Visited Boston boutique yesterday, zero supply - what is going on!?

[only1swami]

Stopped by the boutique yesterday to say whats up to my SA and inquire on a link I had ordered.

There were zero pieces available, not even a single Code.

I was told there were visitors this weekend from Dubai and Qatar who stopped by to see if they could get pieces here as UAE is also running super dry...zero luck

Seems like a similar situation at Dallas, East Hampton boutiques

the heck is going on? I thought summer would be "slow", but guess given AP production numbers and the watch climate right now, it will continue to be this way.

Not very optimistic on any allocations for the rest of the year :-/

[Vivalas]

Others will be more informed but my understanding is that AP make around 45,000 watches a year, but last year only made 37,000 so are likely playing catch up. Add in that watches in general have seen soaring demand globally as (and it pains me to say this) investments lately as interest rates are practically zero. On top of that AP has clearly moved in to another realm in terms of desirability and demand in the last year. They are in the top 3 of brands alongside PP and Rolex in terms of public perception (not talking holy trinity).

Sprinkle in the summer shut down and the fact that quite simply, they make amazing watches = no watches!

[macrowatch]

US economy super hot.

AP Brand burning even hotter.

Code not as horrible as Gen1. See other thread with epic photos of blue dial RG Code. Drool.

SA's learning (through bundle/purchase history/pure skill, etc etc etc) how to sell the only merchandise left to sell. Stores competing each other not to have their allocation reduced because they can't move product.

By comparison however, in Europe, Codes remain aplenty.

PS, who is the JV partner in Boston again, WOS?

[only1swami]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

US economy super hot.

AP Brand burning even hotter.

Code not as horrible as Gen1. See other thread with epic photos of blue dial RG Code. Drool.

SA's learning (through bundle/purchase history/pure skill, etc etc etc) how to sell the only merchandise left to sell. Stores competing each other not to have their allocation reduced because they can't move product.

By comparison however, in Europe, Codes remain aplenty.

PS, who is the JV partner in Boston again, WOS?

Material Good (Boston, Dallas, East Hampton)


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[chiscott_29]

Zero in Chicago. Obviously watches are coming in around the globe - It’s just that they are spoken for or there is an interest list for everything. They don’t make it to the display cases.

Eventually this will moderate as nothing lasts forever. That said, it is truly futile to even try to get into any of the popular watch brands right now unless you genuinely can play the long game.


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by only1swami

Material Good (Boston, Dallas, East Hampton)


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Oh yeah, MG management definitely knows how to move Codes.

I’d credit 25% of the Code shortage to their management team for better or worse.

[RyanO]

Was at the East Hampton boutique this weekend. Nice folks. Had several codes and a remaster in stock.




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[GreenLantern]

The problem is that AP (and other brands) are taking the scarcity strategy too far.

Much too far.

Everyone should be hiring watchmakers right now.

[RLXSRGN]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

The problem is that AP (and other brands) are taking the scarcity strategy too far.

Much too far.

Everyone should be hiring watchmakers right now.

I think supply has been the same if not slightly increasing but it pales in comparison to the rise in demand. I believe Rolex is now running 3 shifts in their factories just in attempt to meet the demand. This is a reason they haven't released too many "new pieces" but rather just minor changes.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by RLXSRGN

I think supply has been the same if not slightly increasing but it pales in comparison to the rise in demand. I believe Rolex is now running 3 shifts in their factories just in attempt to meet the demand. This is a reason they haven't released too many "new pieces" but rather just minor changes.

That's exactly my point.

AP, PP, and others, are leaving far too much on the table. The only people benefitting right now from this are the scalpers/flippers.

[chimp98]

I was at the Vegas boutique over the weekend and ZERO pieces in a stock. Two sales agents sitting in the back chatting with the absolute look of boredom. You can see the empty cases from 50 yards away!

But I did manage to find some Codes in town. There's a small AP shop in the Palazzo and they just got 3 Codes in on Saturday and 1 existing Code (2 of them chronos).

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[chimp98]

I also stopped by the Rolex boutique at the Wynn. Only 6 pieces in the whole store, all ladies DJ's and all precious metals only. One of the sales agents was telling me how disheartening it is to wake up every day to go to work since there isn't anything for him to sell. He's never seen anything like this before for the industry.

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[GreenLantern]

What a miserable state to be in as a store manager, or as salespeople / employees.

[GreenLantern]

It's absurd that none of the brands are putting out job listings for more watchmakers. Or maybe they are and I'm just not seeing it, but clearly they haven't been able to ramp up production in the last 6 months (or they are unwilling to).

APs were already scarce a couple years ago. If it's true that buyer population has increased by +35% because of social media and hype, then at the very least they should increase production by +25%.

And that's a lot. And it's not easy. But at this rate, there's no point in keeping any boutiques open.

[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by chimp98

I also stopped by the Rolex boutique at the Wynn. Only 6 pieces in the whole store, all ladies DJ's and all precious metals only. One of the sales agents was telling me how disheartening it is to wake up every day to go to work since there isn't anything for him to sell. He's never seen anything like this before for the industry.

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I hate to say it, but the Rolex boutique SA was not telling the truth. It’s ludicrous for him/her to suggest they aren’t getting supply. It just isn’t going in the case.

[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

It's absurd that none of the brands are putting out job listings for more watchmakers. Or maybe they are and I'm just not seeing it, but clearly they haven't been able to ramp up production in the last 6 months (or they are unwilling to).

APs were already scarce a couple years ago. If it's true that buyer population has increased by +35% because of social media and hype, then at the very least they should increase production by +25%.

And that's a lot. And it's not easy. But at this rate, there's no point in keeping any boutiques open.

Many, many luxury brands have over-produced products when times were good and demand was high and thereby totally squandered their brand’s image when demand waned. You can’t ramp up production by 25% and then just cut production if demand shrinks because of a recession or otherwise. The market will already be flooded with product. Presumably management at Rolex, PP and AP are smart enough to recognize this and avoid the same fate. Sure, they may be leaving some money on the table now, but it’s better than over-extending the company and cheapening the brand permanently. That’s a mistake that is almost impossible to recover from.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by RealMadrid1988

Many, many luxury brands have over-produced products when times were good and demand was high and then totally squandered their brand’s image when demand waned. Presumably management at Rolex, PP and AP are smart enough to recognize this and avoid the same fate. Sure, they may be leaving some money on the table now, but it’s better than over-extending the company and cheapening the brand permanently. That’s a mistake that is almost impossible to recover from.

This isn't the same situation, though.

Also, Rolex has already increased production.

And no, management is never smart enough.

I will note that Patek isn't suffering the same way AP is. I've been seeing Pateks (even Nautiluses and Aquanauts) continue to flow at a healthy rate.

[AshAP]

I wouldn’t confuse there being very few or no watches on display with the boutique selling no watches or having none to sell. I know first hand that if you let your SA know that you’re ready to transfer the funds immediately for a particular model then there are watches available.

Certainly in London they’ve even removed the display cases with Codes but that doesn’t mean that there’s nothing to sell, the boutiques have annual allocations so watches are arriving all the time, they don’t all arrive on 1st January.


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[Tomas Eriksson]

Like Ash is saying, pieces are there they are just not available for the average window shopping Joe. With that said, Im a bit surprised seeing that even newly built stores are modeled in the way with display cases and such. Feels like could have a different type of layout. How about making them more of owner clubs/lounges? Get a bar in there. I would visit boutiques way more often :P

[GW44]

I was in the Harrods Boutique about 4 weeks ago and they had about 3-4 pieces in stock - be that in the (mostly empty) cabinets or from the safe.

And to be fair there were more staff in the store than customers too.

[dismail]

Wow, are codes really that hard to find now? Was in the Long Island boutique a few weeks ago and they were trying to practically give them out…

There was a rose gold one I was tempted to pull the trigger on, but just wasn’t in love with it. I did get to try the new 43mm which was very cool!

Would post a picture but I guess I haven’t hit the requirements yet.


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