Will SD4K be sought after? Value appreciation?

[Ravager135]

The SD4K is not that rare. I'm sure in its life span thousands were made. Is it rare compared to how many black Submariners were produced, sure. It's no more rare than the LV Submariner in the sense that there aren't as many LVs produced for every LN. The only difference is the LV has a longer production life now. I don't think you can compare any modern Rolex to Comex dials, Paul Newmans, etc.

I personally loved the SD4K and almost got one over my 116610LV. I think the new model was made mainly to draw a harsher contrast from the Submariner. I'm personally not a fan of colored text on the dial and I think the lack of a cyclops was part of the models signature look. I can, however, appreciate the argument that the proportions seemed off on the SD4K. I still found it to be an incredible piece.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

The SD4K is not that rare. I'm sure in it's 5 year life span thousands were made. I personally loved the SD4K and almost got one over my 116610LV. I think the new model was made mainly to draw a harsher contrast from the Submariner. I'm personally not a fan of colored text on the dial and I think the lack of a cyclops was part of the models signature look. I can, however, appreciate the argument that the proportions seemed off on the SD4K. I still found it to be an incredible piece.

5 year say wha?

5 year say huh?

Read post #27, man. Or any other on the first page. The watch barely made two and a half years on the production cycle.

Don't know how many watches that equates to but I do know that even during that 30 months, it was a poor seller.

[marcotagudelo]

i am a SD4K owner, and i would like to think of it as being a "rare rolex" due to its "low production run"
but then what about the DatejustII and daydateII they fall in this same category.
at the end of the day this is all speculation.
yes it can be the last of the 40mm no cyclops, yes it had a stand alone case but at the end of the day it is all speculation.
this reminds me of "what if" comics by marvel jejejeje

[Glidelock]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

What's perceived about the shortage? There is no contrived rareity here. Relative to other Rolex', Rolex sport models, and even other iteration of the Sea Dwellers, the sdk40 (you heard it here first) is an odd bird and a light number piece.

That's just truth.

I saw the sdk40 at my ad and it was never not there when I was in. This is in the dc metro area. I asked the owner how long they've had that one and he couldn't tell me off the top of his head. But what he could tell me is that they've only sold two since 2014.

Ask your ad and I'm guessing it will not be appreciaibly different.

Extrapolate that across the ad network and, if you believe that Dc is not an anamoly, it was indeed a watch that sat, and the numbers were a fraction of similar sport models.

Again, only 2 of any type of Rolex steel sport model sold in 30 months at a large authorized dealer in one of the wealthiest counties in the United States is outrageous.

But extrapolation need not apply, I think the considerable changes that the sdk43 underwent and the discontinuation of the previous iteration tells the story quite well.

As someone said above, the watch has all the hallmarks of something that could have collector value, if nothing else, later. Anyone who says otherwise is reflexively using the word "Internet hype" because it always seems to fit these types of threads more so than they're actually looking, critically, at this watch on its own unique merits.

The watch has everything, functionally, that the new one that will be made for the next 5-7 years has except that its aesthetic characteristics (no magnifier and 40mm) is truer to the 1967 than the new version.

And the first ones didn't hit Ads in 2014 until June.
And they were ostensibly discontinued in November, 2016 (there were threads in late November saying "my ad said this watch can't be ordered and they've been told it's discontinued").
And for the math savy, that's about a 30 month run.
And it's done now. Pulled from the website. Decidedly in Rolex' rear view.
And it wasn't well received during that 30 months.
And it was too expensive relative to the watch it was compared against (submariner).
And despite the comparison, the sdk40 is a meaningfully better watch than the sub from the standpoint of it's articulated utility.
And, this watch that sat in display cases for 30 months, is characteristically different than both the watch that succeeded and the one preceded it (for the unitiated, I'm calling it an "outlier").

The issue with prognosticating this is we have to ask ourselves "what will the future collector want?" "What will be the desireable piece?"

And there is always guesswork to that.

I think, from my vantage point now, the sdk40 checks all the boxes.

Couldn't have said it better myself!

[VicLeChic]

Personally I think prices will carry on falling and eventually bottom out at 5K. No one wanted it during its short-lived lifespan (only 3 years!). Ten years down the road, who will prefer it to a more iconic Sub at 40mm? And who will prefer it to an anniversary edition at 43mm with a better movement? It was born dead and I see little chance of it resuscitating in a preowned market. If I had one, I would sell it now to make the most of the few disgruntled purist who dislike the new Red SD.

[Tri-National-Man]

Its going to be a future desirable classic for sure..That case, discontinued after 3 years..
I'm trying to find a stickered one now new and 2 ADs have told me they no longer can get one!!!!

[Shaky]

Well they seem to be getting bought up quite quickly on the used market. Just hacked several dealers I usually look at and oddly enough all of the SD4K pieces have mysteriously disappeared.

I honestly think that this watch will rise in value. It has everything going for it in that respect.

I bought a sub ND last year after having it side by side with the seadweller and a little bit of me now thinks I should have plummed for the seadweller, it would only be on paper as I wouldn't sell anyway.

Apparently AD reporting that the new SDk43 or whatever you want to call it has created the most interest after yesterday's announcement.

[kangajack]

Originally Posted by mdgrwl

Yes, it will be highly sought after. Not only for how rare it is, but also how perfect it is.



I can own any SS Rolex I'd like - and the only one I have is the SD4K 116600 - its pure perfection.

Unfortunately, more people didn't think like you. Instead, Rolex didn't sell enough of them and decided to redesign and reposition the watch.


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[Glidelock]

Originally Posted by mdgrwl

Yes, it will be highly sought after. Not only for how rare it is, but also how perfect it is.

I can own any SS Rolex I'd like - and the only one I have is the SD4K 116600 - its pure perfection.

Originally Posted by kangajack

Unfortunately, more people didn't think like you. Instead, Rolex didn't sell enough of them and decided to redesign and reposition the watch.


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I think you mean Fortunately, as we've got ours...did you get yours?

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

5 year say wha?

5 year say huh?

Read post #27, man. Or any other on the first page. The watch barely made two and a half years on the production cycle.

Don't know how many watches that equates to but I do know that even during that 30 months, it was a poor seller.

I edited my post probably right as you were responding. It wasn't five years (I was generalizing, then I realized someone would come along and literally count the months to make a rarity argument). A ton were still made. It's not rare. It's not a Comex. They can be had right now easily. They will still be readily attainable years from now on the secondary market with a hyped inflation. There is no modern Rolex, even one as short lived as the SD4K, that is rare. There are dial/bezel/bracelet Datejust combinations that are probably more rare during the same time period. It is a cool piece, absolutely. Did it have a short run, absolutely. Is it going to be worth a million 50 years from now. Nope.

Your AD analogy to extrapolate worldwide quantity is extremely flawed. My AD had them going in and out regularly (sometimes one was there, sometimes not) and I don't live in a city. I scouted this model for awhile and ultimately chose the 116610LV over it. Only Rolex knows the numbers. Even if there was 5,000 of them (which of course there are way more produced worldwide over 30 months), they aren't rare. I think we differ on the definition of rare.

[Ravager135]

I'll also make another argument. Do you see collectors clamoring for early edition ceramic stainless steel GMT-Master IIs? You know, the ones with the green lume instead of blue. The bracelet clasp might also have been little different like the early revised Daytona clasps. The reason the answer is no is because there were still thousands of them made. They are actually considered less desirable because they are "older" models and aren't rare.

I am not knocking an early edition ceramic GMT nor am I knocking the SD4K. Just because something had a short run doesn't make it rare or an investment.

[MCOSUB]

Originally Posted by omx5o

I just watched the last SD4K disappear from watchfinder.co.uk. They had about five last week.

DavidSW doesnt have any either

[Vipes]

I have the SD4K and it is one of the best divers, IMO. I don't think it will appreciate much even with the short production run. I'm happy if it will hold its value like other steel Rolexes.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by Vipes

I have the SD4K and it is one of the best divers, IMO. I don't think it will appreciate much even with the short production run. I'm happy if it will hold its value like other steel Rolexes.

It will. It's one of the best modern Rolex references period. I think the SD4K model is far truer to the spirit of the original model. I think the new offering is a nice evolution, but the SD4K, in my opinion, was a perfect Rolex. Steel Rolex will always hold its value more or less.

[jernigan78]

I own a SD4K. Never really gave much thought about selling it. And now that the new one has grown, and has a date magnification, theres no way in hell that im selling mine. Lol. A value increase would be nice, but doesnt really matter to me because I own this watch because I love it, and not because of value or popularity. Just my 2 cents.

[MyDadsAirKing]

Originally Posted by MCOSUB

DavidSW doesnt have any either

Bob's has one

[glg]

Wear your watch and enjoy it , what will happen tomorrow , nobody knows .
Seems that Rolex keeps value over the years , so no worries .


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[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

I'll also make another argument. Do you see collectors clamoring for early edition ceramic stainless steel GMT-Master IIs? You know, the ones with the green lume instead of blue. The bracelet clasp might also have been little different like the early revised Daytona clasps. The reason the answer is no is because there were still thousands of them made. They are actually considered less desirable because they are "older" models and aren't rare.

I am not knocking an early edition ceramic GMT nor am I knocking the SD4K. Just because something had a short run doesn't make it rare or an investment.

If your ad was selling one a week, then they would seem to be in the infinitesimally small, statistically insignificant, outlier minority of authorized dealers in my opinion.

But what do I know, I'm just a guy opining on the internet.

But this is what I do know. Stop me when this sounds familiar. Actually, just read page 1:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=173659

Is it completely analogous? No. That was a more popular watch and sold better. But it can be argued that that makes the sdk40 even more of a candidate for future collectibility. That notwithstanding, it's a data point that the "internet hype" intransigence never fails when there is a model that some feel may have collectibility value based on limited production.

It's just funny reading the naysayers and the rationales for a watch that's now selling for 2.5x its original retail only a handful of years later. The same criticisms and reasons why the watch won't be collectible that people articulated then, they are using here.

Seriously it's like plug and play.

[nikesupremedunk]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

I'll also make another argument. Do you see collectors clamoring for early edition ceramic stainless steel GMT-Master IIs? You know, the ones with the green lume instead of blue. The bracelet clasp might also have been little different like the early revised Daytona clasps. The reason the answer is no is because there were still thousands of them made. They are actually considered less desirable because they are "older" models and aren't rare.

I am not knocking an early edition ceramic GMT nor am I knocking the SD4K. Just because something had a short run doesn't make it rare or an investment.

I'll add to that, the "smurf" tt bluesy. Personally I love the flat blue and they aren't as common as the sunburst, but they don't go for any more.

I can see the SD4K holding its value at $7-8k but to even go for over its original msrp will take a looooong time, if at all. The ones that bought the watch because they liked it seem very content and don't seem to care about resale. But if you bought the watch mostly due to it's potential future resale you might be disappointed later on.

[pearson1995]

I posted this a few weeks ago... most people on here disagreed. However I stand by my original prediction that it will be. Although, it may take a long time.

[simongpaez]

Originally Posted by mdgrwl

Yes, it will be highly sought after. Not only for how rare it is, but also how perfect it is.

I can own any SS Rolex I'd like - and the only one I have is the SD4K 116600 - its pure perfection.

I have to quote you on this, for me it "was" the perfect Rolex

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by nikesupremedunk

I'll add to that, the "smurf" tt bluesy. Personally I love the flat blue and they aren't as common as the sunburst, but they don't go for any more.

I can see the SD4K holding its value at $7-8k but to even go for over its original msrp will take a looooong time, if at all. The ones that bought the watch because they liked it seem very content and don't seem to care about resale. But if you bought the watch mostly due to it's potential future resale you might be disappointed later on.

Another great analogy. That's exactly my point. We have a ton of subtle variations among modern models but they never really command premiums because there are so many out there. I do think the SD4K will increase a little in value especially in the short term. Long term, it will never be rare.

[presario]

Originally Posted by nikesupremedunk

I'll add to that, the "smurf" tt bluesy. Personally I love the flat blue and they aren't as common as the sunburst, but they don't go for any more.

I can see the SD4K holding its value at $7-8k but to even go for over its original msrp will take a looooong time, if at all. The ones that bought the watch because they liked it seem very content and don't seem to care about resale. But if you bought the watch mostly due to it's potential future resale you might be disappointed later on.

Originally Posted by Ravager135

Another great analogy. That's exactly my point. We have a ton of subtle variations among modern models but they never really command premiums because there are so many out there. I do think the SD4K will increase a little in value especially in the short term. Long term, it will never be rare.

Are those subtle variations you're talking about as iconic or have a cult following like the Sea Dweller has? A model that was overengineered and available only in steel? I would say that the bluesy is not even close.

Those analogies are not very accurate IMO.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by presario

Are those subtle variations you're talking about as iconic or have a cult following like the Sea Dweller has? A model that was overengineered and available only in steel? I would say that the bluesy is not even close.

Those analogies are not very accurate IMO.

You're misunderstanding the analogies. It has nothing to do with the model. It has to do with the numbers produced. The reason those aforementioned analogies apply are because there were plenty of those "variations" in existence such that nothing about them makes them rare (just like the SD4K). Let's take it a step further. A Comex Submariner is also a variation. It isn't a separate model. It commands a serious premium because of its rarity. So yes, even subtle variations on well established models can command premiums if they are actually rare.

Almost all Rolex models are icons in some way. Almost everything you attribute to the SD4K you could say about the black dial non-GV Milgauss. It's an old model. The Milgauss was discontinued for awhile before coming back. It came back. One of the dials has since been discontinued. I don't think a black dial non-GV Milgauss is commanding a giant premium.

None of this has anything to do with SD4K hate. Quite the contrary. I love the reference; almost got one myself recently. The only point to be made is that they aren't rare. Will it become slightly harder to get? Sure. May the price even go up in the short term? Sure. But there's plenty of examples and that alone will always keep the asking price tamed. No one knows the exact number of Sea Dwellers made. What I can assure you is that it is a mass produced watch sold the world over for two and a half years.

[sakets_2000]

I wonder when my newly bought sub date get rare :)


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[swils8610]

Happy I bought mine BNIB in Aug of 2014. It's not rare. Rolex made thousands of them. Less common perhaps. It will maintain value IMHO. 40 years from now will it be worth more than I paid for it? Sure. It's not an investment though. It is funny there are none for sale here currently...


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[DCGuy1965]

There've been several threads on this and needless to say it's a hell of a debate. I'm thankful I bought my SD4K in November and my nice AD gave me 10% off. Love it and no plans to sell whatsoever. I mean if someone were insane enough to offer stupid cash I'd reconsider but I'm not looking to do anything of the sort.

That being said I think the TRF trusted sellers pulled their ads and are sitting on the sidelines to see what happens. Kind of like what the PM dealers do when prices tank. Also as for collectibility if I recall the original Milgauss was in the early 70s went for maybe 2-300 new. If and only if you can find one? Get ready to pay 20-25K. No joke. So the irony is these unpopular short production runs can be an appreciating collectable. Not banking my financial future on it but if it happens so be it.

[LuminousMaximus]

Originally Posted by padi56

Doubtful but as soon as the internet makes them the must have greatest thing since sliced bread, thinks could change mainly for the internet hype collector.

[mrecho]

I would sell my SD4K in a heartbeat for 7800.00....and put that towards the new one.

[G'ed]

I bought mine brand new for $7100 with 5 yrs warranty.

Will it be sought after? No one know.

Will I lose money? Definitely no (unless I trashed it)