ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
|
View Poll Results: There will be a Premium for the Snoopy 50? | |||
No premium, maybe will get at discount | 26 | 15.38% | |
$1000-5000 | 60 | 35.50% | |
$5000-10000 | 40 | 23.67% | |
Above $10000 | 43 | 25.44% | |
Voters: 169. You may not vote on this poll |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
17 November 2020, 12:18 AM | #1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Crystal ball game
Let’s play the Crystal ball game, for fun.
Keeping in consideration all the information we gathered, the new Omega business model, the COVID19 effect, and the differences in list’s rule (US, Asia, Europe... etc), what is your feeling on the value of the New Snoopy on the secondary market: 1. It will not have a premium (might even resell at discount ~15%) 2. It will have a premium $1000-5000 3. It will have a premium $5000-10000 4. It will have a premium >$10000 My bet is that the reference will be at option 4 for the first year. It might drop a bit going to option 3, when they will deliver the first bunch of watches and reopen the lists in US. It may have some long term appreciation when the reference will be discontinued (realistically 2025). This only if Omega maintains the low rate of productions and the flippers are kept under control. What do you guys think? |
17 November 2020, 01:55 AM | #2 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Thanks to the first voters!
So far no votes for option 1, quite interesting, as some early comments on this reference were on the line “this will be Oprah style, everybody gets a Snoopy 50” and “Omega is owned by Swatch, so they are for profit, so they will flood the market”. To revise some of the tubers opinions: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WwWRo8VHDSg&t=15s He is envisioning an hefty premium. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YIYXmgzIPAI&t=1273s He was also envisioning a premium. Not that I necessarily trust their judgement, but just to put together the pieces of the puzzle. Do we have any commentator that is putting this reference at No premium or at discount? My feeling is that the Snoopy will never be on display (at OBs and ADs), which is something I really like. |
18 November 2020, 11:45 AM | #3 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2020
Location: USA
Watch: Rolex & Tudor
Posts: 2,110
|
Personally I'm just hoping for a standard speedmaster professional with the 3861 movement and an adjustable clasp. Would love to still have the hesalite crystal. Hopefully no added thickness to the case design, would be great if thin. Bonus points if the bracelet is smooth, comfy, and tapers.
|
19 November 2020, 04:35 AM | #4 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Quote:
Then, the Snoopy came. Anyway, thanks to all the participants. So far about 89% see the reference coming with a premium on the secondary market. We will see who is right, sooner or later! I don't think we will have many pieces available in the market soon, if we get any between now and March, I bet someone will try to sell for an initial premium above 10K. After we are done with the initial craziness, maybe it will stabilize around 5-6K. |
|
22 November 2020, 04:49 AM | #5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 997
|
I posted a reply but for some reason it never registered...
Almost too lazy to post again. But here’s my two cents: Every watch brands wants to have a halo watch. It’s that watch that drives interest in the overall brand, and keeps customers interested. How many of us have AD relationships with Rolex to get those hard to find references? Omega could not have wished for anything better, not only is this that halo watch for the overall brand, but it’s a halo watch for the Moonwatch family of watches - their most historied family. The Snoopy line is going to lift the entire Omega brand, and it will sell a LOT more standard Moonwatches, especially after they put the 3861 movement into the standard Moonwatch. Omega will keep the quantities low on the Snoopy 50, no more than 5k watches the first year, and then a trickle the next 2-3 years after that. Maybe 2-3k watches/year. They will do this not because they want to establish an aftermarket premium on the Snoopy 50 (they’re trying to vet every customer to make sure they aren’t flippers, and actual buyers). They are going to do it because they finally have a halo watch now, and they will protect that. The high aftermarket premium will be a by product of this. It would be foolish to sell a few extra thousand Snoopys, when they can sell 50 thousand more standard 3861 Speedmasters. And why have the watch not be a limited edition with a numbered set? So customers can keep coming in to ask about it, and instead buy a standard Speedmaster or look at all the other watches Omega has to offer. When they hold the supply to Snoopy 50 to this trickle, the premium is going to be at least 50%+. |
22 November 2020, 10:26 AM | #6 | |
Banned
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: uk
Posts: 496
|
Quote:
I think now we've seen the bond and this watch as non LE it does look at least like they might start to adopt the LP stratergy instead and long term may reach that 'submariner' status for the 'seamaster' motif I agree this is the perfect watch to do that with as a starting point and I for one laughed at the people who were typing "It's not limited i'm going to wait until next year and grab one" from the 5th October |
|
25 November 2020, 01:22 AM | #7 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Well well well, we can make some partial conclusions:
- Vast majority of the participants (>87%) expect a premium for the Snoopy - 45% envision a premium that will be 5K or above Now, I'm convinced Omega created the perfect recipe to make this watch desirable and to support the value retention. Omega has the power of making this work and as Rollieo says, create a halo watch. Omega and ADs have also the power of destroying this very easily, with one single move just putting the watch on display for sale. Since all the pieces are already assigned, this should never happen. Plus, they are not so naive and they know very well how to play this game. Flippers control and availability in the store are key. The first watches are expected for the holiday season in Europe and US. We will see what happen by the end of the year. If the number of Snoopy available on the secondary market stays contained, this will be a big success for the brand and for the Speedmaster lovers. I'm also happy this is not a LE. This business model works well with "steel sport hard to get" references. We have one that is exactly like that, has the new movement and the caseback complication (first time for a Speedy). This is a winner! |
25 November 2020, 03:37 AM | #8 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: FL
Posts: 181
|
Omega PLEASE!
Dear Omega, Please give us an Omega Speedmaster Professional with a ceramic bezel insert, a plain steel caseback, panda dial with a red second hand. Oh, one more thing...please have the entire watch brushed finished Last one I promise...please knock off all the Limited Edition BS, and easy on all the "moon" references Thank you |
25 November 2020, 10:58 AM | #9 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 997
|
Quote:
This is like asking Rolex to give us plenty of panda white dial chronograph with ceramic bezel in stainless steel. Well guess what, they won’t do it. Why? Obviously because it will dilute the Daytona. It’s not so special if all the watches have the same features. Omega reserves panda dials for those special watches. I for one like the limited editions. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
|
29 November 2020, 02:24 AM | #10 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Still nothing in the wild.
No incoming posts. Nothing on secondary market. Nothing at Omega Boutique. December is coming; if things stay this way and they release some Xmas pieces, the premium will be stable and at least 5K. I’m wondering how many customers are getting their deposits back. |
29 November 2020, 03:38 AM | #11 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
Why would they - it’s been less than 2 months. Unless they were just looking to flip. A few months between release and deliveries starting is normal. Factor the uncertainty with COVID in and it makes more sense. The consensus on the other forum is that Q1 is more likely.
Why so concerned with the premium? |
29 November 2020, 04:13 AM | #12 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Because we payed the watch in full, and given the situation and the production rate estimate, many customers will be required to wait more than 2 years.
So some physiological drop out will happen, for sure. I’m interested in monitoring flippers and the premium because if I’m waiting years to get a reference that I payed in full, I want it to retain the value. Having 10 K blocked on a piece that is dropping value on the secondary market will be crazy. I don’t think this scenario will happen, but I’d rather have as much information as possible on market, distribution and availability. |
29 November 2020, 04:46 AM | #13 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2011
Real Name: gus
Location: East Coast
Watch: APK & sometimes Y
Posts: 25,958
|
Compared to the previous snoopy, the new snoopy does not imho capture that special something.
It is a nice watch much like many of the previous Speedy anniversary offerings But not quite special in its magic as the previous snoopy. I would expect a modest premium at this time but not so certain about the value retention down the road? Off topic but I am also very interested in the predictions for the 321. There have been many strong opinions on this forum that the watch was over priced and the market will not support it.
__________________
|
29 November 2020, 05:26 AM | #14 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
Quote:
The 321 is a funny one. I think it’s gorgeous but in the small number of cases on the grey market so far they are not flying off the shelves. Retail is £12k and the first greys went up at £17k. There was no interest and at least 2 have dropped their ask to £15.5k with a private sale up for £14.5k The problem is that at that price point you need to be a serious omega/speedmaster fan to be contemplating buying one grey - even at retail it’s got stiff competition. It won’t have a broad enough fan base to trade a lot higher and many of those that would contemplate doing so would have a hard deal choosing this at £20k over a Daytona at the same price. In many ways, that’s why I think this snoopy is not the second coming. It’s the hype and pump and dump kids who keep bigging it up in the hope of easy cash like the last one. The reality is that in most cases if you keep value there or there abouts you’ll be doing quite well. |
|
29 November 2020, 05:38 AM | #15 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
Quote:
So if this watch doesn’t go up in the secondary, you don’t want it? Nothing wrong with that but What if it stays flat? |
|
29 November 2020, 06:01 AM | #16 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2011
Real Name: gus
Location: East Coast
Watch: APK & sometimes Y
Posts: 25,958
|
Quote:
I hadn’t noticed them on secondary, interesting experience there. Perhaps I am being a bit dense but I am convinced the 321 still needs soak in time for most to get its significance. I am of the opinion that in a years time the appreciation for the 321 will begin to take root among a broader audience of collectors. You also raise a good point about the choice between the Daytona vs the speedy. I agree the choice will go to the Daytona by a large majority. Even though the Daytona still will sell for significant amount more. Objectively looking at the two (black dial) side by side (both ~39mm), the speedy with new bracelet, movement and ceramic bezel holds its own and brings the famous speedy legibility.
__________________
|
|
29 November 2020, 06:18 AM | #17 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Quote:
My Omega associate told me they were expecting some dropping, but so far has been very limited. Now that we know that Covid is delaying everything, I guess that the ballpark delivery estimates that customers received will be impacted. I like the watch, so I will leave my full deposit. Of course I want the reference to hold its value (and actually get some appreciation). If the market gets flooded, I will not be wasting my money, I will get the watch from the secondary market at discount! Do you guys really think that Omega will release so many Snoopy 50? I bet production will be around 8000-10000 for the next 3 years. With this slow rate of production holding the value is definitely achievable. I also believe that this piece will have more demand than the A11. Furthermore the case back makes it the first Speedy with this complication. Increasing The collectibility, if numbers stay low. Keeping all in consideration, I believe it will hold value and actually have a decent premium. |
|
29 November 2020, 06:19 AM | #18 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
Quote:
In many ways, I’m half tempted to jump on one at a small premium. It’s a terrific piece, and according to my boutique I’m about 90th on the list! |
|
29 November 2020, 06:29 AM | #19 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
Quote:
I don’t think omega will totally flood with these, But 8-10k is a lot of watches and probably not a bad estimate. The Apollo 11 sold out pretty well and was an equally important anniversary for many, so they proved the market could take 7k. It is indeed possible as you say that this may have more demand than the Apollo - its a sportier and more fun watch which may appeal to the younger client base more than the more classic Apollo. Personally, I don’t think the caseback adds much apart from being a gimmick. I remember buying open backed watches, and after the first 2 days I never looked at the movement again. I could see the same happening here. But all told, I don’t think there’s any danger of this losing value in the short term. It’s longer term where as you mention people lose interest and they are still producing watches that they may have an issue. They would do well to fill the 7-8k watches in a year like they did the Apollo and strike while the iron is hot. |
|
29 November 2020, 06:33 AM | #20 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2011
Real Name: gus
Location: East Coast
Watch: APK & sometimes Y
Posts: 25,958
|
Quote:
I am optimistic the 321 (when it finally arrives) is going to have a place in my small collection. Get yours
__________________
|
|
29 November 2020, 06:58 AM | #21 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Quote:
So it’s very unlikely they will release more. They will maintain a similar rate (maybe a bit higher to make the people with deposits not to wait too long) for year 2 and 3. That’s why the realistic estimate in 3 years run is 8-10K. But I don’t see Omega making and releasing 7k watches on year 2. That would not make sense. Production rate should be very contained. Otherwise, the Snoopy will lose value. |
|
29 November 2020, 07:25 AM | #22 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
[QUOTE=Ringhio;11092918]I see your points. The only thing I don’t agree with is the “7-8K watches in a year”. They communicated the production rate for the first 12 months with 2000 pieces. Boutiques were given this number for the first year.
So it’s very unlikely they will release more. They will maintain a similar rate (maybe a bit higher to make the people with deposits not to wait too long) for year 2 and 3. That’s why the realistic estimate in 3 years run is 8-10K. But I don’t see Omega making and releasing 7k watches on year 2. That would not make sense. Production rate should be very contained. Otherwise, the Snoopy will lose value.[/ To be fair, they released 7k Apollo’s in one year, and it hasn’t done that any harm. As a 50th anniversary too, it would make sense to do it for this given it says it on the dial! The danger is that those who wait lose interest as omega will doubtless release something else which captures the imagination. But hey, let’s see. Will be interesting to see where it goes. |
29 November 2020, 07:38 AM | #23 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
[QUOTE=Stevec14;11092948]
Quote:
I don’t think anybody really cares about being the “50 anniversary” in terms of having it delivered not in the year of the anniversary. Look at the LV... it was a celebration for the 50 anniversary of the Sub in 2003. Still pretty hot today I would say. People getting the 50 anniversary celebratory piece 67 years after. Nobody cares about the incongruity. |
|
29 November 2020, 09:02 AM | #24 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 997
|
Quote:
The demand for the snoopy 50 will be much much much higher than the Apollo 11 50th. They made 1970 pieces for Snoopy 45, retails at $8k, sold out during Basel world release. Now sells for $40k+. OB deposits in the US closed the day after release. I was lucky enough to be on one with a full deposit. Multiple other ADs wouldn’t even put me on a wait list. I’ve heard the demand is surprisingly crazy in the Asian markets. Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong particularly. I’ve heard the waiting list at OBs in signature is at 4 digits. If they go on the high end of your estimate at 10k watches total, it still won’t satisfy all the demand. This will be nothing like the 321 or the Apollo 11 50. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
|
29 November 2020, 09:11 AM | #25 | |
Banned
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: uk
Posts: 496
|
Quote:
|
|
29 November 2020, 09:31 AM | #26 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: NYC
Posts: 469
|
Lol, agree.
Who cares about the LE? Way better a limited production! 116500LN better LE or LP? I don’t get why Omega should have infinite series of LE to make a reference appealing. That actually destroys the brand. I like that they are not doing this with the Snoopy 50th. It was a pretty clever move. Keep the number below 10k in 3 years, then reduce production even more and finally discontinue for the Snoopy 4... and we will all be happy campers! |
29 November 2020, 11:44 AM | #27 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 997
|
|
29 November 2020, 05:53 PM | #28 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
|
29 November 2020, 06:32 PM | #29 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: U.K.
Watch: 321, Snoopy 3
Posts: 4,399
|
Quote:
I think it will be quite similar to the Apollo in the long run and trade at a small premium - there will be far more of these (10k was your friend’s estimate) that the 45th and with so many speculators the market will have many more of these for sale I’d expect. I think in the long run that this will stop this sky rocketing, but I could be wrong of course. you are right it won’t be like the 321. That will be much harder to get than this. You are welcome to your view however as I am to mine. Let’s hope it works out for those who are banking on it rising in value. I’ll await the incomings |
|
30 November 2020, 12:52 AM | #30 |
Banned
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: uk
Posts: 496
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.