Will SD4K be sought after? Value appreciation?

[hoppejung]

Now that Rolex has pulled off SD4K from its official website. Will it be sought after? Value increase, maybe?

What do you think?

[padi56]

Originally Posted by hoppejung

Now that Rolex has pulled off SD4K from its official website. Will it be sought after? Value increase, maybe?

What do you think?

Doubtful but as soon as the internet makes them the must have greatest thing since sliced bread, thinks could change mainly for the internet hype collector.

[glg]

The same as all rolexes, the new sd will increase value over the years , same the previous one , will keep its value and maybe increase a little . I believe Rolex look after the older watches , want them to keep value .
Some believe that due to short production of sd4k, only three years , will be hard to find and therefore will increase great value


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[omx5o]

I just watched the last SD4K disappear from watchfinder.co.uk. They had about five last week.

[brandrea]

I'll let you know in 50 years

[glg]

Also consider that the sd4k would be the last 40mm sd, the last with date and no cyclops, the last with the 3135, the last with 20mm lugs etc etc


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[Sublovin]

It has the makings of a collectible...
Short production run, poor sales, low popularity when new...
I think it would take quite a while, but it may become sought after.

[Smarties]

There're always people trying to profit from a recently discontinued Rolex.

Will SD4000 appreciate in value? Maybe, but it would take quite some time......

[Brisman]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

It has the makings of a collectible...
Short production run, poor sales, low popularity when new...
I think it would take quite a while, but it may become sought after.

Totally agree on this.
History has proven this is the case.
In modern times, this is a production run way less than the 50th Anniversary Sub, its going to be a collectable.

[Sailaway68]

I suppose a short term blip is to be expected as 'ditherers' who were considering buying prior to details of the new reference grab one whilst they can, and speculators pick one up whilst the news is fresh. Difficult to know how many are in the pipelines in transition but I will watch with interest how the prices are affected as the new ref. arrives. For casual buyers one might imagine a preference to the new model.....

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by padi56

Doubtful but as soon as the internet makes them the must have greatest thing since sliced bread, thinks could change mainly for the internet hype collector.

Agree 100%. The only reason they will go up is a perceived shortage on the internet market place. It's a shame really. I think it's the same reason the 16710 have gone up so much.

[psv]

The SD4K had one of the poorer 2nd hand value of the modern ss sport watches. The list was what? $10,400? It sold mint used for $7,000 - $7,500?

I don't think it will appreciate much, at least not for a long time, but prices will stabilize at $7,500 - $8,000 instead.

This is all pure semi-informed speculation, of course.

[kilyung]

Ygiagam

[Dr.Brian]

Well, I could buy 10 SDs for ~100k or I could buy a small rental condo by the university for cash for about the same and collect checks. Which do you think will be a better investment for me in 10 years time? You think people will be paying 20k+ for an old style SD? Is there really anything collectible about it?
I know where I'm putting my money. And it's not going to fit in the safe.

[SubMarine]

Owners of SD4Ks are not posting fast enough, but I feel that the opposite will happen. SD4K prices will tank.

[HoustonRoo]

Originally Posted by SubMarine

Owners of SD4Ks are not posting fast enough, but I feel that the opposite will happen. SD4K prices will tank.

Perhaps in an alternate universe. Supply and demand... the shortest production run in Rolex history makes the SD4K more rare than a 50th Anniversary Sub for example.

An items rarity doesn't normally result in price drops.

[Danny83]

Maybe in 5 years it would be worth 12k or so its possible

[mdgrwl]

Yes, it will be highly sought after. Not only for how rare it is, but also how perfect it is.

I can own any SS Rolex I'd like - and the only one I have is the SD4K 116600 - its pure perfection.

[scarabei]

If you think of making money on SD4K, your money would be better spent in S&P 500 index fund.


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[Ferdelious]

Originally Posted by rushca01

Agree 100%. The only reason they will go up is a perceived shortage on the internet market place. It's a shame really. I think it's the same reason the 16710 have gone up so much.

But you're comparing the 16710 that was produced for almost 20 years to a watch with a 2 1/2 year production run. There truly might be a shortage of the Sea-Dweller. Seems like most of the people that own it are WIS and want to hold on to it now that is has been discontinued.

[JP(Canada)]

Several value discussions on this forum and others. I think if you have one and are thinking of selling, you'll get what you paid for it and perhaps a small increase over that for a year or two. I do not think that it'll break any value records as a modern discontinued Rolex.

I'm just going to keep wearing mine and enjoying it til I tire of it and then flip mine for whatever the going fair market value seems to be at.

[Glidelock]

Originally Posted by SubMarine

Owners of SD4Ks are not posting fast enough, but I feel that the opposite will happen. SD4K prices will tank.

Originally Posted by HoustonRoo

Perhaps in an alternate universe. Supply and demand... the shortest production run in Rolex history makes the SD4K more rare than a 50th Anniversary Sub for example.

An items rarity doesn't normally result in price drops.

Hold on there Mathew, maybe this guys onto something?

Wait...did I say "onto" something? I meant to say On something!

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by Ferdelious

But you're comparing the 16710 that was produced for almost 20 years to a watch with a 2 1/2 year production run. There truly might be a shortage of the Sea-Dweller. Seems like most of the people that own it are WIS and want to hold on to it now that is has been discontinued.

Regarding the 16710. I'm referring to a specific production range, lug holes and Swiss made dials. Those years for the 16710 have sky rocketed in asking price and I think it's largely due internet hype.

[AK797]

I think there will be a cynical grab, D500 style, to maximise profits and I hope most people are internet savvy not to be taken in and let greedy sellers inflate this market. As supply will have ceased up for this it will trade at a decent premium to genuine buyers in the future once the vultures have gone away.

[Devildog]

I'd say possibly. But I'd also venture that mint or BNIB 16600s will appreciate more.

[guy369]

It will take time, and the prices will fall in the short term, I am contemplating trading up from my Sub-c and know in 10+ years I will have a watch worth a lot more than I paid for it...But I can't talk myself into doing it

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by rushca01

Agree 100%. The only reason they will go up is a perceived shortage on the internet market place. It's a shame really. I think it's the same reason the 16710 have gone up so much.

What's perceived about the shortage? There is no contrived rareity here. Relative to other Rolex', Rolex sport models, and even other iteration of the Sea Dwellers, the sdk40 (you heard it here first) is an odd bird and a light number piece.

That's just truth.

I saw the sdk40 at my ad and it was never not there when I was in. This is in the dc metro area. I asked the owner how long they've had that one and he couldn't tell me off the top of his head. But what he could tell me is that they've only sold two since 2014.

Ask your ad and I'm guessing it will not be appreciaibly different.

Extrapolate that across the ad network and, if you believe that Dc is not an anamoly, it was indeed a watch that sat, and the numbers were a fraction of similar sport models.

Again, only 2 of any type of Rolex steel sport model sold in 30 months at a large authorized dealer in one of the wealthiest counties in the United States is outrageous.

But extrapolation need not apply, I think the considerable changes that the sdk43 underwent and the discontinuation of the previous iteration tells the story quite well.

As someone said above, the watch has all the hallmarks of something that could have collector value, if nothing else, later. Anyone who says otherwise is reflexively using the word "Internet hype" because it always seems to fit these types of threads more so than they're actually looking, critically, at this watch on its own unique merits.

The watch has everything, functionally, that the new one that will be made for the next 5-7 years has except that its aesthetic characteristics (no magnifier and 40mm) is truer to the 1967 than the new version.

And the first ones didn't hit Ads in 2014 until June.
And they were ostensibly discontinued in November, 2016 (there were threads in late November saying "my ad said this watch can't be ordered and they've been told it's discontinued").
And for the math savy, that's about a 30 month run.
And it's done now. Pulled from the website. Decidedly in Rolex' rear view.
And it wasn't well received during that 30 months.
And it was too expensive relative to the watch it was compared against (submariner).
And despite the comparison, the sdk40 is a meaningfully better watch than the sub from the standpoint of it's articulated utility.
And, this watch that sat in display cases for 30 months, is characteristically different than both the watch that succeeded and the one preceded it (for the unitiated, I'm calling it an "outlier").

The issue with prognosticating this is we have to ask ourselves "what will the future collector want?" "What will be the desireable piece?"

And there is always guesswork to that.

I think, from my vantage point now, the sdk40 checks all the boxes.

[Joemannnnn]

I'm newer to the Rolex world, having bought my first last year. It happens to be an SD4k and I love it. Not concerned about any appreciation or not, it's not going anywhere. But the discontinuation has me wondering about service down the road. Will Rolex have crystals, bezels, etc for the discontinued watch should the need arise?

[Ferdelious]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

What's perceived about the shortage? There is no contrived rareity here. Relative to other Rolex', Rolex sport models, and even other iteration of the Sea Dwellers, the sdk40 (you heard it here first) is an odd bird and a light number piece.

That's just truth.

I saw the sdk40 at my ad and it was never not there when I was in. This is in the dc metro area. I asked the owner how long they've had that one and he couldn't tell me off the top of his head. But what he could tell me is that they've only sold two since 2014.

Ask your ad and I'm guessing it will not be appreciaibly different.

Extrapolate that across the ad network and, if you believe that Dc is not an anamoly, it was indeed a watch that sat, and the numbers were a fraction of similar sport models.

Again, only 2 of any type of Rolex steel sport model sold in 30 months at a large authorized dealer in one of the wealthiest counties in the United States is outrageous.

But extrapolation need not apply, I think the considerable changes that the sdk43 underwent and the discontinuation of the previous iteration tells the story quite well.

As someone said above, the watch has all the hallmarks of something that could have collector value, if nothing else, later. Anyone who says otherwise is reflexively using the word "Internet hype" because it always seems to fit these types of threads more so than they're actually looking, critically, at this watch on its own unique merits.

The watch has everything, functionally, that the new one that will be made for the next 5-7 years has except that its aesthetic characteristics (no magnifier and 40mm) is truer to the 1967 than the new version.

And the first ones didn't hit Ads in 2014 until June.
And they were ostensibly discontinued in November, 2016 (there were threads in late November saying "my ad said this watch can't be ordered and they've been told it's discontinued").
And for the math savy, that's about a 30 month run.
And it's done now. Pulled from the website. Decidedly in Rolex' rear view.
And it wasn't well received during that 30 months.
And it was too expensive relative to the watch it was compared against (submariner).
And despite the comparison, the sdk40 is a meaningfully better watch than the sub from the standpoint of it's articulated utility.
And, this watch that sat in display cases for 30 months, is characteristically different than both the watch that succeeded and the one preceded it (for the unitiated, I'm calling it an "outlier").

The issue with prognosticating this is we have to ask ourselves "what will the future collector want?" "What will be the desireable piece?"

And there is always guesswork to that.

I think, from my vantage point now, the sdk40 checks all the boxes.

Well put.

[LitzDoc]

Originally Posted by Dr.Brian

Well, I could buy 10 SDs for ~100k or I could buy a small rental condo by the university for cash for about the same and collect checks. Which do you think will be a better investment for me in 10 years time? You think people will be paying 20k+ for an old style SD? Is there really anything collectible about it?
I know where I'm putting my money. And it's not going to fit in the safe.

Agreed. I did exactly that. Bought a condo when my daughter went to college in Boston. Already paying dividends. Watches are expenses not investments.


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