is there a crisis for our watches???

[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by aw9nineteen

Eh. That’s life, and always will be. People with money purchased land and property after 2008. Did you buy any stock in the last three weeks? While the watch isn’t a stock, it is an investment, it has to be. So yes, I am waiting until the prices normalize. To my credit, I purchased an Ivory dial DD2 back when they were still being made for 28k no taxes. I’ve bought into the market twice in two weeks. I wouldn’t say I’m a vulture.

Question, is being a vulture and an opportunist the same thing?


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This is a forum for watch enthusiasts, not investors and that is the difference. IMO, land, property and stock do not fall in the same bucket as watches. It's one thing to state facts about current watch prices, but praying for a meltdown falls in the category of a vulture.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by peterpl

This is the thing people dont realise because they never tried to sell their hyped watches yet.

I knew the market was soft already in Dec/Jan - offer prices were coming down bigtime as per my experience with my friends BLNR.

In an already softish market the corona virus has killed the watch game.

To the guys saying that they cant see anything because Chrono24 says so - go message 3-4 dealers and see their offer price right now as in todays offer for your BLNR, Hulk, BLRO or any of the other hyped SS models.

You will have a heart attack.

Absolutely right. Look at Bob’s Watches: they’ll now pay $12.5k for a 116500. Two months ago, it was $17-19k depending on white/black dial, box, papers, etc.


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[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

He will join us in the vulture flock soon, once he realizes it's more expensive being whatever he is

I'll continue to buy from my AD's, at retail, with my name on the papers. Join "us", as in forum members, when you have some watches to speak of.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Absolutely right. Look at Bob’s Watches: they’ll now pay $12.5k for a 116500. Two months ago, it was $17-19k depending on white/black dial, box, papers, etc.
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That low already? Damn

If I was a flipper right now I would want to liquidate all these asap and get whatever money I can get back even if its break even at this point.

I know Bobs and some other big grays wont even buy some watches like the BLNR.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by peterpl

That low already? Damn

If I was a flipper right now I would want to liquidate all these asap and get whatever money I can get back even if its break even at this point.

I know Bobs and some other big grays wont even buy some watches like the BLNR.

A lot of them are taking the opposite approach and holding them, which will probably change in a few weeks?

[mr_gray]

plz we're on a watch forum to discuss watches. one does not need to own watches to participate in civil discussion on a watch forum. anyone suggesting that their opinion is more valuable than another's because of what they own might be off the righteous path.

opining on the potential future state of the market that supplies watches is of central interest to people on a watch forum. doesn't make anyone a terrible person.

it is not a fun time for anyone. but we need to keep seeing silver linings and for those of us that thought we'd never get a shot at that "grail", things are looking up.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

This is a forum for watch enthusiasts, not investors and that is the difference. IMO, land, property and stock do not fall in the same bucket as watches. It's one thing to state facts about current watch prices, but praying for a meltdown falls in the category of a vulture.

No one here is praying for a meltdown... where are you getting these delusions from?

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

A lot of them are taking the opposite approach and holding them, which will probably change in a few weeks?

Change in a few weeks? LOL

There is NO WAY in the world the market is going to do a 180 and start going up within a few weeks. Its going to get worse. The entire watch game was already weak back in Dec/Jan when there was no sign of the virus yet.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Change in a few weeks? LOL

There is NO WAY in the world the market is going to do a 180 and start going up within a few weeks. Its going to get worse. The entire watch game was already weak back in Dec/Jan when there was no sign of the virus yet.

That's what I meant, go lower. I meant "change" as in the greys will probably start selling them off at lower prices.

[uhren917]

OP, lots of people on TRF with their own petty agendas. Some like to tell you what is important, others are happy to see others miserable when they paid too a high price because they could not get one from an AD. Ignore them, I do.

Bottom line is, you can see that many asset classes are distressed right now. Probability wise, if you paid high grey market prices and you need to move your watches for a quick profit, you will mostly like will take a discount. If they find a cure tmw, things may change for the better, or they may not.

Nobody here knows where the bottom or highs are or where prices will be a in a few months. If they say they know, they are full of sh*7. There are too many variables to know for sure.

[aw9nineteen]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Watches are not an investment, so who cares if they go down? I would buy all my watches all over again even if I knew they next day they would be worth $1. Because I enjoy watches period.


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Respectfully disagree. I love watches too. I also love cars, real estate, and Apple products. Just because you love something doesn’t mean it isn’t an investment.

Ever heard, “everything’s for sale”? That’s because 99% of things are. Since they are for sale or can be bought, it makes them investments. Whether or not you will buy it for $1 or $100,000 doesn’t matter.

To another poster, I don’t think anyone is waiting or hoping for the world to burn. My wife drives and X7 and I drive a Model S. Frankly, I can buy the watches I’m looking for tomorrow . Doesn’t mean I’ll overpay for them, no matter how badly I love the look, feel, or even how it makes me feel emotionally. No one wants this situation just to buy anything.


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[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by aw9nineteen

Respectfully disagree. I love watches too. I also love cars, real estate, and Apple products. Just because you love something doesn’t mean it isn’t an investment.

Ever heard, “everything’s for sale”? That’s because 99% of things are. Since they are for sale or can be bought, it makes them investments. Whether or not you will buy it for $1 or $100,000 doesn’t matter.

To another poster, I don’t think anyone is waiting or hoping for the world to burn. My wife drives and X7 and I drive a Model S. Frankly, I can buy the watches I’m looking for tomorrow . Doesn’t mean I’ll overpay for them, no matter how badly I love the look, feel, or even how it makes me feel emotionally. No one wants this situation just to buy anything.


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There's also the fact that Rolex watches hold value much better than most other brands (excluding the select few AP, PP etc) - so this also weighs into a purchase decision.

[mr_gray]

OP - i am currently sitting on a 16618 which i did want to sell in january. i figure logic of current situation is this. if i absolutely need to sell, then sell ASAP. but don't sell unless i absolutely have to.

i don't have to so i'm not, because i would make a big loss for sure. but if i was likely to have to sell at some point in next 6 months, i would sell now. because i don't see how this gets better quickly.

sars is also a coronavirus and they've been looking for a vaccine for that for 8 years without success. some magic cure for corona is not assured, and certainly not a timely cure.

[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by aw9nineteen

Respectfully disagree. I love watches too. I also love cars, real estate, and Apple products. Just because you love something doesn’t mean it isn’t an investment.

Ever heard, “everything’s for sale”? That’s because 99% of things are. Since they are for sale or can be bought, it makes them investments. Whether or not you will buy it for $1 or $100,000 doesn’t matter.

To another poster, I don’t think anyone is waiting or hoping for the world to burn. My wife drives and X7 and I drive a Model S. Frankly, I can buy the watches I’m looking for tomorrow . Doesn’t mean I’ll overpay for them, no matter how badly I love the look, feel, or even how it makes me feel emotionally. No one wants this situation just to buy anything.


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Two of my employees drive X7’s and I’m short TSLA, so we have something in common Just buy at retail from AD’s, like myself, and you won’t have many problems.

[Yess]

Definitely secondhand/grey market softening.

You will never win at the AD though (if they are open!). Prices and demand will remain as it is.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by Yess

Definitely secondhand/grey market softening.

You will never win at the AD though (if they are open!). Prices and demand will remain as it is.

I think the ADs will probably ease up as well, depending on model of course.

[epicurus]

No. They will still tell time through all of this

[seand442]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

Yes it’s true. If you buy them to wear them it doesn’t matter.

This. Enjoy your watch, turn on some Tiger King, and know that your life is pretty ok.

[JRique]

Prices will go down, I mean we will see massive cuts in 2-3 months, most of AD's will not survive this "lockdown", Grey Dealers with plenty os stock may also go out of business.

I can even see Rolex laying off people and cutting the production.

[samsmart]

Rolex may take a hit while we are in a down market, but prices will certainly come back up as the market will. I dont plan on selling anything, but instead will be searching for deals over the next few weeks & months.

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[SkyJuice]

Price is certainly dropping without a doubt.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

I think the ADs will probably ease up as well, depending on model of course.

Yeah, agreed. But really, Hulk, Sub, etc - not a chance you're getting good supply/discounts.

[GovernorsGovernor]

Originally Posted by Yess

Yeah, agreed. But really, Hulk, Sub, etc - not a chance you're getting good supply/discounts.

You sure about that? Are you new to this? 5 years ago, you could easily get a Hulk brand new from an AD in the low-$7k range. And we had maybe 4-5% unemployment? Now, we could be looking at 5x that, or more!

I don't know how old you are, but anything can happen. This virus is changing the world as we speak.

That being said, I'm not cheering for all this, just my opinion. Frankly, I have all the bs watches I need.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Jona

Buy them and wear them regardless of what they are "worth" now or will be in the future.

That advice appears to lack any empathy for what the world is going through right now. It is perfectly valid for people to hope their assets retain as much value as possible.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Watches are not an investment, so who cares if they go down? I would buy all my watches all over again even if I knew they next day they would be worth $1. Because I enjoy watches period.


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I have a really hard time believing that.

You seem way too smart for that.

Besides, if these watches had the capability to go down to zero, they would not have the same appeal, and likely this board would be empty because no one would want them.

For many, a large part of the appeal of a Rolex is the fact that they retain value. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t have the same appeal.

Everyone and anyone would be able to get them, and then no one would want them.

[Chester01]

This is real simple. For those of us that love watches because we enjoy them, this will not be an issue at all. For the gray market, those they view and buy watches ad investments, and those that buy what ever insta whatever tells them...well it’s going to be a bumpy ride, buckle up. There we many here that warned for many years that watches are not investments, for those that chose not to listen, well...good luck with things.

[superdog]

Watches are not a typical investment tool. I think most of us can agree with that.

But there is a difference between buying something as an investment and buying something and feeling comfort in the fact that it retains value.

All financial advisers today state that your primary home is NOT an investment. We would all still hope that our homes, if you have purchase one, retains value right? You would not just go out and buy a home without considering the price you are getting and the actual value.

There is nothing wrong with hoping an asset retains value. Similar to a car, a depreciating asset. No one is buying a car trying to make money. But yet, depreciation is one of the biggest factors in car buying.

Have some empathy here folks. Even if you don’t care. Realize that other people do.

[superdog]

It funny, I just bought to Pateks before this whole thing went down. My timing could not have been worse. I wanted the watches, I had the money, and I bought them. I paid way over for both.

I am not happy about it. I wish I did not buy at their high. But it won't be a bumpy ride. I don't need to buckle up. And I don't need the back handed pretentious style of "good luck" well wishes.

I don't need to sell them. I am thrilled to have them. I am wearing one right now. If I get bored with one or both, maybe I will use them as currency to buy something else. Maybe I won't. Maybe I won't want to take a big loss so I will hold onto them hoping they have more value in the future.

I will always be curious as to the actual value they have. And I sure wish they were closer to what I paid.

Does that not make sense to some of you people?

This is not black and white. And not everyone thinks like you do. Krioke, I wish people would just be nicer to each other.

[Calatrava r]

The value retention and profit potential is a big concern to many people who otherwise would never lay 10K for an item fully disposable. That being said, those people will experience anguish as the market prices drop steeply until the market stabilizes. If the shutdowns continue and it appears they will, short term, most Rolex watches will be available for a discount to MSRP. Supply will be down but demand will be down much more so in the short term. The market had turned on watches last summer and the decline in buyers of anything was already apparent in declining aftermarket prices. Daytona held up until now.

[epicurus]

Originally Posted by superdog

That advice appears to lack any empathy for what the world is going through right now. It is perfectly valid for people to hope their assets retain as much value as possible.

Dont view a watch as an asset.....but as a tool that will last you a lifetime and there wont be a problem.