watches back in the hands of enthusiasts.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[Turbo Racer]

Sweet watch! I am patiently waiting for the call

[mario1971]

I do not understand what this lament about the low earnings on the resale of watches is supposed to serve. Could TRF be undergoing a metamorphosis from a fan forum and turned into an investment advisory forum? Is the hysteria related to the fall in prices on the secondary market affecting the psyche of those who bought speculatively and not for their collection?

[SN2354]

Is the market bad? I do not think so. Is the market pausing a bit, yes definitely. Buyers are scared to spend as the prices seem to drop weekly.

This trend will continue, but me personally I have zero luck at AD level so if something comes up at a price I am comfortable paying I am buying. I honestly do not care what happens to pricing going forward, I have a couple of watches on my radar that are forever pieces, and unfortunately they are all on the so called super VIP only list at AD level.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by Driver8

It’s like anything in life - people with no real depth of knowledge or understanding of a subject will be inclined to be overly positive or overly negative depending on what they’ve read or been told. Plus we have the situation with watches where those who bought high for “investment” and flipping purposes will want to do everything to keep the market strong, while those who don’t want to pay inflated prices will do everything they can to downplay the market in the hope of a crash.

As an economist I’ve tried in the past to talk about the likely pattern the market would take, but was generally met with either disbelief, yawns, or contrary views….and that’s fine, because I’m the first to admit that economics isn’t an infallible crystal ball. IMO it’s equally foolish to believe that prices would just continue to rise at exponential rates forever, as it is to believe ADs will be offering discounts any time soon.

First measured, intelligent comment in five pages. Thank you.

[BillA]

I don’t think we should slam the flippers, perhaps we should slam the people buying from flippers who continue the problem at buying at inflated prices.

If DSW sells a watch at 3x msrp, then why would he not continue to do so, people will keep doing this.

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by Driver8

It’s like anything in life - people with no real depth of knowledge or understanding of a subject will be inclined to be overly positive or overly negative depending on what they’ve read or been told. Plus we have the situation with watches where those who bought high for “investment” and flipping purposes will want to do everything to keep the market strong, while those who don’t want to pay inflated prices will do everything they can to downplay the market in the hope of a crash.

As an economist I’ve tried in the past to talk about the likely pattern the market would take, but was generally met with either disbelief, yawns, or contrary views….and that’s fine, because I’m the first to admit that economics isn’t an infallible crystal ball. IMO it’s equally foolish to believe that prices would just continue to rise at exponential rates forever, as it is to believe ADs will be offering discounts any time soon.

Pretty much this.

Hype and speculation driven, and man is it all SO contagious.
When you've bought a Daytona C for 40K, only to see it climb higher to 55, and to see members genuinely talk about seeing the $100K figure by the end of the year in absolute confidence, it can lead you to get delusional and too confident in spending your money in the watch market.

Issue is that they are modern watches, and they will be in production for many years to come.
They're supposed to make you feel special because of the deceptive rarity and the backed up waiting list. Thousands and thousands of availability in stock at every grey market in every corner of the world, and folks got carried away into believing this was the best place to park monkey. at 3-4 x retail.

No one has a crystal ball, but if I had to take a guess, I'd say the Daytona C amongst very few others will be the only ones that would have a decent enough premium(still alot less than the premium it has today), and the rest will essentially be so little above retail that flippers won't even bother.

Ofcourse it was inevitable. We tire of everything, even if we get carried away and live in a delusion to think that these watches are special or rare, and we have to be "worthy" of an allocation, but that is definitely not sustainable in a luxury watch market, and certainly not in a brand that is in the business of selling volume.

[SubMillennial]

Gotta wonder how quickly the waitlist length will evaporate as the secondary market of these watches, especially the non-sports models, inch closer and closer back to retail. I'm speculating there's a not-insignificant number of waitlisters that put their name down for just about anything with ROLEX on it because of the scarcity, who will find out they aren't really interested in some two tone datejust as it returns to availability. Not to mention the evaporation of flippers and those who will get cold feet in a recession.

[Bmats]

1. I also think the market has shifted and will likely continue to shift. TT and PM pieces and those less desirable historically will be at or below MSRP. Large/smart greys are managing inventory now and will make money no matter what the market ends up being. It’s the uncertainty/flux that makes it harder for them, so I think that’s why they’re holding steady and being careful — seems smart to me. Backpack sellers/flippers are in trouble — and I think there’s generally little sympathy for them anyway.

2. If you’re waiting for the SS Daytona from the AD, you’re likely going to still wait. I think it’s just a numbers game. Even if you drop all the flippers out, take away a bunch of the people who want and never would sell one, there still is more demand than supply.

3. If you want a sub or something like that, you’ll probably get it relatively quickly — and maybe immediately if PM or the sort. But I also think that if you’re a decently high salary-based, low savings, and in an industry that is about to get crushed — you may think twice about dropping $10k on a watch by the time you’re offered one.

[Mattt]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Patience will be rewarded.

Until then, smoke 'em if ya got 'em Lucifer.

Attachment 1304516

PS: I ain't selling anything, except my soul to rock 'n' roll

love the picture

[rpstrimple]

We have to be in store for a "great reset" at some point. A Japanese level crash. I don't pretend to be an economist, but I can't imagine this trajectory can continue.

The US has raised rates, sure, but is it enough? What if there is no recession, are we just kicking the asset bubble down the road? Is that the fiscal strategy?

Watches will be the last thing on the mind if such a thing happens. I am not rooting for one, but it does seem like we are standing on the edge of a cliff...

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by kopi-c

Yes!
Make automatic great again!!

Make automatic great again = totally justifies the existence of this thread!

[CoolCat#7208]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

Fed funds futures are now pricing a 45% chance of 100bps hike in two weeks! RMs are now down 40-50% and they produce only 4000-5000 watches a year! I think 99% of Rolex references will be trading below MSRP in 12-18 months time!

Not a chance I’m afraid.

There are more than enough people who can afford a Rolex (even at grey market prices) across the world who won’t feel the worst effects of the economic downturn. Demand will still be higher than supply. Sadly the people worst affected throughout this were never in a position to spend thousands on a luxury watch anyway.
Rolex make approximately 1m watches a year, but there are millions of millionaires across the world. And that’s just assuming it’s millionaires who buy Rolex’s, there’s a hell of a lot more who are just in a position to.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by CoolCat#7208

Not a chance I’m afraid.

There are more than enough people who can afford a Rolex (even at grey market prices) across the world who won’t feel the worst effects of the economic downturn. Demand will still be higher than supply. Sadly the people worst affected throughout this were never in a position to spend thousands on a luxury watch anyway.
Rolex make approximately 1m watches a year, but there are millions of millionaires across the world. And that’s just assuming it’s millionaires who buy Rolex’s, there’s a hell of a lot more who are just in a position to.

Typical of the troll nonsense that guy posts so ignore him and his wild profestations

[huncho]

Originally Posted by GW44

Typical of the troll nonsense that guy posts so ignore him and his wild profestations

comparing RM demand to rolex demand lol

[J-rob]

The problem that folks seem to keep missing is that yes there MANY people who can afford these watches during any economic situation. However that does not mean that these folks have any desire to own a Rolex.

The market was propped up by speculation, hype, and fomo. If that is gone, then there will be an eventual return to “normalcy”. There may be more millionaires now, but the number of Watch enthusiasts has not grown proportionally.